So as Markos said, Obama is winning. Period. But I have a feeling the Republicans believe that their money, their billion dollar negative ad rollout, will turn things around. It won't. Here's why.
First of all, negative ads hurt favorables. Mitt Romney is already upside down in that department and frankly, the more people see of him, the worse his favorables become. If people already don't like you and don't trust you, negative ads only harm the one airing them. Especially if the target of the ads is well liked, as our President is.
I believe that their strategy is to roll these ads out after labor day and reach a deafening crescendo by early October. That's a bad strategy for more reasons than I'm listing here in this diary, but if they're too dumb to figure that out, I ain't telling.
Second of all, regardless of when they roll them out, Obama will USE the barrage of ads to his great advantage. His populist message is coming across loud and clear and voters nationwide understand it, as the most recent swing state polling shows. It's a simple, elegant, common sense message that contrasts perfectly with the opponent who has a record of profiting from American job losses, holds his vast fortunes offshore in secret accounts and refuses to release his tax returns. And...AND who is bankrolled by a handful of billionaires.
Now if I'm Obama, I'm looking forward to the barrage of ads. Because the thing speaks for itself.
Our president will (again) position himself as an underdog, a fighter, a scrapper, the people's champion. It'll be Rocky Balboa vs. Apollo Creed (not really - Romney's never actually fought or won anything in his life but stay with me here). It'll be David against Goliath. The president will simply say "Look at all those billionaires on Romney's side trying to take me out, to take us out. Know why? Because he's THEIR guy. They know if he's elected, he'll look out for them. And if that happens, guess who gets left behind? YOU DO. That's why they're spending a BILLION DOLLARS to defeat me. Because I am going to fight for YOU, the middle class. I;m going to look out for YOU and THEY are going to pay their fair share and we're going to turn this economy around."
This is easy stuff. Really.
Everyone like a fighter. Everyone likes a winner. Nobody likes a bully. Nobody likes someone who feels entitled. Americans may not be the smartest folks in the world but some things are just obvious. Like the president's populist message, this is just another obvious and common sense message.
So I say, BRING ON THE NEGATIVE ADS, you fucking morons. Make the president's case for him. Amplify it. Go on. Spend your way into a landslide defeat. I welcome it. Because it's going to really fuck with their heads when they realize the billion dollar ad strategy isn't working. That it's being used effectively against them.
Their only back up plan is voter disenfranchisement in a very close race. This race will not be close. Not by November. The ad campaign will backfire and backlash on them. It won't be close.
And on the night that Romney is hugely and spectacularly defeated after spending a billion dollars trying to "take out the black guy", I will rejoice mightily that not only must Romney publicly concede his defeat, but he will realize, perhaps for the first time in his life, that money cannot buy EVERYTHING. Not the Presidency, and not our democracy. It will be a great night for America.