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While Jeff Flake fights a primary battle again Wil Cardon, Richard Carmona has been sitting unopposed, waiting. The battle is to replace Jon Kyl, who is retiring. The latest Public Policy Polling poll from the end of July shows that the battle between Flake and Cardon has really tightened the race... between Flake and Carmona.

If the candidates for Senate were Democrat
Richard Carmona and Republican Jeff Flake,
who would you vote for?

Richard Carmona 38%

Jeff Flake 38%

Undecided 25%

The two are tied, with a quarter of the electorate undecided. Last month, Flake led Carmona 43-41, with only 16% undecided. Showing that the highly negative campaign between Cardon and Flake has caused significant damage to Flake.

(More after the squiggle)

The polling gets really interesting when we look at favorability. Jeff Flake is not well liked.

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Flake?

Favorable 30%

Unfavorable 37%

Not sure 33%

The polling also shows that the majority of the electorate doesn't know Carmona, at all.
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Richard Carmona?

Favorable 16%

Unfavorable 20%

Not sure 64%

So, despite not having much of an opinion of Carmona at all, 38% said they would vote for him, which shows just how much they dislike Flake.

I believe once voters get to know Carmona they will want to vote for him. For more information on him, please read my diary from a couple of months ago.

This race isn't getting a lot of attention nationally, or within the dKos community. I hope that changes, soon.  There is a good chance, with more support, that AZ could send a Democratic senator to Washington to replace Jon Kyl. That could mean a significant shift in the balance of power.

To find out more about Richard Carmona or to get involved with the campaign, go here.

Originally posted to Posh (and not so Posh) Thoughts on Fri Aug 03, 2012 at 03:46 PM PDT.

Also republished by Baja Arizona Kossacks and BlueAZ.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Pushing Carmona hard here in Arizonastan! (9+ / 0-)

    Oh how I will laugh! Long, hard, and loud.

    There will be some pointing with the laughter, too.

    Romney 2012 - You will be assimilated. Resistance is futile.

    by Fordmandalay on Fri Aug 03, 2012 at 04:03:12 PM PDT

  •  Carmona should be on the air with identity ads... (6+ / 0-)

    Carmona needs to get on the air defining who he is and what he has done, some nice statesman like ads, while Flake & Cardon continue to sling mud at each other.

    A mind like a book, has to be open to function properly.

    by falconer520 on Fri Aug 03, 2012 at 04:32:09 PM PDT

    •  Yeah, I agree (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      elwior, FrugalGranny, Sue B

      64% of the electorate has no opinion of him at all. This is a great opportunity to change that. Neither Flake nor Cardon are going to spend campaign dollars against him right now.

      •  I haven't seen anything in the Phx area... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ThatPoshGirl, Vita Brevis

        I haven't heard or seen a single ad in Phx, not sure what he is waiting for... Now is the time to spend those dollars defining himself, before the GOP attack machine can swing their cannons around. Because have no doubt whoever wins the GOP primary is going to come out swinging, and with more money than we can possibly come up with...

        This is really an easy call, a low cost positive meet the candidate, Carmona ad sandwiched between two Flake/Cardon attack ads would really boost his favorables.

        A mind like a book, has to be open to function properly.

        by falconer520 on Fri Aug 03, 2012 at 05:12:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Only thing I can figure... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ThatPoshGirl, wu ming

          Is he's hoping Cardon wins.  So he keeps a low profile so GOP Primary voters think the GE will be a coronation if their Primary Pick and feel comfortable enough to then pick the furthest right wing nut. If Carmona was seen as a threat, then they might have rallied around Flake already, and Flake could have then fired back at Carmona and ignored Cardon rather than having to spend his fundraising money blasting away at the self-funder Cardon.  

          Flake will have to be pretty much broke come the end of the primary so if Carmona hits the air right after the primary he might have a window where he can get on the air without any pushback.

        •  Well, he has relatively limited funds (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ThatPoshGirl, Azazello, Woody, AZ1958

          at this point. I just read some of the news articles posted on the campaign website, and although he did out-fundraise Flake in the 2nd quarter, he still has significantly less cash on hand than either of the republicans. So they do have to conserve funds for the general election.

          It looks like he is doing a lot of public events, and racking up endorsements, including from sheriffs across the state, so he's not sitting around doing nothing. TV ads are not really the best use of money right now, IMO. There will time for that once the primary is over and we know who his opponent is. Everyone knows it will probably be Jeff Flake but right now they are bloodying each other up pretty bad, while he is running unopposed.

          This is all so much better than the last senate race against McCain when Arizona dems made a complete mess of it, running too many candidates in the primary and nominating a useless idiot who handed the seat back to McCain on a silver platter basically. I was so disgusted with it all... ugh.

          But Carmona -- although he is not 'exciting' from the perspective of being a great progressive candidate, he is someone who can win in Arizona, and he was personally recruited to run by President Obama. Everyone is strongly united to support him. I think he is going to be a very strong candidate. His bio is pretty amazing.

          I don't think there is an urgent need for him to spend money on TV ads right now. Look at the way this race has closed up in the polls already. I am getting kind of excited about this senate race this time, because I think it's very winnable. I am motivated to make a donation to his campaign, to help get some ads on the air soon, so more voters can get to know him.  

          •  Let's hope the Repubs keep spending (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ThatPoshGirl, CS in AZ

            No doubt they can get more dirty money where their current stash came from. But if the Repubs are more or less broke the day after the primary, they will need time for the new checks to clear. That would let Carmona go on air and have a week or two without clutter from the competition.

        •  No really (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ThatPoshGirl, PSzymeczek

          When people start to tune out political ads because they are too loud, too frequent, too annoying, then they tune out ALL political ads. Carmona's soft let-me-introduce-myself ads would be lost in the Repub shitstorm.

          His time to go on air is AFTER the Repub primary. The Repubs will need at least a few days to replenish their accounts and cut new ads not aimed at each other. That quiet time will be the golden hour for Carmona to politely introduce himself.

  •  it would sure be nice to have this and (4+ / 0-)

    another current Republican seat (i.e. Indiana) flip to a Democrat. That would sure help dampen Republican plans to turn over control of our entire federal government to a few corrupt billionaires.

  •  Carmona needs to be on the air NOW! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ThatPoshGirl, Vita Brevis

    He could have bio pieces galore and define himself before Flake and the GOP machine starts defining him.  I can't believe he's content to keep his head down and wait for a GE challenger.  

    Unless he wants to seem unthreatening to the Az GOP voter so they feel comfortable enough potentially going with Cardon thinking Carmona will be a non-entity push over for whichever GOP candidate wins the primary.  Maybe if Carmona was out looking like a strong candidate, the GOP base might figure they better stop screwing around and rally around Flake.  

    •  Not now, later (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      No point in Carmona putting ads on now while the Repubs are having their little fuss fest. His message could get crowded out, or voters could get confused about who is who!

      He can start the week after the Repub nominee is selected, when his positive, get-to-know-me, biographical ads will not be lost in the dust-up.

  •  Carmona would be a superb pick-up (4+ / 0-)

    and if Donnelly can win Indiana it'll be a very good year for Democrats.

    "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

    by Andrew C White on Fri Aug 03, 2012 at 05:48:38 PM PDT

  •  This is welcome news (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ThatPoshGirl, Woody

    I spent three weeks in AZ and thought I'd go mad from the incessant Flake vs Cardon ads. Honestly one right after the other and then back to back again in between that annoying lady singing  "Summertime...." while shilling mattresses.

    I think Flake will beat Cardon although they're both insufferable and batshit crazy.

    We view "The Handmaid's Tale" as cautionary. The GOP views it as an instruction book.

    by Vita Brevis on Fri Aug 03, 2012 at 05:53:20 PM PDT

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