Many on here get wrapped up about polls and it is good conversation, but the reality is that polls are a snapshot of the moment.
National polls which these cable desk clerks always shout about means nothing right now. I do not start looking nationally until 4 weeks out of the election. Right now, these national polls do not mean much.
On the other hand, the state by state polls need to be taken seriously. This is how you win a presidential election, one state at a time, which is why Mitt Romney and Company need to be very worried right now.
kos was right, the polling data is right and consistent, Pennsylvania is off the table. But the open secret is out there, but you will not get it from the mainstream media, because they are in the business of ratings and making money.
First, let’s discuss Pennsylvania. There has been good reason for Democrats to sweat this state. True, Obama won it handily in 2008, by 10 points. But it’s a state that is older and whiter and more working-class than most of America. Obama benefited from all the unique circumstances of 2008 that helped him across the country, but if ever there were a state where the “well, we gave the black guy a chance and he blew it” meme might catch on, it’s the Keystone State.That states much there.
But the jobless rate there is 7.5 percent, well below the national average. Democratic voter registration has held its own. The Philly suburbs have grown. And this odious voter ID law is facing meaningful challenges. A hearing on the law’s validity has just been concluded. A state judge says he’ll rule on the law’s constitutionality the week of Aug. 13. It sounds as if the law’s opponents made a stronger case at the hearing than its supporters. In any case, the losing side will appeal to the state Supreme Court.
But whatever happens with that law, Pennsylvania has been trending back toward Obama lately. He now holds a lead there of nearly seven points, and he’s close to 50. And as I wrote the other day, Nate Silver now gives Barack Obama a slightly better chance of winning Montana than he does Romney of winning Pennsylvania. That tells you something.
The bottom line is that Mitt Romney is not leading in many of the swing states, he is behind. All the polling is consistent with this.
The list of states where Obama holds that narrow but consistent lead is long: Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Michigan and Wisconsin are no longer really narrow. Florida is more or less a dead heat. The bottom line is that of the dozen or so key swing states, Romney leads only in one: North Carolina. And that lead developed only over the summer. We’ll see whether the Democrats’ decision to convene in Charlotte has any impact on Romney’s three-point margin.The second problem for the Romney Campaign is its slow response to the pressure and effective ads the Obama Campaign has put out, so far, this summer. The ad where Romney sings America the Beautiful, is up there as one of the most effective ads in a presidential campaign. This ad singularly wraps up who Mitt Romney really is. The ad is devastatingly true.
Thus comes the continuous questions of Romney’s taxes. He played an effective duck and move until former boxer, Harry Reid stepped in the ring. Romney and Company did not know what hit them until Reid went public and viral with the claim that a good, solid source told him Romney did not pay taxes for 10 years. A claim he is not backing down from and made national news from the Senate Floor.
Sure, Romney is whining that he paid a lot of taxes, that Reid is wrong, etc. The bottom line is that if you paid a lot in taxes, show the taxes. But he will not, why? Listen to Van Jones on the morning joe show yesterday, he gave the best answer as WHY Romney and Company will NEVER show his taxes. (his part starts at the 4:15 mark)
Did you get that? So, this albatross will be with Romney until election and will not only hurt him, but the WHOLE Republican Party.
Lastly, read what conservatives in IOWA think about Mitt Romney. Clearly, this is why Romney has not been able to pivot to the middle. They don’t like him, trust him, feels he is an elitist and is not strong enough.
“He just doesn’t seem to connect well, and I’m not sure he’s a strong enough candidate, to be very, very honest,” said Steve Boender, a farmer here in southeast Iowa who supported Rick Santorum in the state caucus. “I’m probably going to hold my nose and vote for him,” Mr. Boender added, “but I’m afraid there are a fair amount of people that will” sit on their hands.and this...
Christopher Huston, an optometrist in nearby Pella, said patients tell him they prefer Mr. Romney to the president but without enthusiasm. “A lot will vote for Romney by default,” he said. “Whether he can get people excited enough to get in their vehicles and come up and vote is the story.”need more? this....
“When he does come to Iowa and puts on a pair of bluejeans and flannel shirt, the poor guy looks as stiff as a hedge post.”Thanks to the Obama Campaign, who understood that they HAD TO DEFINE MITT ROMNEY, before he could lie and define his fake self. This is why Obama just may win in a landslide, too much shit for Romney to refute because he just can not without being destroyed. Including Mitt Romney stuffing 100M in an IRA account, which is against the law!!!
One of his sons, Kurt, 23, said he might choose a third-party candidate. He disliked Mr. Romney’s “liberal past” when he favored abortion rights and signed an assault weapons ban as Massachusetts governor, positions Mr. Romney repudiated long ago.
“I don’t see a major change unless it’s convenient for him,” Kurt Boender said.