Let's start with Colorado, where President Obama is stumping for the next two days. Quinnipiac says Romney 50-45%. But as ESPN's Lee Corso says, 'Not so fast, my friend!'
Here is the age breakdown in the CO poll:
Here is the 2008 exit poll from CO (national breakdown):
18-29: 14% (18)
30-44: 33% (29)
45-64: 39% (37)
65+: 13% (16)
Q puts Obama up 15 points among voters under 45, but shrinks the Obama base from 47 to
29% 34% of the electorate. Oh, and just for fun, they tripled more than doubled seniors.
Very poor--and inaccurate--poll.
The Virginia and Wisconsin (again, only 34% under 45!) internals also skewed older, but to a lesser degree. Why is Obama ahead, then?
This: Do the candidates care about your needs and problems?
Fifty-nine and 57% say Obama does. Only 44 and 41% say the same about Romney. Mitt Romney's not the solution; he's the problem. The voters tend to agree.
That is the link to the graphic displaying the data among likely voters. In both CO and WI, only 34% of the survey is under 45. In VA it's only 40%. The graphic only shows two age groups (+/-45). Of course--as the data shows above--47% of the 2008 electorate was under 45.
There is a reason that the Times waited to the end of the article to actually tell us the topline numbers!
Jackie Calmes has a piece about Obama's swing through Colorado, in which she repeatedly references the Q CO poll and how Obama's weaker with women, on the economy, etc. than in other battleground states. She forgot to mention how Colorado has seemingly embraced #romneyshambles, as voters there by nine points prefer Romney on national security--a complete reversal from the other NYT/Q polls.
Maybe it's because Quinnipiac massively over-sampled seniors. Or maybe Coloradans fell in love with Rafalca...