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Over at 538, Nate Silver has a prediction of the percentage odds for Barack Obama's re-election. He charts the day to day variation of running his model.

When he began running his model on May 31, President Obama's chances for re-election were rated at 63.7%. The next day a batch of polls came out and the chance dropped to 59.5%, and on June 2nd the odds dropped to 59.0%; in horse race parlance, 3:2.

That was the worst day. The percentage chance of an Obama victory has climbed, with good days and bad, to a current rating of 72.5%. The trend has not been in Romney's favor, not at all.

Now unless you are inclined to trust Dick Morris (if so, why?) that there are super-secret polls that are better than all the published ones showing a Romney lead, I think that Team Romney has got to be a little nervous right about now.

Just as John McCain was getting a little nervous in August 2008, when he went with his fighter pilot's gut and unleashed the horror that is Snow Snooki™ upon us all.

Per the Real Clear Politics average of polls, on this date in 2008 Obama led McCain by 3.6%. Today, per the same site, Obama leads Romney by 3.4%.

So ... the trend is not Romney's friend. His deficit in the polls, and in momentum, is similar to that experienced by McCain. Will he try for a game changer with his VP pick? Because if he can't change the subject away from his gaffe-a-thon campaign very soon, he will be waiting for Obama to make a serious mistake. Good luck with that, Willard.

Having said this, I went and looked at which VP rumor mill candidates are experiencing Wikipedia editing.
Portman: yes
Jindal: yes
Ryan: yes
Pawlenty: yes
Christie: yes
McDonnell: no
Martinez: no

No sane person would expect T-Paw or Portman to be a game changer.
So: Jindal, Ryan, or Christie.

The fact that the WSJ editorialized in favor of Ryan indicates that Murdoch thinks Ryan needs help ... and I suspect he knows fairly well what is going on in the Romney camp.

So, speculating wildly: Jindal. Christie has already been given a plum speaking role at the convention.

Your mileage may vary, and I admit this is wild speculation, but if it does happen, you will all have to bow before my superlative punditosity.


Portman told CNNhe doesn't expect to be picked.

And GOP insider Mark McKinnon writes on The Daily Beast that he thinks Romney will play it safe.

A safe pick that is not named Portman is named Pawlenty. Now THAT would send enthusiasm through the roof.


Who will Romney pick?

2%3 votes
7%11 votes
1%2 votes
0%1 votes
27%41 votes
20%30 votes
22%34 votes
17%26 votes

| 148 votes | Vote | Results

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