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Over at 538, Nate Silver has a prediction of the percentage odds for Barack Obama's re-election. He charts the day to day variation of running his model.

When he began running his model on May 31, President Obama's chances for re-election were rated at 63.7%. The next day a batch of polls came out and the chance dropped to 59.5%, and on June 2nd the odds dropped to 59.0%; in horse race parlance, 3:2.

That was the worst day. The percentage chance of an Obama victory has climbed, with good days and bad, to a current rating of 72.5%. The trend has not been in Romney's favor, not at all.

Now unless you are inclined to trust Dick Morris (if so, why?) that there are super-secret polls that are better than all the published ones showing a Romney lead, I think that Team Romney has got to be a little nervous right about now.

Just as John McCain was getting a little nervous in August 2008, when he went with his fighter pilot's gut and unleashed the horror that is Snow Snooki™ upon us all.

Per the Real Clear Politics average of polls, on this date in 2008 Obama led McCain by 3.6%. Today, per the same site, Obama leads Romney by 3.4%.

So ... the trend is not Romney's friend. His deficit in the polls, and in momentum, is similar to that experienced by McCain. Will he try for a game changer with his VP pick? Because if he can't change the subject away from his gaffe-a-thon campaign very soon, he will be waiting for Obama to make a serious mistake. Good luck with that, Willard.

Having said this, I went and looked at which VP rumor mill candidates are experiencing Wikipedia editing.
Portman: yes
Jindal: yes
Ryan: yes
Pawlenty: yes
Christie: yes
McDonnell: no
Martinez: no

No sane person would expect T-Paw or Portman to be a game changer.
So: Jindal, Ryan, or Christie.

The fact that the WSJ editorialized in favor of Ryan indicates that Murdoch thinks Ryan needs help ... and I suspect he knows fairly well what is going on in the Romney camp.

So, speculating wildly: Jindal. Christie has already been given a plum speaking role at the convention.

Your mileage may vary, and I admit this is wild speculation, but if it does happen, you will all have to bow before my superlative punditosity.

Update:

Portman told CNNhe doesn't expect to be picked.

And GOP insider Mark McKinnon writes on The Daily Beast that he thinks Romney will play it safe.

A safe pick that is not named Portman is named Pawlenty. Now THAT would send enthusiasm through the roof.

Poll

Who will Romney pick?

2%3 votes
7%11 votes
1%2 votes
0%1 votes
27%41 votes
20%30 votes
22%34 votes
17%26 votes

| 148 votes | Vote | Results

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