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Leading Off:

ND-Sen: Busted! On Thursday, Democrat Heidi Heitkamp sent a takedown letter (PDF) to local television stations, asking them to stop airing the new Crossroads GPS ad attacking her on the grounds that it contains false information. (Remember, TV stations are required to air all candidate ads and are immune from lawsuits regarding them, but they can be held liable for defamation when it comes to third-party ads.) Heitkamp had Crossroads dead to rights: The spot accuses her of spending "taxpayer dollars to buy private planes." But as her letter points out, the planes in questions were provided by the federal government for free. Nor were they "private": The planes were transferred from the Defense Dept. to the state AG's office and were used for official purposes only—namely, drug dealer surveillance.

So, what happened? Later that very same day, Crossroads yanked the ad—presumably to replace it with a re-cut version as quickly as possible. Rather stupidly, the group also blatantly lied about what prompted them to pull the spot, claiming they weren't motivated by Heitkamp's complaints (oh no, of course not). But thanks to Politico's Maggie Haberman, Crossroads got busted for the second time in a single day. A local TV station official confirmed that she heard from Heitkamp's people—and then informed Crossroads—long before the ad actually got nuked. Suckas.

P.S. On the Dem side of the independent expenditure world, the Majority PAC is putting in another $106K on TV ads to attack GOP Rep. Rick Berg. That's much bigger than their usual buys here, which have previously topped out at $67K apiece. I'm not sure whether this is a re-up or for a new spot, but Maj PAC usually lists production costs separately and I'm not seeing any of those in this report, so I'd guess the former. All told, the group has now spent some $617K on airing commercials in this race.


CT-Sen: In case you're wondering how much wrestling tycoon Linda McMahon has spent on her bid for Senate this year, the latest tally comes out to $12.4 million—so far. Last cycle, the Republican hopeful dug deep into her own pockets to the tune of $50 million, all in a losing effort. Incidentally, she's raised just $524K from individual donors this time. Also, McMahon's been running a new attack ad against Murphy (again, I've seen it on TV), but she hasn't had the guts to post it on her YouTube channel.

HI-Sen: Well, it took the New York Times about two months to take notice of GOP Senate hopeful Linda Lingle's round-the-clock "LingleVision" cable channel—which we first wrote about back in early June. But following the unofficial NYT motto ("the last with the most"), Adam Nagourney offers a copious amount of detail about how exactly the station works and what Lingle is hoping to accomplish. Unsurprisingly, pretty much no one seems to think it's an awesome idea.

IN-Sen: A new internal for Dem Rep. Joe Donnelly from the Global Strategy Group continues to paint a very competitive picture of the race. Donnelly is at 41, Republican Richard Mourdock is at 40, and Libertarian Andrew Horning is at 4. That's unchanged from a May GSG poll that had the contest at 40 apiece. Interesting that Republicans don't seem to have released any of their own polling here. Well, Rasmussen has... but even he finds a dead heat.

MA-Sen: Sheesh. GOP Sen. Scott Brown is flipping out because the Massachusetts welfare department is sending voter registration forms to about half a million people who receive public assistance—in order to comply with the decades-old motor-voter law. The Bay State was prodded into action in part because of a lawsuit filed by a non-partisan organization called Demos, and it so happens that Elizabeth Warren's daughter sits on the group's board. Said Brown:

"I want every legal vote to count, but it's outrageous to use taxpayer dollars to register welfare recipients as part of a special effort to boost one political party. This effort to sign up welfare recipients is being aided by Elizabeth Warren's daughter and it's clearly designed to benefit her mother's political campaign."
Demos has sought to enforce the law in 18 different states over the last decade and filed at least two other lawsuits in different jurisdictions this year alone, so this is an utterly bogus charge. Of course, for aggrieved conservatives who see some kind of voting fraud conspiracy everywhere they look, this probably only helps Brown to rile up the base.

MO-Sen: This is really funny:

An unusual thing happened in Missouri politics yesterday.

After U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill opened her fall re-election campaign by launching a website attacking Republican primary winner Todd Akin on five major issues, his campaign responded by saying McCaskill got the facts right.

"I did not go into everything in each individual issue in depth, but what it looks like is basically things they consider bad but we don't," Akin spokesman Ryan Hite said of the material on

More specifics at the link. Guilty as charged, I guess!

MT-, NM-Sen: We have the size of the buys now for two new DSCC attack ads: $133K in New Mexico against Heather Wilson, and $93K in Montana against Denny Rehberg.

NM-Sen: I like this new spot from Dem Rep. Martin Heinrich, which lists out "the top five ways you can tell" he "hasn't gone Washington." The production values are good, the message is simple and clear, and it's not your usual cookie-cutter "protect Medicare and Social Security" type of ad. Also, loved the part about him sleeping "on a camping mat" in his office!

VA-Sen: Rasmussen: Tim Kaine (D): 46 (46), George Allen (R): 46 (45).

WI-Sen: The Club for Growth is putting another $476K behind its already-significant TV ad buys that both boost Mark Neumann and attack his two chief GOP primary rivals, Eric Hovde and Tommy Thompson. That brings the CfG's total outlay to a huge $1.7 million. What's more, on the GOP side, 100% of all outside money has been either pro-Neumann or anti-Thompson/Hovde. Beyond the Club, other conservative groups, led by Americans for Job Security, have spent $880K here. (It's still not clear whether AJS supports Thompson or Neumann, but since they're only going after Hovde, it doesn't really matter.)

Speaking of Hovde, he's taking a new tack with his latest ad. Trying to hitch his wagon to Scott Walker's neutron star, the announcer criticizes Neumann for various negative things he said about Wisconsin's governor when the two were battling for the GOP nomination in 2010. Seems like a sort of weak attack at this late stage of the game—the primary is on Tuesday.


NE-Gov: When the Nebraska governor's mansion becomes open in two years' time, you can expect that most if not all the action will be concentrated on the GOP side. And, though it's very early, the field is already starting to take shape. Speaker of the Legislature Mike Flood is now the second Republican to signal strong interest in running, saying he'll decide for sure next month. He'd join Lt. Gov. Rick Sheehy, who's already officially in the mix and has the support of outgoing Gov. Dave Heineman.

NH-Gov: The 17,000-strong NEA, aka the teachers union, is backing Maggie Hassan in the Democratic primary. The group is apparently the largest union in the state.


AZ-04: Look out! The Club for Growth is going in huge for state Sen. Ron Gould in the GOP primary, pouring $392K into TV ads in an attempt to obliterate Rep. Paul Gosar, with another $47K online. The Club's not usually shy about posting even their harshest stuff on their YouTube page, so I'm guessing they just haven't gotten around to uploading the new material yet.

AZ-06: Super PAC National Horizon chips in another $19K for its paid media campaign against GOP Rep. Ben Quayle. (Their initial TV buy was for $90K.)

AZ-09: Super PAC Restoring Arizona's Integrity is spending another $16K on mailers attacking Democrat Andrei Cherny. And here's another $14K more in mailers from EMILY's List for Democrat Kyrsten Sinema.

CO-04: Democrat Brandon Shaffer definitely got the shaft in redistricting, but to his credit, he stuck with his race against GOP Rep. Cory Gardner, and now he's out with a poll that paints a surprisingly close picture of the contest. The survey, from Lauer Johnson Research, has Gardner up 42-35, a bit tighter than previously unreleased numbers from December which had Gardner on top 45-35. But there's a good reason to take this poll with a grain of salt, seeing as it also put Mitt Romney up just 46-41 over Barack Obama. John McCain won this district by a far wider 57-42 spread.

CT-05: Here's that new ad from the Dem-aligned Patriot Majority USA that goes after GOP state Sen. Andrew Roraback, in an effort to deny him his party's nomination. The spot, backed by a $208K ad buy, paints Roraback as a tax raiser. The difficulty here is that all the other candidates in the race are pretty conservative, so they're liable to split the vote and allow Roraback to sneak through. Hopefully Patriot Majority can stop him.

Also on the IE front, EMILY's List is dropping in yet another $17K on mailers to boost Democrat Elizabeth Esty.

FL-06: A right-wing group called the Conservative Action Fund is spending $25K on mailers attacking two candidates in the GOP primary in this open seat: state Rep. Fred Costello and St. Johns County School Board chair Bev Slough. They've endorsed attorney Ron DeSantis, who also has the backing of the Club for Growth—though as I noted just a day ago, the CfG has been more words than deeds in this race.

FL-09: Another $21K in mailers from the House Majority PAC aimed at mucking up the GOP primary, and once again, they're going after both Todd Long and John Quinones.

IA-04: House Majority PAC is getting the band back together, with SEIU on keyboard and AFSCME playing the bass, as the all-star trio gets their jam on with a new ad attacking GOP Rep. Steve King. (You'll recall they previously ran a positive spot about his Democratic opponent, Christie Vilsack.) The spot goes after King because he "voted to raise his own pay but voted against raising the minimum wage." HMP says that this is the second ad in a "four-week, $400,000" buy, so I'm guessing that means it may be the last one, then, because this consortium already put $189K into their first ad. (HMP already filed an IE report, showing they're putting in $50K for this latest effort. No filings from SEIU or AFSCME yet.)

IL-02: Well, if Eugene V. Debs could run for president from prison, then I guess Jesse Jackson, Jr. can do the same from the Mayo Clinic. Local media are reporting that some of Jackson's top campaign ads have been making calls to various players assuring them that the Democratic congressman, who mysteriously vanished from sight with a mysterious set of ailments back in June, "fully expects to be running for re-election in the fall." Of course "fully expects" is rather different from "will actually do so," so we'll see.

IL-13: Democrat David Gill, who was just added to the DCCC's Red to Blue list on Wednesday, is out with a new internal poll from Victoria Research that gives him a 36-30 lead over Republican replacement candidate Rodney Davis. Independent John Hartman takes a surprising nine percent. Gill's vote share is actually down somewhat compared to an April survey (also from Victoria), where he led Davis 41-31. (Hartman wasn't tested then, though.) Obviously both contenders are still relatively low on name rec at this stage.

MI-11: Hoo boy:

Four staffers of former U.S. Rep. Thad McCotter, R-Livonia were charged today in connection with the false nominating petitions that led to McCotter's departure from Congress.

Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette described the four as "not simply Keystone Kops running amok ... criminal acts were committed."

He said the petition forgeries and cut-and-paste jobs on the petitions "would make an elementary art teacher cringe."

Just as amazing, Schuette says that he thinks these morans did the same thing in 2008, re-using signatures collected in 2006. Schuette also lambasted McCotter as "asleep at the switch" but had insufficient evidence to charge the former congressman himself.

MN-08: An interesting development in the MN-08 Democratic primary: Tarry Clark, who has spent the most on TV advertising, has decided to go negative with the election fast approaching on Tuesday. Her new spot hits Rick Nolan for allegedly accepting some sort of lavishly-rewarded public sector job, though it's pretty unclear to me exactly what the story is since the narrator doesn't even say what job Nolan was supposedly supposed to be performing. More important, I think, is that Clark apparently feels unsure of her chances, enough to switch gears in attack mode at the last minute.

ND-AL: A good catch by Adam Blomeke at North Decoder: House nominee Kevin Cramer, making excuses for his fellow Republicans who adjourned Congress early, thinks that his home state "probably can weather not having a Farm Bill." For a state heavily dependent on agriculture like North Dakota, this is a remarkably clueless statement.

NY-11: More shadiness from GOP Rep. Mike Grimm:

When Representative Michael G. Grimm, a first-term Staten Island Republican, went on a fact-finding trip abroad last year, he widely publicized his first stop, Israel, sending off a stream of messages about his activities there via Twitter. But he was largely silent about his second stop, Cyprus.

In fact, Mr. Grimm did not file required paperwork about the trip, which was paid for by a private organization, with the House clerk, according to Congressional records. Nor did he initially report the Cyprus trip on his Congressional financial disclosure filing in May, even though he did list the Israel trip, according to the records.

But in June, Mr. Grimm amended his financial disclosure filing to report the Cyprus trip, the records show. The amended filing came one day after his host on the trip, Peter Papanicolaou, the president of the Cyprus Federation of America, which paid for the $6,890 visit, was arrested in Brooklyn on federal corruption charges.

Grimm, of course, says that the amended filing had no connection with the arrest. Actually, I should point out that it was Grimm's lawyer who said this—and when your attorney is acting as your press secretary, that's seldom a good sign.

Grab Bag:

Ads: If you've suddenly noticed political ads popping up while listening to Pandora (customized online streaming radio, if you aren't familiar), you're not alone. Apparently political ad buyers are starting to notice that Pandora (which can let you target by musical choice in addition to geographical location, gender, and age) is a micro-targeter's dream come true. It's being used not only for traditional ads but also click-throughs for vacuuming up lots of e-mail addresses.

Along those lines of where to target online ads, here's a fascinating graphic that correlates political preferences and intensities with the websites that people visit. Pandora, along with the other highest-volume sites like Facebook, YouTube, and Angry Birds, are unsurprisingly smack right in the middle, but there are some interesting fissures, too. Some you might have guessed (Wikipedia users lean left, Farmville users lean right), but others are a surprise (Google leans left, Bing leans right; Zappos leans left, Amazon leans right; and maybe the most polarized spread of all is Etsy leaning way left and eBay leaning way right). (David Jarman)

Colorado: PPP's Colorado odds-n-ends heap is out, with polling on civil unions, gun control, marijuana legalization, and the usual politician job approvals.

Dark Money: If the FEC and IRS won't do it, at least New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman will. According to a new report in the New York Times, Schneiderman is ramping up his investigation into the political activities of tax-exempt 501(c)(4) organizations, like Karl Rove's Crossroads GPS and the pro-Dem Patriot Majority USA. According to the article, non-profit groups that do business or raise money in New York must file copies of their tax returns with the AG's office. Schneiderman's been busy sending letters to groups that "appear to fall under those regulations but have not filed the required paperwork"—and insisting that they provide their returns. If they don't comply, subpoenas could come next.

Dark Money: Maybe "dark money" isn't the best heading, since this contribution isn't dark at all: the Scotts Miracle-Gro company just publicly stepped out with a $200,000 contribution to the Mitt Romney-aligned Restore Our Future PAC. This is highly unusual, in that it's the first time this cycle that a major corporation has taken advantage of post-Citizens United privileges of contributing directly (instead of the time-honored tradition of breaking it down through max-out contributions from dozens of its executives). It's not the first time this has ever happened, but if you recall back to Target's ill-fated attempts to meddle in Minnesota in 2010 and the backlash that spawned, it's surprising that anyone is trying again—especially considering that if you have a well-known brand, your priority #1 is to protect the brand at all costs, including avoiding alienating anyone based on anything.

But, as the WaPo article points out, Scotts' leadership have been pretty open about their political preferences in the past. They might also be taking a look at the recent Chick-Fil-A example, where a product with an already Republican-leaning base might benefit from amping up its support among them at the expense of alienating other market segments (i.e. Democrats) who perhaps weren't going to patronize them as much anyway. In Chick-Fil-A's case, it's a matter of geography (in that they mostly only appear in the South); in Scotts' case, it may be a gamble that Democrats are less likely to own lawns, or if they do, that they're likelier to use organic products or tolerate a weedy lawn. (David Jarman)

Friends of Democracy: A new liberal super PAC called Friends of Democracy is reportedly going big in four House districts with swap-out-the-name versions of this ad. The targets are Dan Lungren (CA-07), Chip Cravaack (MN-08), Charlie Bass (NH-02), and Sean Duffy (WI-07), and the buy is apparently for $700K all told.

Illinois: The right-wing New Prosperity Foundation is ramping up its efforts with new TV buys targeting Democrats Tammy Duckworth (IL-08), Brad Schneider (IL-10), Bill Foster (IL-11), David Gill (IL-13), and Cheri Bustos (IL-17). Each candidate is getting dosed with $60K in TV ads—I'm guessing just a re-up of the group's previously tiny buys on carbon-copy versions of this spot. Also worth noting that this is the first time NPF has placed Gill and Bustos in its crosshairs.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Remember, remember. (11+ / 0-)
    TV stations are required to air all candidate ads and are immune from lawsuits regarding them, but they can be held liable for defamation when it comes to third-party ads.
    Our main weapon against Citizens United. Remember to use it locally. Even if you don't have the means to sue, the threat itself might just work.

    We're fools whether we dance or not, so we might as well dance.

    by PowWowPollock on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 05:11:52 AM PDT

  •  MN-08: does anyone in the district actually (9+ / 0-)

    support Tarryl Clark in the primary? I look around my neighborhood and there's a fairly even split between Anderson and Nolan yard-signs, but nothing for Clark. And in every conversation I've had with friends and acquaintances, the discussion comes down to the pros and cons of Anderson and Nolan and the possibilities for unseating Cravaack. In all honesty, Clark just doesn't come up...

    Real stupidity beats artificial intelligence every time. (Terry Pratchett)

    by angry marmot on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 05:22:50 AM PDT

    •  Interesting...Thanks For The Local Insights.... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      angry marmot, DCCyclone, bumiputera

      Do you live in Duluth or the Iron Range?  My hunch is that Clark will probably win in the south side of the district where her advertising advantage is more likely to play, but with Nolan's home turf being in the Brainerd area even that might not save Clark.

    •  I have not found one yet (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      angry marmot, DCCyclone, bumiputera

      I have honestly to goodness not met a single resident of MN-8 that is a Clark supporter.

      From everything I can tell, Anderson is going to win Duluth and perhaps areas like Proctor, Hermantown (Duluth suburbs), Bemidji (He is an alum of Bemdji State) and Ely (He is an Ely native, "favorite son" effect) but Nolan is going to absolutely crush in areas like Brainerd, Hibbing, Virginia, Grand Rapids, etc. Clark may not win a single municipality outside of Benton County, if even there.

      •  That sounds about right to me... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, OGGoldy, bumiputera, itskevin

        Nolan has all sorts of institutional advantages over Anderson, and while I personally like Jeff and his politics I will be very surprised if Nolan doesn't win on Tuesday.

        Real stupidity beats artificial intelligence every time. (Terry Pratchett)

        by angry marmot on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 07:05:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Not sure you meant (0+ / 0-)

        Benton County, which is still in MN-06.

        Real stupidity beats artificial intelligence every time. (Terry Pratchett)

        by angry marmot on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 07:52:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Anderson should also do well on the Range (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        angry marmot

        Anderson should do well in both Duluth and the Range, though I can't say whether he will actually carry them.  St. Louis County (which includes both Duluth and the Iron Range) will only be about the half the vote in the primary, however.  Anderson's great challenge will be to do well enough in St. Louis County to make up for his extreme weakness elsewhere.  That is why I agree that Nolan probably has this.

        •  I dunno (0+ / 0-)

          He will certainly overperform Clark. But Nolan seems much more culturally akin to me and my fellow Rangers (I was born in Hibbing, and raised in a few small towns outside of there). My guess is that overall Anderson carries St. Louis County due to the sheer number of DFL voters in Duluth. But He will certainly be much weaker in the rest of the district, including the other Range Counties.

          •  Thanks for the insight (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            I've been wondering how things were going on the Range.  If you talk to the Anderson people, they will tell you they are confident they will carry the Range, largely due to his demaoguing the mining issue and his local connections.  (His dad was a Steelworker and just about every local elected official on the Range is supporting him.)  If he can't carry the Range, he's dead in the water.  He may carry Duluth, but there's a lot of support for Nolan here, as well.

            •  Endorsements (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Mark27, bumiputera

              I have to say, I was actually shocked to see Rukavina, Melin, and such endorse Anderson. Don Ness makes sense, given the Counsil President/Mayor relationship. I am actually upset with Ness for not running himself, as he would have put Cravaack away by 20 points on Day 1, the same goes for Tony Sertich, although Sertich would have likely done so by 30 on Day 1.

              •  As I Said Previously..... (0+ / 0-)

                ....the DCCC's decidedly nonaggressive recruitment in this race tells me they are confident they will win this seat back no matter who the Democrat they nominate.

                •  If the candidates were Nolan Anderson (0+ / 0-)

                  I would agree with you. But Clark has shown to be fantastically weak with this electorate. And with outside interests propping up her campaign, she has been doing some damage, although likely not so much that it sinks Nolan, or slingshots her passed Anderson.

                  •  Clark was the chosen one (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:

                    Tarryl Clark was the chosen one of DC Democratic establishment.  Shows how out of touch they can be.  They don't seem to understand that no amount money can turn an ineffective candidate into an effective one.  (Can you say Mitt Romney?)

                    •  Maybe they felt she deserved support for having (0+ / 0-)

                      taken on Bachmann last time around.  I could see that.  It was a thankless task, trying to talk sense to a district full of crazies.

                      The good we secure for ourselves is precarious and uncertain, is floating in mid-air, until it is secured for all of us and incorporated into our common life. Jane Addams

                      by Alice Olson on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 12:27:26 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

    •  I know a handful of Clark supporters (4+ / 0-)

      Believe it or not, I know a handful of Clark supporters in Duluth-- few enough that I could probably name them all, but that would bore most readers.

      Without exception, however, everyone I have spoken to in the last month who is undecided has been trying to decide between Anderson and Nolan.

  •  Have the NBC/Marist State Polls Gone Bust? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    It has been several weeks now since we have seen any. I thought they would have been more prolific. I wonder now if they have been cancelled or put on hold.

  •  ND Democratic hold is important, to keep hold of (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MartyM, Odysseus, Woody

    the senate and see if Dirty Harry will indeed make meaningful filibuster reform (or that issue I'm from Missouri). A wise use of campaign money.

    "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

    by TofG on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 05:26:15 AM PDT

    •  Remember this when Heidi appears to be the (0+ / 0-)

      second coming of Kent Conrad.  And, I mean this with all the admiration for Heidi in the world.  I just know how many people on this site really, really despised Kent whenever push came to shove over the past three years. (I, myself, wrote him a pile of "What's up with you?" emails and FB postings.)  

      We can expect more of the same blue dog positions from Heidi and will simply have to keep reminding ourselves that she's way, way better than the alternative and that holding the Senate is a top priority.

      The good we secure for ourselves is precarious and uncertain, is floating in mid-air, until it is secured for all of us and incorporated into our common life. Jane Addams

      by Alice Olson on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 12:33:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  First of all, all dollars are the same. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The phrase "taxpayer dollars" is just another example of groupists having to segregate and divide reality into manageable bits, as if without a forest, there would be no trees.

    I suspect that segregation and categorization are integral to how groupists/conservatives think.  They are incapable of seeing individuals as distinct entities.  Which is interesting given their emphasis on independence and individualism -- qualities they actually find it impossible to achieve. Humans are, after all, social creatures and connected in many ways.  Perhaps the problem is one of perception -- that people who rely on superficial optics can't "see" the connection. So, they sort people by their obvious commonalities -- like bluebirds and black birds and yellow birds.  And, if that's the case, and the categories they are used to become suspect, they're naturally upset. That "appearances are deceiving" is no consolation to people who have nothing to go on but what things look like.

    Willard's forte = "catch 'n' cage". He's not into "catch and release."

    by hannah on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 05:39:14 AM PDT

  •  Ad Spending for Week of 8/13 (8+ / 0-)

    As always, metric is $$$ per electoral vote.

    1. VA - $228,313 (R) + $188,321 (D) = $416,634
    2. IA - $261,682 (R) + $147,171 (D) = $408,853
    3. NV - $181,728 (R) + $136,228 (D) = $317,956
    4. OH - $184,270 (R) + $126,658 (D) = $310,928
    5. CO - $192,750 (R) + $117,859 (D) = $310,609
    6. NC - $137,879 (R) + $80,980 (D) = $218,859
    7. NH - $83,751 (R) + $130,765 (D) = $214,516
    8. FL - $120,871 (R) + $68,135 (D) = $189,006
    9. WI - $140,625 (R) + $0 (D) = $140,625
    10. PA - $55,294 (R) + $9,996 (D) = $65,290
    11. MI - $10,433 (R) + $0 (D) = $10,433

    TOTAL - $1,597,596 (R) + $1,006,113 (D) = $2,603,709


    1. Republicans still have the spending advantage, but it is much less than it has been for the past few weeks.
    2. Crossroads is taking a break and AFP is doing the heavy lifting, with minor help from the RNC and ROF.
    3. Significant play for Wisconsin from AFP.  First significant spending there.  Still nothing from Team Obama.
    4. Michigan drops off the face of the Earth.  Just a tiny buy from ROF there.  Still nothing from Team Obama.
    5. New Hampshire drops out of the top 6 in favor of North Carolina.  I think this is meaningful, especially because AFP has chosen to spend nothing there, diverting resources instead to Wisconsin.  Looking good for Team Obama in NH.
    6. Status quo from last week in Pennsylvania.  Modest SuperPAC spending on the Republican side, and just a tiny Priorities buy on the Dem side.  Nothing from either campaign.

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 05:41:57 AM PDT

    •  the Republican spending in WI stands out (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mike Kahlow

      and it makes sense for Romney to make an effort in at least one of WI, MI and PA. If he abandons hope of flipping any medium/large Kerry states then he is left threading his way to 270 through the eye of a needle, needing to win NC, FL, OH, VA and one of NV, IA, CO, NH. He may not be much worse off currently in WI than in, say, NH or NV, so why not try to at least make Obama sweat there?

      •  It is big money in WI (0+ / 0-)

        My guess is that AFP just sees the race differently than Crossroads.  Crossroads spent in MI and NH, and AFP is spending in WI instead of those.  Will be interesting to see which strategy Crossroads employs when it goes back on the air.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

        by spiderdem on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 06:21:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I wonder if Obama or allies will respond (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          It wouldn't be good if a normally reliable (at the presidential level) state slipped out of neglect, as IN did for the Republicans in 2008.

          That said it's rather hard to see any of WI, PA, MI being really critical for the election unless they start moving much closer to the national polling averages than they have been so far. Currently they all look like they might conceivably be winnable if Romney has a national lead of about +3 or better, but if he gets to +3 then he is almost certainly already getting 270 EV elsewhere first.

          Nate Silver currently pegs Romney's chances of winning PA, WI or MI as under 15% - similar to Obama's odds of winning MO or MT. In both cases, still conceivable if the polls shift significantly in one direction or the other, but long shots and unlikely to make a difference to the overall outcome.

        •  Might Foreshadow A Ryan Veep Selection n/t (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          AZ RedWingsFan, tommypaine
        •  I don't think that's exactly right (0+ / 0-)

          I think AFP and Crossroads don't see things differently, rather they tag-team.  They don't think they both need to be in every state, every week.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 07:22:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  They definitely tag team. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            Crossroads goes off the air then AFP goes on the air.  But there is a difference in strategy.  Nobody is spending significantly in MI now, and nobody was spending significantly in WI before this transition.

            White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

            by spiderdem on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 07:35:35 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Wisconsin is dumber than the others (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Obama is clearly stronger in Wisconsin than the others, I think.  Michigan is tough to gauge because public polling has been so poor, but I'm guessing Romney (home-stater effect offset by opposing auto bailout, but still better than in Wisky where he has no appeal) is less unpopular there than in Wisconsin, even if Obama is the same in both.

        The other thing about Wisconsin is Obama's triple play of high job approval typically at or over 50, high favorables typically by a double-digit margin, and low Romney favorables.  That's not a combination I see as often in Pennsylvania and Michigan polling.

        So I don't think GOP efforts in Wisconsin will work as well as the others, I think Wisky is likely to be very safe and immune to attacks on Obama.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 07:48:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  But Wisconsin has ready made GOP ground game... (0+ / 0-)

          I think PAC's are in Wisconsin just in case Rep Ryan is the VP pick.  

          •  Or could it be (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            the Koch Brothers trying to encourage Romney to pick Ryan.  This is way out of step with the history of the race.  Something is up, and it may have to do with Ryan.

            White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

            by spiderdem on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 08:02:08 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  And what would a Ryan pick do exactly? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, askew

            Ryan isn't exactly popular in Wisconsin, plus his district is substantially to the right of the rest of Wisconsin. He has no real appeal to the rest of the state.

            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

            by NMLib on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 09:41:05 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Electrify The Movement Conservative Base..... (0+ / 0-)

              ....and accelerate fund-raising to the point that Romney will be able to saturate every media market in the country after Labor Day.

              •  And alienate everyone else... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                DCCyclone, askew

                Picking Ryan means he has the noose of the Ryan Plan around his neck, I don't care what kind of fundraising help he gets from it (and I"m really skeptical it makes much of a difference, given that Romney hasn't really had problems fundraising anyways).

                Incidentally, this would probably also super-charge Obama's fundraising too, there's really not much upside to a Ryan pick.

                Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                by NMLib on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 10:07:24 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Don't Underestimate What Money Can Buy...... (0+ / 0-)

                  Ryan will help make Romney's cash advantage over Obama that much more lopsided.  That could very well overcome whatever downside Ryan brings electorally, which I continue to think will be marginal because most voters don't believe Republicans are serious about taking away their Social Security and Medicare.

                  •  Really? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:

                    Again, the money thing is double-edged, remember that when McCain picked Sarah Palin, Obama had an absurd fundraising month, these things don't exist in a vacuum, most of our side is well aware of what a Ryan pick means and we'll respond accordingly (or at least our money will) which completely neutralizes any advantage on the money front Ryan might bring.

                    And really, it's hard to make that argument when Paul Ryan authored a bill saying exactly that, and took a lot of flack for it (and the media and the Obama campaign will beat Romney over the head with it).

                    Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                    by NMLib on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 10:20:44 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  The GOP's Working-Class Base..... (0+ / 0-)

                      ....wholly rejects the premise of privatizing Social Security and voucherizing Medicare, yet still proclaims its unbending devotion to Mitt Romney and the Republican Party this fall.  And when given a generic issues agenda based on the Ryan budget and asked whether they believe any politicians would support that, their answer is a definitive "no".  That tells me that whatever Ryan and Romney say they plan to do, their own voters don't believe they're really gonna do it.

                      •  Who cares about the GOP's base? (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:

                        They'll vote for Romney even if he picks Zombie Benedict Arnold as his running-mate, whether they're working class or not.

                        But Ryan doesn't even help Romney among the working-class in general, he has no appeal to them, except for some generic fact that he can help Romney's fundraising (which, as I've mentioned several times right now, is a two-way street, a Ryan pick will help Obama's fundraising, the left hates Ryan as much as the right-wing likes him).

                        Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                        by NMLib on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 10:33:06 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                  •  Money is useless (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    bumiputera, NMLib

                    Romney and allies have battered Obama for months with their best cards to no avail.  More ads saying the same things won't help.

                    They need something more to run against that currently doesn't exist, and they need to repair Romney's public image.  That requires better strategy and luck, not even more money.

                    We're past the point of worrying about money.  Message matters more, and Romney still doesn't have one......and it's awfully late to try to establish a foundation for anything new.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 11:01:22 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

          •  The ground game is history (0+ / 0-)

            That "ready-made" ground game needed to be kept activated post-recall, not allowed to collect dust with a later attempt to re-start it.  Field organizing is never just flipping a switch, it takes months to fully reactivate most or all volunteers and get voter identification completed.  Voter ID for the recall doesn't help because there are too many Walker/Obama voters, and they need to find out who they are......and that takes more time than is left.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 11:03:57 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  It's 'sconsin, not Wisky. Just saying. ;-) (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, bumiputera, DCCyclone

          But I think you're right, I don't think Romney gets traction here. It's a very working-class state, with a low tolerance for the kind of airs RMoney puts on. And I think the polls show that.

          Remember, Walker's centerpiece campaign theme was that he "brown-bagged" his lunches. You have to establish that cred here.

    •  Coordinating in plain sight (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Had Crossroads announced it was going off-air?

    •  If these, "in toto" are the "toss-up" states (0+ / 0-)

      That to me suggests a lead for the President of 3 to 5 nationally.

      If it were an even race nationally, there would be more money spent in places like PA and WI, while spending would be down in places like NC, OH, and IA.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 07:41:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, these figures look sweet (0+ / 0-)

        Only 6 states where our side is spending over $200,000 a week.

        One of those is New Hampshire, where to get broadcast covering the most populated part of the state, you have to buy Boston market TV, and that ain't cheap.

        Of course, both of the House seats in NH are being fought hard, and a stronger lead at the top won't hurt these important down-ticket races.

        Wonder if Team Obama will stick to this same "toss-up" state list thru the entire campaign season. Or if the polling keeps moving our way, will they make a late thrust at Montana or Arizona or another wild card for fun and potential profit.

  •  Willard and Miracle Gro. (0+ / 0-)

    It's my sense that Willard's people are employing the kind of extortion that legislative candidates routinely employ to collect funds from corporations -- by threatening to either support restrictive legislation or withhold support from protective (monopoly securing, copy right, etc.) legislation, if the corps don't pony up for the electoral coffers.

    Indeed, I'm willing to suggest that part of the Koch involvement with the Tea Party was prompted by them being fed up with being held up by Congress.

    Not doing this, that, or the other thing is such a nifty strategy.  It can't by any stretch of the imagination be called bribery and the electorate, which doesn't get the representation it pays for, has few options.  Not to mention that nobody really minds when threats to do nasty stuff like withhold medical care or remove pensions aren't carried out.
    The promise to abolish Obamacare "on the first day" that Willard's been making falls into the same category.  If you promise the impossible and don't deliver, nobody can blame you.

    Planning to fail comes in many flavors.

    Willard's forte = "catch 'n' cage". He's not into "catch and release."

    by hannah on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 05:51:00 AM PDT

  •  In Scottyworld Romney's +4 again today (4+ / 0-)

    Fox News must be wishing they could hire him as their pollster.

    •  Makes sense (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, AZ RedWingsFan, slacks, askew

      Considering he has more Republicans than Democrats in his sample, and doesn't poll, or account for, cellphones.

      He seems more interested now in writing "columns," using loaded issue polls, that are little more than diatribes against government.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 06:50:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  on cellphones (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        he has added a line in his general description claiming he does account for them: "To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel."

        •  Yeah, but online ain't cellphones (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          There's nothing I've seen that equates online respondents with cell phone only respondents.

          “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

          by Paleo on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 09:00:05 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Dang, it Dems! Give Texas a chance. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Paul Sadler can beat Cruz if he gets the money.

    Cruz is the smarmiest, sleaziest, sneeringest pos since Eric Cantor.

    He can be beaten, especially given his sense of entitlement.

    You can't make this stuff up.

    by David54 on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 06:46:50 AM PDT

    •  How much would it take? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      $20 million? Would that even be enough?

      Texas is currently R+10.

      I'm sorry, I think Sam Webb has a better chance of breaking 1% nationwide than Sadler would have even if someone were to give him $20 million.

      And its a crying shame, given how sleazy Cruz is.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 07:11:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Exactly (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Money needs to be allocated where it will have the greatest effect. And pouring money into Texas for a small chance of winning isn't wise when it would come at the expense of Missouri, North Dakota, Virginia, Montana, etc.

      •  There comes a time when the experts are wrong. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        stevenaxelrod, Alice Olson

        I understand what your saying, but...
        Dems need to make a fresh start in Texas.

        Cruz got selected by a tiny minority of voters.
        He is sleazy, unpersonable. He is a brat.
        He has a sense of entitlement. He's expecting to coast to victory ala Martha Coakley.

        Paul Sadler needs the money to get around to all the newspaper editiorial boards.
        He needs to get around to all the women's groups.
        He needs to get around to the hispanic groups.
        He needs to get into the big cities to the AA groups.
        He needs to get out to the wind farmers and talk about the production tax credit.

        That's not really a whole lot of money.

        Then he needs to be helped with some superpac/ progressive issue ads in Sept.
        Transvaginal probe ads
        wind farm ads
        voter suppression ads
        These ads need to be run on their own merit in Texas.
        I don't think that's a ton of money.

        I think we can catch the gop sleeping and catch an electorate that's ready for something different.
        Once he's challenged, I think Cruz would assist in his own takedown.
        If the experts and the pollsters keep sucking the wind out of Texas Democrativ Party, and they keep losing ground, it's never going to get better. You have to start building for the future sometime.
        I would say it should have been in 2008 when we had the momentum and money to possibly take down John Cornyn.

        You can't make this stuff up.

        by David54 on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 07:59:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Spoilsport. (0+ / 0-)

        You can't make this stuff up.

        by David54 on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 08:00:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  If Scott Walker is John Doe'd before November (0+ / 0-)

    Hovde is making it easier to be linked to Walker.

  •  Rasmussen holding firm (4+ / 0-)

    He still has the balls to show Romney leading 47-43 in the face of every other poll showing Obama with a healthy lead. This may be the year Ras makes a fool of himself!

  •  IL-02 (5+ / 0-)

    What campaigning does Jackson have to do?  His name is on the ballot. He's a Democrat running in Cook County.

  •  Rumor mill has it that in IN is that (5+ / 0-)

    The Lugar for Donnelly folk are making a difference.

    --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

    by idbecrazyif on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 07:29:06 AM PDT

  •  DNC to feature Republicans speakers (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, itskevin


    Politico notes these GOP speakers could include a "notable GOP women" on Wednesday night, and possibly a former GOP senator like John Warner or Chuck Hagel. A little surprised to see Warner's name on the list. But that might help a bit in VA.

  •  AZ-6 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Pass me the popcorn! I am absolutely loving the vicious tv adwar being waged in my ex-district between Ben ("Obama is the worst president in history") Quayle and David ("Tea Party Crackpot") Schweikert. Gleefully watching them personally destroy each other has been the highlight of my summer.

    At least one of those slimeballs is going to be out of a job no matter what, and it makes me so happy. I now live in a safe Democratic district. Ha!

    Arizona: Remember the good old days, when we were just known as the Grand Canyon State?

    by AZ RedWingsFan on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 07:49:38 AM PDT

  •  MN-8: Minnesota World Trade Center is the Issue (0+ / 0-)

    The focus of the Tarryl Clark attack ad is Rick Nolan's service as president of the Minnesota World Trade Center, a state agency established by Governor Rudy Perpich as a public-private partnership to promote global markets for Minnesota products.

    You'd never know that from seeing the ad, however.  It wasn't until after I read Nolan's response that I understood what the Clark attack even was.

    For more details, visit the Minnesota Progressive Project.

  •  in case you missed it (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    smart take on the state of the presidential race from Chuck Todd:

    Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

    by Bharat on Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 08:59:22 AM PDT

  •  IA-04 (0+ / 0-)

    I like the House Majority PAC ad. It's should resonate well with Iowa voters -- not to harsh.

    Personally, I prefer Stephen Colbert's latest piece on King.

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