From the Weekly Standard, who would know:
THE WEEKLY STANDARD has learned that the Romney campaign has begun to prepare a vigorous effort in support of Paul Ryan if he is selected as Mitt Romney’s vice presidential pick—something now likely to happen soon. For example, GOP officials tell THE WEEKLY STANDARD that Wisconsin governor Scott Walker is among a group of Republicans who has been asked to be ready, in terms of his schedule and other practical preparations, to make the case publicly for a Romney-Ryan ticket as early as Saturday
The Weekly Standard can't definitively confirm this, but the tea leaves remind me of the Biden pick.
According to Realclearpolitics, the job approval for Congress is 17 approve, 76 disapprove.
Challengers should always run against Congress. On its face, this is the dumbest pick since McGovern's pick in 1972.
So how do we evaluate this pick? In 2008 I wrote the following at openleft as part of a larger article on convention bounces.
As I wrote then:
This table shows the bounce Kerry got from naming Edwards:
This table shows a substantial bounce for Kerry from naming Edwards. This bounce is similar in size to the typical bounce that a candidate gets from a convention Data comparing the pre-convention and post convention period is ambiguous, but on average shows no change. Though the data is less clear, it appears that something similar took place in 1996. Dole named Kemp the day before the convention in 1996, and CNN showed that this cut a 22 point lead to 12 (the evidence from 2000 is less clear cut).
What the Kerry experience strongly suggests is that naming your VP selection early may substantially effect the bounce you get from a convention. For non-incumbents, it appears that the VP choice has an enormous impact on the public's perception of the candidate, and is responsible for much of the bounce that they receive.
What this shows, I think, is that both the Obama and McCain campaigns are being smart about thier potential nominees. The evidence suggests that once the nominee is named, much of the drama will end around the convention itself.
This chart updates the bounces candidates have received from conventions. NOTE THAT KERRY IS THE ONLY ONE THAT DIDN"T GET ONE.
This move is both desperate, and completely misunderstands the type of compaign challengers need to run to win.
Dumb.
The Romney appear to not have learned from history. Choosing a nominees this far out from the GOP convention is likely to end the drama about that convention. That suggests to me that the Romney people believe they are in more trouble than they would have you believe.