Skip to main content

Nate's analysis is based on the conventional wisdom that a VP pick doesn't help outside their home state - although they can certainly hurt (Palin, Eagleton).

Another of Mr. Romney’s potential choices, Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, drew more mixed reactions. Although Mr. Ryan should win his home district, pollsters who tested his numbers throughout Wisconsin found more tenuous results, with 38 percent of voters giving him a positive rating and 33 percent a negative one.
How Romney's pick of a running mate could sway the outcome

Nate's projections on Ryan's help in Wisconsin:

Net impact on state popular vote: + 0.7
Additional state wins out of 50,000 simulated elections: 1,231
Additional state win percentage: +2.5%
State electoral votes: 10
Projected additional electoral votes: + 0.2.

So that's Romney's game changer. Add 0.2 EV in Wisconsin, and take heat across the nation for the Ryan budget - because as noted at the top of the diary, a VP pick can hurt.

Nate considered 14 candidates, and Ryan finished 10th in terms of helping to win the election.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

grytpype, fly, Ottoe, JekyllnHyde, nota bene, Alma, TXdem, PrahaPartizan, filkertom, askew, glitterscale, MarkC, PeterHug, RunawayRose, bosdcla14, dengre, TheGreatLeapForward, Shockwave, jazzizbest, Sherri in TX, CleverNickName, polecat, grover, expatjourno, Heart of the Rockies, JLFinch, bronte17, whenwego, themank, ivote2004, Cedwyn, artebella, CocoaLove, litigatormom, tomephil, psnyder, hangingchad, TexDem, figbash, pat bunny, MKS, virginislandsguy, Noodles, wdrath, Steven Payne, defluxion10, betson08, raster44, Exurban Mom, ybruti, Sembtex, Curt Matlock, tomjones, pat208, Sassy, sebastianguy99, davidkc, CPT Doom, Recovering Southern Baptist, ExStr8, kbman, maybeeso in michigan, bloomer 101, radarlady, NoMoreLies, blueyedace2, revbludge, kitchen sink think tank, citizenx, dewtx, llywrch, Dobber, Gary Norton, Beetwasher, Dr Squid, Sun Tzu, uato carabau, aaraujo, MoronMike, Floja Roja, FindingMyVoice, JanL, Ekaterin, murasaki, Showman, lonemorriscodem, Patriot Daily News Clearinghouse, cybersaur, Mr Bojangles, Clytemnestra, dopper0189, HoundDog, Dvalkure, Wary, Son of a Cat, SadieSue, nicejoest, zhimbo, BB10, nannyboz, kurious, Hedwig, sea note, Aaa T Tudeattack, Cronesense, FWIW, moodyinsavannah, LSophia, Dave in Northridge, joedemocrat, newpioneer, rantsposition, mbh1023, jayden, US Blues, cyncynical, SeaTurtle, jhop7, Wreck Smurfy, uciguy30, leonard145b, homerun, Empower Ink, mconvente, JeffW, OleHippieChick, bythesea, elwior, Akonitum, mikeconwell, beltane, Lujane, rssrai, royce, CenFlaDem, smartdemmg, icebergslim, alnep, mofembot, Gemina13, BlueStateRedhead, DixieDishrag, palantir, grsplane, dmhlt 66, statsone, oldliberal, MrsTarquinBiscuitbarrel, prettygirlxoxoxo, Rhysling, Neon Vincent, greengemini, ronnied, be the change you seek, Norm in Chicago, rem123, DefendOurConstitution, moonbatlulu, elziax, johnosahon, stevenwag, sfarkash, mdmslle, Tortmaster, astral66, Lefty Ladig, Clyde the Cat, Railfan, Just Bob, Its the Supreme Court Stupid, smileycreek, coppercelt, marabout40, KroneckerD, NJpeach, gramofsam1, Tea and Strumpets, BenderRodriguez, Lost and Found, freeport beach PA, mjbleo, ATFILLINOIS, batchick, paradise50, Puddytat, sharonsz, Texnance, ericlewis0, Quantumlogic, Maximilien Robespierre, kerflooey, Front Toward Enemy, Hill Jill, ozsea1, spooks51, Bob Duck, ban nock, bgblcklab1, Mr MadAsHell, freesia, ardyess, OhioNatureMom, ncarolinagirl, FightingRegistrar, PorridgeGun, Cinnamon Rollover, thomask, awsdirector, blw, SueM1121, floridablue, Grandma Susie, wintergreen8694, mimi2three, Crider, Imhotepsings, Caddis Fly, Vatexia, Hayate Yagami, SteelerGrrl, thejoshuablog, DRo, DEMonrat ankle biter, ParkRanger, Only Needs a Beat, stormicats, Liberal Granny, RhodaA, Williston Barrett, molecularlevel, AreDeutz, Trotskyrepublican, JGibson, mapamp, peachcreek, Nztorg, MartyM, Murphoney, OllieGarkey, Kinak, dotdash2u, CalBearMom, Near Miss, nomandates, DamselleFly, Herodotus Prime, TeamSarah4Choice, Southcoast Luna, IamNotaKochsucker, paccoli, howabout, Icicle68, Smoh

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site