In 2009, Obama got 54% of the vote in Ryan's district, while Ryan himself got 64%. Presuming that as many as possible, 36% of the total vote, voted for Obama an not for Ryan, that leaves 18% (2/9) of the vote that voted for BOTH Obama & Ryan.
The question is, which way will this 18% go - and I'm not talking about just this district obviously, but about whatever folks out there could possibly consider both candidates are worthy of getting a vote.
The key to slaying the Angel of Death (Ryan) is to figure out how to keep this 18%. Perhaps after Ryan directed his Ayn Randian ideas into the public domain, this 18% has already decided to bolt from him (including hopefully some of his remaining 46%.)