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This is my first diary looking forward, looking at the gains. Until now I have looked back more in the spirit of detecting the troubles in must-win races and noting the need for a solution. At this point of the cycle, there are still some unsolved problems, but the majority of the problems show signs of improvement.

This diary will give a rank of the offices that are in the position of being counted as gains. The offices that are in easier positions and tie the number of offices in Democratic hands at the beginning of the cycle are in a previous diary called The defensive side of the cycle.

The ranking is based on numerical rules, the same for all the races, that take into account the PVI (Partisan Voting Index) of every constituency, the relative strength of the candidates of both parties, the fundraising, the polls and the primaries that mix candidates of both parties (WA, CA). As always, no-Rasmussen numbers.

The rank takes numbers for both sides. You can see a stronger Democrat back another weaker Democrat, but that is possible because of the strength of their Republican opponents. It is not the same to run versus a Republican incumbent as versus a new candidate, that may be a weak fundraiser.

MIXED RANKING FOR GAINS IN ALL THE LEVELS

192: NV-04 D+3 S Horsford (D)
---- MT-Sen R+7 J Tester (D) DEMOCRATIC VICTORY
193: NY-27 R+9 K Hochul (D)
194: NC-08 R+11 L Kissell (D)
195: UT-04 R+12 J Matheson (D)
196: CA-41 D+6 M Takano (D) DEMOCRATIC VICTORY
197: IA-03 R+1 L Boswell (D)
198: CA-26 D+3 J Brownley (D) DEMOCRATIC VICTORY
---- NV-Sen D+1 S Berkley (D)
199: AZ-01 R+5 A Kirkpatrick (D)
200: CO-07 D+4 E Perlmutter (D) DEMOCRATIC VICTORY
201: MA-06 D+4 J Tierney (D)
---- NC-LG R+4 L Coleman (D)
202: CA-52 D+2 S Peters (D) DEMOCRATIC VICTORY
203: CA-07 R+2 A Bera (D)
---- MO-SS R+3 J Kander (D)
204: FL-10 R+6 V Demings (D)
205: IL-17 D+7 C Bustos (D) DEMOCRATIC VICTORY
206: IL-10 D+10 B Schneider (D)
207: CO-06 D+1 J Miklosi (D)
208: WI-08 D+1 J Wall (D)
209: NH-01 EVEN C Shea-Porter (D)
210: WI-07 EVEN P Kreitlow (D)
211: NY-18 R+1 S Maloney (D)
212: FL-18 R+2 P Murphy (D)
213: NY-23 R+3 N Shinagawa (D)
214: CA-36 R+3 R Ruiz (D)
215: CA-10 R+3 J Hernández (D)
216: MI-03 R+3 S Pestka (D)
---- MO-LG R+3 S Montee (D)
217: IN-02 R+3 B Mullen (D)
218: TX-23 R+3 P Gallego (D)
219: OH-14 R+4 D Blanchard (D)
---- NC-CL R+4 J Brooks (D)
220: IA-04 R+5 C Vilsack (D)
221: CO-03 R+5 S Pace (D)
222: OH-16 R+6 B Sutton (D)
---- AZ-Sen R+6 R Carmona (D)
---- IN-SPI R+6 G Ritz (D)
223: MT-AL R+6 K Gillan (D)
224: OH-06 R+8 C Wilson (D)
225: NC-09 R+8 J Roberts (D)
226: SD-AL R+8 M Varilek (D)
227: FL-06 R+8 H Beaven (D)
---- ND-PSC2 R+10 B Crabtree (D)
228: MN-06 R+10 J Graves (D)
---- NE-Sen R+13 R Kerrey (D)
229: NC-11 R+13 H Rogers (D)
---- MT-AG R+7 P Bucy (D)
---- VT-LG D+13 C Gekas (D)
230: NV-03 D+1 J Oceguera (D)
231: NY-19 EVEN J Schreibman (D)
232: CA-21 R+1 J Hernández (D)
233: FL-13 R+2 J Ehrlich (D)
234: MI-11 R+3 S Taj (D)
235: NE-02 R+3 J Ewing (D)
---- NC-Gov R+4 W Dalton (D)
---- NC-CA R+4 W Smith (D)

My calculus gives numbers that agree in the large majority of races with other analyses. There are not many significant differences. As an example, if you take the house chart of The Huffington Post (based on the rating charts of C Cook, L Sabato and S Rothemberg) you can find in my 206 first seats, the 203 that they have in the blue part + Toss-Up with only 5 exceptions (NH-01, TX-23, OH-16, NY-22 and NY-23), while in my 206 first seats there are 8 that they do not have in their 203 (TX-14, FL-02, NY-27, NC-08, UT-04, IA-03, MA-06 and FL-10).

As part of my opinion, I bold emphasized the races where the Democratic Party has being fighting with better conditions to win. But in the last days of the campaign seems difficult to win all.

As I was expecting the cycle has been more a fight in defensive terms for the Democratic Party, but now, in the end of the cycle, there is still the chance of new gains, especially in the senate where the Democratic Party has a real chance of winning 56 seats and even maybe 57 with AZ-Sen.

For the US House, the Democratic Party is not having the enough improvement in the last months of the campaign for fighting hard for the majority of chamber. The Republicans take advantage from the last process and it worked enough well for keeping their majority in low risk level.

ABGIN'S ALERT

I add the bolded races to my call from the Defensive side of the cycle. It is a positive call to increase the work in races that still need it. Many of the races need only a little help. An early improvement would be very positive for many of these races. Few of them would be competitive until the end.

Alert:

VT-LG: C Gekas (D) (fundraising deficit)
IL-10: B Schneider (D) (fundraising deficit)
IL-17: C Bustos (D) (fundraising deficit)
FL-10: V Demings (D)
MO-SS: J Kander (D)
CA-07: A Bera (D) Orange to Blue
CA-52: S Peters (D)
NC-LG: L Coleman (D) (fundraising deficit)
MA-06: J Tierney (D) (fundraising deficit)
CO-07: E Perlmutter (D) (fundraising deficit)
AZ-01: A Kirkpatrick (D)
NV-Sen: S Berkley (D)
CA-26: J Brownley (D) (fundraising deficit)
IA-03: L Boswell (D) (fundraising deficit)
CA-41: M Takano (D) Orange to Blue (fundraising deficit)
UT-04: J Matheson (D)
NC-08: L Kissell (D)
NY-27: K Hochul (D)
MT-Sen: J Tester (D)
NV-04: S Horsford (D)
IA-01: B Braley (D)

Good poll results but some weakness:

ND-Sen: H Heitkamp (D) (fundraising deficit)
ND-SPI: T Potter (D) (fundraising deficit)
FL-02: A Lawson (D) (fundraising deficit)
IN-Sen: J Donnelly (D) (fundraising deficit)
MI-01: G McDowell (D) (fundraising deficit)
MN-08: R Nolan (D) Orange to Blue (fundraising deficit)
MT-LG: J Walsh (D)
MT-Gov: S Bullock (D)
FL-26: J Garcia (D) Orange to Blue
MA-Sen: E Warren (D) Orange to Blue
TX-14: N Lampson (D) (fundraising deficit)
NY-24: D Maffei (D) (fundraising deficit)
IL-11: W Foster (D) (fundrasing deficit)
CT-Sen: C Murphy (D) Orange to Blue (fundraising deficit)
PA-Sen: R Casey (D) (fundraising deficit)
IL-12: W Enyart (D) (fundraising deficit)
NH-Gov: M Hassan (D) (fundraising deficit)
CA-09: J McNerney (D) (fundraising deficit)
IL-13: D Gill (D) Orange to Blue (fundraising deficit)
NM-Sen: M Heinrich (D) Orange to Blue (fundraising deficit)
FL-22: L Frankel (D) Orange to Blue (fundraising deficit)
CA-33: H Waxman (D) (fundraising deficit)
CA-47: A Lowenthal (D) Orange to Blue (fundraising deficit)
OR-SS: K Brown (D) (fundraising deficit)
HI-Sen: M Hirono (D) Orange to Blue (fundraising deficit)
WV-AG: D McGraw (D) (fundraising deficit)

PS1: All the results in this diary are Rasmussen narrative free

PS2: I will update this diary until the election day.

Poll

Select the most difficult race for the Democratic Party

3%2 votes
4%3 votes
16%10 votes
0%0 votes
29%18 votes
0%0 votes
1%1 votes
19%12 votes
11%7 votes
1%1 votes
3%2 votes
1%1 votes
0%0 votes
1%1 votes
4%3 votes

| 61 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Nice breakdown (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    But I think you should have included MA Sen Brown(R) vs Warren(D) in the poll. I live in MA, the ads are really starting up, and it looks to be tight.

    "The less time you have, the more you need to use it wisely." - Cpt. Avatar, Starblazers

    by DeathDlr73 on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 01:51:24 PM PDT

    •  I have MA-Sen with a clear Democratic tilt (0+ / 0-)

      MA-Sen is not in the poll for being in a little better situation.

      I'm optimistic about the race.

      The poll has by one side the races where the numbers give me a better situation that other ratings, many of the races that I bold in the rank, and some Toss-Up races.

      Thank you very much )

      •  You have no idea.... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        abgin

        ...how much I hope you are right about the Dem tilt. It's only August, and Brown is pulling democrat politicians (former and current) out to speak in his ads. I'm just hoping the money truce holds.

        "The less time you have, the more you need to use it wisely." - Cpt. Avatar, Starblazers

        by DeathDlr73 on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 02:10:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The last polls (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DeathDlr73

          shows a small but consistent lead for E Warren in this race since march.

          This week Massachusetts is polled by PPP and we will have the results in three days as maximum. I hope their numbers keep the current trend.

          For being competitive S Brown must look to the Democratic people but that mean not he will be a winner. I imagine lots of Republicans pissed by his attitude, and the first damage for him will be to lose the dark Republican money. This time he will not have as big external support.

          •  Doing a great job of ticking off Dems, too (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            abgin

            Norquist pledge, voted for extending oil's tax breaks, voted against any tax cut extension. Can't wait for November.

            "The less time you have, the more you need to use it wisely." - Cpt. Avatar, Starblazers

            by DeathDlr73 on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 02:52:04 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Todd Akin seems imploding today (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    we will see where put him the numbers after this infamous scandal.

    MO-Sen will go again inside the defensive side of the cycle. Good news, without doubt.

    I will update my diaries after see the first numbers after the scandal.

  •  OR-SOS (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    PPP polled the race and found Kate up 48-30.

    •  OR-SofS (0+ / 0-)

      For the two last groups of the alert the alone bad detail in the races is to have a weak fundraising.

      My alert for these two last groups want to improve the fundraising a little for we can close de door to surprises from the safest races.

      It is just for keeping one eye on these races and provide enough help for the candidates involved on it before look forward.

      For these races only the victory would be a valid result for the Democratic Party.

      •  gotcha, (0+ / 0-)

        I'm not too worried, since Buehler polled worse than the two write-in candidates who won the primary for AG and Treasurer.  He's running his race as a conservative Republican, and a fairly arrogant one at that.  I don't think that's the way a Republican would win a statewide race in Oregon nowadays.

        That said, Kate's victory is indeed crucial.  She's a great advocate for clean and fair elections, and a good administrator as well.

        Romney. Ryan. Wrong.

        by James Allen on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:53:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  There are good news (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          I hope Avakian can also win his race that seems more competitive.

          In the first part of the cycle, before the polls and before the primaries, I was keeping one eye in the statewide offices in Washington and Oregon, because the open offices and the competitive races that many of them have in 2008. The situation has improved with the new data and I'm optimistic about both states.

          If you wish to see the diary again, I updated the data, correcting a little mistake and adding the bolded races to the alert. Now the alert has bigger size, but also has better structure.

  •  CA - 21¿? (0+ / 0-)

    I don't disagree with your call on ca21, but its no cinch either. Why no commentary?

    "Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of State and corporate power." -Benito Mussolini, Fascist dictator of Italy

    by hankmeister on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 10:16:00 PM PDT

    •  The rank give always a relative position (0+ / 0-)

      The rank give always a relative position of the race compared with other races.

      And inside every race also we have a relative position of the strength of the Democratic candidate and his Republican opponent.

      There is a detail that make down the relative position of many districts from California. It is the Democratic and the Republican turnout in the primary. Some Democratic candidates have a disadvantage from the primary that is being corrected in some cases releasing new polls.

      For CA-21 still we have not polls after the primary and that is giving more weight to the result of the primary in the mix for this district.

      The fundraising data of both sides also affect to the position of this race in the rank, and other details like the previous political experience of the candidates of both sides.

  •  A very thought provoking poll question (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ridemybike

    I really liked the poll here.  I think that of the races on your list, Larry Kissell is in the most danger, followed by John Barrow, although Joe Donnelly's race is likely to be a cliffhanger as well.  You can probably drop NV-4 from the list seeing as Tarkanian is likely to be bankrupt before the election.

    The one race up there that gets me is ND-Sen.  Heitkamp is running the campaign of her life.  Between her and McCaskill, the NRSC and the RNC were probably thinking they had those two in the bag, but Berg's a massively unpopular congressman and Todd Akin...well.  

    I have another Senate update coming next week, but let's just say I had both of those in the red column last month, and now both are certainly Tilt D contests if not Lean D, especially North Dakota where Heitkamp has consistent low to mid single digit leads in all non-Rasmussen polling.

    •  Thank you I glad you like (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ridemybike

      I glad the polls of these two diaries contribute to the people have a little more optimistic oppinion about some races.

      Taking into account that the first poll was done before the primary in Missouri and before the scandal of Akin, I think the prospect for these races is not bad.

  •  hi abgin! :-) great diary, as always! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    well... i think you'll likely have to update that MO senate race.

    akin is a sinking ship (not fast enough for me!!)

    btw, I do think you should write up a diary on basque mfg.
    I remember the diary you wrote sharing your home country with us. it was very well received (if I remember correctly).

    anyways, sorry I didn't get here sooner
    and it's nice to see people are a bit nicer in their comments :-)

    glad to "see" you, my friend :-)

    (thanks for the well wishes, too. i have a long recovery but hopefully will be back to normal)

    Toleration is the greatest gift of the mind; it requires the same effort of the brain that it takes to balance oneself on a bicycle. -Helen Keller

    by ridemybike on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 08:19:30 PM PDT

    •  Thank you ridemybike ) (0+ / 0-)

      I glad you like )

      Surely I have not enough credit still despite my numbers work so well in the predicting contest of Swing State Project for 2010 elections.

      Yes, surely I will write about my native country. I will think about it and find interesting things. The manufacturing is a good theme. Today also announced early elections for the October 21.

      Thank you ridemybike, you are very kind, as always.

      Nice to have you as friend )

  •  I love how you always put (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, sapelcovits

    "P.S. All the results in this diary are Rasmussen narrative free."

    It's like Rasmussen is trans fat, or gluten, or something.

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