This is my first diary looking forward, looking at the gains. Until now I have looked back more in the spirit of detecting the troubles in must-win races and noting the need for a solution. At this point of the cycle, there are still some unsolved problems, but the majority of the problems show signs of improvement.
This diary will give a rank of the offices that are in the position of being counted as gains. The offices that are in easier positions and tie the number of offices in Democratic hands at the beginning of the cycle are in a previous diary called The defensive side of the cycle.
The ranking is based on numerical rules, the same for all the races, that take into account the PVI (Partisan Voting Index) of every constituency, the relative strength of the candidates of both parties, the fundraising, the polls and the primaries that mix candidates of both parties (WA, CA). As always, no-Rasmussen numbers.
The rank takes numbers for both sides. You can see a stronger Democrat back another weaker Democrat, but that is possible because of the strength of their Republican opponents. It is not the same to run versus a Republican incumbent as versus a new candidate, that may be a weak fundraiser.
MIXED RANKING FOR GAINS IN ALL THE LEVELS
192: NV-04 D+3 S Horsford (D)
---- MT-Sen R+7 J Tester (D) DEMOCRATIC VICTORY
193: NY-27 R+9 K Hochul (D)
194: NC-08 R+11 L Kissell (D)
195: UT-04 R+12 J Matheson (D)
196: CA-41 D+6 M Takano (D) DEMOCRATIC VICTORY
197: IA-03 R+1 L Boswell (D)
198: CA-26 D+3 J Brownley (D) DEMOCRATIC VICTORY
---- NV-Sen D+1 S Berkley (D)
199: AZ-01 R+5 A Kirkpatrick (D)
200: CO-07 D+4 E Perlmutter (D) DEMOCRATIC VICTORY
201: MA-06 D+4 J Tierney (D)
---- NC-LG R+4 L Coleman (D)
202: CA-52 D+2 S Peters (D) DEMOCRATIC VICTORY
203: CA-07 R+2 A Bera (D)
---- MO-SS R+3 J Kander (D)
204: FL-10 R+6 V Demings (D)
205: IL-17 D+7 C Bustos (D) DEMOCRATIC VICTORY
206: IL-10 D+10 B Schneider (D)
207: CO-06 D+1 J Miklosi (D)
208: WI-08 D+1 J Wall (D)
209: NH-01 EVEN C Shea-Porter (D)
210: WI-07 EVEN P Kreitlow (D)
211: NY-18 R+1 S Maloney (D)
212: FL-18 R+2 P Murphy (D)
213: NY-23 R+3 N Shinagawa (D)
214: CA-36 R+3 R Ruiz (D)
215: CA-10 R+3 J Hernández (D)
216: MI-03 R+3 S Pestka (D)
---- MO-LG R+3 S Montee (D)
217: IN-02 R+3 B Mullen (D)
218: TX-23 R+3 P Gallego (D)
219: OH-14 R+4 D Blanchard (D)
---- NC-CL R+4 J Brooks (D)
220: IA-04 R+5 C Vilsack (D)
221: CO-03 R+5 S Pace (D)
222: OH-16 R+6 B Sutton (D)
---- AZ-Sen R+6 R Carmona (D)
---- IN-SPI R+6 G Ritz (D)
223: MT-AL R+6 K Gillan (D)
224: OH-06 R+8 C Wilson (D)
225: NC-09 R+8 J Roberts (D)
226: SD-AL R+8 M Varilek (D)
227: FL-06 R+8 H Beaven (D)
---- ND-PSC2 R+10 B Crabtree (D)
228: MN-06 R+10 J Graves (D)
---- NE-Sen R+13 R Kerrey (D)
229: NC-11 R+13 H Rogers (D)
---- MT-AG R+7 P Bucy (D)
---- VT-LG D+13 C Gekas (D)
230: NV-03 D+1 J Oceguera (D)
231: NY-19 EVEN J Schreibman (D)
232: CA-21 R+1 J Hernández (D)
233: FL-13 R+2 J Ehrlich (D)
234: MI-11 R+3 S Taj (D)
235: NE-02 R+3 J Ewing (D)
---- NC-Gov R+4 W Dalton (D)
---- NC-CA R+4 W Smith (D)
My calculus gives numbers that agree in the large majority of races with other analyses. There are not many significant differences. As an example, if you take the house chart of The Huffington Post (based on the rating charts of C Cook, L Sabato and S Rothemberg) you can find in my 206 first seats, the 203 that they have in the blue part + Toss-Up with only 5 exceptions (NH-01, TX-23, OH-16, NY-22 and NY-23), while in my 206 first seats there are 8 that they do not have in their 203 (TX-14, FL-02, NY-27, NC-08, UT-04, IA-03, MA-06 and FL-10).
As part of my opinion, I bold emphasized the races where the Democratic Party has being fighting with better conditions to win. But in the last days of the campaign seems difficult to win all.
As I was expecting the cycle has been more a fight in defensive terms for the Democratic Party, but now, in the end of the cycle, there is still the chance of new gains, especially in the senate where the Democratic Party has a real chance of winning 56 seats and even maybe 57 with AZ-Sen.
For the US House, the Democratic Party is not having the enough improvement in the last months of the campaign for fighting hard for the majority of chamber. The Republicans take advantage from the last process and it worked enough well for keeping their majority in low risk level.
ABGIN'S ALERT
I add the bolded races to my call from the Defensive side of the cycle. It is a positive call to increase the work in races that still need it. Many of the races need only a little help. An early improvement would be very positive for many of these races. Few of them would be competitive until the end.
Alert:
VT-LG: C Gekas (D) (fundraising deficit)
IL-10: B Schneider (D) (fundraising deficit)
IL-17: C Bustos (D) (fundraising deficit)
FL-10: V Demings (D)
MO-SS: J Kander (D)
CA-07: A Bera (D) Orange to Blue
CA-52: S Peters (D)
NC-LG: L Coleman (D) (fundraising deficit)
MA-06: J Tierney (D) (fundraising deficit)
CO-07: E Perlmutter (D) (fundraising deficit)
AZ-01: A Kirkpatrick (D)
NV-Sen: S Berkley (D)
CA-26: J Brownley (D) (fundraising deficit)
IA-03: L Boswell (D) (fundraising deficit)
CA-41: M Takano (D) Orange to Blue (fundraising deficit)
UT-04: J Matheson (D)
NC-08: L Kissell (D)
NY-27: K Hochul (D)
MT-Sen: J Tester (D)
NV-04: S Horsford (D)
IA-01: B Braley (D)
Good poll results but some weakness:
ND-Sen: H Heitkamp (D) (fundraising deficit)
ND-SPI: T Potter (D) (fundraising deficit)
FL-02: A Lawson (D) (fundraising deficit)
IN-Sen: J Donnelly (D) (fundraising deficit)
MI-01: G McDowell (D) (fundraising deficit)
MN-08: R Nolan (D) Orange to Blue (fundraising deficit)
MT-LG: J Walsh (D)
MT-Gov: S Bullock (D)
FL-26: J Garcia (D) Orange to Blue
MA-Sen: E Warren (D) Orange to Blue
TX-14: N Lampson (D) (fundraising deficit)
NY-24: D Maffei (D) (fundraising deficit)
IL-11: W Foster (D) (fundrasing deficit)
CT-Sen: C Murphy (D) Orange to Blue (fundraising deficit)
PA-Sen: R Casey (D) (fundraising deficit)
IL-12: W Enyart (D) (fundraising deficit)
NH-Gov: M Hassan (D) (fundraising deficit)
CA-09: J McNerney (D) (fundraising deficit)
IL-13: D Gill (D) Orange to Blue (fundraising deficit)
NM-Sen: M Heinrich (D) Orange to Blue (fundraising deficit)
FL-22: L Frankel (D) Orange to Blue (fundraising deficit)
CA-33: H Waxman (D) (fundraising deficit)
CA-47: A Lowenthal (D) Orange to Blue (fundraising deficit)
OR-SS: K Brown (D) (fundraising deficit)
HI-Sen: M Hirono (D) Orange to Blue (fundraising deficit)
WV-AG: D McGraw (D) (fundraising deficit)
PS1: All the results in this diary are Rasmussen narrative free
PS2: I will update this diary until the election day.