Politico has a detailed interview with David Axelrod of the Obama campaign which is a pretty interesting read. This was discussed in an earlier diary: Uplifting Axelrod Interview
One note in the article (attributed to an Obama campaign official) is that Team Obama believes that it has 247 electoral votes that are either 'solid' or 'leaning' Obama and that Romney has 191.
That result is pretty close to the current Real Clear Politics electoral map (O: 237, R: 191). In trying to examine the 10 EV difference between the two maps, there are a few possible outcomes: The Obama folks think Wisconsin (10 EV) is a lean Obama state notwithstanding the Ryan pick. Or, the Obama folks think that Nevada (6 EV) or Iowa (6 EV) + New Hampshire (4 EV) are in the lean Obama category and Wisconsin is in the tossup category. Interestingly, both RCP and the Obama campaign believe North Carolina is a true toss-up.
Team Obama believes that if they win Florida (29 EVs) they win the whole thing and that they have more paths to 270 than Romney does.
Assuming Team Obama's numbers for the time being, they need 23 EVs to get to 270. An Ohio strategy would require winning Ohio plus another tossup that is greater than 4 EVs (meaning any tossup but NH). A Florida strategy is just that, win FL and it's over. Forget everything else.
A Virginia strategy involves a combination of VA + 10 EVs (WI; NC; CO + NH, NV, IA; OH)
A Colorado strategy involves a combo of CO + 13 EVs (VA; NC; WI +NH, NV, IA or OH)
An Ohio strategy involves a combo of OH + 5 EVs (NV, IA, NC, VA, WI)
My thoughts:
It's not clear to me whether WI is in the lean Obama camp or whether NH + IA or NV are in the lean Obama camp. Judging by ad spend, it would seem that WI is still considered lean Obama. If team Obama is wrong about that, then the count is 237, not 247 and the math above changes and big state wins may be more or less essential. Recent polling suggests a tightening. PPP has tweeted that Romney has an 'ever so slight' lead in WI in their poll (translation, Romney +1) and Ras also has Romney +1, so there is a bump there. Not sure whether Team Obama thinks it will need to invest there. PPP looks to be Romney +1 and CNN is Obama +4. The average is Obama +2.5, so who knows?
The campaign itinerary of the Obama team seems to reflect this multi-tier approach to reach 270. For the bulk of August, Obama has been spending time in smaller battlegrounds (IA, NH, NV (this week)), as candidate visits at this stage are generally not that common, they get great local press coverage, motivate supporters and impose a cost-benefit analysis (of time & money) on the other side.
Compared to Kerry and Gore, this shows confidence in their numbers. These small states matter precisely because they are competitive in big states and small states alike.
Ohio makes things easier but is not the knockout punch it used to be. You still need 1 other state to win. However, Obama is in a rare position to win the election without carrying anything in the South (I believe he'll win 2-3 states in the South, but if this turns into Bush v. Kerry type race, the edge is with Obama because of strength in the west).
The investment in North Carolina is worth every penny. We can win it, but Romney absolutely cannot afford to lose it. The convention is worth it just to hang out there for a week.
The Ryan pick means nothing unless he helps Romney nab Wisconsin. He is not the game changer that the media are making him out to be. He starts out as a net negative choice because of his unpopular plan's potential to define the Romney agenda (plus his 'war against women' agenda). He could be a net positive if he turns his home state (which is why he is trying to sound like a liberal Democrat on medicare).
The Obama team does not believe SuperPac money is going to beat them (so long as they have enough money to compete). I think they see the value of message coordination with daily/weekly shifts in the campaign. Superpacs cannot adhere to that.
All in all the Obama campaign has the long-view in mind. This August period is slow and nerve-racking for us, especially since their convention is coming up. They are getting better press coverage over the last 1 week since the Ryan pick, and will have good coverage during their convention. However, they have also made mistakes during these 2 weeks. They have conceded the argument to us on Medicare. They sound like old school liberals who don't want to cut or reform anything. They've got Akin and the war against women as a new albatross to deal with. They will be in trouble on alternative energy issues (like the wind power tax credit in Iowa). They have not talked about the economy almost all month. Can't believe that can be good for them.
We ultimately have to wait to see where the race is one week after our convention. Then we will know whether this electoral map holds up or not.