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Welcome to my final diary on the House baseline.  This diary will take us through the final US region, the Pacific Coast, as well as provide a final compilation of where we stand on August 21, 11 weeks out from Election Day 2012.

Region 10 – The Pacific Coast

This is the final region in our trip across the United States.  This is one region that for the most part resisted the red wave of 2010, as the Republicans only managed to pick up a few seats and actually lost one in HI-1.  Thanks to independent redistricting in both California and Washington, there is opportunity for the Democrats to gain seats, and they will need to if they have any designs on the majority.  The Pacific Coast region consists of the states of California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, and Hawaii.  

One last time, let’s sum up the other regions of the country:

Northeast Region:
Democrats pick up NH-1, NH-2, NY-24, lose 1 seat in redistricting in MA
Republicans pick up no seats
Swing – Democrats +2.5

Mid-Atlantic Region:
Democrats pick up NJ-3, MD-6, lose 2 seats in redistricting, one in PA, one in NJ
Republicans pick up no seats
Swing – Democrats +1

Upper South Region:
Democrats pick up no seats
Republicans pick up NC-8, NC-11, NC-13
Swing – Republicans +3

South Atlantic Region:
Democrats pick up FL-18, win new seats in FL-9 and FL-22
Republicans pick up no seats, win new seats in SC-7 and GA-14
Swing – Democrats +1

Eastern Great Lakes Region:
Democrats pick up OH-16, MI-1, MI-11, lose 1 seat in redistricting in MI
Republicans pick up no seats
Swing – Democrats +2.5

Gulf Coast Region:
Democrats pick up no seats
Republicans pick up no seats, lose 1 seat in redistricting in LA
Swing – Democrats +.5

Western Great Lakes Region:
Democrats pick up IL-8, IL-10, IL-11, IL-16, MN-8
Republicans pick up no seats, lose 1 seat in redistricting in IL
Swing – Democrats +5.5

Central Plains Region:
Democrats pick up IA-4, lose one seat in redistricting in Missouri
Republicans pick up IA-3, AR-4, OK-2, lose one seat in redistricting in Iowa
Swing – Republicans +2

Rocky Mountain Region:
Democrats pick up CO-6, AZ-1, win new seats in AZ-9 and NV-4
Republicans pick up no seats, win new seat in UT-2
Swing – Democrats +2.5

National Swing – Democrats +10.5

HI-1 – We’ll start in the Aloha state, where after a special election 3-way led to a takeover by the GOP, Colleen Hanabusa tried again in November, and won the seat against Republican Charles Djou.  These two, with one victory each, are now headed for a rubber match this year.  Hanabusa has twice the money raised and cash on hand as Djou, plus the district is hugely democratic at D+11.  Hanabusa should win easily.
Rating – Safe D

HI-2 – The other seat in Hawaii is open as Mazie Hirono is running for the Senate.  The democratic primary saw Honolulu City Councilwoman Tulsi Gabbard defeat former mayor Mufi Hannemann.  The D primary was akin to the election here, since it is a 70+% Obama district.
Rating – Safe D

AK-1 – In the great white north, Don Young has been around seemingly forever.  One would expect that if he can’t be defeated by a top notch challenger in the midst of scandal like 2008, he’ll never lose.  Still, 2008 primary candidate Frank Vondersaar and state representative Sharon Cissna are going to try to beat him.  I think Young is unliked by enough people to make it closer than it should be, but a win is unlikely.
Rating – Likely R

WA-1 – Moving down into the Evergreen State now, and the first district is a democratic-leaning swing seat that extends from the Canadian border down into Seattle’s northeastern suburbs.  The democratic primary here was a serious mashup, and saw two former WA-8 candidates, Darcy Burner and Susan Delbene, fight for top billing.  Delbene ultimately won, putting her up against 2010 WA-2 candidate John Koster.  You’d think Koster would have the cash lead right now after the D primary, but Delbene actually leads him 217k to 92k, and that margin would be much bigger considering Delbene has raised 2.47 million this cycle.  At this point I expect a Delbene victory, though it won’t be a blowout.
Rating – Leans Democratic

WA-2 – The 2nd district is a marine district that surrounds the Puget Sound north of Seattle.  Rick Larsen is the democrat here, and he should be safe in this 60% Obama seat.  Republican Dan Matthews is running against Larsen, but he’s never held elected office and only holds 140k in the bank.  
Rating – Safe D

WA-3 – The 3rd district covers the southwestern part of the state.  It’s definitely swing territory, one that Obama won 51-47 in 2008.  Jamie Herrera is the GOP representative here, and she’s well positioned to hold the seat.  Her fundraising has been strong at 1.29 million raised and 740k in the bank.  The democratic candidate is Jon Haugen, a former state senate candidate.  You’d think he’d be a good get, but his fundraising has been awful to this point.  He’s definitely the underdog.
Rating – Likely R

WA-4 – The 4th district covers rural territory in the state’s center.  Its by far the most republican district in the state, one that GOP rep Doc Hastings should hold easily.  Democrat Mary Baechler is running against him, but good luck.  
Rating – Safe R

WA-5 – The Spokane-based 5th district is held by Cathy McMorris-Rodgers, one of the most entrenched incumbents you’ll find.  The district was won by McCain by 5% in 2008.  Hard to imagine democrat Rich Cowan pulling this out.
Rating – Safe R

WA-6 – This seat on the Olympic Peninsula is open.  On the democratic side, Derek Kilmer is the likely candidate, and he’s raised 900k so far and has 620k in the bank.  For the republicans, Bill Driscoll is the likely candidate, he’s put up 870k raised and 513k in the bank.  The district is fairly democratic at 57% Obama, which puts it just a tick further left than WA-1.  Driscoll will have to run a great campaign to win, but he’s got the resources to do so.
Rating – Leans Democratic

WA-7 – This district is based on central Seattle.  Jim McDermott is safe.
Rating – Safe D

WA-8 – This seat stretches from Seattle’s easten suburbs across the Cascades into more red territory.  At 51-47 Obama, it could be a democratic district someday, but with republican Dave Reichert holding down the fort, that isn’t likely to happen anytime soon.  He’s got about 570k in cash on hand if he needs it.  The democratic candidate is Karen Porterfield, a political novice who doesn’t have a whole lot of cash, just 31k at the moment.
Rating – Safe R

WA-9 – Adam Smith holds this southern Seattle district for the democrats.  At D+15, its very solidly blue and not changing over anytime soon.
Rating – Safe D

WA-10 – This is the new district, centered on Olympia and Tacoma.  It is 58% Obama.  The democrats landed their best potential candidate in 2010 WA-3 candidate Dennis Heck, who probably would have won that seat in any year except a giant red wave.  He’s got 1.4 million raised and 1 million on hand, which puts him nearly 1 million up on his republican challenger, Pierce County Councilor Stan Flemming.  This looks like an easy new district pickup right now.
Rating – Safe D
Regional Swing – Democrats +.5
National Swing – Democrats +11

OR-1 – Moving into the Beaver State (or Duck State if you prefer), this district stretches from Portland to the Pacific Ocean in the northwest of the state.  Suzanne Bonamici won a special election here following David Wu’s resignation, and she’s in the driver’s seat to retain in November.  The republican candidate is Delinda Morgan, a cashless nobody.  
Rating – Safe D

OR-2 – Greg Walden is the lone republican in Oregon’s House delegation, no surprise as this takes in the whole state west of the Cascades.  Walden is sitting on a 1.3 million warchest, which he probably won’t have to tap into much against underfunded democrat Joyce Segers.
Rating – Safe R

OR-3 – This district centers on Portland and is extremely democratic.  Earl Blumenauer will easily win re-election.
Rating – Safe D

OR-4 – This seat takes in most of southwest Oregon, including the college towns of Corvallis and Eugene as well as much of the Pacific Coast.  On paper the district is swingy at 55% Obama, but Peter Defazio is one of the most entrenched incumbents in the nation.  2010 candidate Art Robinson is back for another run at Defazio, but he’s trailing 451k to 27k in cash on hand.  
Rating – Safe D

OR-5 – This swing seat in western Oregon was the site of the one close race in 2010, but Kurt Schrader held off the challenge by Team Red.  He’s raised funds well this cycle in expectation of a strong challenge this cycle, as he’s got nearly 900k in the bank, however the republican nominee, Fred Thompson (no, not that Fred Thompson) has raised virtually no cash.  One thing is certain, republican recruitment in Oregon was an epic fail this cycle.
Rating – Safe D

CA-1 – We move now into the 50th and final state, the Golden State of California.  This first district takes in a lot of rural territory in the state’s northeast.  Wally Herger is retiring, but it should be an easy hold for the GOP as McCain won by 11% in 2008.  State Senator Doug LaMalfa is the republican candidate here, and the democrat is James Reed.  Odd that LaMalfa is struggling on the fundraising front, raising just 510k and having only 124k in the bank, just barely ahead of Reed in that department.  This was a lot of the same territory that nearly elected Charlie Brown over Tom McClintock in 2008, so I’m keeping it in play for now.
Rating – Likely Republican

CA-2 – This district covers the northwest coast of California, with its population anchor in Marin County.  Lynn Woolsey is retiring, which set off a contested top-2 primary, in which democrat Jared Huffman and republican Daniel Roberts emerged.  Huffman should win the general easily in this D+19 seat.
Rating – Safe D

CA-3 – This seat stretches north and west of Sacramento, and is home to representative John Garamendi.  At 55% Obama, it is fairly swingish.  What’s more troubling is that Garamendi only has about 160k in the bank, putting him behind the republican candidate, Kim Vann, by 73k.  Vann is a political novice though, as this is her first run for elected office.  If Garamendi sleepwalks through this the seat could turn over, but I don’t expect that.  He’ll need to pick up the fundraising pace though.
Rating – Leans Democratic

CA-4 – This district stretches from Lake Tahoe down through the Sierra Nevada range.  It is solidly republican and home to Tom McClintock.  McClintock suffers from the same ills as Garamendi in that he has less than 100k in cash on hand.  Luckily for him, democratic candidate Jack Uppal doesn’t have much cash either and is a political novice.  That won’t cause an R+10 seat to turn over.
Rating – Safe R

CA-5 – This seat covers much of Napa Valley, and stretches from north of Santa Rosa down through Vallejo.  Mike Thompson is the democratic representative, and he should win this D+18 seat easily over republican Randy Loftin in November.
Rating – Safe D

CA-6 – This seat centers on Sacramento.  Doris Matsui is the democratic representative here, and she won’t have any trouble holding the seat over republican Josephn McCray.
Rating – Safe D

CA-7 – Here we have our first truly competitive contest in California.  Dan Lungren has represented Sacramento’s eastern suburbs for a while now, but he’s very weak and vulnerable.  The district was won by Obama 51-46 in 2008.  Lungren has fundraised well, raising 1.7 million and holding 1.08 million in the bank.  The problem with that is that his 2010 opponent, physician Ami Bera, is back for a rematch and has fundraised better than any challenger in the country, raising 1.98 million and holding 1.44 million in the bank, way above Lungren’s total.  Bera ran strongly in 2010 despite the red wave, just not strongly enough to win.  This year, with a better district and a better year, I think he kicks the door down.
Rating – Toss Up / Tilt Democratic
Region Swing – Democrats +1.5
National Swing – Democrats +12

CA-8 – This seat is a virtual wasteland of desert, mountains, and pure wilderness stretching from Mono County to San Bernadino County.  Republican Jerry Lewis is retiring, which set up a free-for-all in the top 2 primary.  The one democrat in the race, Jackie Conaway, failed to advance, putting 2 republicans, Gregg Imus and Paul Cook, into the general election.
Rating – Safe R

CA-9 – This district takes in most of the San Joaquin Valley and is fairly swingy in most years.  Obama won 56-41 here in 2008, but there is cause for concern because republican challenger Ricky Gill has raised 1.78 million and holds 1.02 million in the bank, outstripping democratic representative Jerry McNerney.  To be fair, McNerney hasn’t been a slouch, raising 1.48 million and holding 889k in the bank.  Further, McNerney held on during the 2010 red wave against my expectations, in a redder district than the one he has now.  This still leans toward McNerney, but if Gill campaigns well this could be a nailbiter on election night.
Rating – Leans Democratic

CA-10 – This central valley district is centered on Modesto, and is home to representative Jeff Denham.  The seat is R+5 officially, but went for Obama 50-47 in 2008.  Denham is sitting on a nice warchest of 1.2 million in the bank, but his opponent, Jose Hernandez, has been doing well on the fundraising front, raising 844k and holding 460k in the bank, enough to run a capable challenge.  I’m not familiar with this area and whether its ancestrally D or R, my guess would be R, so Denham definitely has the edge.
Rating – Leans Republican

CA-11 – Moving into Contra Costa County now, George Miller represents a D+17 district east of the bay area.  Republican Virginia Fuller will need a small miracle to win.
Rating – Safe D

CA-12 – This is San Francisco, and home to House minority leader Nancy Pelosi.  As you can imagine, at D+35, this is one of the most democratic districts in the nation.
Rating – Safe D

CA-13 – This seat sits right across the bay from CA-12, centered on Oakland.  Barbara Lee is safe.
Rating – Safe D

CA-14 – Jackie Speier’s district occupies most of the east side of the bay south of San Francisco.  At D+23, Speier has nothing to worry about.
Rating – Safe D

CA-15 – This seat southeast of Oakland is solidly democratic, and was home to a nasty primary battle between incumbent Pete Stark and Dublin city councilman Eric Swalwell.  The two finished 1-2 in the top 2 primary, taking their fight to the general election but ensuring the district will stay blue.
Rating – Safe D

CA-16 – This district sits in the central valley, and goes from Merced down toward Fresno.  Jim Costa is the longtime rep here and he was extremely entrenched prior to redistricting.  As it stands he’ll be a tough out in this 57-40 Obama seat.  Republican Brian Whelan will give it a try.  He’s got 138k in the bank so far, but he’ll need more to be truly competitive.
Rating – Likely Democratic

CA-17 – This seat centers on Fremont and Santa Clara.  At D+17, Mike Honda won’t be sweating any bullets on election night.
Rating – Safe D

CA-18 – This seat is based in Palo Alto and the Silicon Valley part of California.  Virtually a carbon copy of CA-17 politically, Anna Eshoo is safe for another term.
Rating – Safe D

CA-19 – This seat takes in most of San Jose, along with rural territory to the southeast.  Zoe Lofgren is safe as this seat is very similar to CA-17 and CA-18 in PVI.
Rating – Safe D

CA-20 – This coastal seat runs down the coast through Monterey and Santa Cruz.  Even more democratic than the previous three districts, Sam Farr is safe.
Rating – Safe D

CA-21 – The central valley-based 21st is an incumbent-less district stretching from south of Fresno down into Bakersfield.  The district went 52-46 for Obama in 2008.  Unfortunately the democrats didn’t find a top tier candidate to contest the seat, as John Hernandez barely made it through the top 2 primary, and has no cash.  The republican, state assemblyman David Valadao, has about 660k in the bank.  Right now this looks like a major missed opportunity for Team Blue.
Rating – Safe R

CA-22 – This district is a bright red seat in the eastern part of the central valley.  Devin Nunes should be able to hold it despite the presence of a legit Dem challenger in former Sunnyvale mayor Otto Lee
Rating – Safe R

CA-23 – This is the most republican district in California.  Kevin McCarthy is safe.
Rating – Safe R

CA-24 – This district looks to be the GOP’s best shot at a pickup in CA this year, as they have former Lt Governor Abel Maldonado running against representative Lois Capps.  To her credit, Capps has fundraised at a frantic pace this cycle, at 2.16 million raised and 1 million in the bank.  Maldonado’s pace has been roughly half that in both raised and burn rate.  The district is definitely redder than Capps’s old district, but at 56% Obama, she has to be considered the favorite to win.
Rating – Leans Democratic

CA-25 – Buck McKeon’s district consists of the far northern suburbs and exurbs of Los Angeles, including places like Lancaster and Palmdale.  It went barely for Obama 49-48 in 2008, but McKeon is pretty well entrenched.  Strangely though, McKeon only holds about 300k in cash on hand.  Democrat Lee Rogers is in the race, but he doesn’t have hardly any cash either.  I predict a republican hold unless McKeon totally sleepwalks.
Rating – Likely Republican

CA-26 – This seat formerly held by Elton Gallegly, has become much more democratic at 56-41 Obama, and takes in places like Thousand Oaks and Oxnard.  Gallegly ran, as did fellow republican David Dreier, whose seat got chopped to bits.  What you have now is a battle between republican State Senator Tony Strickland and State Assemblywoman Julia Brownley.  Strickland has been extremely strong on the fundraising front, raising 1.41 million and holding 408k on hand.  Brownley has raised 923k but had to use a lot of that money in the top 2 primary, which has her down to 323k on hand at the moment.  I have little doubt that she’ll recover in fundraising though.  Both have impressive political resumes, so this will be a spirited fight, one of the toughest calls I’ve had to make in the whole country.  By a whisker, I have Strickland holding on for the GOP at the moment.
Rating – Toss Up / Tilt Republican

CA-27 -  The 27th district is based in Pasadena and other suburbs north and east of LA.  Judy Chu looks safe as the republican opposition is nominal.
Rating – Safe D

CA-28 – This district takes in northern LA suburbs like Burbank and Glendale.  Adam Schiff is safe in this D+20 seat.
Rating – Safe D

CA-29 – This incumbent-less district takes in most of the San Fernando Valley.  It is very solidly democratic, and democrat Tony Cardenas is unopposed save for an independent challenger.
Rating – Safe D

CA-30 – This is the site of a brutal intraparty battle between representatives Brad Sherman and Howard Berman.  But they both advanced to the general election, meaning this seat stays blue no matter what.
Rating – Safe D

CA-31 – This district is a poster-child for why top 2 primaries suck.  This district, based in San Bernadino, is nominally democratic, and went 56-41 for Obama.  Yet somehow, due to a 3-way split in the democratic primary vote, 2 republicans, incumbent Gary Miller and State Senator Bob Dutton, advanced to the general election.  That result takes what would’ve been a toss up race off the board completely.  SMH.
Rating – Safe R

CA-32 – This San Gabriel Valley seat is held by Grace Napolitano.  It’s D+10, and there doesn’t seem to be much republican resistance here.
Rating – Safe D

CA-33 – This coastal district west of LA takes in Beverly Hills and Santa Monica.  Henry Waxman will have no problem winning here.
Rating – Safe D

CA-34 – Heading into the urban jungle now, this district takes in downtown LA.  Xavier Becerra is safe.
Rating – Safe D

CA-35 – This district takes in cities like Ontario, Fontana, and Pomona.  Joe Baca is the democrat here and he sits in a 65% Obama seat.  No republican ran here, so the general election is against state senator Gloria McLeod.
Rating – Safe D

CA-36 – This seat centers in Riverside County, and is home to Mary Bono-Mack, a seemingly always vulnerable incumbent that gets by every cycle.  The seat is fairly competitive, one that Obama won 50-47 in 2008.  Bono Mack has fundraised well, raising 1.47 million, but holds just 605k on hand.  The democratic candidate, Raul Ruiz, has done well on this front, raising 847k and holding 625k on hand.  It’s always ominous for an incumbent to be trailing on the money front and polling indicates that this is a single digit race already.  Since House challengers usually outperform their polling numbers on election night, I feel safe putting this in the lean category, and its closer to Toss Up than Likely.
Rating – Leans Republican

CA-37 – We’re back in the heart of LA now.  Karen Bass’s seat is one of the nation’s most democratic.  Safe.
Rating – Safe D

CA-38 – Linda Sanchez represents a 61% Obama seat.  The district isn’t likely to be competitive as the republican opposition is very nominal.  
Rating – Safe D

CA-39 – This Orange County district is home to Ed Royce.  He’s sat in a cushy Safe R seat for a while, but this seat is much more marginal as McCain won by just 2% in 2008.  Virtually none of the pundits have this race as competitive but this could be a major sleeper.  Democrat Jay Chen, a member of the Hacienda-La Puente school board, has raised 500k this cycle and holds 406k on hand.  Meanwhile, not only is Royce trailing in the money race, he’s actually in debt by 300k!  Not sure what that’s all about, but given that he hasn’t campaigned hard in a while and doesn’t have the cash to do so anyway, Royce could be in trouble.  The DCCC should invest here.
Rating – Leans Republican

CA-40 – This is another LA-based seat, one in which McCain got a sterling 19%.  No republican filed here, so Lucille Roybal-Allard will be back, provided she doesn’t lose the general to democrat David Sanchez.
Rating – Safe D

CA-41 – This is a 59% Obama district that is incumbent-less.  Riverside County Supervisor John Tavaglione is running for the republicans, and Riverside Community College Trustee Mark Takano is running for the democrats.  Both have raised similar amounts of cash at 790k and 758k so far but Tavaglione is up 452k to 243k in cash on hand as Takano spent some of his loot in the primary round.  Given the blue hue of the district, I have to figure Takano is favored unless he struggles on the campaign trail.  
Rating – Leans Democratic

CA-42 – Ken Calvert got dealt a great hand in redistricting, getting his district shored up to just 43% Obama.  2010 candidate Michael Williamson is the democratic candidate.  Calvert should win easily.
Rating – Safe R

CA-43 – Embattled representative Maxine Waters inhabits this LA-based seat.  It’s conceivable that she might lose to democrat Bob Flores in the general election, but either way the seat stays blue.
Rating – Safe D

CA-44 – This LA-based seat is the site of an intraparty battle between Janice Hahn and Laura Richardson.  Given Richardson’s ethical trouble, Hahn should win.  
Rating – Safe D

CA-45 – This seat is somewhat republican at 51-46 McCain, a betterment for incumbent republican John Campbell who was sitting in a somewhat more democratic arrangement before.  You’d think he’d have it easy, but democratic Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang jumped into the race to try to knock him off.  Campbell may have been caught somewhat flat-footed by this, as he holds just 323k cash on hand, barely ahead of Kang’s 256k.  Still, I thought Kang would be doing somewhat better.  The district is tough, but if Kang campaigns well and Obama runs strongly in Orange County again, this could be possible.
Rating – Likely Republican

CA-46 – This lean democratic seat south of LA is home to Loretta Sanchez.  She was nearly knocked off 2 years ago and has fundraised well this cycle, taking in 1.36 million and holding 860k on hand.  A strong challenge never materialized though, as republican candidate Jerry Hayden is a political novice without much cash.  That won’t cut it in a 59% Obama district.
Rating – Safe D

CA-47 – This seat is virtually identical to CA-46 politically, but it is open.  You had contested primaries on both sides of the ledger here.  The republican winner was Long Beach city councilman Gary DeLong.  The democratic candidate is Alan Lowenthal.  The fundraising game is close, but a slight edge to DeLong at 317k to 231k.  Given his increased political experience, this might be a tougher out for Team Blue than expected in a district Obama won by 19%.
Rating – Leans Democratic

CA-48 – This coastal seat is home to Dana Rohrabacher.  The seat got shored up a bit in redistricting, going from 49-49 to 51-46 McCain.  Rohrabacher appears to be a bit short of cash at the moment, which is good, but democratic candidate Ron Varasteh doesn’t have much coin either.  He’s going to need it if he’s going to win this republican leaning seat.
Rating – Safe R

CA-49 – Darrell Issa is a testament to the idea that while there aren’t that many republicans in California these days, the ones that are there are crazy, crazy, crazy.  His district actually became a 49-48 Obama seat, but he’s got a nice warchest of nearly 800k, and his democratic challenger, Jerry Tetalman, is a cashless Some Dude.  Too bad.
Rating – Safe R

CA-50 – This seat covers the red, red interior of San Diego County.  Duncan Hunter is safe.
Rating – Safe R

CA-51 – This seat sits in San Diego, while jogging south along the border to pick up Imperial County.  It’s open, but at 65% Obama I don’t expect the republicans to mount much of a challenge here.
Rating – Safe D

CA-52 – This is the final competitive seat in the nation.  It lies just north of San Diego.  Brian Bilbray has watched this turf slide out from under him quite rapidly, and now he finds himself in a 55-43 Obama seat.  San Diego Port Commission Chair Scott Peters is Bilbray’s opponent, and he’s been very impressive on the fundraising front, raising 1.98 million so far.  He had to spend most of that on a brutal top 2 primary though, so Bilbray despite having just 668k in the bank is well ahead in that department now.  I have little doubt that will change down the stretch though.  Bilbray is a shrewd campaigner, but Peters clearly isn’t a slouch either.  I think he wins a close one.
Rating – Toss Up / Tilt Democratic (democratic pickup)
Region Swing – Democrats +2.5
National Swing – Democrats +13

CA-53 – The final seat is a seat centered on San Diego.  It’s only 61% Obama, but Susan Davis looks to be safe as the republican opposition here looks to be token at best.
Rating – Safe D

Region Wrapup:  When I did this region, I initially thought that CA-41 was a pickup, but I reconciled my final numbers with the current party distribution of 242-193, and it doesn’t appear that it is.  Either that, or I made a mistake somewhere else.  At any rate, I have the democrats winning the new seat in Washington (WA-10), plus picking up CA-7 and CA-52 for a 2.5 seat gain in the Pacific Coast region.  That gives the Democrats an advantage of +13 in the national swing, for a final national projection of 229-206.  

The House Equal Area Projection Map:

[IMG]http://i763.photobucket.com/...[/IMG]

This map lists every district of the United States in terms of ratings, with the different colors representing the different race ratings.  The darker blues represent safe D seats, the darker reds safe R, and the green tossups.  The key/dashboard in the bottom right of the map tells you everything you need to know about how many seats are in what columns and where I expect the chips to fall were the election to be held today.  Keep in mind that this is not a final prediction, I expect these ratings to change quite a bit between now and November 5th.  Again, the current score when tilts are included is 229 Republican, 206 Democrat, for a change of Democrats +13.  

Beginning next week, these House ratings will be merged in with my Presidential and Senate ratings, and updated once each week between now and Election Night.  It's going to be a wild ride folks.

Poll

What will be the final net swing in House seats from 2010 to 2012?

2%2 votes
1%1 votes
6%6 votes
10%9 votes
14%13 votes
20%18 votes
23%21 votes
11%10 votes
6%6 votes
3%3 votes

| 89 votes | Vote | Results

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  •  I disagree on CA-26 (4+ / 0-)

    I think it should be Toss up/Tilt Democratic. I  have heard that Brownley is fundraising really strongly, the ground game is going well for her and a poll has been released showing her ahead. Also, she seems to have adapted well to the district.

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

    by Alibguy on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 02:57:00 PM PDT

  •   (4+ / 0-)

    "CA-10 – This central valley district is centered on Modesto, and is home to representative Jeff Denham.  The seat is R+5 officially, but went for Obama 50-47 in 2008.  Denham is sitting on a nice warchest of 1.2 million in the bank, but his opponent, Jose Hernandez, has been doing well on the fundraising front, raising 844k and holding 460k in the bank, enough to run a capable challenge.  I’m not familiar with this area and whether its ancestrally D or R, my guess would be R, so Denham definitely has the edge.
    Rating – Leans Republican"

    Ancestrally, back to the mid 20th century, it was conservative Democratic.  But this was at the same time that SF and LA were ancestrally Republican.

    Since then it has mostly been in a Democratic district, but sandwiched in between two areas heavily and carefully drawn for a moderate Democrat.  I suspect the area itself went mostly for R.

    But in the western part of the district are new housing areas which are the outer burbs of SF.  Since these housing areas were built

    1) Gas prices exploded, causing the cost of the commute to SF Bay to skyrocket

    2) The economy collapsed.

    3) also, many of the new housing was built in community housing areas, responsible for bonds for the general improvements to make housing responsible.  I dont know for certain, but at the time there wwere article in the newspapers speculating that if the housing boom collapsed, homeowners in these areas would be responsilbe for much more of these bond costs than originally forecast.
    I would speculate that there have been major forecosures in the area.

    I suspect that over time, as the economy improves and the housing recovers, the area will gradually reflect the political views of the general SF Bay area, but in the meantime will be lean or likely R.

  •  good job (5+ / 0-)

    I think you're putting too much weight on fundraising and too little on actual voting, though. Both CA and WA have "jungle" primaries and in WA the primary has usually been a very good predictor of the general. In CA this year you should probably add 4-7 points to the Dem total (depending on the district) to translate from the primary to the general as the primary electorate was disproportionately GOP, with Obama getting just 56% of the vote and all but a few hundred of the other votes split among the GOP.

    WA1-6-10: These are all in about the same boat with Dems getting 54-55% of the two-party vote in the primary. They actually did worst in WA10 with 53.7%. These are all between lean D and likely D and something strange would have to happen for the GOP to win any of them. The GOP candidate in WA10 is Dick Muri, not Stan Flemming.

    WA3: I think likely R is about right as of now even though Dems got just 40% in the primary. Baird held that district for a long time and JHB isn't entrenched yet. Haugen might be able to make this interesting with a major cash infusion.

    CA3: likely D. Garamendi got 51.5% in the primary and it would be a very tall order for Vann to knock him below 50% in the general. Vann is a Colusa county supervisor.

    CA7: agree, tilt D rating even though Bera got just 43.7% of the two-party vote in the primary. It probably just got easier for Bera to hang the Ryan plan around Lungren's neck.

    CA9: lean D to likely D. McNerney got 47.8% in the primary which isn't quite safe, but this is a fairly poor, heavily Hispanic district and Dem turnout should be much higher in the general.

    CA10: agree, lean R. This one is very hard to figure. Dems got 40.5% of the two-party vote in the primary but that's misleading as Chad Condit (son of former blue dog rep Gary) got 15%. If Hernandez can pick up most of the Condit vote he has a decent shot. If Denham gets most of this vote, he'll win easily.

    CA21: lean R. I think you're way off base here. Dems got 43.0% of the primary vote in one of the poorest, most Hispanic districts in the state. Dem turnout should be way up for the general and a late cash infusion could easily make this competitive for Hernandez. He could probably sit on his ass the whole time and still get to 45%.

    CA24: agree, lean D. Capps (the only Dem on the ballot) got 47.5% of the two-party vote which is comparable to McNerney, but I think Maldonado is a more credible challenger than the 25 year old Gill.

    CA26: lean D. This will be very difficult for Strickland to win. Dems got 46.0% of the two-party vote, and 18.3% of the primary vote went to indie Linda Parks, who is probably closer politically to Brownley than to the very conservative Strickland. Strickland will have to pick up most of Parks' vote to win and I don't think he is well positioned to do that.

    CA36: agree, lean R. Ruiz got 41.9% in the primary which is at the outer edge of the competitive range, and he seems to be within striking distance.

    CA39 and CA45: safe R. Dems have no hope in either of these districts, with just 31.2% of the primary vote in 39 and 33.0% in 45. These are affluent suburban districts that are likely to see a relatively small turnout bump from the primary to the general, and even though they have some $ it would be a moral victory for either Kang or Chen to break 40%.

    CA41: tilt D to lean D. Dems got 45.4% of the primary vote here which is pretty meh. Tavaglione is a strong candidate, but Boxer won here by 7 points and Takano should be able to pull this out.

    CA47: lean D to likely D. Dems got 49.3% of the primary vote here and Lowenthal is a political veteran even if he isn't an incumbent.

    CA52: lean D. Dems got 48.6% of the 2-party primary vote. Saldana is to Peters' left and he should not have too much trouble getting her voters out.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 04:56:51 PM PDT

    •  As a general question (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

      Why do you suppose democratic turnout was so depressed during the top-2 primaries in California this year?  And is the root cause anything that we need to be paying attention towards in November, or does it go away with the presidency being on the ballot?

      •  CA primary turnout has always been low (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701, lordpet8, MichaelNY

            It is worth looking at, but is mostly indicative of low interest in politics especially without any marquee races. The dismal turnout is always worse on the Democratic side and neither of the statewide races were heavily contested. Obama was completely unopposed in his race and DiFi was up against 23 Some Dudes (including all parties).

             We follow politics closely but most Californians don't think as much about the House and Assembly primaries. Also there was only one high profile ballot measure (the tobacco tax increase)  in the June primary. It was the kind of election that occasional or irregular voters are likely to skip. A higher portion of GOP voters vote every election while there are more irregular voters among Democratic voters. The challenge is to get enough of those voters to the polls in November to win the close candidate races and the key ballot measures.

        Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

        by Zack from the SFV on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 08:39:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  what Zack said (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, MichaelNY

        Also, primary turnout skews old and white, which means GOP even more than in a typical state.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 09:59:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Good to see you bullish on CA-52 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Winning there would be sweet.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:29:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nice compilation (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alibguy, MichaelNY

    Thank you very much for doing this. It must have taken a lot of hours.

  •  CA-17 (6+ / 0-)

    You could say that Representative Honda is in "accord" with his district.

  •  Excellent diary series (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, wu ming

        and as a Californian I was especially waiting for this last of the series. I know you put a lot of effort into these diaries and we appreciate your work.

         There are a few bits you might want to edit, mostly about geography. You are not the only person who gets east and west confused; I often have the same problem.

         OR-02 is the the whole state EAST of the Cascades. It would be hard to have only one seat west of the Cascades since that is where most of the population lives.

         CA-14 is on the WEST side of the SF Bay Area south of SF. It is mostly San Mateo County and is ably represented by the great Jackie Speier, a former SM County Supervisor.

         CA-29 is not "most of the San Fernando Valley". There are around 1.5 million of us living in the SFV and so we have areas that are in three districts. CA-29 would be better described as covering most of the Northeast SFV. CA-30 (Sher-Berman) is the South and West Valley. CA-29 is the more Latino pert of the Valley and CA-30 is the more Anglo and Jewish part. The East SFV cities of Burbank and Glendale are in CA-28 (Schiff).

          I don't have too many disagreements with your analyses, but I echo some other commenters in suggesting that CA-26 should be either Tilt Dem or Lean Dem. Tony Strickland is too much a hardcore conservative for this moderate district. He got about 44% in the primary (with its low and GOP skewed turnout). He may be able to improve that somewhat but his anti-environment and fetal supremecist views don't represent the majority of the district. This is a top priority district for the DCCC and local CA Dems. It won't be easy, but Brownley will have lots of support in making a victory possible. Also I have to be optimistic in the closest House swing district to me, with a candidate I am supporting. Go Team!

         

    Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

    by Zack from the SFV on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 09:20:40 PM PDT

  •  A few words about CA-45 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, TrueBlueDem, wu ming

    Disclaimer, I am a former intern on Kang's campaign

    I'm a bit disheartened that you rated Jay Chen's race as more competitive than Kang's race.  Kang had a better margine in the primary, and held a bit of a higher position as Mayor of Irvine as opposed to being on a school board.

    Regardless of the CA-45 vs. CA-39 dynamics, I'll just toot my own horn right now, and point out that we just opened a second campaign office in Mission Viejo (our first is in Irvine) over the weekend, which is being shared with Jerry Tetalman from CA-49, (hopefully) OFA and the dem candidate for the 73rd assembly district .  So, Kang's campaign is pretty serious about this election, and it may just be my rose colored glasses because I'm on the "inside" but I think we have a somewhat even chance at pulling through, though the district is still tough.

    I'm overall mixed about the rating of CA-45 though, the lack of attention this race is getting makes it possible to catch John Campbell with his pants down, but the lack of attention makes fundraising weaker than it could be.

    Well, that's all I have to say, hopefully I didn't say anything that could get me in troubs, give a few bucks to Sukhee if you want in my sig, we could always use a few extra dollars.

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

    by Daman09 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:28:19 AM PDT

  •  I've been following this diary all the way through (0+ / 0-)

    Excellent work!!!

  •  Great series of diaries (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    And you have have prompted me to update race tracker.

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