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Leading Off:

MA-Sen (PDF): Public Policy Polling. 6/16-18. Likely voters. MoE: ±2.9%. (6/16-18 results):

Elizabeth Warren (D): 44 (46)
Scott Brown (R-inc): 49 (46)
Undecided: 8 (8)
The first PPP poll of the Massachusetts Senate race since they switched over to their likely voter model shows a marked drop for Elizabeth Warren, who had previously been tied with Scott Brown and had led in the polls before that. The main story here may simply be the change in composition, though the 2008 presidential sample isn't particularly odd at 58-33 Obama; the actual vote was 62-36. But another story is that Brown's approvals do seem to be rebounding from earlier in the year while Warren isn't winning undecided voters over as they come off the fence. Brown's approval rating now stands at 53/36, up from 45/42 in March (when it was his turn to trail by 5). Warren, by contrast, has 46/43 favorables, compared with 46/33 in March.

It doesn't seem like Warren is on track to win this purely on likeability grounds, but PPP's Tom Jensen sees Brown's Achilles heel here: Even while 54% of voters think he's "about right" ideologically, 56% also think that the GOP in general is "too conservative," and more importantly, 53% of voters would like Democrats to be in charge of the Senate, compared with 36% who would like Republicans to control the chamber. Warren's problem is that only 76% of those voters who want Democrats to be in charge are in powers planning to vote for her. The roadmap here is to follow the same path as Sheldon Whitehouse vs. Lincoln Chafee in 2006, another case of taking down a likeable moderate by tying him at every turn to the national party and educating voters about how the Senate as a whole functions... a lesson which hasn't seemed to sink in with a large enough share of Massachusetts voters yet.

P.S. Brown is also out with a new ad that's largely content-free, touting his humble upbringing. Maybe there are some YouTube compression issues going on, but the footage of him inside his truck (of course) looks awfully low-quality. (David Jarman & David Nir)


CT-Sen: In his new spot, Dem Rep. Chris Murphy pushes back against negative ads from Linda McMahon which have attacked his attendance record in Congress. Murphy says his "voting record is 97%," then pivots to talk about how he's helped created jobs in Connecticut. I love Murphy, but I think he comes off a little too dark and serious in this one (maybe it's the musical accompaniment).

MO-Sen: After two days of unthinkably intense pressure, Republican Rep. Todd Akin is still in this thing. A 5pm deadline came and went on Tuesday with Akin defiantly refusing to succumb to his own party's demands that he drop out; while he can still quit, now it would require a court order to get his name off the ballot. Foolishly, the NRSC and Crossroads have backed themselves into a corner, with new threats not to spend a dime on Akin if he remains the nominee—but as I've been saying, if anyone had any leverage over the guy, there'd be no need for this to play out in such a public and unpleasant fashion. Of course, it's fantastic news for Democrats either way so long as Akin does hang on, because these outside money groups will have to eat their words rather painfully—or Akin will have to go without. Ah, the Republican Party: They never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

NY-Sen (PDF): Boring.

VA-Sen: Democrat Tim Kaine was one of many candidates who rolled out their first television ads on Tuesday. Kaine speaks to the camera for the full 30 seconds, talking about the fiscal responsibility he demonstrated as Virginia's governor. There's no word on the size of the buy, but Kaine long ago reserved a giant $4.5 million in TV time for the fall, so this is almost assuredly just a taste of what's to come.


CA-41: Democrat Mark Takano is out with an internal poll from EMC Research which supports the notion that this race is a tossup despite the 41st's blue lean. Takano leads Republican John Tavaglione 42-38 in the first numbers we've seen here, though unfortunately, no other details are available about the survey, such as presidential toplines.

IA-04: Todd Akin isn't the only guy having issues on the subject of "how is babby formed." Check out Iowa Republican Steve King's new interview:

REPORTER: You support the No Taxpayer Funding for Abortion Act that would provide federal funding for abortions to a person that has been forcefully raped. But what if someone isn't forcibly raped and for example, a 12-year-old who gets pregnant? Should she have to bring this baby to term?

KING: Well I just haven't heard of that being a circumstance that's been brought to me in any personal way and I'd be open to hearing discussion about that subject matter.

King also praised Akin as a "strong Christian man, with a wonderful family."

MD-06: Who knew that GOP Rep. Roscoe Bartlett was such a dedicated Mad Max fan?

Deep in the West Virginia woods, in a small cabin powered by the sun and the wind, a bespectacled, white-haired man is giving a video tour of his basement, describing techniques for the long-term preservation of food in case of "an emergency."

"We don't really think of those today, because it's so convenient to go to the supermarket," he cautions. "But you know, you're planning because the supermarket may not always be there."

The electrical grid could fail tomorrow, he frequently warns. Food would disappear from the shelves. Water would no longer flow from the pipes. Money might become worthless. People could turn on each other, and millions would die.

Such concerns are typical among "survivalists," a loose national movement of individuals who advocate self-sufficiency in the face of natural or man-made disasters, gathering online or in person to discuss the best ways to prepare for the worst.

What is atypical is that the owner of this cabin is Roscoe G. Bartlett, the longtime Republican congressman from Maryland. Over the past two decades, he has developed a following as one of the country's premier proponents of preparedness against impending doom, even urging the more than 80 percent of Americans who live in urban areas to relocate.

Even more impressive, Bartlett is 86! Of course, instead of worrying about sci-fi scenarios of dystopian doom, he could actually focus on the real survival threat we face, global climate change. But I'm sure Bartlett wouldn't find that nearly as fun as fantasizing about EMP blasts.

NY-11: I swear on Monday that when I was reading about Animal House on the Galilee (which took place in Israel, of course), and then later about the arrest of GOP Rep. Mike Grimm's top fundraiser (an Israeli citizen, as it so happens), I momentarily wondered at the synchronicity. After all, the FBI was apparently investigating the Galilean hijinks, which seemed weird, and they also were the same folks who had arrested the fundraiser, Ofer Biton. But, I told myself, it was clearly just a coincidence.

I was wrong:

A Federal Bureau of Investigation probe into New York Rep. Michael Grimm and his supporters led investigators to learn details of an incident on a 2011 congressional trip to Israel in which a different lawmaker went skinny dipping in the Sea of Galilee, according to a person familiar with the matter. [...]

Numerous congressional ethics-law experts interviewed Monday said the FBI does not care if lawmakers swim naked and that the investigation must be a matter under the agency's jurisdiction. "Last time I checked, skinny dipping anywhere, including a foreign country, is not a federal crime," said Jan Baran, head of the election law group at Wiley Rein LLP.

The person familiar with the investigation said the FBI came across details of the swimming incident while examining the Israel trip and a trip Rep. Grimm made afterward to Cyprus, but that the swimming incident wasn't relevant to the probe.

I can't even imagine how furious Grimm's colleagues must be at him right now. Their clothing-optional, drunken romp in the Sea of Galilee would never have come to light were it not for the fact that the Feds have been hot on Grimm's tail. Right now, Grimm needs friends more than anything, but it looks like he just made himself about 30 enemies.

NY-21: Republican businessman Matt Doheny is going up with his first TV ad of the election, a bland introductory spot in which he says he wants to "create jobs here in the capital district and to put an end to Washington's out of control spending." I also notice he makes reference to "my wife Mary," which is perhaps his way of shoring up his image in the wake of this story.

NY-24: Here's another first ad in an upstate New York race, from Dem ex-Rep. Dan Maffei. The narrator explains that though the one-term Maffei "wasn't there long, he saw what's wrong with Washington," which is why he "opposed the Wall Street bailout." It's an interesting way to inoculate yourself against charges that you're a DC insider while also taking a few whacks at the beltway.

PA-08: Democrat Kathy Boockvar just released her first ad, which PoliticsPA says is backed by a $38K buy. It's a standard positive introductory spot in which she uses some household visuals (turning off lights, turning down the thermostat) to underscore her message that "we need more common sense in Washington."

Other Races:

AZ-St. Lege: The AP has a preview of some of Arizona's more interesting state legislative races in the upcoming primary (set for Aug. 28). Redistricting in the suburbs seems to have really scrambled things for prominent Republicans, including ex-state Sen. President Russell Pearce, who notoriously got recalled last year and is now attempting a comeback. Thanks to redistricting, Pearce is running in an safely Republican open seat (SD-25) against businessman Bob Worsley; the guy who took out Pearce, Jerry Lewis, is running in a different district. Also, state House speaker Andy Tobin finds himself in a redistricting-induced battle with two other Republican incumbents, meaning there are three members trying to squeeze into two seats. (David Jarman)

NV-St. Sen: Polling in state legislative races is rare enough, and you might recall that we felt lucky when we saw a poll last week in one of the most pivotal races in one of the most closely-divided chambers in the nation (the Nevada State Senate, where Democrats are defending a 12-11 edge). Well, now we've gotten an avalanche of internal polls from Nevada Senate races, to the extent that we may well have a more complete picture at this point about the state of play in the Nevada Senate than in the U.S. House.

Republican pollster POS has polled five of the most competitive races on behalf of the RSLC (the GOP equivalent of the DLCC); the GOPer leads in 3, the Dem in 1, and one is tied. In the Dem-held open seat, Henderson-area, 56% Obama SD-05, ex-Henderson city councilor Steve Kirk leads ex-state Sen. Joyce Woodhouse 44-37. In the Dem-held open seat, NW Las Vegas, 55% Obama SD-06, Mark Hutchison leads Benny Yerushalmi 40-33. In the GOP-held open seat, Enterprise-area, 58% Obama SD-09, Democrat Justin Jones is in the lead over GOP Mari St. Martin 38-34. In the west Reno, 57% Obama SD-15, appointed incumbent Greg Brower is tied with district-switching ex-state Sen. Sheila Leslie 42-42. And in the newly-created, NW Las Vegas, 50% Obama SD-18, state Asm. Scott Hammond leads Kelli Ross 44-29.

But wait! There are also three Dem polls, by Myers Research and Strategic Services, all with Dems in the lead instead. They have Woodhouse leading 47-43 in SD-05, Jones leading 49-39 in SD-09, and Leslie leading 46-41 in pivotal SD-15. For more information on these races (and for more statistics about all of these districts, as well as some initial handicapping), check out atdnext's personal blog. (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

Congress: The Hill rounds up the 50 wealthiest members of Congress, and tops is still Texas GOP Rep. Mike McCaul, who married into the Clear Channel radio family and is worth a minimum of $291 million.

Majority PAC: The Dem-aligned Majority PAC (sort of the "official unofficial" super PAC of the DSCC) is launching a new, four-state ad blast worth $1.6 million in all. They're targeting Indiana (Richard Mourdock), North Dakota (Rick Berg), Montana (Denny Rehberg), and Ohio (Josh Mandel); you can find all of the ads at the link, along with helpful summaries of each if you can't watch.

NFIB: The conservative National Federation of Independent Business is launching a $2 million ad campaign to support Republicans in eight house districts—click through for the full list. A Senate component will reportedly follow.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I find this very strange... (23+ / 0-)

    What is not to like about Elizabeth Warren; I just do not get it.

    We can only hope that Obama's coattails are strong enough to pull her in.

    Russ Feingold is a force to be reckoned with

    by HoosierLiberal on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 05:03:18 AM PDT

    •  the biggest problem is with Brown's popularity (20+ / 0-)

      rather than Warren's unpopularity. 53% approval is always a very strong place for an incumbent to be, and even 1/3 of liberals approve of the job Brown's done.

      They really need to tie him more to the generally unpopular congressional GOP and turn it into a vote on who has control of the Senate, because it's not currently looking as if a simple battle of personalities is going to do the job.

    •  Brown has the blue collar vote (18+ / 0-)

      He's the guy I'd like to have a beer with.  This is a content-free campaign, it's a simply popularity contest, and they are tying it all to Warren being a Massachusetts type--the asexual old school marm image that killed Coakley.  Doesn't matter that Coakley sucked and Warren is a superhero, they are being painted with the same broad brush.

    •  Reminds me... (2+ / 0-)

      ...Of that Jen Sorensen cartoon that was posted here a while back.

      "If this Studebaker had anymore Atomic Space-Age Style, you'd have to be an astronaut with a geiger counter!"

      by Stude Dude on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 05:24:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm hoping that her speech at the Convention (13+ / 0-)

      will get people on board... She skyrocketed after her chat about "you didn't get there on your own" went viral. Unfortunately, Brown tried to use that to HIS advantage after Pres Obama mangled the line.

      I believe that she'll get that back as a centerpiece of her campaign after the Convention. Plus, thanks to Akin, she can also stress how Repubs are bad for women and we NEED the majority in the Senate.

      My personal observation is that Warren has strong support. I have seen a ton of yard signs and bumperstickers for her. I've only seen two yard signs and no bumperstickers for Brown. When he ran the first time, I saw hundreds of Brown yard signs. It was so depressing!

      “Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan” is an anagram for “My ultimate Ayn Rand Porn.”

      by theKgirls on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 05:32:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Don't get too worked up over one poll (11+ / 0-)

      Even a 5-point margin is within the MOE, and PPP is far from invincible in their sampling.

      •  ^^^THIS (14+ / 0-)

        The amount of handwringing over this one poll on DKE has been epic.

        People mistakenly have come to treat PPP as virtually flawless.  Honestly, their error rate this year has been beyond the 5% one expects in a 95% confidence interval.  And that's been in both directions, for us and against us.

        MA-Sen is a tossup, same as it was 24 hours ago.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:00:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, but she's been behind consistently (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        and usually around now leads are getting set in stone. It's rare that a candidate who is behind at this point will win unless something very major happens. I don't know what the problem is because I;m not there and have seen this race mostly through the gauze of the Warren idol worship here, but it's obvious she probably won't win.

        Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07.

        by anastasia p on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:06:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Um, no, you're opening line is simply incorrect (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          AreDeutz, itskevin, KingofSpades

          Not only has she not been "behind consistently," in fact she's been ahead roughly half the time all year and in fact led in the preceding two MA-Sen polls (by two different pollsters) before this new PPP release, and almost all the polls have been within margin-of-error.

          She's not trailed, your impression is incorrect, this race has been and still is the purest of tossups.

          The odds are PPP just got a bad sample rather than Warren slipping behind now.  There has never been any buzz that Warren has slipped this summer.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:15:41 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Concern troll much? (0+ / 0-)


          Not voting is NOT an option this time around.

          by AreDeutz on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:56:30 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  "gauze of the Warren idol worship" (0+ / 0-)

          That's part of the problem.   Mass. voters have never felt the idol worship that out of staters felt.

          This is very hard for the people who are working very hard to get D's elected this year.  

          If you want to help, forget the idol worship and start asking her campaign some hard questions.  Why is this race even close?  

      •  I trust PPP than anyone (0+ / 0-)

        don't dismiss  the poll. Let's just try to tie Brown to the GOP which is what he is?

        "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

        by tuma on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:10:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Part of the problem may be a latent "university- (14+ / 0-)

      townie" divide in Massachusetts that isn't as apparent at a national level as it is locally.  Scott Brown has successfully positioned himself as a "regular fellow" who likes baseball, goes to BBQs, etc., while Elizabeth Warren has heavy Harvard University ties.  

      MA also has a fair number of AM radio that have transformed the more typical right-wing type of ranting and raving to works this angle of "common man resentment" against the "highbrow elitist liberals," as a substitute for the "social and religious conservative" themes that are more commonly seen on this AM radio bands in other parts of the country.  

      I don't know if I'm explaining it well, but my hypothesis is that this affect works in a way similar to the "birther" issues being a dog-whistle for the racist issues that many who share those views realize they can not discuss in pubic.

      Massachusetts politics, business, and academia have such a long history of domination by "blue-bloods," 'scholars,"  liberals, and other "elitists,"  that we may have induced latent resentments among "regular folks" who have developed a mild symbolic resentment against these groups.

      I think Elizabeth Warren is as vibrant, and passionate advocate for the "common person" as I've ever seen, and would be among the finest, top 5% of all Senators in progressive causes.  But, she stumbled in the spring by appearing  not knowing who a couple of the famous sports teams were. Loving the Red Sox and hating the Yankees an important shibboleth.  Many Mass voters can't imagine Elizabeth Warren screaming "Yankees Suck!"  

      When I took my young son to see Metallica, and Godsmack, much to his mother's horror, who filled his head with fears that this heavy metal crowd would be biker thugs and we'd get mugged.  As the enormous crowd lined up to get into the Boston Garden a spontaneous chant of "Yankees Suck!" erupted bonding us all together and my son was delighted to be instantly  part of a gang of 10s of thousands.  

      Metaphorically, Scott Brown seems to know how to play off the anti-establishment sentiment, even to the point of making a campaign issue out of Warren's multi-million dollar Cambridge estate.

      The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

      by HoundDog on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:42:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I just saw cordgrass' comment above saying (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sethtriggs, Zornorph

        Brown has the "blue collar" vote, which I now realize is a short way of saying what I was trying to do here.  But, in this contrast, you can see which side of this divide I grew up on spending two decades of my life straddled between MIT and Harvard.  "Regular folks" can spot hidden clues that enable them to identify us, somehow, even when we try really hard to blend in, as many of our presidential candidates have sadly discovered.  

        I'm going to have to write this one down, for future reference, Clue number 52, taking a 300 word essay to say "blue-collar."  

        The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

        by HoundDog on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:50:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's Interesting (7+ / 0-)

          I'm a working class kid (read dirt friggin' poor) from the Texas Panhandle and a graduate of the Texas public university system.  The only thing I know about Harvard is that they sell some cool ties at their student union.  By sheer force of will, a bit of luck, and some Panhandle political skills I've achieved a senior position in a cabinet-level agency of the federal government.  Sometimes they let me lecture at the fancy colleges here in DC.  

          I have a lot of people that work with me and for me that are from the Ivy League side of things and, man, I have to say we live in VERY different worlds.  My whole life experience is radically different.  I worked three jobs and lived in the front room of an old house to go to college.  So my experience, for instance, with "campus life" was more about trying to study while on my supper break from cooking eggs at the Waffle House than anything that had to do with academics or intervarsity activities.  So when people ask me: "what did you do in college?"  The answer is work, class, work some more, hide from bill collectors.      

          Our assumptions about life, justice, fairness, diversity, etc are all radically different.  Case in point - at a recent meeting the deputy was touting how "diverse" our department has become over the last 3 years.  I pointed out it wasn't diverse at all!  60% of our bureau employees attended either Harvard or Yale and only 10% attended any kind of state school whatsoever.  They looked at me like I was crazy!  The notion that our office might benefit from social/economic diversity never even dawned on them.  IMHO the whole federal government suffers from a very myopic "east coast" worldview that this attitude lays at the heart of.  

          You never can lose your roots, man - you can't "blend in" with working class people any more than I can "blend in" with these blue bloods.  I don't want to drink wine and eat small plates - I like Miller beer and shit that's been deep fried.

          The question is, can you learn to frame the debate from the perspective of the "other side?"  Can you come to understand that the key to impressing "blue collar" types is not to be a faker - but to own yourself and your positions?  The GOP capitalizes on the "us vs. them" mentality and we on the left shouldn't be divided by that.  If you're a Harvard guy, you're never going to have a good football team to support - so don't try to fake it.  Just own what you are.    

          No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices. - Edward R. Murrow

          by CrazyHorse on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:14:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Your life experience . . . (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            AreDeutz, JBraden, cordgrass

            . . . actually sounds a lot like Warren's. She was not Ivy League-educated; she grew up without privilege, and put herself through college. Just as your "sheer force of will, bit of luck, and Panhandle political skills" (great description, by the way) landed you in a powerful position, Warren's self-motivation and hard work got her where she is. Unlike the Bushes and Romneys of the world, she didn't have anything handed to her. The fact that she ended up on the faculty at Harvard is purely her own achievement, which she accomplished outside the entrenched Ivy League world.

            29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

            by The Caped Composer on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:01:12 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  This line of yours (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          irmaly, HoundDog, pademocrat, Zornorph

          really helps this western girl understand the divide:

          Many Mass voters can't imagine Elizabeth Warren screaming "Yankees Suck!"
          •  New campaign plank for Warren: (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HoundDog, pademocrat

            Fire Bobby Valentine!

            "I hope; therefore, I can live."
            For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

            by tietack on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:53:10 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's the ticket! If we could send Warren (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              to a special class could learn to scream "Yankee's suck," with such authentic  passion that her tonsils vibrated, it would be a "slam dunk."  But, she'd have to be holding a beer and hotdog, not white wine and a cheese plate.  

              The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

              by HoundDog on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:04:07 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Thanks for noticing this. I was in hurry (0+ / 0-)

            so hit the send button to soon, to make the improvement of adding the phrase, "screaming Yankees Suck!' with the whole hearted authentic exuberance that distinguishes the true deeply rooted "everyman" of Massachusetts.  

            With the Red Socks, Celtics, Bruins, and Patriots Massachusetts sports fans count on being in the final championship competitions every year, bringing us consolation that the rest of the country keep rejecting our presidential candidates after John Kennedy.  

            But, not even the Lakers can evoke the passion that the Yankees do, every since Babe Ruth was stolen by those rotten $#@%^^& from the south.  

            The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

            by HoundDog on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:00:41 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Harumph! (0+ / 0-)

          At Brown, they taught us to be concise.  :P

      •  Mass. has a very strange political dynamic (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Nulwee, sethtriggs, dc1000, pademocrat

        It's famously "blue", but yet it will elect republican governors and even this phony, pickup truck drivin' Marlboro man wannabe.

        I also thought that Warren would be able to fairly easily take back this seat after the people in Mass. came to their senses, but I guess that is not the case.

        I hate to even think about this possibility, but is is plausible that Romney could flip Massachusetts?

        I've have not heard anything that even hinted that this was plausible, but Warren's deficit at this point is troubling.

        I guess if Romney were to somehow get Mass, it would probably be a part of a landslide and we would be on the wrong side of it.

        "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!"

        by jkay on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:03:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  People in Mass pretty much hate Romney (3+ / 0-)

          yes, he gave us healthcare, but he was a carpetbagger. The local GOP was shaking in their boots because they had a woman as candidate for Governor, and they didn't think their woman could be our woman. So they wooed Romney and got a court to say he could run here even though he was not technically eligible. Then Mittens cam in and wooed the voters, claiming "independence", said he was "moderate" etc. and got elected. Then the minute he got elected we rarely saw him while he jaunted across the country and the globe positioning himself for a presidential run.
          And, yes, we have a penchant for being a blue state that votes in Republicans on occasion, especially for Governor. But they were usually the old-money Republicans, who were more fiscal conservatives and didn't bother with social issues.
          Romney is a hypocrite who will change his opinions with the winds. He is nether liked, not respected here, except by the ignorant.

          Isn’t it ironic to think that man might determine his own future by something so seemingly trivial as the choice of an insect spray. ~ Rachel Carson, Silent Spring ~

          by MA Liberal on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:18:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Romney was an AWFUL governor! (0+ / 0-)

            Has anyone ever asked how many days he spent actually doing his job as governor during his last 2 years in office?  He was rarely seen for two entire years.  Unless, of course, there was a photo op to be had.  

            He was the worst.  Sometimes I wonder why there's so little focus on how bad a governor he was.  He would never have been reelected.

        •  No he can't (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Enough voters now realize he was "using" them, pretty much pure carpetbagging.

      •  I think you do a good job of putting that vibe (0+ / 0-)

        into words.  Similar thing here in RI.  Maybe not to the same extent as Mass., and with slightly different "us" and "them".  

        "Keep your feet on the ground and keep reaching for the stars" --Casey Kasem

        by netop on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:35:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  where in RI are you from? (0+ / 0-)

          I grew up on the East Side. many people there are transplants. I don't have an RI accent and in fact have been told that my voice sounds a little New York (my dad's from Long Island). So if not having an RI accent means I am not a true Rhode Islander, then where am I from?

          the fact that stupid crap like this affects elections is really depressing.

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:55:59 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  right wing radio in mass (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        PorridgeGun, cordgrass

        The right wing radio stations in MA are the dominant voice on the radio.  It is astonishing how many stations and how many tea baggers control the air waves.  After the SC Obamacare decision I was aghast at the unified tea bagger message on the radio that Obamacare was voilating our civil liberties and basically the world was going to end.   It was unbelievable b/c nearly every station except NPR was acting like chicken little.  Even the poor here who are on Masscare are staunchly against Obamacare.  The poor are politically clueless and eager to eat up the right wing hate rhetoric, which is the dominant force on the radio.  It is just so wierd that it is such a powerful force in one of the most liberal states in the nation.

        "Art is a lie that makes you realize the truth." - Picasso

        by she the technocrat on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:36:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm from Red Sox Nation too (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        and I, of course, believe that the Yankees suck. but if you actually think that is a legitimate issue to base your vote on, you need to reexamine your life, reexamine your choices. (that's an impersonal "you" btw)

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:51:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hello? (0+ / 0-)

        Brown will vote with the rest of the repubs to destroy Social Security and Medicare.

        Come on.  MA has to know that.

      •  Martha Coakley was the one who didn't know (0+ / 0-)

        the sports teams.  

    •  Actually it is Romney's coattails that will drag (9+ / 0-)

      Brown down.  Brown came out very quickly against Akin to show that he is not on board with the War on Women - TM, but this is bringing up the Blunt Amendment and the Fair Pay Act - votes that Brown would rather not talk about because they hurt him. I keep posting on the Boston Globe that in spite of Brown's sternly worded letter about the no-exceptions anti-abortion platform Brown still took money from the likes of Texan Clayton Williams ("rape was like the weather: As long as it's inevitable, you might as well lie back and enjoy it") and gave money from his PAC to radical anti-abortionists Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-MT) and Rep. Rick Berg (R-ND).

      We also have to contend with the sexism that some people see in Massachusetts (myself included) where we have never elected a woman Governor or Senator.

      Brown's whining a couple of weeks ago about people on government assistance being mailed voter registration cards also made it clear that he's just another Republican that only cares about the rich.

      Sadly, Brown is good looking and he built a likable persona so that will help him a lot.  It is going to be close and tight until the very end.

      Then they came for me - and by that time there was nobody left to speak up.

      by DefendOurConstitution on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:51:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Warren should bring this up... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DefendOurConstitution, Osiris
        Brown's whining a couple of weeks ago about people on government assistance being mailed voter registration cards also made it clear that he's just another Republican that only cares about the rich.
        Because Brown's mother was on welfare after his dad left them. So what he's saying is, he doesn't believe it would have been right to encourage his mom to exercise her right to vote.

        Isn’t it ironic to think that man might determine his own future by something so seemingly trivial as the choice of an insect spray. ~ Rachel Carson, Silent Spring ~

        by MA Liberal on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:21:06 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Because it's very tough to get elected when (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sethtriggs, pademocrat, askew

      you're a woman. Women need to be twice as good to get half the recognition. And Scotti plays up his upbringing and "independence" and plays to the libertarian/government haters as much as Republicans.
      But Brown is also a hypocrite in that Republicans denigrate those who take government assistance. Brown's mother took welfare when his dad left them. Republicans denigrate women and hold views very much like Akin. But Scotti calls for Akin to drop from his race for Senate, says there's no place for his kind of attitude. Except, Akin's views are very much in the mainstream of the GOP - it's even in their platform.
      Brown should be asked if he supports the GOP platform (which includes radical abortion views) or agrees with Romney/Ryan's views on health care and abortion. I'd like to know if he supports them.
      You can't have it both ways Scott!

      Isn’t it ironic to think that man might determine his own future by something so seemingly trivial as the choice of an insect spray. ~ Rachel Carson, Silent Spring ~

      by MA Liberal on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:00:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think it's that simple. (0+ / 0-)

        In fact, there's evidence that women need to be mediocre hawks, drug hawks, budget hawks, (from a progressive POV) to get elected, and not be the best and the brightest.

        There's ample research that shows that women in recent history have been far less interested in running than research showing that they have been dissuaded or prevented.  There is definitely a cynicism about national office and that may well be more of a barrier than institutional sexism.  

        2010 was pretty bad for women, but it was in every sense an exceptional election. We all remember the mountains made out of molehills about how it spelled DOOM for Democrats, when really that wasn't the case.  It was in many ways typical of midterms but with extreme conservative enthusiasm--which is bad for women, btw.

        Only two and four years before, we had dramatic increases in female lawmakers as a percentage.  

        That is largely generational.  My cousin was one of the first women to get an engineering degree from her school--not terribly many women get engineering degrees today.  She'd be in her early 70s today... exactly the same generation as some of our elder female senators.  The average age of the senate is quite high.  As far as de facto sexism, although women in the workforce became normal for late Silent Generationers and Baby Boomers, they certainly participated in law and other white-collar professions at lower rates than men and also were still expected to be homemakers, even if that meant interrupting a successful and promising career.

        When Gen X is the establishment, expect to see a lot more female senators, governors, and congresswomen.  Expect a female president in the 2020s.

        Thank you to jayden, Dr Erich Bloodaxe RN, Aji and everyone in the Daily Kos community involved in gifting my subscription and gifting others!

        by Nulwee on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:28:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Sorry, I realize that paragraph on 2010 is (0+ / 0-)

          contradictory.  I meant that it was exceptional in terms of the historical trend towards greater female lawmakers, and typical in terms of turnout.  I'ts 4 AM here.

          Thank you to jayden, Dr Erich Bloodaxe RN, Aji and everyone in the Daily Kos community involved in gifting my subscription and gifting others!

          by Nulwee on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:31:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Look how MA votes in general elections: (4+ / 0-)

      And that was during the GOP landslide. Brown needs to be five points ahead to even end up tying. And he won't. Believe it.....and donate.

      Mitt/Twit - 2012 - Don't Tax Me, Bro!

      by kitebro on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:05:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Some not-so-liberal MA voters (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      netop, Osiris

      especially outside Route 128 see her as (another condescending) Boston-Cambridge elitist liberal. Don't shoot the messenger as I like her, but with roots "outstate", I'm trying to respond to your post.

      It's going to come down to how toxic the R brand is there on election day.

    •  It's the motorcycle picture, for sure... (0+ / 0-)

      Actually, I have no idea what makes people in Massachusetts tick.

    •  Warren's campaign is flaccid. She hasn't attacked (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Brown's (perceived) strengths: his "hands across the aisle" bullshit and his basic just-plain-folks likeability. ("We had a president for 8 years that people said they'd 'like to have a beer with'--Scott Brown's good buddy George Bush.")
      She needs to tie him tight to Romney and Ryan, slap pictures of Akin, Gingrich and McConnell on his back. She needs to make fun of him. I'm not sure she has it in her. She's too earnest, too serious, and not showing the cutthroat instincts it takes to win. The debates will matter a lot, but this is not looking as good as it should be against a guy who derailed the national version of the same popular health plan that Romney signed into law in MA.

      Two hundred million Americans, and there ain't two good catchers among 'em. --Casey Stengel

      by LongTom on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 01:09:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  hope for the coattails (0+ / 0-)

      I've canvassed for her for the last two nights in a D community.  It's not good.  

      This is what I heard:  she's driving the bank thing too hard and it's a turn off for people who work in the trenches in the financial sector.  They aren't the problem, but they feel like she's attacking them.  She needs to express support for these people and more importantly, expand her message to include other issues.

      More importantly, she doesn't come across in person as all that likable.  The camera is her best friend-she definitely shines in that arena.  On a one on one encounter, she's not so great. I've met her about 5 times and she shows no sense of recognizing me.  At least pretend, for crying out loud.  Other people have mentioned the same thing.  It's shake a hand and run along.

      The most important issue is organization.  The campaign doesn't have it together yet and won't listen when supporters try to give them feedback.  

      I'm working hard for 3 D candidates at all levels and I find her campaign the hardest to work with.

  •  The 2006 Whitehouse race... (10+ / 0-)

    is a good call. I voted for a Dem majority in that race, although it broke my heart not to vote for Chafee. As the election draws closer, I'm cautiously optimistic that Mass. voters will recognize what needs to be done.

    •  Chafee landed on his feet though (8+ / 0-)

      Feel proud: your man left the GOP (long after it had left him, but anyway) and is now your governor.

    •  When I (and many folks) voted against Chaffee (R) (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mconvente, sethtriggs, Ivey476

      It was not Chaffee we voted against.  It was the (R) after his name.  I recall many conversations with folks that felt a bit bad about voting him out, but that came to the conclusion that they could not tolerate a Republican Senate.
      We voted him out for the committee chairs, confirmations and the other perks that come with being the majority.

      Personally popular: in 2000 he won 57-41
      Tied to wrong party: in 2006 he lost 54-46

      Scott Brown has watched and learned.  His ads that show Dem. pols saying they stand behind Brown are constant and for those that don't pay as much attention to the details as the denizens of this site do, I imagine they are effective, giving people the piece of mind to vote against their usual party.("Hey, he's getting a stamp of approval from all these Dems, so he can't be all that bad, right?")

      The people of Mass. need to be reminded that a vote for Brown is a vote for a Republican majority in the Senate.  It is a vote for all those nasty super right wing (sometimes racist) Republicans that come from other parts of the country who hate science, women, non-white people, poor people, jobs, and peace.  It is a vote for that kind of Republican, because Scott Brown is one of those Republicans.  He's just been doing a good job of hiding it.

      THIS COMMENT WAS MADE IN RESPONSE TO THIS DIARY.  Not sure if it's bad form to repost a comment in more than one diary, but it seemed silly to recycle the thought using different words just to make it "original".

      "Keep your feet on the ground and keep reaching for the stars" --Casey Kasem

      by netop on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:56:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  In 2000 he was also running against (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Bob Weygand, and Chafee was arguably to Weygand's left. Whitehouse, meanwhile, is a faithful liberal. If there were even a few liberals who voted for Chafee in 2000 as the most liberal candidate, they certainly returned to the Dem fold in 2006.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:58:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I Live Outside MO (8+ / 0-)

    in southern IL. The folks I know in MO are stunned by Todd Akin. These are not liberal folks and they are puking a little in their mouths. I don't buy these polls. I just don't.

    MO can be a pretty red state, but these comments are so far over the line I don't know what to say. Mark my words they will matter.

    When opportunity calls pick up the phone and give it directions to your house.

    by webranding on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 05:21:52 AM PDT

    •  I'm in bllue KC, MO. . . (0+ / 0-)

      and we are NOT stunned by Akin's comments. The GOP cavemen have taken over our state legislature, and we are THRILLED that Akin's saying what he actually believes gives both Claire and the Prez an opening in our getting-redder-by-the-day state.

      Because most of these MO Republican legislators - state and federal-- believe as Todd does, insofar as their attitudes toward women. This international coverage of Akin's nastiness may peel away enough women, or persuade enough non-voters to vote, to make a difference in Missouri. This election, anyway.

    •  I find it amusing that folks like Brown (0+ / 0-)

      are trying to distance themselves from Akin, and yet support their party's VP nominee and the platform, both of which espouse the same radical ideas about a woman's right to choose.

      Isn’t it ironic to think that man might determine his own future by something so seemingly trivial as the choice of an insect spray. ~ Rachel Carson, Silent Spring ~

      by MA Liberal on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:24:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  As I said in the digest yesterday . . . (9+ / 0-)

    . . . Warren needs to stop playing nice. Her slimeball piece of shite opponent is just too damn popular, G-d knows why. She needs to go for the jugular, and superglue, staple, solder, and surgically attach his lying arse to the national GOP! It also wouldn't hurt if some surrogates got out there and subtly shamed the voters of the supposedly smart state out of voting for the vacuous pretty-boy (e.g. "He must think you're not sharp enough to pay attention to his record," etc). Where's the full-court press?

    29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

    by The Caped Composer on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 05:24:41 AM PDT

    •  Do personal attacks backfire against "nice guys" (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sethtriggs, milkbone

      I think that's one of the problems with "trench warfare" campaigns against relatively popular incumbents. So to some extent, Warren has to "play nice".

      The only attack I know in such cases is to attack his votes, starting with his vote for "majority leader" and ask if voters want R policies X, Y, and Z.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 05:46:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I Don't Think a Gloves-Off Attack Campaign..... (7+ / 0-)

        ....will work against Brown but Warren's best hope is to tie him to Mitch McConnell.  Issues themselves clearly no longer matter and even would-be liberal Massachusetts is perfectly happy with expanding the lawless Wall Street/corporate economy that Scott Brown represents, so the only card Warren has left that has a chance of being effective is appealing to tribal politics.  "Do you want those Southern rebels to take back the Senate?"

        •  How about (6+ / 0-)

          something along the lines of,

          "Scott Brown seems like a likeable guy, and he has an appealing personal story. And he's good-looking, too!"

          But Scott Brown is a Republican, and he has voted with a rabidly anti-woman political party 80 percent of the time. He voted FOR (insert odious legislation here), and he has given thousands of dollars to support (flake and other anti-women legislators).

          Yes, Scott Brown is a nice guy, with a folksy demeanor and a pickup truck. But his votes, his party-line voting, his support of radical anti-women legislators, all make him a guy Massachusetts doesn't need. He's a Republican, and if Republicans take the Senate, it will make millionaires very happy. And women very unhappy."

          Just a rough - but you see what I mean. Acknowledge his likeability, then hammer him for who he actually supports.

      •  Well, I did say that surrogates . . . (8+ / 0-)

        . . . should be the ones to get down into the mud and subtly shame the voters. Warren just needs to highlight Brown's record-- hit it over and over and over again, make it part of the narrative. So far, she's playing too nice by not doing that.

        29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

        by The Caped Composer on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:01:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Surrogates could be helpful on two points. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          1. Surrogates could do some of the dirty work that is not always seemly for the candidate
          2. Surrogates also shows that Warren is connected and has friends.  She would do well by getting the message "She's alright. You can vote for her." from people that have the trust of the Mass. voters.  A lot of people are not going to do a ton of research on records and policy positions.  Also, nobody likes to elect a representative whose office is going to be in the basement, far away fro the "corridors of power".  
          So, especially if Warren is facing a struggle with Massachusetts voters' reluctance to elect women, she would do well if some folks could remind those voters that she will be part of the club when she gets to Washington.  

          "Keep your feet on the ground and keep reaching for the stars" --Casey Kasem

          by netop on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:09:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Was thinking about that a time ago (0+ / 0-)

            Which surrogates would be the most effective? I were here I'd try to get the Obamas (deuh), a Kennedy and perhaps Clinton? But obviously they'll be working on the presidential race.

            •  A quick list of surrogates from an amateur: (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              The Caped Composer

              First, a few Senators that can say how excited they are at the prospect of working with Warren when she gets to the Senate.  Maybe:
              John Kerry - Everybody already knows him and a majority voted for him.  He could also be good at pointing out the negatives of the obstructionist do-nothing Republicans in Congress that are trying to break America.
              Jay Rockefeller - good name recognition, history of being a friend to blue collar workers
              Jack Reed - Army Ranger from next door? Can't be bad to have that stamp of approval.
              Jeanne Shaheen- Another next door neighbor.  This time from that level headed neighbor to the north, where they certainly don't elect "elitist libruls".  Remind folks that the Dem. party is a big tent and remind folks that Brown=Republican=War on women
              Chuck Schumer - Could be a big help in the western part of the state.  His concerns and his work with agriculture, outdoor recreation, hunting, energy and the environment might resonate.

              Local politicians:  Scott Brown has been running ads with Dem. pols saying that Brown is the right choice.  I think they are effective.  I don't have a good sense of who would be most effective here, but a counterattack would be good.

              Mass. Representatives: They're all Dem. Take who ever is looking good in November and is popular with indies and put them to work, stressing the importance of having a teammate in the other house to help "move forward" or "get things done" or something along those lines (maybe with a bit of fear-mongering in regards to the crazy/evil national republican party.)

              "Keep your feet on the ground and keep reaching for the stars" --Casey Kasem

              by netop on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:21:08 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Hear, hear! (0+ / 0-)

                I hope you know some folks in Warren's campaign, 'cause you've got some great ideas that they need to put into action!

                29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

                by The Caped Composer on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:25:57 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  No, he's Teflon with personal attacks (7+ / 0-)

      She needs to go after his voting record.  HARD.  Massachusetts is a Democratic state after all, and if she highlights votes he took that hurt union workers and blue collar workers, that will hurt him.  He gets 100% of the guy vote here, unfortunately.

    •  My husband was talking to a Warren (12+ / 0-)

      supporter in MA who said that she needs to put out some nice bio pieces. He says no one knows about her family while Brown has a lot of family in his ads. A lot of people don't think of her as a wife and mother in addition to being an economic expert. I know the whole wife/mother thing has no relevance to fitness for office but it may help her favorability rating if she shared some of her personal background.

      You fell victim to one of the classic blunders, the most famous of which is "Never get involved in a land war in Asia".

      by yellowdog on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:41:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ever watch "Next Food Network Star"? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Personal bio pieces make the star. And Warren will have difficulty (and no chance at the Presidency later, assuming she wins), unless we know about her background and life.

        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

        by tietack on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:51:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I do agree family matters (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Sharing personal stuff is part of helps voters "relate in" with a candidate.

          So I agree.

          But it's not always essential.  People win all the time with imperfect campagins, failing to do things they should've done that would've made it easier.  Yes that's a lot less likely in a tossup, but even in tossups it happens.

          I do hope Warren shares more about herself that way, it will make things easier, especially since she is the undefined one in the race.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:32:59 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I don't think she needs to get too angry... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      she the technocrat, milkbone

      It's what Obama was up against, as was Hillary. Women and people of color are not allowed to be angry - otherwise you're just a bitter woman or an angry black man/woman.

      What Warren CAN do is make the choice very clear. brown is a Republican. his party's platform is radical, espousing the same opinions about abortion as Akin, though worded differently.
      Brown is also a Republican hypocrite. That means he is against welfare, though he benefited from it when his mom took it. He is against hiring Americans to work to build our crumbling infrastructure. He is against public education and health care.

      There is not getting around it. And Warren should tie the GOP like an anvil around Brown's neck!

      Isn’t it ironic to think that man might determine his own future by something so seemingly trivial as the choice of an insect spray. ~ Rachel Carson, Silent Spring ~

      by MA Liberal on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:28:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Angry black guys (0+ / 0-)

        I'd like to push back on the often stated line that black candidates can't be angry. Allen West have proved that it's not always true. I think it matters what you are perceived as angry about.

        Language professors HATE me!

        by Zornorph on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 09:04:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Actually, it depends on if you're a Democrat (0+ / 0-)

          or a Republican.

          Isn’t it ironic to think that man might determine his own future by something so seemingly trivial as the choice of an insect spray. ~ Rachel Carson, Silent Spring ~

          by MA Liberal on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:54:29 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  538 shifted WI to "lean Obama" (4+ / 0-)

    in its update after yesterday's PPP poll. While it's not perfect I do believe that the sophistication of its model makes it by far the best publicly available analysis of the state of the race and this looks a reasonable call to me. They did also include the whacko MI poll, but this barely dented Obama's lead in the state, which remains "safe" on their projection.

    According to 538 Wisconsin is now more vulnerable than New Hampshire or Nevada, although at 70% probability it must be said that Obama remains the favorite there. At this point I'd be really surprised if the Romney campaign doesn't make a significant play for the state and try to build on the Ryan bump. They could really do with trying to build an alternative route to 270 in case they fail to capture VA.

    •  With The Kind of Money They Have..... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody, sethtriggs

      .....expect Romney to make a significantly play everywhere from Oregon to New Mexico to Minnesota after Labor Day.

      •  Only you will expect that (6+ / 0-)

        No one else expects that.

        Romney is clearly if very narrowly trailing in a majority of the 8 states where he and Obama are currently advertising.  Obama has 247 electoral votes in his pocket outside those 8 states, and gets elected losing any 5 and up to 7 of the 8.  And all this after Romney and his allies have used up much of their best messaging in a couple hundred million dollars of attack ads.

        Team Red is going to focus their post-convention resources on those same 8 states because those are their best bets and they still haven't been able to truly secure any of them.  Diverting from those only carries more risk than reward, since those other states you cite are much taller orders for them.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:04:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Minor math mistake (0+ / 0-)

          Obama can lose any 4, not any 5, of the 8 tossup states and still win.  He needs 4 with New Hampshire/Iowa/Nevada/one more, just the first 3 don't get to 270.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:46:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Swiftboating, Willie Horton, ni66ers on welfare (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        The Repubs know how to play ugly. Very very ugly. And they got the bucks to make an ugly game all across the board.

      •  I doubt it (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        So far he's run a very narrowly focussed campaign, with almost all the serious money going into the Obama 08 states with margins of victory under 10%. The only exceptions have been Indiana, which both campaigns seem for now at least to assume will revert to the Republicans anyway, and Nevada, which has at times polled relatively weakly for Obama and which has been one of the most severely hit by the economic crisis.

        There would have to be very good reason for adding additional states to the list when nationally Obama is only down around 4 points nationally on his 08 performance - the odds of success are just too low, other things being equal, to make it worth the diversion of campaign time and money from the other key battlegrounds, especially when not one of those has yet been locked down for Romney.

        Wisconsin though does look like a worthy exception,  to put alongside Nevada. I expect the campaign to expand there but  - unless Romney holds a national lead after both conventions are concluded  - I reckon that's it, nowhere else. On the offchance Romney does really move the polls in the course of the next few weeks an outside bet would be Pennsylvania, but I suspect memories of the McCain campaign's fruitless last-ditch blitz of PA will make them cautious.

      •  Really? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        The Caped Composer

        Romney will have the kind of money to blow that he can afford to spend in states where he's behind by double-digits?

        Whatever you say, Mark...

        Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

        by NMLib on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:37:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Obama Did In 2008. (0+ / 0-)

          Wasn't he advertising in Kentucky and West Virginia in the end to theoretically boost turnout for Lunsford and Rockefeller?

          •  There's overlap in the media markets... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            The Caped Composer, jncca

            Parts of West Virginia are in the DC media market; while parts of Ohio are in the Louisville market. Just because ads happened to be playing in Kentucky and West Virginia, doesn't mean that they were the intended targets.

            By the way, I accept the premise that campaigns look out for themselves, but even if I didn't; Rockefeller won his election by close to 30 points, he wasn't being helped by anyone.

            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

            by NMLib on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:53:41 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  whacko MI poll...Baydoun Foster? (0+ / 0-)

      I saw that on Real Clear Politics yesterday.  Don't know anything about them, but they're based in Michigan, and have Romney up by 4 pts in the state.  Is MI really in play?

      If Wisconsin is a tossup, and MI is vulnerable, it's not good news.

      Oregon:'s cold. But it's a damp cold.

      by Keith930 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:15:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yes that one (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Keith930, sacman701

        But don't worry. They have an MI sample which has under-30s as under 4%, African Americans at 6%, while over-50s constitute more than 80% of those questioned.

        It's garbage, pure and simple. Or in case you want to try quantifying how garbagey it is, Nate Silver gives them an 11 point Republican house effect - i.e. a 4 point Romney lead in one of their polls is more likely "really" a 7 point Obama lead.

        Hope that's enough to talk you down. MI is not in play.

  •  Reuters & Pew polls could be coming (5+ / 0-)

    today or tomorrow. Pew will probably show Obama up a little more than NBC/WSJ; Reuters will probably be about the same, maybe a little less.

    Also expect ARG to finally release a national H-2-H in the coming days, they are scheduled for their monthly presidential approval poll and I can't imagine they won't include candidate preferences from now on.

    •  I hope so (0+ / 0-)

      Is it just me or is there a real decline in public polling this cycle? Maybe it's new orgs cutting back because of the economy. Of course the cable nets have to be seeing record revenue because of the election. We might also see another FOX poll. That has been surprisingly good for Obama.

      2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

      by HarlemUSA on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:36:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Also (0+ / 0-)

      There are not a lot of state polls landing either. A lot of news orgs ramped up on poll and numbers geeks for the elections and they just have not had that much to write about.

      2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

      by HarlemUSA on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:39:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  We're gonna have to just hang in... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer

      Polling for the next three weeks will be skewed by the RNC covention.  But we get the last word.  

      No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices. - Edward R. Murrow

      by CrazyHorse on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:17:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  SUSA NV: Obama 47-45 (9+ / 0-)
    Those polled included 39 percent registered Democrats, 36 percent registered Republicans and 23 percent registered as independents. That roughly reflects the current Nevada electorate, although Democrats account for more than 41 percent and are expanding their advantage.
    Hispanics accounted for 19 percent of those surveyed, which is several percentage points higher than actual turnout at 15 percent of the electorate in the past two elections, in 2010 and 2008.

    The new SurveyUSA poll showed Obama and Romney dividing the Hispanic vote 48 percent for the president and 47 percent for the former Massachusetts governor - a result even the pollster questioned. In June, a Latino Decisions poll showed Obama leading Romney among Hispanics, 69 percent to 20 percent.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 05:46:17 AM PDT

  •  Warren ads (5+ / 0-)

    I have friends who live in Mass and they tell me that Warren's ads are horrible . She is coming off as shrill and self righteous
    meanwhile Brown is coming off as nice guy moderate.

    hopefully her convention speech will help reboot her campaign

    "Although it is not true that all conservatives are stupid people, it is true that most stupid people are conservative." - John Stuart Mill

    by smartone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 05:52:26 AM PDT

  •  That PPP... (2+ / 0-)

    poll also finds 41% of Massachusetts voters find Warren too liberal.

    "It's almost as if we're watching Mitt Romney on Safari in his own country." -- Jonathan Capeheart

    by JackND on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:33:38 AM PDT

  •   Warren is in serious trouble (15+ / 0-)

    I grew up in Ma. and female politicains do not do well in statewide races. They have never had a female governor who was elected or senator and very few females elected to congress.
    Warren is everything the blue collar working man resents. the Harvard educated woman who they think is not one of   them.
    Her only chance is to say if you elect Brown, Mitch McConnell will be senate majority leader.

  •  RAss MT: Romney 55-38 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:36:39 AM PDT

    •  he also has Romney +2 on the tracker (0+ / 0-)

      FWIW, compared to yesterday's +1.

      •  that just doesn't seem feasable (0+ / 0-)

        You have to figure Akin has turned off a lot of woman to the republicans. I think Scotty is getting ready to give Romney a 10 point bump next week.
        I guess we need to see what Gallup shows.Their horse race # hasn't changed in a week.

    •  Good Lord! (0+ / 0-)

      2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

      by HarlemUSA on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:41:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  If that were the case (0+ / 0-)

      it conflicts badly with Rehberg ahead by only 4 or 5 points on a recent poll. Montana has a far more solid Dem vote than North Dakota, where Obama is losing fairly badly, but Heitkamp is pulling folks with open minds (downballot).

      •  It doesn't conflict so much. (0+ / 0-)

        Montana is the New Hampshire of the West-- its voters are fiercely independent with a strong libertarian streak, and willing to split their tickets based on candidates (or, at least, perceptions of candidates. But perception is everything in politics!) It is definitely conceivable that there will be a large enough number of Romney-Tester voters out there to put the senator with the flat-top over the top.

        (A side note: I've always thought Tester should use the Beatles' "Come Together" as his campaign theme song. The chorus of the song is a call for unity, which is always good for political campaigns, but the bonus is the first line of the song: "Here come ol' Flat Top, he come groovin' up slowly . . . ")

        29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. Mitt Romney: the Kama Sutra candidate. There's no position he hasn't tried!

        by The Caped Composer on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:50:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Re-elect Brown, MA, and I will pay for a curse (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Hockeyray, The Caped Composer

    on the Red Sox, Celtics, Patriots and Bruins to last for all eternity.

    I'm serious.

  •  Brown will lose (3+ / 0-)

    In order for him to win, 25% of Obama voters will have to split their ticket.  

    Brown won in an special election, Senate was the only contest on the ballot.  Coakley hadn't really campaigned.  She felt entitled.

    This will be a high turnout general election and Democrats will come out who haven't even started thinking about November.  The GOP has no ground game in this state, no door knockers.
    Brown is polling beyond his muscle.

  •  This comparison might upset some people (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, mconvente, Zornorph, jncca

    but I think the MA-SEN is kind of like the presidential race. Obama is like Brown, and Warren like Romney. Both Obama and Brown are personally likable incumbents, which helps them in difficult situations(a tough economy, being an R in a blue state). Warren and Romney, on paper, should be the great candidates. Warren, whose views probably match more with people in MA, and Romney, whose business experience should be an advantage in the tough economy. But neither is as personally likable as their opponent, and their opponents have gone out of their way to define them.

    Of course, all that said, both Romney and Warren could still win their elections.

  •  The biggest problem with Elizabeth Warren (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, dhshoops, pademocrat, Zornorph

    (who I love, BTW) is that, even after all her years at Harvard, hasn't learned to modulate the twang or start dropping an R here and there.

    I'm serious.

    She's fantastic. I hope she wins and I'll start supporting her for President 2016 the day after she's sworn in as Senator.

    But she's running for senator from MA and, to a Bostonian, her accent is like fingernails on a fucking blackboard.

    And if you don't think that matters, well, you don't know how parochial Bostonians are :)

    "Maybe: it's a vicious little word that could slay me"--Sara Bareilles

    by ChurchofBruce on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:48:41 AM PDT

  •  warren can do it, no defeatism here! (0+ / 0-)

    She is liekable, but as a mother, which she needs to portray herself as!

    Santorum/Bachmann 2012

    by sujigu on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:49:19 AM PDT

  •  Voters need to be reminded (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mconvente, pademocrat, jofr

    that while they think they're voting for Brown alone, they are voting for McJowly indirectly. The same McJowly who said he'd oppose every Obama initiative.

    "Valerie, why am I getting all these emails calling me a classless boor?"

    by TLS66 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:49:25 AM PDT

  •  what voter will be for Obama and against Warren? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Seriously,  what would be the mentality of a voter being for Obama and voting against Warren?

    and vice versa.

    I don't understand at all how a Scott Brown gets even 30% in Mass.  

    Warren needs to strongly tap into Kennedy spirit somehow.

  •  Marquette poll due out today (7+ / 0-)

    At least on the senate race.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:50:13 AM PDT

    •  They always poll it all & release all the same day (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      What's funny is Charles Franklin and his crew always choose to headline the state-level findings, and tack on Presidential stuff as secondary.

      But they always poll the Presidential stuff in every poll, and always release everything together the same day.

      If they follow their recent practice, they will let everything out in a live-tweeted press conference, then afterward link the poll itself on their web site.  So follow the Marquette Law polling twitter handle to get the earliest info.  Maybe there is live online video of the presser, but I've never bothered to find out.

      This is huge, I've grown to trust Marquette Law the most out of any public pollster in Wisconsin.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:38:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Republicans ask WI Sup Ct to reinstate ID law (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:51:02 AM PDT

  •  Please, Ms. Warren. . . (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, mconvente, pademocrat

    I hope she's (and her campaign's) smart enough to make this less about how likable the candidates are than about how her opponent is a symbol of the Republicans in Washington.

    He's working hard to distance himself from Republicans and his recent votes with the Democrats insulate him (to a degree) from the other Republicans.

    She needs to illustrate his role as a Republican soldier, typically doing the bidding of Rove, Norquist, Cheney and the Kochs. Frame the race as a referendum on Republican policies and tactics in Washington.

    The victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.

    by Pacifist on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:54:04 AM PDT

  •  Scott is successful because he's NOT running (6+ / 0-)

    as a REPUBLICAN. In ads he distances himself from the Republican Party, touting his "independence" from them. This way he appeals to independents, libertarians and government haters.
    Of course, as someone else said here on Kos, Brown votes with the right if they need the vote. If they don't need the vote, he votes against, thus allowing himself to be seen as someone who does not toe the party line.
    Scotti? You're a Republican. Although you call for Akin to drop from his Senate race, your own party's platform has a radical view of women, abortion and our rights as human beings. As such, you ARE the party as much as the nutjobs that run it. If you don't want to vote their way then don't wear the "R" after your name.

    Isn’t it ironic to think that man might determine his own future by something so seemingly trivial as the choice of an insect spray. ~ Rachel Carson, Silent Spring ~

    by MA Liberal on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:54:21 AM PDT

  •  //Warren needs to point out (6+ / 0-)

    Brown held up financial regulation until he was able to get tax payers to foot the 19 million in costs for the bill's implementation.  She also needs to run ads and let people know that he voted for the Blunt amendment, while he's telling Akin to step down, that he voted against the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, and that he's donating campaign cash to 3 of the idiots in Congress who are running for the Senate who also voted for the same re-define rape bill that Ryan co-sponsored in the House.  I also think the President and even Vicki Kennedy should get out there and implore women to get more involved.  We've got to crush this brillo headed loser.  She should also point out early and often how Brown is trying to kill Obamacare while keeping his daughters on the plan!  He should be painted as being every bit the flip flopper as Mittens and how a vote for Brown is a vote for a Republican controlled Congress!

  •  Warren's problem is she is a woman... (6+ / 0-)

    And the Mass Dem Machine is an old boys club.  Boston mayors coming out in support of Brown should result in excommunication from the party.  Does Brown call up Menino and talk sports? Do they play in the same fantasy football league?

    In a state that will go 60-40 for Pres Obama, if they send Brown back into the Senate, very likely flipping the Senate to give McConnell and the GOP the majority that they deserve everything they'll get when they see how the GOP obstructs everything, forces terrible bills though congress and dares the President to shut down government or to sign it.  And then these same jackasses who voted for Pres Obama and Brown (or didn't vote at all) will bitch and moan about how Obama isn't being strong and standing up to the Senate - when they were personally responsible for crowning McConnell as Senate majority leader.  

    An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

    by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 06:58:00 AM PDT

  •  if the voters in mass (4+ / 0-)

    are gullible enough to vote for brown over warren they are making a horrible mistake, brown is another wolf in sheeps clothing while warren is a true protector of the people, wisc made this mistake with walker and look at their mess, wake up mass, warren is a fantastic candidate and will upgrade the senate conversation just by being there.

  •  FL 26: Rivera may have broken federal law (9+ / 0-)
    Fueled with $43,000 in secret money, Republican Rep. David Rivera helped run a shadow campaign that might have broken federal laws in last week’s Democratic primary against his political nemesis Joe Garcia, according to campaign sources and finance records.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:02:37 AM PDT

  •  Makes me wonder about the Kennedys (4+ / 0-)

    Do Massachusetts voters just like to vote for handsome men with good heads of hair?

  •  More speakers announced for DNC (6+ / 0-)

    Lily Ledbetter, Tammy Baldwin, Tammy Duckworth, Sandra Fluke, Barbara Mikulski, Nancy Keenan(head of NARAL), Eva Longoria.


  •  MO-Sen (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jpmassar, pademocrat, KingofSpades

    FWIW, I went back and crunched the numbers based on the 2008 and 2010 exit polls in Missouri for the flash PPP poll, which had a whopping 9-point advantage for the GOP in turnout.

    If you assume a 2010 turnout, where Republicans only had a 3-point advantage, McCaskill beats Akin, 45.1%-41.59%.

    And if you assume a 2008 turnout, where Democrats had a 6-point advantage, McCaksill beats Akin, 49.26%-39.04%.

    And since it seems reasonable to think that turnout won’t be as GOP-friendly as it was in 2010, but probably not as good for Obama as it was in 2008 either, the turnout will probably be somewhere in between. In that case, based on the PPP numbers, McCaskill should have somewhere between a 3-10 point lead over Akin.

    That is, assuming PPP got the vote by party breakdown correct, and McCaskill gets 88% of the Democratic vote that does turn out, Akin gets 71% of the GOP vote, and independents slightly go for Akin as well.

  •  Akin leaves the door open to dropping out (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLDemocrat, LordMike, DCCyclone
    I’m never going to say everything that could possibly happen,” Akin said on ABC’s “Good Morning America.” “I don’t know the future

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:09:20 AM PDT

  •  Warren needs to be aggressive and go negative (5+ / 0-)

    I'm a very active dem. in the Baystate and am watching this race at the ground level and can say that Warren is getting blown away in the media battle.  Brown's TV spots featuring moderate to conservative retired elected Dems (Ray Flynn, Mayor of Worcseter, Dist Atty) are devestating. He is saying to the independants and conservative Dems, "I'm like you, she's not".  To be honest she is not like those voters and will never be but she cannot let the meme go unrebutted.  
    Instead, Warren is advertising policy (consumer agency, middle class values, anti wall street....)  This is a fatal mistake as the I's and conservadems will decide this election.  She needs to go after Brown and say,"he's not like you because he's voted ....,  said ....., and aligned himself with extremists  who may control the Senate" Scare the middle of the roaders by showing them what they'll get with him (repeal of Roe v. Wade, Ryan budget, party of NO, fillibusters... )
    His message has already convinced my 19 year liberal son and some I can't believe will be voting for him.  This election is slipping through her fingers.  Warren is not going to win the "I'm like you" battle.  But she can win enough of the "No, he's not" air war if she fights it.  If she chooses to continue to do soft policy spots I fear this race is lost.

    •  Stupid dems and their stupid "policy" (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      pitch.  Haven't they fucking learned yet?  If you don't connect emotionally, you lose.  The Dems should be scaring the shit out of the voting public about what the GOP will do to them.  Only in that context does policy matter.

      Warren sucks as a candidate.  She's just doesn't have "it."


      by GOPGO2H3LL on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:16:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Warren is a shitty candidate. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Just horrid.  Great ideas.  Shitty candidate.

    Sorry, it is what it is.


    by GOPGO2H3LL on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:13:41 AM PDT

  •  It's Hard To Believe (0+ / 0-)

    How people can vote for a guy (or gal) who is so obviously a tool of big business interests is beyond me. The choice is very clear in this race and yet, people are choosing personality over their best interests.

    If you are a hard working American facing the challenges we all face everyday feeding our families and providing a decent life for our children, how on earth could you walk into a voting booth and pull the lever for Scott Brown?

    "No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."

  •  Boy, what a collection of Gloomy Gusses (12+ / 0-)

    on the MA senate race.  

    A lot of people seem to be ready to give up and concede defeat.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:19:59 AM PDT

  •  Look at the crosstabs (5+ / 0-)

    It's very clear what's happening here. There are two effects:

    * Men mostly dislike Warren, whereas women mostly like Brown.

    * Moderates tend to see Brown as an independent voice for MA rather than a partisan, and many more moderates view Warren as too liberal than view Brown as too conservative.

    We're currently losing this thing in much the same way we did in 2010. The problem is that MA is sound asleep and neither Warren nor we have managed to wake it up.

  •  She needs to address the big issue... (5+ / 0-)

    ...which is she is not one of us.

    Her accent does grate on my ears. Her lack of knowledge of local institutions does trouble me. I want one of my own to represent me in Congress. But...

    Barney Frank overcame the same problem. He did it by being himself: a loudmouth stereotypical N.Y. Jew. Forget the p.c.: it was HIS initial campaign strategy and it worked brilliantly.

    Warren needs to be the kick ass b*&ch who will kick the balls of the Protestant bankers who have been oppressing good Catholics for decades. Photo op with Gerry Adams perhaps?

    Direct talk. 'I've never been a model like Scott...I had to work my way through school as x'. Go after Brown's modeling career. Use photos of Scott the model...a TV ad using those accusing him of still acting (votes one way, comes back home and says another thing)...

    You need to make Scott Brown the effete pretty boy liar controlled by New Yorkers...and it will all work out.

  •  MI-11: Bentivolio's reprimanded as a teacher (5+ / 0-)

    On the first day of school last year, Kerry Bentivolio told students in his English class at Fowlerville High School that he had one goal: to make each one of them cry at least once.

    Bentivolio, now the Republican candidate in Michigan's 11th Congressional District -- which includes western Wayne and Oakland counties -- also told the students that they were "just a paycheck to me," according to a description of incidents in his personnel file.

    Bentivolio's declarations earned him a verbal reprimand from his assistant principal and a formal letter demanding that he correct his behavior.

    Nine months later, school administrators reprimanded him for intimidating and threatening students by grabbing their desks and yelling in their faces or for slamming his fists on their desks.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:32:50 AM PDT

  •  WAPO/ABCNews poll on VP favorability (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    distantcousin, KingofSpades

    Ryan: 41/37/22
    Biden: 43/43/14

    Not sure if this is a tease of a full poll or just the stand alone favorability ratings, like they do for the presidential candidates.


    •  Not bad (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer

      Biden had a very rough week last week. Ryan had a lot of glowing coverage. If this is a GOP high water mark then we can live with that.

      2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

      by HarlemUSA on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:41:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  A "very rough week" manufactured by the media (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, LordMike

        once again taking their cues from the Romney campaign. They're totally dancing around Ryan extreme right-wing positions and voting record.

        btw I just found out recently that Biden won on every single insta-polling question following the '08 debate, yet incredibly, after all her vapid answers and winks to the camera, viewers found Palin more likable.

        So the fact Ryan, even after all the gushing from the media, has worse favorability than Biden, is interesting.

    •  this is less good than it looks for Ryan (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, irmaly, pademocrat, JBraden

      as history suggests that more of the 22% currently undecided are likely to end up in the "unfavorable" than "favorable" column. Most commonly the initial numbers for the VP candidate are as good as they get. And naturally this means that you can't make a straight comparison with Biden, who is no longer a fresh face.

      Still too early to make a definitive judgement but the numbers so far on Ryan suggest that he's doing no more than rally the Republican base, and frankly I think the base was always going to rally behind Romney eventually anyway as they couldn't stomach voting for Obama. It adds nothing to the ticket's appeal to moderates, indeed could easily detract from it if some of Ryan's unpopular positions receive much airtime. Only in Wisconsin does it look at least possible that Ryan adds something to the ticket.

      Overall I still think he should have gone with Portman.

  •  the blue collar vote should always be reminded (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, The Caped Composer

    pf Brown's desire to move the Sox out of Fenway - that alone should damn him with the MA white male bloc

    Don't roof rack me bro', Now the brown's comin' down; Präsidentenelf-maßschach; "Nous sommes un groupuscule" (-9.50; -7.03) "Ensanguining the skies...Falls the remorseful day".政治委员, 政委‽ Warning - some snark above ‽

    by annieli on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:35:51 AM PDT

  •  Poll reflects voters rewarding him on abortion (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    stand against Akin.  Not clear if the lead will maintain.

    The only thing we have to fear is fear itself - FDR. Obama Nation. -6.13 -6.15

    by ecostar on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:39:46 AM PDT

    •  no way (0+ / 0-)

      What percent of MA voters do you think know of Brown's statements on Akin?

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 02:01:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CA-26: Strickland's first ad is an attack ad (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I haven't seen the ad and can't find a link to it yet, but the DCCC has a description.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 07:55:23 AM PDT

  •  Really? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, PorridgeGun

    So MA is going to vote to destroy Social Security and Medicare?  Romney/Ryan will do just that.  

    The Kennedys must be spinning in their graves.

    •  People only care about themselves (0+ / 0-)

      My relatives are the worse example of that.  Here they are getting a pension and health care from the government but they couldn't care less if Medicare is turned into a voucher system.  Oh yeah they live in MA!

      So here's the problem.  Until we have ONE health care system that we all must live with, we will have people who won't give a damn about other people's health care.  That is how the political system divides us and how these swine keep winning.

      "The real wealth of a nation consists of the contributions of its people and nature." -- Rianne Eisler

      by noofsh on Sun Aug 26, 2012 at 06:39:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Don't complain, don't worry . . . (0+ / 0-)

    ... fight.

  •  The LADY (0+ / 0-)

    I swear this is the last time I'm posting until this election (hurray 77 days), though I'd like to dairy a simple (76) (75) etc., graphic. It's called PANIC!, is over.
    I'm 61 from California (Thank You, Scott McKenzie "Be Sure To wear Some Flowers in Your Hair").
    I've been thinking I'd like to send this bit of writing to every newspaper's editorial in Massachusetts.
    Hello, We are here in Ca., remember us? For as long as I've been alive, you have been our brother/sister fellow DEMOCRATIC, blue as the deep sea, state. NY is also, but Massachusetts, you are OUR sublime, knowledge sitting in a library reading, elder teachers.
    Both of us have had a time with electing Governors. Hell, we elected Arnold, the cheatest, but living in the basement & no one asked about his taxes. Sorry sisses & bros, but you take the cake!
    What in the hell has happened to you? We all know the answer to that, the devastation to one of the greatest families in all history.
    Here is the deal. WE have TWO of the greatest FEMALE Senators in all history.
    Sorry to be so blundt, but it's about time you get off your depressed arses & elect a REALLY intelligent SENATOR, to fill Ted's old seat. Who is as cool as cool gets AND is a FEMALE. We need our brothers & sisters & to have your, back.
    The climate's about to freak out & "Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy night (ride)!"
    THE LADY from Massachusetts.
    Since this is my last I SWEAR!
    POLLovian… Ugh!
    In nowadays, google your own name, the 1% & their OWNED media at WAR with the 99%, who would STEAL our rights to vote, let alone their, excuse my FRENCH, machine COUNTS!

  •  I suspect that Warren is toast (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    unless Brown shoots himself in the feet, Akin-style, or if Obama has extremely long and strong coattails in November. From everything I've read here and elsewhere posted by Massachusetts residents, her ads are not particularly strong as compared to the pablum Brown is producing, and she's swimming against a long-standing tide of patriarchial (if not overtly misogynist) attitudes when it comes to female politicians in Massachusetts.

  •  Whereas Politico journos turn on me...... (5+ / 0-)

    I giggled to myself upon finding that Jonathan Martin blocked me on Twitter for criticizing one of his recent pieces on the site.

    Now I had this Twitter exchange this morning with Maggie Haberman:

    Akin says Ryan advised him he should step down for good of party. Not same as making direct ask that he go ...

    .@maggiepolitico Um, yes that is a direct ask. "Advising" what he "should" do is a direct ask.

    @DCCyclone thanks for weighing in

    I've found her to be not very good in thinking though what she reads/sees, but I just marvel that she read Akin's relaying of what Ryan told him as NOT a "direct ask."

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:27:05 AM PDT

  •  I think come November (0+ / 0-)

    all rethugs will be kicked to the curb.

  •  As a MA resident, I'm not optimistic (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    netop, cordgrass

    As weird as it may seem, MA is not as deep blue as people think. Once you're outside of Boston/Cambridge, it gets purple to red. Brown owns the western part of the state and metro west, and he does well in the suburbs. Yes, it's a content free campaign. But he has the conservative Herald and conservative radio backing him. And Brown has been making a point of moving to the center/left just enough to capture enough Dem and Independent votes to more than make up for any tea party backlash.

    And MA residents do take great pleasure in being "independent". Voting for Brown gives them some street cred in what is perceived to be a very liberal state. And the angry conservative white guy is plentiful in MA. Plus, Elizabeth Warren hasn't broken through with a resonating message. Her ads have come across as  - I don't know - schoolteacher preachy?

    •  He doesn't "own" the west side of the state. (4+ / 0-)

      No way the Berkshires will vote for him.

      •  Northampton won't vote for Brown, but do you have (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        any insight into how she is faring in some of the less safely liberal parts of western Mass?   Any idea how she's doing with rural voters?  I wish the PPP poll had given some geographic data.

        "Keep your feet on the ground and keep reaching for the stars" --Casey Kasem

        by netop on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:40:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I haven't heard (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, cordgrass

          a breakdown of poll results geographically. I can just speak in general terms that are pretty well known anyway. She will win Boston, Cambridge and more urban areas. He does better in more rural areas in central and Western MA like Worcester county. My point is that Brown is moving far enough left to keep the margin of his losses down in suburbs he doesn't expect to win. He's released a couple ads featuring endorsements from present and former Dem office holders - what other republican would ever do that? I'm voting for Elizabeth Warren and I hope I'm wrong but I think Brown wins by a bigger margin than people think. Just a gut feeling, I know. I'm speaking from the gut and it makes me sad. but people vote viscerally, not after careful analysis of issues.

        •  Brown is casting Warren as anti-business... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          netop, Masshole George, LordMike

          ...this has resulted in a lot of Brown signs popping up on farmsteads.  And since they have so much road frontage, one supporter can put up a whole lot of signs.  Of course, lawn signs have little predictive value.

          Warren's ads seem to be preaching to the choir, tackling national issues, albeit ones that do impact the pocket-book.  She makes a great case about broader economic issues, but is not presenting herself as someone who will look after the interests of small business (the real small business, not the Beohner version of it.)

          She needs to make it very clear what her campaign may deem to be too obvious to mention: that she'll be spending most of her time on constituent services.  If voters view her as primarily a champion fighting for big abstract causes, rather than a person who will take on back-yard, day to day problems, she will not win.  Brown has managed to present himself as well connected, despite his compulsive-liar-syndrome "kings and queens" gaffe.

          Also Brown is trying to parry the dysfunction in Washington into a centrist-fellating line about reaching across the aisle, implying that Warren will just add to the dysfunction by being a partisan.  That I'm not sure will work as well wih MA voters and their pro-gridlock tendencies, but Warren's response has been that she'll obviously work well with Obama, so the pro-gridlock block really doesn't come into play this year.

          Ignorance is Curable.

          by skids on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 12:52:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Sorry, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        shouldn't generalize to that degree. Point is, central/western MA are his strengths and he's just trying to keep his losses down in her strongholds. Just judging by general sentiment and water-cooler conversations, I think he'll succeed. Lot of college-educated suburban voters are going for Brown - even against their own interests. They like him and his wife and his American Idol daughter and the fact he drives a truck.

  •  Warren could be great (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Masshole George, SLDemocrat

    for Ma. She may have a mannerism, I think, not unlike Joe Sestak in the urgent genuineness they both seem to portray that almost seems like begging. I mean this constructively. Perhaps a body language expert could define what I,m trying to say. A "hungry" salesman is usually seen as such and inadvertently often kills a sale. She and Joe both belong in the senate, and I hope she gets on the right track soon.

    •  That's a good (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, SLDemocrat

      description. She does seem to be pleading. Even though it's earnest and well-intended, it comes across as a bit desperate. I hope she knocks it out of the park at the convention and can then draw some starker contrasts with Brown - even if that means going a little negative. She needs to give people a reason to throw out the incumbent.

  •  Why is she still getting beat up over this (0+ / 0-)

    Indian heritage stuff?  I just spoke to relatives who are voting for Brown just because they think she is lying about the Indian heritage.  Elizabeth Warren should simply say that this is what she was told as a child but she never independently verified her genealogy.  That would be true of 99.99% of us.  It's a mistake to say she is 100% sure of her background based on stories she heard as a child.

    "The real wealth of a nation consists of the contributions of its people and nature." -- Rianne Eisler

    by noofsh on Sun Aug 26, 2012 at 06:35:17 AM PDT

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