Came across this little nugget courtesy of the Twitter.
A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.
The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.
Now before you go discounting them, they claim to have correctly predicted the last 8 elections:
It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.The model seems to stress economic factors above all else, not taking into account or deemphasizing approval ratings, likability, social issues...
In an examination of other factors, the authors found that none of the following had any statistically significant effect on whether a state ultimately went for a particular candidate: The location of a party's national convention; the home state of the vice president; or the partisanship of state governors.They also make the claim that Pres. Obama will lose MOST of the swing states:
In 2012, "What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida," Bickers said.So don't start celebrating just yet!
Has anyone heard of this group before?