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Leading Off:

CT-Sen: It certainly looks like Linda McMahon's massive spending spree has paid off: Quinnipiac's new poll shows the Republican wrestling mogul leading Dem Rep. Chris Murphy 49-46, up from a 46-43 Murphy edge in early June. In addition to McMahon's huge advertising blitz, Quinnipiac also switched from a registered voter model to a likely voter model, which partly explains the shift. I'd also note that despite McMahon's attempted makeover, it seems like her negative ads have had more of an impact than her positive spots: Murphy's favorability is now 38-30, compared to 37-17 in June, while hers has changed very little, going from 45-38 to 47-35.

In the same survey, by the way, Obama leads Romney by just 52-45, which is very similar to what PPP found at the end of last month (also using an LV sample). You gotta wonder who these Obama-McMahon voters are. But regardless, the Murphy campaign isn't disputing Quinnipiac's findings, saying in a statement: "This was always going to be a tough race, and we don't take anything for granted and neither should McMahon."

Senate:

AZ-Sen: In his first ad, a veteran who trained alongside Democrat Richard Carmona narrates just a portion of Carmona's absolutely remarkable biography: a poor high school dropout who joined the Army, served in the Special Forces in Vietnam, then became a doctor and eventually Surgeon General of the United States. (And though the spot doesn't mention it, he was awarded two Bronze Stars and two Purple Hearts.) The only thing it's lacking is any reference to the fact that Carmona is running for Senate, but I'm guessing that must be deliberate.

FL-Sen: If it's not the largest third-party purchase of web ads for a Senate race this cycle, it's certainly up there: The NRA just bought a whopping $347K worth of online ads for the purposes of hitting Dem Sen. Bill Nelson. That goes along with their previous six-figure purchases in Virginia and Ohio. I wonder if they're getting good bang (har har) for their buck.

Meanwhile, GOP Rep. Charlie Sheen IV (sometimes known by his nickname, Connie Mack) is out with a new spot that's 30 seconds of word salad about "freedom."

MA-Sen: Pre-primary fundraising reports were just due in Massachusetts (covering the period of July 1 to Aug. 17), and once again, Democrat Elizabeth Warren smoked Republican Sen. Scott Brown. Warren pulled in $3.7 million versus $2.3 million for Brown, though the incumbent has more cash on hand, $14.2 mil to $12.3.

While we're on the race, Brown has a new TV ad out. He takes his truck out to Gloucester, where he sings a paean to Massachusetts fisherman—but also claims they've been "hit with over-regulation, unfair enforcement, and crushing fines."

MO-Sen: In the previous Digest, we mentioned a new FL-Sen poll from a firm called Gravis Marketing. My colleague Steve Singiser undertook a little sleuthing and found that Gravis does, in fact, bear all the hallmarks of being a Republican outfit, so we thought you should know that. And it also turns out that they conducted a one-day poll of Missouri late last week, finding Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill up two (39-37) over Todd Akin, but Mitt Romney up 17! So, uh, yeah.

And speaking of the Missouri Senate race, it looks like Crossroads isn't bluffing—or at least, that they've raised the stakes considerably. According to Politico, American Crossroads (the super PAC arm) has cancelled $700K worth of TV time on behalf of Akin that had been scheduled for mid-September. But as Alexander Burns notes, both Crossroads and the NRSC still have plenty of time reserved. And they can always buy back more time later—they'll just have to pay a premium to do so, something they'll gladly do if this gambit succeeds in getting Akin out of the race.

NE-Sen: Somehow, that weird super PAC called End the Gridlock found another $200K in the kitty for a second round of TV and radio ads attacking Deb Fischer on behalf of Democrat Bob Kerrey. Earlier reporting claimed that the well-known super PAC Majority PAC was partly funding End the Gridlock, but are they really still throwing good money after bad at this late date? Or is it Kerrey's wealthy finance buds in NYC who are setting this cash on fire?

NV-Sen: PPP is out with the Senate portion of their Nevada poll; this is turning into one of those races like Virginia where the numbers hardly budge from poll to poll. This month, they find Republican quasi-incumbent Dean Heller beating Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley 47-45 (after a 44-43 lead for Heller in June). Of course, it would be preferable to see Berkley in front, but consider that she's holding steady after a) the switch to a likely voter model and b) much Republican trumping of the ethics committee proceedings against Berkley, which began since the last poll.

Berkley's favorables are 42/45, down a net 4 since June, while Heller's are 42/42. Maybe more importantly considering what's been in the news lately, as for the question as to whether Berkley is ethical, 43% say she is, while 39% say she is unethical, not that much different from the poll's overall partisan breakdown. She still has a difficult climb to 50+1, but she remains in the thick of things.

The sample also gives Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval a gold-plated 55/28 approval and a 53-35 victory in over a Generic Dem in 2014. Harry Reid, on the other hand, is at 44/50 approvals. And with control of the state Senate on the line this year, Dems lead 45-41 on the generic legislative ballot. (David Jarman)

OH-Sen: When it comes to delivering speeches, Republican Josh Mandel has about as much gravitas as a Bar Mitzvah boy lecturing the congregation about his Torah portion, but that's not about to stop him from doing so in his latest ad. Sitting on a stool in the middle of a factory floor, surrounded by every-men and every-women, Mandel exclaims: "Every Democrat and every Republican who took our tax dollars and bailed out Wall Street was dead wrong."

Gubernatorial:

MT-Gov: Democrat Steve Bullock's new ad uses a pretty good conceit: As he strides through a courtroom, the gallery is filled with various folks who stand in for the sorts of people Bullock represented in his capacity as attorney general. You've got your ordinary-looking homeowners (foreclosure prevention), hunters in camo (preserving public access), and kids on iPads (protecting them online). Pretty good messaging for a tough race in a red state.

House:

CA-26: Trolling the depths of YouTube, I came across this negative ad from Republican Tony Strickland, which he doesn't appear to have posted to his YouTube account. (Actually, he doesn't even seem to have a YouTube account.) Anyhow, it's a kitchen-sink assault on Democrat Julia Brownley, smearing her as Nancy Pelosi's handpicked "Los Angeles liberal." (Brownley's from outside the district, though represents a chunk of the CA-26 in the Assembly.) Strickland then attacks her for supporting high-speed rail "for L.A." while supposedly cutting "programs Ventura County" to pay for it, then tosses on some of the usual Obamacare lies for good measure.

CT-05: Here's some brighter news out of Connecticut: The DCCC commissioned a poll from Global Strategy Group which features Democrat Elizabeth Esty beating Republican Andrew Roraback 44-35. I think the generic ballot is also instructive here, since both candidates are still light on name rec; on that score, D beats R 48-38, which, if accurate, paints a much brighter picture of the electorate for Team Blue. No presidential toplines were included in the memo, though.

Meanwhile, after taking a post-primary vacation with his family, Chris Donovan has reached out to Esty regarding the Working Families Party endorsement. As you may recall, Donovan (a big labor supporter) received the WFP's backing quite some time ago and is still on the ballot. But obviously no one wants to see Donovan siphon votes from Esty, so ideally the WFP would simply replace Donovan with Esty. Donovan's now signaled he's on board with this, and Esty is meeting with party officials on Tuesday. The good news is that unlike in New York, where getting removed from a third party's line is absurdly arduous, switcheroos are pretty simple in Connecticut.

IN-08: I like the production values in Democrat Dave Crooks' first ad, and the messaging is interesting, too. He starts off talking about his (very) small-town roots, noting that his "mom and sister worked for American Latex before those jobs went to Malaysia." Then, mixed in with some footage of overseas protests, he says: "Every politician promises to stop the outsourcing, but it never gets done. Instead, they send our tax dollars to countries that hate us, and at home, they slash away at our Medicare benefits." That's definitely a sharper attitude about outsourcing than the usual bland "companies that ship jobs overseas" rhetoric. Crooks is running against GOP freshman Larry Bucshon, who isn't on the air yet.

MA-06: In the Bay State's lone competitive House race, Republican Richard Tisei continues to outraised Rep. John Tierney. In the pre-primary period, Tisei took in $173K to Tierney's $126K. The incumbent, however, still leads in terms of cash-on-hand, with $729K to $631K. However, Tisei is already advertising on television while Tierney has not done so yet.

NC-07, UT-04: House Majority PAC is running two new ads, both in Dem-held seats. In NC-07, they're attacking Republican David Rouzer as "lobbyist politician" who wants to replace Medicare with a voucher program (i.e., the Ryan plan). And in UT-04, they go after Republican Mia Love for voting to raise taxes while serving on the city council in Saratoga Springs, where she is now mayor. The North Carolina buy is reportedly for $65K and Utah for $200K, both over two weeks.

NC-08: It looks like Republican Richard Hudson is trying to push back against Dem Rep. Larry Kissell's latest poll with one of his own, but the details are pretty thin. Hudson says his survey (from OnMessage) shows him up 38-37, but all we have are field dates—he apparently hasn't even shared the sample size. In any event, the spread isn't a wildly different from what Kissell's survey found (he was up 43-39), but once again, we have no presidential toplines to provide a sanity check.

RI-01: A new WPRI poll (courtesy Fleming & Associates) finds Rep. David Cicilline improving his standing over Anthony Gemma in the Democratic primary, a couple of weeks ahead of the Sept. 11 election. The survey (with a very small sample of 302 likely voters) finds Cicilline leading 43-31. That compares with a 40-36 edge back in May. Gemma's bizarre campaign also recently found itself in hot water when a staffer tweeted on Monday that there was "nothing wrong with smearing a liar, thief, crook, Sandusky copy cat"—referring to Cicilline, who is gay. Gemma canned the aide, but his former field director also quit the campaign in disgust and endorsed Cicilline.

WI-07: Democrat Pat Kreitlow is running his first ad, a pretty humorous spot in which he pokes fun at GOP freshman Sean Duffy for his past as a reality TV celebrity and, more recently, his attempts to portray himself as a wannabe macho-man/lumberjack by trying to (very unsuccessfully) ape some of Duffy's antics. "But," says Kreitlow, "some things Sean Duffy does, I would never even try. Like making seniors pay sixty four hundred dollars a year more for Medicare so millionaires can get more tax breaks." It's very hard to cut through the clutter, but I think this ad does a decent job in a pretty self-effacing way.

Other Races:

San Diego Mayor: The latest SurveyUSA poll of the San Diego mayor's race (on behalf of KGTV) shows retiring Democratic Rep. Bob Filner expanding his margin over Republican city councilor Carl DeMaio; Filner leads 47-41, up from a 46-43 lead two months ago. It's an ostensibly nonpartisan race, though presumably most voters know who's who, and Filner seems to be strengthening his hand as the rest of the city finds out he's the Democrat. However, Dems have had a notoriously hard time getting elected San Diego mayor, despite its blue-ish turn over the last few decades at the presidential level. (David Jarman)

State Legislatures: One important component of the electoral chess game that we haven't focused on as much this cycle is the state legislatures, where the GOP made big gains in 2010 and where Dems are trying to flip some chambers back in the nation's blue and swing states. Governing magazine's Louis Jacobson has a helpful preview, including some initial handicapping of the races. His picks seem a little generous to the GOP, but do keep in mind that, just as with the U.S. House, redistricting has helped the GOP lock in some of its 2010 legislative gains. As you might expect, the key offensive opportunities that Jacobson sees for the Dems include the New York state Senate, and the state Houses in Colorado, Minnesota, Maine, and Oregon. (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

Ads: Care to help with a little crowdsourcing project? I'd like to assemble a list of YouTube accounts for basically every competitive and potentially competitive House, Senate, and gubernatorial campaign this year. The reason is simple: to keep better track of campaign ads as we approach crunch-time. I've already pulled together a spreadsheet of all the races (erring on the side of inclusion); now I just need some assistance finding links to the right YouTube pages. (Some candidates have Vimeo accounts instead, which are an acceptable substitute.) Note that incumbents may also have official accounts linked to their offices—we don't want those, just their campaign accounts, because ads only get posts to the campaign side. The best way to find those, I've found, is to scour campaign websites. Your assistance is greatly appreciated!

Counties: "Bellwether counties"—those counties that keep voting for the overall presidential winner each election—don't really have important effect on campaigns' targeting decisions. But if there's one thing we like at Daily Kos Elections, it's a good trivia question. If you've been wondering how many counties have managed to go Bush-Clinton-Clinton-Bush-Bush-Obama in the last six elections, well, there are more than you might think: 74 of them. Only a handful of them are large counties, though, and even fewer of them are in swing states. The only ones with more than 100,000 votes in the last election are San Bernardino, CA; Bexar, TX; Ventura, CA; Will, IL; San Joaquin, CA; Clackamas, OR; Stanislaus, CA; Winnebago, IL; and Buncombe, NC.

If you're looking for a pattern, the list tends to be dominated by counties that a) have a large Latino population or b) have a lot of college students (not just Buncombe, but a little further down the list, also Wood, OH; Centre, PA; DeKalb, IL; and Montgomery, VA). Vigo, IN (home of Terre Haute) is the large county with the longest track record of picking the winner, going back to 1956. (One of the dinky counties may have an even streak, though my spreadsheet doesn't go far enough back to check... anybody know of a longer streak at the county level?) (David Jarman)

Maps: Here's a fun heat map of Republican voter registration by precinct in New York City. Quite a few stark, wide swaths of empty.

Redistricting Roundup:

• TX Redistricting: Big news! On Tuesday, the three-judge panel in Washington, DC that heard Texas's preclearance lawsuit denied approval for all three of the state's new maps, invalidating lines for both houses of the legislature and Congress. (The lengthy 154-page opinion is at the link.) There may not be any practical effect on this fall's elections, since they've long since moved forward using a set of maps drawn by a different court down in San Antonio, though Michael Li thinks some tweaks might even be possible this year.) But no matter what, it definitely means that Texas Republicans, who controlled the map-making process last year and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, will have to start from scratch if they want to use a different set of maps next cycle. Unless, that is, an appeal to the Supreme Court is successful, something AG Greg Abbott says he plans to undertake immediately.

As for the practical impact of the ruling, Li has some initial thoughts here, breaking things down on a district-by-district basis. And Rick Hasen takes a closer look at the legal side, calling it a "jurisprudentially significant decision." Li calls the case "a sweeping win for DOJ and groups opposing the state's redistricting maps," and it's hard to argue with that characterization, as Democrats and minority groups seem to have won on almost every front. Of course, just wait for Scalia and the gang to get their hands on this one.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I liked the Dave Crooks ad, too (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Purdue219, bumiputera, thomask

    I think this is a potential "under the radar" race.  Larry Bucshon has been an underwhelming freshman congressman, to say the least -- no one really seems to like him very much.  Crooks is an experienced local politician who could take a run at it.

    It's a tough district, but this type of ad by Crooks hits on all  the right notes.  It's especially going to play well in the blue collar areas of Evansville and Terre Haute.  To have any shot at winning this race, Crooks is going to have to run up a large vote margin in the northern part of the district (Terre Haute and the surrounding area is still pretty Democratic, especially at the local level) and Evansville -- the really rural parts of the district are going to be tough going.

  •  So would people rate both AZ 1 and AZ 9 (0+ / 0-)

    as Democratic favored?

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 05:25:49 AM PDT

    •  "lean" or "favored," take your pick (0+ / 0-)

      I imagine people will differ between the two.  But it's no worse than "lean" for us, it's not tossup or even tossup/tilt, unless we find our candidate(s) is/are unexpectedly poor.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 06:49:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  AZ CD1 & CD9: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Paleo, SLDemocrat

      CD1:
      Total GOP Vote: 40,402
      Total DEM Vote: 46,869
      Jonathan Paton: 24,576 (60.83%)
      Ann Kirkpatrick: 29,952 (63.91%)

      Paton lives in the Tucson area, with only the very northern suburbs added to CD1 in redistricting, while Kirkpatrick lives in the district's population center of Flagstaff, several hundred miles north. As a former Congresswoman for most of the newly redrawn district, she had far more name recognition. I would rate Kirkpatrick as "favored".

      CD9:
      Total GOP Vote: 38,511
      Total DEM Vote: 29,460
      Vernon Parker: 8,863 (23.01%)
      Kirsten Sinema: 12,329 (41.85%)

      In regards to the much larger total GOP vote, CD9 is our first and only Independent plurality district, with GOP slightly ahead of Dem registration. There are no minor party candidates (no Green, no Libertarian), so I imagine almnost all GOP voters will rally behind Parker and almost all Dem voters will rally behind Sinema. The Indies will truly call the shots in this district. I would rate it "leans" toward Sinema.

      David Koch, a teacher and a Tea Partier sit down a table with a plate of a dozen cookies. Koch quickly stuffs 11 cookies in his pockets, leans to the bagger and says "watch out, the union thug will try to steal your cookie".

      by Dave in AZ on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 07:18:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  AZ CD1 & CD9 - Voter registration (0+ / 0-)

        I found the voter registration figures from the Independent Redistricting Commission:

        CD1:
        Dem: 39.6%
        Ind: 30.3%
        Rep: 30.1%

        CD9:
        Ind: 35.1%
        Rep: 33.5%
        Dem: 31.3%

        David Koch, a teacher and a Tea Partier sit down a table with a plate of a dozen cookies. Koch quickly stuffs 11 cookies in his pockets, leans to the bagger and says "watch out, the union thug will try to steal your cookie".

        by Dave in AZ on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 07:42:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  yes (0+ / 0-)

      I think AZ1 is lean D, AZ9 tilt D to lean D even though it's a bluer district and Parker probably weaker than Paton. Kirkpatrick kept it close in a much redder version of the district in a red wave year, and I think she's a solid favorite this time around. Sinema's appeal to swing voters is unproven and she will have to defuse some big potential vulnerabilities.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 08:01:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  How Obama looks in the 'true blue' states (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir

    After those bad CT numbers I did a quick check on Obama's polling performance this year in the 2008 states where he performed moderately or very strongly (at least 5 points above his national average). There are 17 states on that list, ranging from HI where his victory margin was 45 to WI where it was 14. All except three of these (HI, RI, DE) have been polled at least once this year, and I took either the current RCP averages or the average of the polls this year where no average exists.

    Results:
    - average decline is just over 6 points, with a range from -1 (IL) to -14 (MI, CT). This is very much in line with the current national polling average. So no support here for the idea of a divergence in the swing states.
    - States where he's out-performing (decline of 2 points or better) were: NY, MD, IL, ME.
    - States where he's under-performing (declines of over 10 points) were: WI (-13), MI, CT (both -14)

    CT, WI, and MI really stick out here, with much worse numbers than anywhere else. For MI I'm fairly confident that a lot of this is the poor quality of the polling; if you throw out the Mitchell and FMW  polls you get a drop of only -8, which is the low end of average. For WI I think it's much more likely that the specific factors of the recall and the Ryan pick are contributing to a stronger than average improvement for the Republicans. With CT the jury's still out - on the one hand it's much harder than with WI to see specific reasons for the big underperformance at the presidential level, but on the other hand there is less reason than in MI to question the quality of the polling.

    •  Quinnipiac (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, pademocrat

      has some uneven results in certain regions, but their polling in the NJ, NY, CT Tri State Area is the best there is. Nobody knows the demographics better than them.

      •  Quinnipiac has some polls that lean republican (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        As example:

        2010 senate
        Real Result: Blumenthal by 12
        Quinnipiac last poll: Blumenthal by 9

        2010 governor
        Real Result: Malloy by 0.5
        Quinnipiac last poll: Foley by 3

        For me it is a big mistake for a pollster to miss the winner of a race in their last poll. Even if it is a close race.

      •  Not true, Quinnipiac screwed up CT-Sen 2010 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, itskevin

        They repeatedly had McMahon polling tight with Blumenthal, and they were wrong.  Dems pushed back each time by releasing internals showing Blumenthal still up double-digits, and they were right all along.

        That doesn't mean Q is wrong this time, but it does mean they are not any stronger in the northeast than elsewhere, they've messed up like anyone can.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 06:51:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Quinnipiac and Survey USA (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          seem like they are good at the end of the cycle, but they bounce around like crazy getting there.  Even Q's final CT-SEN poll in 2010 lowballed Blumenthal though.

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

          by spiderdem on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 06:55:16 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Just remember (0+ / 0-)

          that Murphy can lose more Democrats than he gains from Republicans and be as badly destroyed amongst Independents as Malloy was against Foley but still win, if the electorate is even close to being as Democratic as it was in 2010, the worst year for our party in at least two decades, if not more. I showed as much yesterday.

          He can still lose, but as long as he doesn't sit on his ass, he should win, even if the margin is closer than we'd like.

          Also, as I said yesterday, I'll take the trade off between a likely assured win in Missouri and a competitive race in Connecticut. The latter will be fought on our turf, where we have several advantages, compared to the former, which looked like an uphill battle.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 07:15:38 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  well, ya know, (0+ / 0-)

    if your senator MUST have a truck, make sure they're both the BEST. i hope someone is fixin' to donate a '61 IH Scout to Elizabeth, for her to drive to the podium, and do some righteous barnstormin' wordage.

    * Join: OBAMA'S TRUTH TEAM * Addington's Perpwalk: TRAILHEAD of Accountability for Bush-2 Crimes.

    by greenbird on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 05:45:28 AM PDT

    •  and for your ads project ? (0+ / 0-)

      * Join: OBAMA'S TRUTH TEAM * Addington's Perpwalk: TRAILHEAD of Accountability for Bush-2 Crimes.

      by greenbird on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 05:50:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Dems keep failing to fight fire with fire! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pademocrat, bridav58, VirginiaBlue

      It's time for the Democrats to stop playing nice everywhere--from Massachusetts to Iowa to Wisconsin to every state in the country. The Republicans never ever take the high road--indeed, they continuously laugh at Democrats for doing so.

      For decades now, Rove, Norquist, the Koch Brothers and Limbaugh have been at the helm of their party--and their years and years of endless lies and smears are working.   These Republicans long ceased caring about facts and the truth!  This is something Democrats must begin to come to grips with if we ever are going to fight back effectively.  From the Presidential race to almost every down-ballot race, the Dems must run ads that concentrate on showing just how arrogant and entitled the Republican Party is--and that it is not even the party of Ronnie Reagan any more.  Whether or not Dems specifically run “attack” ads--as the Repugnicans almost exclusively do--the Dems must pound over and over the ideas that Romney and Ryan fail to pay their fair share of taxes, support Corporations and the Top 1 Percent at everyone else's expense, seek to cut Medicare, and are ready to send America back to Stone Age with their political platform. The same is true for ads in ALL races--especially in the Senate races in places like Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Wisconsin for starters.   We must show how phony a candidate is who rides around in a big truck but who sides with Wall Street every step of the way--as Mr. Cosmo Pin up Scottie does in Massachusetts. In short, Democratic candidates in all races must start connecting their Republican opponents with the Republican Party's heinous political/social agenda and platform--and not let them escape from this!

      Democratic candidates up and down the ballot have to realize that what they are up against in political races is not just a candidate but the Republican "brand." And this Republican brand has -- from decades of Culture Wars that folks like Rove and Norquist started and may indeed be winning--too often succeeded in making the Democrats look weak and on the defensive. If Democrats continue to play nice and take the high road, and not start attacking and pounding Republicans for what they really are, then the Democrats are fulfilling the Republican Party's prophecy.

  •  Democracy Corps: Obama 49-47 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, pademocrat, askew

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 06:22:16 AM PDT

  •  Clint Eastwood is the mystery speaker, or so (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, greenbird, pademocrat, askew

    an anonymous source tells Townhall, via Political Wire.

    I guess I can see this, although it seems kind of underwhelming, although I am not exactly sure which potential speaker would excite me. Maybe Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter would do the trick.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 06:22:23 AM PDT

    •  Well, you don't want it to be too overwhelming... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, askew

      ...otherwise it would overshadow Mitt.

      So, a big nothingburger with cheese, really... not much to worry about.  Clint's just an grumpy old man, now... he has some appeal, certainly, but this is no gamechanger.

      I guess they want to prevent us using the "halftime in america" theme for our convention... whatever...

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 06:31:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  So Romney will be overshadowed by two speakers (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, LordMike, pademocrat, askew

      on Thursday night.  Networks are still only showing from 10-11, and Romney will speak near an hour himself, and Rubio is introducing Romney and will probably speak for 20 minutes before hand.  

      I'd be bitter if I was one of the bumped speakers from Monday's canceled line-up and Clint Eastwood gets a spot over me.  

      Clint will probably just riff off of the Halftime in America ad.

      An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 06:31:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  For a fucking hour? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew

        Excuse my language, but for a fucking HOUR?

        I mean, I had forgotten how long Obama's speech from 2008 was. That clocked in at about 45 minutes, but then, Obama's a gifted speaker (and for what it's worth, his 2008 speech is probably my favorite). Romney's, um, less talented in that regard, and if he brings the same sort of charm and ability to connect with voters to his speech on Thursday that he has brought in the campaign so far, well...he's royally fucked.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 07:08:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Get off my lawn for the get of my lawn party (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 06:32:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I just cant believe the Republicans (8+ / 0-)

      think us real Americans care what those people in Hollywood think about politics. ;)

  •  Unfortunately (5+ / 0-)

    One can't dismiss a Q-poll the way one can dismiss Gallup or Scotty. Murphy's been caught napping.

    "Valerie, why am I getting all these emails calling me a classless boor?"

    by TLS66 on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 06:44:24 AM PDT

  •  ras still has Obama up 1 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, pademocrat, auapplemac

    He is teeing Romney up for his big bump tomorrow is my guess. He is also spinning that seniors are going for Romney by 21 only went for McCain by 8.
    Under 30 for Obama by 34. Seems to be speculating the young voters won't show up to vote and the old will be their for Romney.

  •  Brown's ad (4+ / 0-)

    about the fishermen begs the question: what has he done for them? It's like he's running as a new face who WILL do these things.

    Does he have a record regarding Mass fishermen? Haven't heard a peep.

    His other truck ad (not the one about his "tough" childhood) shows him visiting a WWII hero who got the Congressional Medal of Honor...wtf?

    The Republicans blame President Obama for even hinting that he had some say in the Bin Laden raid, but Brown latches his hooks onto the coattails of a guy whose actions occurred two decades before he was even born?

    The ad ends with this old war hero shaking his hand and saying, "Thank you, Scott, for all that you do for us" (the veterans, presumably).

    Would that include the Ryan budget that slashes vets benefits?

    Seriously, what a shameless and pandering ad.

    •  Well... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, pademocrat

      It'll probably work, though. Brown and/or his people seem to have a better idea of what will appeal to the voters than the Warren people do.

      Language professors HATE me!

      by Zornorph on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 06:54:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, I have to agree (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, pademocrat, Zornorph, auapplemac

        The biggest thing we hear from Warren is how much money she raises! Wahoo! Well, Elizabeth, you're losing and you're doing nothing to distinguish yourself from Mr. Brown, and nothing to tie him to McConnell's coattails.

        As baffling as the apparent Obama-McMahon voter in CT might be, consider that you'll have even more Obama-Brown voters in Massachusetts this year.

    •  Actually when I first saw the ad . . . (0+ / 0-)

      I googled the Thomas Hudner, the Medal of Honor recipient in the Ad.

      From Wikipedia:

      On 4 December 1950, Hudner and Brown were among a group of pilots on patrol near the Chosin Reservoir when Brown's Corsair was struck by ground fire from Chinese troops and crashed. In an attempt to save Brown from his burning aircraft, Hudner intentionally crash-landed his own aircraft on a snowy mountain in freezing temperatures to help Brown. In spite of these efforts, Brown died of his injuries and Hudner was forced to evacuate, having also been injured in the landing.
      Brown was remarkable in his own right. The first African American Naval Aviator and the first Naval Officer killed in the Korean War.
    •  He's a damn good politician - very likable (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      equern, auapplemac, Zornorph, VirginiaBlue

      We just have to hope Warren has the ground game to get her voters out and Pres Obama has long enough coattails.  I would hope we see Pres Obama cut an ad for Warren come mid-October.  

      Also if I was Warren she needs to put a picture of Brown with McConnell in every ad - tie him to a potential Republican majority in the minds of enough voters.  

      Take a page from the national GOP campaign against Pres Obama - "Brown is a nice guy, but his politics and votes are wrong for Massachusetts".  

      An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 08:30:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Warning to Warren...her problem...? (0+ / 0-)

      I'm a CA boy now, but grew up in MA. I still have family there and several close friends, and we keep in touch a lot. All of my folks are uber-liberal.

      Warning to Warren: For all it's liberal credentials, there is one thing Massachusites loathe are preachy academics, especially against someone who comes across as a "real" person.

      We can't afford to lose this race. I get emails from the Warren campaign all the time. I'm hoping she can pivot to painting Brown as bad news for Massachusetts, eviscerate him over the GOP platform, and tie him up like Siamese twins to McConnell.

      What separates us, divides us, and diminishes the human spirit.

      by equern on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 10:00:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Q2 growth revised up to 1.7%. (5+ / 0-)

    Good news, but it could be much better.

  •  Bellweather counties (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mark27, pademocrat, David Nir

    I do believe Vigo County is the champ. (Given the sea-change that has taken place in so many states since 1956 - when Vermont was ruby red and Mississippi was so Democratic the Republicans usually weren't even on the ballot - it's hard to imagine there could be too many that even came close.)

    Palo Alto County, Iowa and Crook County, Oregon were long known for voting the "right" way in every election of the 20th century, but the former supported Walter Mondale in 1984 and the latter voted for George Bush Sr in 1992.

    Certaines personnes disent qu'il y a une femme à blâmer, Mais je sais que c'est ma faute sacrément.

    by RamblinDave on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 06:55:19 AM PDT

    •  Crook County has only been getting redder since. (0+ / 0-)

      It's not anywhere near competitive now.

      Romney. Ryan. Wrong.

      by James Allen on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 08:29:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Crook County, Oregon (0+ / 0-)

        was noted in the Almanac of American Politics for voting with the winner in every Presidential election of its legal existence, until 1992.  As Michael Barone then wrote, "Anyhow, there won't be any national network reporters poking around Prineville in 1996."

        In fact, that county looks like many rural counties that used to be swingable but are now solidly red; the last time it voted Dem for President was for Carter in 1976 (ironically then, as in 1988 and after, it came out on the wrong side statewide in Oregon.)

        36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 08:43:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Linda takes the least believable Tombstone ever (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Purdue219, David Nir

    In the beginning, the universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry, and is generally considered to have been a bad move. -- Douglas Adams, The Hitch Hiker's Guide to the Galaxy

    by boriscleto on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 07:00:08 AM PDT

  •  WI-Sen: New Majority PAC ad hitting Thompson (3+ / 0-)

    on the same theme of "Washington Insider".

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 07:11:39 AM PDT

    •  keep hitting that old bag Thompson! (0+ / 0-)

      he's not going to the senate to build seniority Wisconsin! Get that thru your thick skulls, he only going to be one and done!

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 08:12:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI-08: New DCCC ad hitting Duffy. (0+ / 0-)

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 07:12:18 AM PDT

  •  Chris Christie's speech (0+ / 0-)

    The criticism seems to be that he didnt mention Romney that much. Yesterday, I pointed out that Obama didnt really mention Kerry that much in his keynote. Someone responded to me that Obama mentioned "Kerry" 13 times, Christie mentioned "Romney" 7 times.

    To me then, the issue is that even without mentioning Romney, Christie's speech seems to fall short of expectations. Especially since it seemed to contrast with Ann Romney's more positive speech.

    •  I just thought it was bland and forgettable. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, pademocrat, askew

      Admittedly, my attention was waning by then.  I thought Ann sounded the most convincing.  Her speech also touched on what sounded like more common concerns.  Christie talked about going after the teacher's union, which I don't think people outside of the Republican base care much about.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 07:43:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Christie (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32

        I only heard bits and pieces that they played at the end of the recap show, but it sounded like it was intended more to fire up the GOP base than to appeal to swing voters.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 08:08:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The difference in my mind... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      Is there is no way a state senator from Illinois who was just running for the US Senate had any ideas about running for the Presidency any time soon.  Christie is known to have White House aspirations, almost ran this year and will surely run in 2016.  

      An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 08:22:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What made Obama's speech so great (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, itskevin, MBishop1

      was that he is an amazing orator and he tied his story so perfectly into the story of America. It was incredibly inspiring. Christie's speech was just small. It was all about how tough he had it and now he has it tough because he's a Republican in a blue state. It didn't have any bigger themes and it was depressing.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 08:52:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Obama's 2004 speech was timeless. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, askew

        You could sub in a few things, just to adjust for the changed challenges we will face in coming decaes, and probably have someone give it in 2020 but still be appropriate.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 08:55:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  IL-13: DCCC ad hitting Rodney Davis over his (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Purdue219, jj32, askew, DCCyclone

    connections to George Ryan.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 07:17:52 AM PDT

    •  Yet another good ad (0+ / 0-)

      I'm reading "up" in reverse order, I'm very happy with all these ads, this is all good stuff.

      The DCCC is getting it right, as are our candidates.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 10:27:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  There's still uncalled races in Arizona. (0+ / 0-)

    Nobody seemed to pay attention to the Democratic primary in AZ-04 (is it that Republican?), but the race is essentially TIED.

    Johnnie Robinson 8,754   50%
    Mikel Weisser       8,731   50%

    They're separated by 23 VOTES right now.


    AP still hasn't officially said which Democrat will be going up against Rep. David Schweikert in AZ-06, though it looks like Matthew Jette has the slight advantage right now, up 51%-49%.


    And still no call in the GOP primary in AZ-09, though Vernon Parker does have a small lead in a fractured field.

    •  Yes, AZ-04 is THAT Republican (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701, James Allen

      It's the reddest district in Arizona, and it voted 2:1 for McCain. Probably about R+17.

      AZ-06 is the 4th most Republican district, but it's 41% Obama. Still very hard to win.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 07:37:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MO-Sen: New McCaskill ad. (8+ / 0-)

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 07:25:49 AM PDT

    •  I like this ad - exactly what she needs to be (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, DCCyclone

      running right now with the SuperPAC's and NRSC sitting out.  Positive bio ad with policy sprinkled in.  She needs to work on her favorables while largely unopposed on the air.  

      One qualm is how her mother is on medicare and that's why she protects it - sort of makes her stances more self-serving than for the greater good.  

      An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 08:25:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No, "self-serving" in that way is good (0+ / 0-)

        You help yourself by coming off as "self-serving" when it happens to be a popular position that coincidentally is self-serving for almost all the voters!

        A candidate needs to "identify in" with the voters, that's what McCaskill did there, and it works perfectly.

        Great ad, I love it.  And good point that it's particularly effective without any GOP pushback.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 10:26:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  IA-04: Don't know if this was ever posted. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, askew

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 07:29:19 AM PDT

    •  She won't win without going hard negative (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      David Nir, jncca, James Allen

      If she doesn't do it, then the DCCC or House Majority PAC needs to do it.

      Steve King is a treasure trove of inflammatory oppo, I hope these Vilsack ads I've seen so far, which are good in their own right, don't represent a Ron Klein approach to this race.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 10:21:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  and its a race where that's easy without getting (0+ / 0-)

        overly personal.  It's not that there are allegations of King of having affairs or being a child predator or corruption, as we've had cases in years past in other districts.  It's just that the guy is so extreme.  His views are not reasonable for a light red district.

        Romney. Ryan. Wrong.

        by James Allen on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 04:12:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  IL-12: DCCC ad for Enyart. (6+ / 0-)

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 07:31:17 AM PDT

  •  Charles Pierce is a modern Flaubert. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The Caped Composer

     Is there anyone who can better describe what it feels like to watch the RNC? Truly a gifted writer:

    "But the Republican Party did something remarkable at its convention on Tuesday. It set out on an experiment to see exactly how much unmitigated hogwash the American political system can contain on a single evening. The Republican Party has set out at its 2012 convention in search of the Event Horizon of utter bullshit. It has sought to see precisely how many lies, evasions, elisions, and undigestible chunks of utter gobbledegook the political media can swallow before it finally gags twice and falls over dead, leaving the rest of America suckers all the same. What you didn't see in primetime, from Arthur Davis to Ted Cruz, and from one 2016 contender to another, was the GOP embarking upon the task of seeing exactly how much nonsense it could produce at top volume before democracy screams and gives up, like Noriega in Panama when they played the metal music at him."

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 07:44:38 AM PDT

  •  CA-7: Interesting tweets (9+ / 0-)

    From a KCBS political reporter at the convention

    The presidential top line numbers look reasonable.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 08:10:05 AM PDT

    •  CA7 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, bumiputera, DCCyclone

      Obama won it just 51-46 in 08 so this district would be fairly unique (outside of AZ) in that he would be doing better this time around. But if there's one district in the state that he might be likely to improve in, it's this one. Sac's suburbs (as opposed to its exurbs) are trending blue fast as they fill up with nonwhites. CA7 largely overlaps with the old 5th assembly district, which was one of the few districts of any type anywhere to flip from red to blue in 2010. Part of that was due to the GOP running a social conservative zealot to replace a relative moderate who was term-limited out, but the Dems ran a conventional liberal (who, like Bera, is a doctor for what that's worth) and still flipped it.

      This race is probably either pure tossup or tilt D depending on how effectively Bera can hit Lungren over the Ryan plan.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 08:51:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Awesome news. I've been pulling for Bera. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, DCCyclone

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 08:55:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  100% Guaranteed Accurate Senate Predictions (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sacman701, itskevin, equern, DCCyclone

    or DOUBLE your money back.  52D, 48R.

    DEMOCRATIC SEATS

    1. NE – Fischer (R) 59, Kerrey (D) 39
    2. WI – Thompson (R) 51, Baldwin (D) 47
    3. ND – Berg (R) 49, Heitkamp (D) 48
    4. VA – Kaine (D) 50, Allen (R) 48
    5. MT – Tester (D) 50, Rehberg (R) 47
    6. OH – Brown (D) 52, Mandel (R) 46
    7. CT – Murphy (D) 53, McMahon (R) 46
    8. FL – Nelson (D) 53, Mack (R) 46
    9. MO – McCaskill (D) 51, Akin (R) 44
    10. NM – Heinrich (D) 53, Wilson (R) 45
    11. NJ – Menendez (D) 53, Kyrillos (R) 44
    12. MI – Stabenow (D) 55, Hoekstra (R) 43
    13. WA – Cantwell (D) 57, Baumgartner (R) 42
    14. HI – Hirono (D) 58, Lingle (R) 42
    15. CA – Feinstein (D) 60, Emken (R) 40
    16. RI – Whitehouse (D) 60, Hinckley (R) 40
    17. PA – Casey (D) 60, Smith (R) 39
    18. MD – Cardin (D) 60, Bongino (R) 38
    19. WV – Manchin (D) 60, Raese (R) 38
    20. MN – Klobuchar (D) 61, Bills (R) 35
    21. NY – Gillibrand (D) 63, Long (R) 35
    22. DE – Carper (D) 67, Wade (R) 32
    23. VT – Sanders (I) 67, MacGovern (R) 31

    REPUBLICAN SEATS

    1. ME – King (I) 52, Summers (R) 31, Dill (D) 12
    2. MA – Warren (D) 50, Brown (R) 48
    3. IN – Mourdock (R) 48, Donnelly (D) 47
    4. NV – Heller (R) 50, Berkley (D) 48
    5. AZ – Flake (R) 51, Carmona (D) 47
    6. TX – Cruz (R) 56, Sadler (D) 40
    7. MS – Wicker (R) 65, Gore (D) 33
    8. UT – Hatch (R) 66, Howell (D) 29
    9. TN – Corker (R) 67, Clayton (D) 32
    10. WY – Barasso (R) 70, Chestnut (D) 30

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 08:55:34 AM PDT

    •  not bad (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, DCCyclone

      I have the Dems doing a shade better across the board. I think Obama will win VA by more than 2 in the end and that Kaine should run about a point ahead of Obama. I also have Heitkamp, Donnelly, and Berkley all winning narrowly although I'm not so sure about Berkley as she seems to be running poorly among indies.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 09:06:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Picking up seats (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, DCCyclone

        seems too good to be true.  Yet it is not that much of a stretch anymore it seems.  Your scenario would be awesome.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

        by spiderdem on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 09:10:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I sure hope you're right! n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      spiderdem

      What separates us, divides us, and diminishes the human spirit.

      by equern on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 10:01:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  My only major issue... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      spiderdem

      ...with your picks is that I suspect Carmona, sadly, ends up losing much bigger than 51-47.  I think Obama drag will hurt Carmona big with white voters in Arizona, even though the new maps give us happy gains in U.S. House delegation and the state legislature.

      I would quibble much more narrowly with some others, I think Berkley ends up winning and Donnelly I might peg to lose by several points, not a single point.  If I'm right, the Senate ends up a wash, no gains either way, which really is a GOP disaster to gain nothing when all along people were saying they could/should take the chamber outright.

      Overall, excellent realistic work by you.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 10:16:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You may be right about Carmona. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        I had Romney by 7 and thought Carmona would over perform just a bit.  I'm guessing you think Obama will do worse than that, which I fear may be right.

        Glad to hear your view on Berkley.  I hate even the association with ethics trouble, even though it seems like bullshit.  She definitely seems to be doing a good job of fighting it.  She could win especially if Obama carries the state by more than a few points.

        There is a Libertarian in IN who I am hoping will siphon some votes from Mourdock.  That's the only reason I had it so close.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

        by spiderdem on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 10:29:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I now see Obama losing double-digits... (0+ / 0-)

          ...in Arizona.  I think, ironically and to McCain's mild embarrassment, Romney will outperform McCain '08 there.

          There is anti-Obama sentiment among Arizona whites now that didn't exist 4 years ago.  And I think it goes beyond the hard core GOP base there.  They're really gung-ho on the immigration thing, apolitical white voters are always susceptible on an intermittent basis to tribal appeals.

          I could be wrong, I would love for Obama to get into the high 40s and Carmona to outperform that.

          But really I think 45% is a stretch for Obama, I think low 40s is his realistic outcome.

          OFA won't play in the state, that's what Romney's money does, it keeps OFA pinned down in the existing battlegrounds.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 11:03:12 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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