Week 3 of the intrading the Senate.
The goal of this is to follow the changes in the intrade odds as the election comes closer and watch the changes with developments in the campaign
Methodology: I'm only interested in watching the races that are competitive. Many of the races really have no market because one candidate is a prohibitive favorite. I'm also not going to be looking at any race where the normalized probability of one candidate winning is > 80%. Normalized probability means that I'll be the 2 highest candidates and treating them like their probabilities add to 100%.
Ratings changes this week: The only ratings change was to move Nebraska off the board. Fischer (R) has crossed the 80% probability line for 2 consecutive weeks. It will only come back if Kerrey does.
Arizona: Flake (R) leads Carmona (D) leads 63.8 - 36.32. No change from last week. Carmona is hoping for a breakthrough, but it really hasn't happened yet. Republican hold
Connecticut: Congressman Chris Murphy(D) leads Wrestling executive Linda McMahon (R) 67.9 - 32.1. Although a couple of polls have shown McMahon within striking distance, Murphy has opened the gap here by a few points. McMahon has a bottomless cash pit, but isn't making inroads with it. Democratic Hold
Florida: Bill Nelson (D) leads Connie Mack IV (R) 58.5 - 41.5. This race has settled in a rut. Mack hasn't made much of a run yet. Democratic Hold
Indiana: Mourdock (R) leads Donnelly (D) 56.8 - 43.2. No change in the last week. Republican Hold
Massachusetts: Brown(D) leads Warren (D) 64.9 - 35.1. Brown continues to move the needle in this one. After a 19 point gain last week, Brown adds 15 points to his lead this week. This race has the potential of getting out of hand. Maybe the convention speech will help Warren. She needs something. Republican Hold
Michigan: Stabenow(D) leads Hoekstra (R) 74.9 - 25.1. Stabenow isn't having a lot of problems. Democratic Hold
Missouri: McCaskill (D) leads Akin (R) 66.6 - 33.4. Akin's campaign is not catching hold after the legitimate rape comment. Democratic Hold
Montana: Rehlberg(R) leads Tester(D) 61.8 - 38.2. Rehlberg continues to hold a solid lead, but the volume is so light it's hard to tell what's happening. Republican Pickup
Nevada: Heller(R) leads Berkley(D) 64.7 - 35.3. No change this week, Heller still strong. Republican Hold
North Dakota: Berg(R) leads Heitkamp(D) 74.8 - 28.6. Berg still looking strong, extends a few more points this week. Republican Pickup
Ohio: Brown(D) leads Mandel(R) 58.0 - 42.0. Mandel made up some ground last week, but gave it back this week. Democratic Hold
Virginia: Allen(R) leads Kaine(D) 51.6 - 48.4. Kaine makes up lots of ground this week, pulling nearly even. Actually when I looked at this race over the weekend Kaine had pulled ahead, but fell back in the last few days. Republican Pickup
Wisconsin: Thompson(R) leads Baldwin(D) 78.1 - 21.9. Thompson still holding a good lead. Baldwin needs to shake up the race. Republican Pickup
Off the board. Intrade predicts at least an 80% chance of the following results:
California (D Hold)
Delaware (D Hold)
Hawaii (D Hold)
Maine (I Pickup from R)
Maryland (D Hold)
Minnesota (D Hold)
Mississippi (R Hold)
Nebraska (R Pickup)
New Jersey (D Hold)
New Mexico (D Hold)
New York (D Hold)
Pennsylvania (D Hold)
Rhode Island (D Hold)
Tennessee (R Hold)
Texas (R Hold)
Utah (R Hold)
Vermont (I Hold)
Washington (R Hold)
West Virginia (D Hold)
So the current Intrade tally is 5 Republican pickups (Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Virginia, and Wisconsin with an Independent pickup (Maine).
Final Tally (unchanged from last week):
Current Senate: 53 Democrats (including 2 independents) - 47 Republicans
Intrade Senate Prediction for 2013: 51 Republicans - 49 Democrats (including 2 independents).