If you fear such an attack will soon be coming, ThinkProgress has a report that should help ease those fears. This is happy news and it's worth a bit of attention even amid this economy-centered Presidential campaign. Since this report undermines PM Netanyahu's saber-rattling, you'll never hear Mitt Romney mention it.
What the Obama administration has to say about such an attack is much more important. Here is a signal that should put to rest any claim the US is secretly enabling an Israeli attack. ThinkProgress quotes General Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Dempsey — America’s highest ranking military officer — also sought to distance the U.S. from any premature attack, adding, “I don’t want to be complicit if they [Israel] choose to do it.”
(Bolding by Quicklund)
This quote is very important. These words are used with precision. Coming from Gen Dempsey they carry the weight of administration policy. They also indicate the administration wants this policy known publicly and specifically within Iran. And that policy is the US will not assist Israel in attacking Iran.
Periodically there are predictions of such an Israeli attack. We see such a prediction about twice per week here on DKos. PM Netanyahu likes issuing such threats from time to time. This announcement should make it crystal clear that such announcements are nothing more than loud saber rattlings. These announcements are designed to frighten people around the world. These people include American voters - especially American voters. These saber-rattles are intended to frighten you. Do not let them.
Stand firm against the bluff. Israel is not going to attack Iran. Not any time soon, and not at all unless the US attacks too. That is as reliable a prediction as you're likely to see when it comes to the Mideast.
Here's a great video that helps explain why you can afford to be reasonably confident in this regard. I found it hoping to find some maps I could use for a visual aid. I found such a map and a good bit more.
I know nothing about the team that made this video. I find it solid with no obvious logical lapses.
(There is one possible and inconsequential technical error. I believe they mention the wrong weight for Israel's largest 'bunker buster'. The number might not be correct, but their point is. The biggest bomb Israel owns is not big enough to do the required job.)
IMO this video actually understates the risk to Israel, but that is also besides the point. The point is, the chance of a successful solo Israeli attack is very slim.
Now, combined with Gen Dempsey's comments here, we know Slim has left town. The odds of a solo Israeli attack are down to essentially zero. That is because we know the US policy is to avoid culpability.
Israel simply cannot attack Iran without another nation's approval. It cannot be done - at all - unless Israel is allowed to refuel its warplanes while flying over Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey. Go to the 0:32 mark of our handy video to see these three options mapped.
Note how the route over Iraq is the shortest route. Remember that even the shortest route will require mid-air refuling. This makes the shortest route by far the only viable route. A second factor cinches it.
Saudi Arabia has an excellent airforce, including F-15 fighters and AWACS early-warning planes.
Turkey has an excellent airforce with its own early-warning aircraft. The backbone is the F-16 fighter right now, but Turkey is a production partner in the modern F-35 program. Turkey is a NATO member and her own military is backed by NATO assets - and this includes the US of course.
Iraq has no functional air force at all. Close reading of the quick-reference Wiki list shows only helicopeters, trainers, and some transport aircraft. From Defense Industry Daily:
Iraq’s purchase of armed scout helicopters was significant, because an Air Force that had once been one of the strongest in the region is currently reduced to few dozen planes and helicopters, with no front-line fighters, or attack helicopters with precision munitions.
(
Bolding by Quicklund.)
That is right. At this moment there are no fighter aircraft in the entire Iraqi Air Force. The plan right now it to purchase 18 F-16 fighters with delivery expected in Nov 2014. From the US Air Force web site we see the Iraqi F-16 pilots are just now about to enter flight school.
9/1/2012 - TUCSON, Ariz. (AFNS) -- While the Republic of Iraq anticipates an initial delivery of F-16 Fighting Falcons in September 2014, the pilots who will fly them embark on a historic partnership with the Arizona Air National Guard's 162nd Fighter Wing here to learn how to fly the multipurpose fighter.
The shortest route is also the only uncovered route - at least it is once past Jordan. We will err on the side of danger, and assume the Israelis would be able to avoid the Jordanian
air force and
air defenses.
This is plausible, as the entire Israeli Air Force would be available to subdue Jordanian defenses while the strike force flies on towards Iran. Regardless of the politics of such an attack, we have to assume it is possible to perform.
At this point in time it might seem like this proves Israel could manage such an attack. If Israel can get past Jordan, there is no Iraqi Air Force to stop them, right?
That is right, but we now return to General Dempsey's remarks. “I don’t want to be complicit if they [Israel] choose to do it.” This is key because if Israel if Israel overflies Iraq in order to attack Iran, then the USA will be complicit in that attack. From the US Department of State web site we find a copy of the Strategic Framework Agreement signed with Iraq in 2009.
Section I Item 4. The United States shall not use Iraqi land, sea, and air as a launching or transit point for attacks against other countries; nor seek or request permanent bases or a permanent military presence in Iraq.
(
Bolding by Quicklund.)
I am no international lawyer, so I will leave it to them to decide if the USA would be legally responsible for Israel using Iraqi airspace as a transition point for an attack on Iran. (This sentence is confusing enough.) But I am enough of a poker player to know how Iran would consider that attack. Iran would consider the US complicit in such an attack. And they could point to this document in the UN Assembly to back such a claim.
We now know it is President Obama's policy that the USA not be held complicit in any Israeli attack. We now know Israel's ability to attack is slim, but it is zero without American complicity. No matter how many diplomats say "all options are on the table", right now the signals all say there will be no attack on Iran is in the forseeable future. One day these signals might change, but today they signal "no attack".
Information is power. The next time Bibi Netanyahu rattles the Israeli saber, do not let that startle you. In doing so you deny the alarmists their victory.
EDIT: Additional clarification reproduced from comments:
The diplomatic implications alone are staggering. But as that part has been open to varied interpretations in discussion here, I tried here to focus on a couple more tangible aspects.
* Fuel and available aircraft severely limit Israel, despite pilot skill and tactics.
* It is impossible for Israel to attack without the USA being involved in the eyes of diplomats, generals, and the world in general.
The "Israel alone" claim should be rejected immediately every time.
Since America is on record against complicity, this is a public refutation of any Israel-plus-secret-US-support scenarios.
So no attack by Israel, with or without US support, should be considered likely in the foreseeable future.