With the exception of last night's voice vote, the Democratic convention has been a solid plus in the battle to re-elect President Obama. I've anxiously been awaiting some sign of a bump in the President's numbers and at 1pm today, I got my wish.
Gallup hasn't been the most friendly pollster for the President, but unlike Rasmussen, I feel like I can trust them to not pull numbers out of thin air. There are two daily tracking polls worth paying attention to from Gallup. We have all been paying close attention to the horserace numbers where Obama leads Romney 47/46. The horserace numbers are arrived at by a 7 day rolling average. A 47/46 race today only includes 2 nights or 2/7ths of convention watchers. Only a small subset of the voting population watches the conventions. Effects don't necessarily occur immediately. You have to wait until opinion leaders have spread the gospel and that can take some time. Gallup has had Obama over Romney by one for the entire Republican convention, the time in between and to this day.
Then I noticed some numbers that are very interesting. Gallup also measures the President's approval rating, but this a three day rolling average. From 9/1--->9/3 Obama was upside down at 45/48. From 9/2--->9/4 Obama was even at 47/47. Here's the really good news. From 9/3--->9/5 Obama was rightside up at 49/45. The President has moved from -3 to +4 in just two days. That's a seven point swing. A good speech tonight and good job numbers Friday morning and this race could be effectively over. I wonder how much longer the Koch brothers are going to be willing to throw good money after bad?