I don't want to say this, and you don't want to hear it, but the fun part is now over: The convention achieved something worth celebrating - we have made it unlikely that Mitt Romney can win legitimately. But folks, in the Republican estimation, legitimacy and four bucks will buy you a cup of coffee. We are now flying without a net, and entering a phase where the relevance of the Romney campaign itself is eclipsed by the moneyed interests who back him via SuperPACs: Where, in other words, the weaknesses in Mitt Romney we have been exploiting thus far take a back seat to the overwhelming resources and ruthless acumen of the people he serves. We have the best possible candidate and a diamond-hard unified Party the likes of which hasn't been seen in generations, but the struggle will be grim, people - and we should prepare without fear to fight bitterly, even as we hope and work for the best.
The bottomless resources of every corrupt business interest, private oligarch, and hostile foreign government around the world who wants to see Mitt Romney in the White House will now be unleashed in the US media in ways both grotesque and subtle to poison and confuse the electorate. The "news" media bias we have seen thus far, as egregious as it already is, will reach a crescendo of ludicrous propaganda and lies that has not been seen since the lead-up to the invasion of Iraq, and we must understand and deal with the fact that some of it will have an impact - an impact that will be touted nine ways from Sunday by this media as proof that "Obama is doomed," that his campaign is "floundering," and so on and so forth.
And unlike the disorganized cacophany of the McCain campaign that made such messaging easy to dismiss in 2008, these messages will be coordinated and honed to a level of intense precision and guided by the most advanced methodology the marketing profession has to offer. They will immerse the American electorate in an Orwellian alternate universe where, by sheer ubiquity and repetition, the nonsense they generate appears to have the force of authority while the facts cited to rebut them sound like a besieged minority opinion. Most of the propaganda will fail, but will occur in such volume and from so many directions that the failures merely flesh out the shape of the few attacks that stick. Among the "new reality" they will create are legions of fabricated polls under a vast array of different names showing what they want, which will skew aggregate polling and reinforce their claims, probably leading to a small amount of real movement just by self-fulfilling prophecy.
But by now they know, as we know, that this is very likely not enough to put Romney into the White House. Their test runs with more limited propaganda campaigns were disappointing, though not always without some small advantage to them. And yet this is not nearly as devastating a blow to them as we wish it were: Folks, Republicans rig elections. They do it whenever they want it bad enough and have the people in place in state government to make it possible - when they are not willing to leave an outcome to chance, and have the option of a guarantee. As far as I've been able to find, in the last two decades, major discrepancies between unadjusted exit polling and official outcomes have always favored Republicans. Always. I have not been able to find a single instance in this generation where a Democrat won like that in a federal election or statewide office.
A lot has been made of the fact that pro-Romney / anti-Obama ads are being pulled out of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, and we would obviously love to believe that they're conceding these states. But a more ominous interpretation presents itself and must be taken seriously: The organizations coordinating the overall ad campaign may simply feel secure that these states (or at least one of them) will be in Romney's column on election day, and intend to front-load any additional spending closer to November. Wisconsin in particular gives me pause, given the outrageous and laughable official results of the recall election in June.
We need to be fully prepared that this kind of thing will most likely happen again, possibly in several states, and not follow the historical pattern of being shocked witless by the brazenness of Republicans or the complicity of the media. We must assume that they intend to rig this election and plan accordingly, because frankly all signs thus far point in that direction - not only overt tactics of voter suppression and the mundane dirty tricks that always attend Republican politics, but fundamental fraud at the level of the vote-counting process.
Most of us had grown complacent due to the 2008 landslide, thinking that our fears of Republican election fraud were exaggerated, but they were not: The interests who drive Republican politics hedged on 2008, recognizing the problems the next administration would inherit and the strategic advantages of temporarily conceding the field. That doesn't mean they weren't playing at all, but they were hardly bringing their full game to the table. Organizations built around serving wealth are infinitely patient because their aggregate resources are inexhaustible and their servants professional, unlike the citizenry who have no choice but to be driven by the "fierce urgency of now" in defense of life, livelihood, and liberty.
The super-wealthy and their modestly wealthy professional servants can yawn and allow an election cycle to pass them by - they're rich, and the difference between Democratic and Republican administrations to them is simply the size of a number on their bank statements: A number whose fluctuations have zero impact on their lifestyle or future prospects. But the machinery built to serve them is relentless, patient, and never misses an opportunity to advance their interests at whatever cost to the nation or the world.
Still, we must not fall into the trap of seeing the GOP as a formless, omnipotent enemy because they can defraud elections - that way lies the self-fulfilling prophecy of defeatism. Nor, however, can we any longer pretend that there is some magic level of enthusiasm and moral justice that can deter or overcome outright election theft if the other side makes the decision to try: Just as their propaganda is not enough to get them the White House, the strength of our President and the superb quality of our campaign is not enough to overcome them if they choose to take the next step - as they seem poised to do. We must expect it, if we are to survive it happening and be able to maintain a united front against it rather than being thrown into instant despair and disarray.
That is what I mean by flying without a net: We must be prepared for the institutions that form our sense of political security to fail us utterly, and yet remain focused and undaunted - no matter how frightening the situation is, how insecure or foolish we are led to feel by the Republican media organs, or how attractive it would be to just utter a few bitter words of self-fulfilling Apocalypse (e.g., "American democracy is dead!") and then go back to sleep. So here is a scenario that I want you to read carefully, imagine vividly, and think deeply about, and I want you to be aware - not afraid, AWARE - that it is a significant possibility:
As described earlier, the US will soon be inundated with a full-spectrum, integrated propaganda onslaught that makes every information medium a window into an alternate universe - as if past, present, and future have been magically erased and replaced with the messages that are convenient for Mitt Romney's fellow oligarchs. It will not only be a blitzkrieg of outright lies, but an ocean of false premises, loaded questions, innuendo, fallacies, and alternate history permeating every corner of the media - similar to what we saw in the lead-up to the Iraq War, only much worse.
The entire for-profit media will be beating as a single heart with the message that Obama is doomed, that every 100% true thing he says is false or dubious, that the most morally upright actions are suspect, that Romney is ascendent, that Americans are abandoning Obama, etc. etc. As this happens, weak, foolish people among us will believe them and unwittingly perpetuate these memes with pointless hand-wringing, whining about how gullible and easily duped Americans are, or wasting their time "debunking" the inexhaustible supply of such propaganda instead of trying to shatter it at the source with more powerful memes of our own. The fake polls they generate, the aggregate polls corrupted by the fake ones, and the real polls showing real movement due to the propaganda will all contribute to this sense of doom.
But we have to accept something painful: The Republican Party will not leave an election like this up to persuasion, however mendacious. They will not accept uncertainty if they can do otherwise - not in this election: They hedged in 2008 because the strategic picture was inconvenient, but now we will feel the full force of the elite global financial empire they serve - now we experience what it means to be standing directly in the path of overwhelming power when it chooses to assert what it considers its inherent right to rule. All of the sturm und drang of their propaganda is merely a foundation to confuse, occupy, and disrupt - to create an atmosphere whereby people would be more amenable to accepting a fraudulent result.
The real election, as far as they are concerned, will be determined in the orders of Republican state officials to purge voters, withhold resources from polling precincts in Democratic areas, and obstruct and misdirect people trying to vote; and beyond that, where they deem it worthwhile, in the opaque programming of voting machines, vote-counting machines, and the computers that tabulate and report the results. I want you to imagine seeing the electoral map go horribly wrong on whatever TV channel or website you're watching, as swing states with Republicans in control of the state election apparatus fall into Romney's column with anomalous regularity while those with Democrats in control break more in keeping with the available data. The exit polling is significantly different from the official outcome in these Romney swing states, but that is soon "fixed" as the polling organizations "adjust" their results to reflect what is officially reported.
As painful as it is, now imagine vividly whoever you're likely to be watching declaring Mitt Romney the winner. Imagine the check mark next to his name on the graphic, with a video window beside it showing Romney jubilant and his audience of all white millionaires cheering. Imagine the sick feeling in your guts, the horror and revulsion, and the despair as the pundits do their usual thing and gloat over how "America has spoken" in favor of Mitt Romney and right-wing conservatism. Imagine their smarmy remarks about how "Expectations had been high after the Democratic convention, but they failed to convince the American people."
This is where the scenario diverges - a point of decision occurs, leading down two roads, neither of which is very attractive, but only one of which leads to a place where the survival of American democracy is even possible: The first option, which we already experienced in 2000 and 2004, as well as on the state level in the Wisconsin recall, is just to surrender because our mere enthusiasm wasn't powerful enough to overcome the reality of corrupted institutions. This is the preferred choice of people who were never serious to begin with, and who feel that as soon as the stakes are more than an amicable contest of ideas or styles, the whole thing is just too scary.
There are people even among us who, in their heart of hearts, consider democracy optional, and retreat from the field when the universe no longer hands it to them on a silver platter. Others would be furious, but feeling powerless to do anything about it, would finally give in to exhaustion and console themselves with some rationalization that "we'll do better next time." It is not the vileness of would-be tyrants or the corruption of institutions per se that causes republics to fall, but the moment when the guardians of republic among the people finally lose their conviction - when the moment comes to stand up, and they either do not see it or are too afraid to take it. That is when republic dies: Not when it is attacked, but when the attack goes unanswered.
And that brings me to the other road - the one less traveled, with a murkier future (whereas the future of the first is as predictable as death). On this dim path, we could decide that allowing such a thing to pass is more dangerous and more frightening than continuing to fight. We could demand that our candidates refuse to concede if there are indicators of fraud, hold fast to our convictions, fight through the courts as far as necessary, and if we find upon further investigation that the election was indeed fraudulent, remain firm even if the courts ultimately prove corrupt. We could decide that the security of obeying the decisions of institutional authorities that had been completely subverted is no longer an option if the rule of law is to survive at all.
What exactly that means is unknowable right now and would be unclear even then, but the choice would be between setting forth into uncharted territory with no net beneath us or simply agreeing to the end of American democracy in exchange for the security of surrender to a fate made inevitable only by our embrace of it. As grim as this sounds, we need to be aware that coming to this point of decision is a major possibility in this election - perhaps even the most likely one, although no one can claim to know all the angles - so you need to have the above scenario and your best possible reaction to it stored somewhere in your mind, in a glass case with the words "Break Open in Case of Coup" written on it. If this scenario unfolds, we cannot afford to be demoralized or have our strength and resolve instantly obliterated - it must be a scenario we each of us keep in mind, are emotionally prepared to deal with, and are able to put coordinated plans into action quickly.
Now, obviously we would be better off preparing to prevent such a thing than having to deal with it once it has already occurred, so really the level of preparation must be continuous: If you are a pollworker, think about creative ways you personally can ensure the integrity of the election. If possible, take photographs of the ballots you process - they don't have names on them, so the secret ballot is secure, but they may have identifying numbers that can be compared with how a machine tallied the vote even if state Republican officials destroy the physical ballots. Even if it is not practical for every pollworker to photograph every ballot, if some are able to photograph some ballots, that would create data for statistical analysis that could prove crucial in investigating the integrity of elections on every level - at individual stations, precincts, states, and nationwide. Unless there is an explicit law prohibiting it, ignore any arbitrary policy or command from Republican state officials that would prevent you from doing this if you otherwise intended to.
Learn the methods of international election monitors. Although they will not be participating in our election, since they require mutual consent to be involved - which obviously Republicans will never grant - their knowledge about recognizing irregularities and fraudulent patterns in official results will be necessary from now on. We must also build on that knowledge, because our goal is not merely to determine whether an election is legitimate, but to ensure that it is on a moment-to-moment basis against surprise tactics in the limited time available for an election to occur. And we the Democratic base must be prepared to declare, on the day before the election, which states and areas within states we deem to have a thoroughly verifiable system likely to produce legitimate results, and which are vulnerable to tampering. We must be intensely focused on those vulnerable areas to detect any anomalous pattern as it happens, and respond instantly with inquiries, analyses, and legal challenges if deemed appropriate.
The benefit of these preparations is that even if they were not enough to prevent a fraudulent result, we would have a mountain of evidence accumulated to present to the American people and to the courts over the following days - evidence that would likely grow in both size and clarity as our focus intensified. If there is enough evidence, there is a significant chance that at least one if not two of the Republican Supreme Court Justices would find against Mitt Romney rather than fly directly in the face of overwhelming evidence and a unified, highly energized opposition. Remember, the elite interests behind Romney are patient and cautious, and if they decided that moving forward on a given plan would endanger the overall progress of their agenda, they would wait a little longer to take the White House. This would not be like 2000, with an ambiguous result and an apathetic electorate - we are serious this time, and the only way they can get past us is if we don't have the evidence.
This is not an exaggeration, or a fear-driven rant, or a slanderous attack on Republicans driven by rage - it's just the reality of what they have become at this point: As far as the owners of the Republican Party are concerned, the election has already been decided. As long as we acknowledge that, accept the reality of what may happen, and be prepared to face it quickly and courageously, then we can come out the other side an intact nation made stronger by dealing with problems that would shatter the faith and demolish the spirit of weaker citizens. So if you truly value this country, do not hide from your fears: To paraphrase a famous literary device, face your fears, let them pass through you, and you will find that all that remains is you, unafraid. Do not be puppeteered by events: Expect neither victory nor defeat - expect only what happens, and move fluidly and intelligently to ensure that whatever happens next is your decision.
If am wrong about all of this, my concerns exaggerated, or my perception of Republican resources overestimated, then we lose nothing having prepared against an enemy far stronger and more ruthless than the one we actually face. But to underestimate them and twiddle our thumbs is to be utterly shattered when our expectations meet the reality of their ruthlessness - to be struck dumb and helpless, running around like chickens with our heads cut off only to finally collapse dead. We must stick together at all costs; remain focused and determined at all costs; and do not accept any reported result as official that we have not determined convincingly to have been legitimate.
This is the reality of the crossroads we are approaching, whether in this election or some other someday soon, and we must choose now whether we will meet it with courage when we come to it or just fall apart. We must choose whether to admit the two most dangerous and depressing things: That the problem is so huge, and that we nonetheless have the power to overcome it if we can abandon the comfort of institutional inertia for the insecurity of freedom no longer guaranteed by past sacrifices. The weak and fragile would hide from the first, pretending we had simply lost an election fair and square, and the weak and bitter would hide from the latter in cynical abandonment of hope, pretending they had no choice in the matter. But we can choose to be citizens, eternally free by our very existence, and those Stygian creatures who would enslave us and destroy our republic would be educated in the fact that we are beyond their comprehension.