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A variety of news stories, including this piece at Talking Points Memo, describe how the Romney camp is going forward with 15 new ads in 8 battleground states.

By now we know that the Republicans have pulled their advertising out of PA and MI.  It is interesting that this buy does not include WI and its 10 electoral votes.

Let's presume for a moment that the Romney camp has given up on those 3 three states.

The states in which they are competing (with current electoral votes in parentheses) are as follows:

CO (9), NV (6), IA (6), FL (29), OH (18), NC (15), VA (13), NH (4).  

Those 8 states total 100 electoral votes.

In 2008 Obama won 365 electoral votes.  The states he won now have 359 electoral votes.

Obama will not carry IN with its 11 electoral votes, nor is he expected to carry the 2nd Congressional District in NE this time.  Removing those 12 votes the baseline electoral vote count for Obama is 347.

In other words, if Obama wins all 8 states in which Romney is targeting his ads, he will still win 347 electoral votes.

If Romney were to carry all 8, he would have 291 electoral votes to Obama's 247.

In other words, Romney has a much narrower path to the 270 electoral votes necessary for election.

He can lose only 21 of those 100 contested electoral votes.

If he loses FL, the election is over.

If he loses OH and any other state, the election is over -  and remember, internal Obama polls showed a 9 point margin BEFORE the Democratic convention

If he loses VA and CO the election is over.

If he loses CO, IA & NV the election would be tied 269-269.

You can run other scenarios on your own.

The state of the race, as demonstrated by Romney's advertising, indicates a landscape far more favorable to Obama than to Romney.  

Yes, there will be hundreds of millions in ads dumped into those 8 states.  Living as I do in Virginia I have already been seeing that.  But at some point the advertising gets ignored because people begin mentally to turn it off.

I will be interested to see where the Obama campaign targets its advertising, even as I know their field organization remains superior in states like Virginia and Ohio.  

What do you think?

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (139+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Micheline, Jimdotz, followyourbliss, nannyboz, bear83, Texdude50, Emerson, gulfgal98, pollwatcher, Supavash, Old Jay, TampaCPA, Oothoon, TomP, ardyess, retLT, tbounnak, Voter123, Egalitare, marabout40, Andrew F Cockburn, rja, palantir, spooks51, mattc129, pamelabrown, turn Virginia blue, Berkeley Fred, bronte17, Nag, JTinDC, mali muso, surfbird007, billlaurelMD, StonyB, KJG52, FlyingToaster, kharma, Xapulin, BasharH, MKHector, celdd, RFK Lives, OrangeMike, Mother Mags, MarciaJ720, MKinTN, global citizen, mkfarkus, petesmom, blue aardvark, bearette, Its a New Day, Dretutz, WoodlandsPerson, Cincinnatus53, willynel, ZoBai, TheGreatLeapForward, zerelda, MsGrin, dmhlt 66, hyperstation, frsbdg, LSmith, on board 47, smartdemmg, TX Freethinker, jennylind, tidalwave1, madgranny, a2nite, Sun Tzu, Anima, TruthFreedomKindness, buckeyemike, shypuffadder, JekyllnHyde, Eric Twocents, RagingGurrl, anyname, itskevin, Mimikatz, Loudoun County Dem, susan in sc, tin woodswoman, science nerd, Quantumlogic, psilocynic, Crashing Vor, yawnimawke, camlbacker, petulans, buckstop, kevinpdx, JBL55, mconvente, cybersaur, congenitalefty, jgnyc, JeffW, ericlewis0, be the change you seek, Akonitum, TexDem, Davui, Blu Gal in DE, deep, bronxcharlie, millwood, MikePhoenix, defluxion10, Carol in San Antonio, Ekaterin, lonespark, Railfan, Vicky, Kinak, Zacapoet, VA Breeze, OhioNatureMom, CocoaLove, litigatormom, steamed rice, countwebb, Cederico, elwior, DianeNYS, Statusquomustgo, cpresley, Clyde the Cat, chimene, sostos, jamfan, blackjackal, mikeconwell, dotdash2u, rapala, Bob Duck

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 04:59:06 AM PDT

  •  Thank you for your clear and calm tone. (22+ / 0-)

    Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives. John Stuart Mill

    by Micheline on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 05:01:55 AM PDT

  •  Good analysis... one gentle nudge about a typo... (13+ / 0-)

    mid- diary you wrote 170 electoral votes as opposed to 270.

    Andy's two-timin' tail run off wiff mah sig line!

    by nannyboz on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 05:08:41 AM PDT

    •  thanks will fix eom (6+ / 0-)

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 05:15:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Similarly 347/247 eom (0+ / 0-)

        Oh, and you started off with a "goign"

        And there's a bit of broccoli, perhaps spinach, on your collar...

        “The right of the people peaceably to assemble, to consult for the common good, and to petition the government, or any department thereof, shall never be abridged.”

        by Marko the Werelynx on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 05:36:40 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  So much for my "eom" (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          hyperstation, elwior

          I just don't know when to shut up.

          “The right of the people peaceably to assemble, to consult for the common good, and to petition the government, or any department thereof, shall never be abridged.”

          by Marko the Werelynx on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 05:37:37 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  okay, I will go back and check (4+ / 0-)

          especially now that this is on Rec list

          "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

          by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 05:46:20 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  no on te 347/247 (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Marko the Werelynx, elwior

          347 is what Obama would have if he carried everything he carried in '08 except IN and the 2nd CD in NE

          247 is what he would have should Romney win all 8 states in which he has just made advertising buys

          "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

          by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 05:50:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  See? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            elwior

            There's no end to my confusion!

            It's the damned arithmetic again isn't it?

            “The right of the people peaceably to assemble, to consult for the common good, and to petition the government, or any department thereof, shall never be abridged.”

            by Marko the Werelynx on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 05:53:56 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Another way to say it: 247-191 O-R (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            mconvente, elwior

            Assuming the only states that are likely to flip are these 8, Obama wins if he gets FL, even if he loses the other 7!

            If OH is in the bag for us, we only need 5 more EVs, so any one of the other states except NH also seals the deal.

            OH + NH only = 269, yikes!

            If we concentrate on the big 4, FL, OH, NC, VA, even if Rmoney wins all 4, if he loses the other 4 he loses. He needs those 4 + one other.

            But the keystone is FL. Everyone in FL or nearby, do your best!

            •  A reminder please... What happens in a tie? nt (0+ / 0-)

              "We see things not as they are, but as we are." - John Milton

              by Jasonhouse on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:29:51 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  bad news (3+ / 0-)

                In the event of a tie in the electoral college, the House of Representatives chooses the president.

                •  Yeah, that's what I thought. Thanks. (0+ / 0-)

                  I was pretty sure that's where it goes, just wanted to know for sure.

                  Thank you!

                  "We see things not as they are, but as we are." - John Milton

                  by Jasonhouse on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:57:17 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  maybe (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  elwior, chimene

                  each state gets 1 vote

                  you must win a majority of the states

                  if a states reps split, eg, 1-1, that state does not cast a vote.

                  Thus it is possible that no candidate gets elected by the House..

                  The Senate votes on VP

                  each Senator gets 1 vote

                  winning a majority of the Senate elects the VP

                  in theory, sitting VP can vote in case of a tie.

                  Thus as long as Senate is 50-50 Biden can break a tie for himself

                  if there is no president elected, the VP gets sworn in as VP then given the vacancy in the Presidency gets sworn in as President

                  so you need to look not at totals in the H but at state delegation majorities after the election

                  "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

                  by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:12:08 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  We would lose in the House... (0+ / 0-)

                    The one vote per state kills us because so many Dems live in states with large populations.

                    •  you do not yet know that (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      engine17

                      because we also hold control in some small states -   VT, DE for example and we may well control NH after this electon

                      you would have to see how this cycle plays out, given the particular H seats that are in play

                      Remember that Republicans have a large advantage right now in FL, but that only gives them one vote.

                      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

                      by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:05:14 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

  •  This is exactly why (36+ / 0-)

    I do not pay attention to the total popular vote.  The electoral college is what is important.  While not impossible, the path to victory for Romney is almost the equivalent of pulling off an inside straight or maybe a straight flush.  Very difficult.  Not only that, but Romney will have to win several states in which he has never led during the polling to reach his magical 270.  I would LOVE to see my home state of Florida deliver the decisive victory for the President!

    "Growing up is for those who don't have the guts not to. Grow wise, grow loving, grow compassionate, but why grow up?" - Fiddlegirl

    by gulfgal98 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 05:20:00 AM PDT

    •  Nate S currently gives Obama 63% chance here (9+ / 0-)

      in FL.  I'm not sure how R&R move it back in their direction.  I know that voucherizing Medicare is a very tough sell here, and Ryan's past positions on SS are an equally tough sell.

      Coolidge was the last GOP POTUS to take office w/o being credited w/ FL's electoral votes.   R&R aren't taking office next year w/o being credited w/ them, and they're facing an uphill battle at best here right now.

      Some men see things as they are and ask why. I dream of things that never were and ask why not?

      by RFK Lives on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:33:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  lose even if winning FL if losing VA & OH & NH eom (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gulfgal98

        "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

        by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:34:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Obama isn't going to lose VA. (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Kinak, gulfgal98, elwior, where4art

          Too many Ron Paul supporters there, and too many alternatives on the ballot for them.

          "We see things not as they are, but as we are." - John Milton

          by Jasonhouse on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:33:23 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Do you think Goode delivers VA to Obama? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Kinak, gulfgal98, elwior

          He's polled anywhere from 4-9%, but realistically, do you think he can crack 1.5% or so and make the state impossible for Romney?

          (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

          by TrueBlueDem on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:42:12 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  the answer is I do (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            mconvente, TrueBlueDem, gulfgal98, elwior

            because he had over 150K in his federal account that he did not spend in '08 when he lost narrowly to Perriello.  He has nothing else to spend it on, and spent strategically along with whatever else he can raise he can easily get his numbers up.  Remember, he is pretty well known in some parts of VA

            and even 1% net from Romney's hide might well be enough to guarantee he cannot win the state

            "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

            by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:13:51 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm curious to see if Richmond area Obama ads help (0+ / 0-)

              in North Carolina. There's kind of an extra bang I'd think to ads there, helps bag Virginia--an easier win--but maybe keep NC.

              Resist much, obey little. ~~Edward Abbey, via Walt Whitman

              by willyr on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:11:20 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  IMHO, (0+ / 0-)

          Ohio is the key state.  I simply do not see how Romney can win the electoral vote without Ohio.  I am liking our chances very much in both Virginia and Ohio.

          "Growing up is for those who don't have the guts not to. Grow wise, grow loving, grow compassionate, but why grow up?" - Fiddlegirl

          by gulfgal98 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:56:36 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  One nice thing about living abroad... (20+ / 0-)

    Although I wish I could be on the ground, I'm sooo glad I don't have to watch these damn ads!

  •  Wisconsin (18+ / 0-)

    We know that Citizens United, which theoretically prevents coordination between campaigns and dark money donors, will not be effective in preventing that coordination.  Candidates can pimp themselves; dark money can only tear down the other side.  I think the ad buys show where Mitt Romney intends to run affirmatively, rather than run exclusively on tearing Obama down.  It's about strategy rather than prioritization.  Where the entire campaign can be run on lies and rhetorical assaults against the President, they will use dark money.  

    Romney will still compete in WI and he may win there.  I think they counting on massive ads from dark money intended to drive down Obama's positives and de-motivate Obama voters.  They are also counting on Paul Ryan.  But they are not pulling out of Wisconsin.

    So I wouldn't read too much into ad buys except when the dark money pulls out too... in states that truly appear to be out of reach. Currently PA and MI fit into that category, thanks to the auto industry recovery.

    “If the misery of the poor be caused not by the laws of nature, but by our institutions, great is our sin.” Charles Darwin

    by ivorybill on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 05:24:12 AM PDT

    •  I think they overestimate Ryan's WI impact (22+ / 0-)

      remember, he has never run statewide

      a VP candidate does not guarantee you will carry his home state

      and while lots of dark money is going to go into all these states, remember that Citizens United unleashed the unions, and they will be very active in WI - as well as in OH and a few other states.

      Ryan also has to watch his backside as Rob Zervan is running a very aggressive Congressional race against him.

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 05:26:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  My main point was (7+ / 0-)

        that it's hard to read much into the fact that the Romney campaign didn't buy airtime in Wisconsin.

        With respect to Ryan, it's true that he's not won statewide.  It's also true that the GOP in Wisconsin is quite well organized and the state has been voting more conservative in recent elections. I lived in WI for years follow WI politics pretty close - Obama can win there, and probably will.  But the state is just not the same as in 2008. Our side, including he unions, organized hard for the recall election and in opposition to Scott Walker.  That organization helps us. Their side also mobilized quite successfully, and in the last cycle as well as during the recall election, the state was flooded by dark money.  Ryan and Walker have been close associates - they act alike, talk alike, even look alike. Walker and his political operation will pull out all the stops in Wisconsin and really pimp Ryan in this election, far more than would be normal for a VP candidate.

        Now I'm not trying to dampen enthusiasm.  We can and probably will win Wisconsin.  But the Romney campaign will absolutely not give up in Wisconsin, and the role of Ryan/Walker and dark campaign funders like the Kochs makes Wisconsin a bit unique.  It's not easy to apply generalities regarding how VP candidates play out in this very specific race.

        “If the misery of the poor be caused not by the laws of nature, but by our institutions, great is our sin.” Charles Darwin

        by ivorybill on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:00:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  How aweseome would it be to kick Lyin's ass out (9+ / 0-)

        of congress. It's acheivable. He's been pulling the wool over his constituents eyes for a long time. I'm sure Zervan is happy to point that out.

        Ds see human suffering and wonder what they can do to relieve it. Rs see human suffering and wonder how they can profit from it.

        by JTinDC on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:17:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  That's true (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JeffW, lonespark, Kinak, elwior

        2004 - John Edwards. Did not win NC for Kerry.
        1996 - Jack Kemp. Did not win NY for Dole.
        1988 - Lloyd Bentsen. Did not win TX for Dukakis.
        1984 - Geraldine Ferraro. Did not win NY for Mondale.
        1972 - Sargent Shriver. Did not win MD for McGovern.
        1964 - William Miller. Did not win NY for Goldwater.

        "Valerie, why am I getting all these emails calling me a classless boor?"

        by TLS66 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:05:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  VP not winning states (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Cederico, elwior

          I'd add a few to that list:

          2008   Biden.   Obama would have won Delaware without him.
          2008.  Palin.   McCain would have won Alaska without her.
          2000 and 2004 Cheney.   Bush would have won Wyoming/Texas without him.
          2000   Liberman.   Gore would have won CT anyway.

          I don't think Gore made a difference in TN for Clinton, or Quayle in IN for Bush I, or Stockdale in wherever he was from for Perot, etc.
          etc.

          Not disputing what you listed at all, just having a hard time finding any cases in recent history where the VP made a difference in his/her home state result for the ticket.

          •  Gore possibly made a difference in (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ManhattanMan

            Clinton's '96 race.  TN was won by only 2 points back then.

            "Valerie, why am I getting all these emails calling me a classless boor?"

            by TLS66 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:15:26 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Gore in 96 (0+ / 0-)

              Possibly.   Not sure that Gore made the difference there (after all, Gore didn't win TN for the 2000 ticket) but I guess I agree that it's plausible that he did in 96.   But that's a pretty weak evidence to suggest Ryan is going to hand WI to Romney.

              Let's face it, that's not why Romney picked Ryan anyway.   The Wall Street Journal told him to.  That's why.

  •  I think state by state is important... (6+ / 0-)

    but the National PV should not be ignored.  I'm always worried about an "event" that no one saw coming that could turn everything on its head.  But I guess there's nothing anyone can do about that.

    We need to work to make sure it's not close enough for the GOP to steal (again).

    In an insane society, the sane man would appear insane

    by TampaCPA on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 05:27:13 AM PDT

    •  Only a national shift can save Rmoney (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      a2nite, mconvente, lonespark

      assuming President Obama ranges from tied to a nontrivial lead in all these states, I don't think a state-by-state effort will be enough for the GOP; Rmoney has to do something that will shift a uniform 2-4% of the electorate to his side, which will then translate into flipping many of these states.

      Just released: 96,000 jobs, 8.1% unemployment. Unfortunately that's not a positive for us, but it's survivable. Now it's all about the debates - that's Rmoney's last chance to move the country to his side.

    •  And voter suppression might (6+ / 0-)

      throw these numbers off, too. Don't underestimate the effort the rethugs have put and will be putting into denying eligible voters a ballot. It doesn't matter how a State is polling for the President; it matters whether those who say they want to vote for him will be allowed to.

  •  very good analysis. (14+ / 0-)

    Add the Big Dog will be campaigning next week (I think Ohio and Va.)  and Romney is in trouble.  The one two punch of Barrack and Bill will overcome Mitt 's money.  

    I'm from the Elizabeth Warren Wing of the Democratic Party!

    by TomP on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 05:33:39 AM PDT

    •  Big Dog (13+ / 0-)

      I'm thinking that right about now Mitt wished he had strung up Clinton to his car and drove him to Canada instead of Seamus.

      Personally I'd love to see the Big Dog in states like Indiana, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Montana and Missouri.  Not only to maybe make those states competitive and force the GOP further into defense but also to help shore up Donnelly, Baldwin, Heitkamp, Tester and McCaskill.  The reality is Obama and the Dems have RMoney and the GOP on the run.  They're slowly retreating and in utter disarray.  Now is the time to push forward, move deeper into their territory, pad the stats a bit and help the weaker players forward too.   In the end Obama winning with 271 or 351 EV is irrelevant so long as he wins but the Dems having only 51 senators or having 56 makes a HUGE difference.      

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 05:40:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Slightly disagree (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gooserock, bronte17, MarciaJ720, TomP

        Unless there's a substantial bounce from the Democratic convention - I expect at most a small one of 2-5%, and wouldn't be surprised if there's none - this election is still close enough that we could lose unless we seal the deal in the battleground states.

        Do agree with doing everything possible to shore up our Senate candidates, but we can't risk the Presidency under any circumstances.

        •  and there is a synergy esp in Senate races (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Berkeley Fred, BasharH

          consider the following battleground states with competitive Senate races

          NV
          WI
          VA

          and maybe OH, although I think Sherrod Brown is probably going to be safe

          also consider how strongly Casey is running in PA, which helps the President, which may be one reason the Repubs have given up on the state

          Stabenow is doing solidly in MI which also probably is related to what is happening top line in that state.

          "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

          by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 05:55:30 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  There Will Be Zero Bounce Because There Are No (3+ / 0-)

          undecided voters after 3.5 years of Mooslim Commie Fascist [N-er]. Only people undecided if they will bother to vote.

          We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

          by Gooserock on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:01:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  The BIG DOG is one canine that will NEVER... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TomP, JeffW, elwior

        ...be strapped to Romney's caddy!!!

        Aldus Shrugged : The Antidote to Ayn Rand. Buy ALDUS SHRUGGED on amazon, and ALL royalties will be donated directly to barackobama.com HELP ME TO HELP THE BIG O!!! And follow the fun: @floydbluealdus1

        by Floyd Blue on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:07:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  the best plan (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    petesmom, JeffW

    would be less advertising then and more ground work imo

    •  Why in CO OFA has 59 offices to RR's 11 (7+ / 0-)

      Romney is reflecting his own non strategic mind as I begin to deconstruct him under Sun Tzu's view. He is all tactical in that his strategy is simply trying to occupy the ground and not understand that winning at this level is about purpose and not merely succeeding. This is why Romney possesses no permanent position on anything and also has no value in paying taxes or towards individuals or why he succeeded at PE.

      So giving up on WI and MI and putting it all in for those 100 Electoral Votes says he doesn't understand the strategy of grow your base.

      What happens if FL continues to go Obama?

      They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither safety nor liberty~Ben Franklin

      by RWN on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:27:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  similar pattern on offices in VA and OH (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        chipoliwog, TrueBlueDem, a2nite, JeffW

        which is one reason I happen to think Obama is pretty likely to carry both states, in which case the election is over

        "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

        by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:32:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's important to add to the calculation (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TexasDemocrat, Woody, lonespark

          the fact that the GOP really doesn't need as many offices as Obama does, because they don't have to beg their base to vote. They have a smaller base to work with, the election really depends entirely on whether or not Obama turns out enough of our larger base.

          (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

          by TrueBlueDem on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:49:04 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well, sure (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lonespark

            But if all they do is turn out their base, they lose. They need to turn out more than their base.

          •  not really true (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lonespark

            one reason McCain lost Virginia is that he was very late getting organized on the ground, and did not have well organized boots in places where he could have maximized his votes

            "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

            by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:15:07 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Do white suburbanites really not vote (0+ / 0-)

              if they don't get a phone call or door knock from the campaign though? Or is it because they dislike the candidate and willfully sit it out?

              Bush in '04 did ignite outreach to evangelicals that had seemed to stagnate during the Clinton era, but the GOP demographic seems to be darn near tapped out at this point.

              (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

              by TrueBlueDem on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:42:27 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  I, too, was surprised at their claim (0+ / 0-)

        that no more money needs to go into infrastructure. They are grossly outnumbered by the Obama campaign in organizing offices on the ground in battleground states.

        There's clearly a limit to how much you can get done with an air war, since everyone knows that intense negative advertising tends to depress turnout, not increase it. Getting out the vote is going to be key, and they're not spending their resources there.

        But we are.

  •  Democrats' ad spending (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lonespark, Kinak

    You asked where Democrats are spending ad dollars.

    spiderdem posts a report weekly, on the Polling Report by Steve Singiser, that tracks spending by the campaigns and their superPAC allies.

    Here is spiderdem's latest report, which has his analysis and comments from others:

    $$$ per electoral vote

    1. NH - $177,016 (D) + $75,000 (R) = $252,016
    2. IA - $139,889 (D) + $75,512 (R) = $215,401
    3. VA - $156,659 (D) + $57,932 (R) = $214,591
    4. CO - $140,363 (D) + $59,150 (R) = $199,513
    5. OH - $113,577 (D) + $45,244 (R) = $158,821
    6. NV - $67,452 (D) + $75,841 (R) = $143,293
    7. WI - $0 (D) + $96,580 (R) = $96,580
    8. FL - $61,811 (D) + $34,568 (R) = $96,379
    9. NC - $40,166 (D) + $17,583 (R) = $57,749
    10. NM - $0 (D) + $41,631 (R) = $41,631

  •  So sick of hearing about the race problems... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Marko the Werelynx, sponson

    ...in our great country.  Hell, all it takes is one or a few loons who shout real loudly, or have lots of money, to drown out MILLIONS.  Or a few ignorant shop-owners, or any ignorant citizens speaking their minds in an offensive manner. And that can get discouraging, and truly show us that we have a long way to go to change the minds of 80 or 90 percent of the country.....

    But think about what we are discussing here:

    Romney has to pull an inside royal flush to win....against a black man!!

    GOD, I LOVE OUR COUNTRY!!!

    Aldus Shrugged : The Antidote to Ayn Rand. Buy ALDUS SHRUGGED on amazon, and ALL royalties will be donated directly to barackobama.com HELP ME TO HELP THE BIG O!!! And follow the fun: @floydbluealdus1

    by Floyd Blue on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:10:39 AM PDT

    •  Excuse me? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mrblifil, lonespark, cacamp

      Apparantly the overt racism among some Republicans is clearly tolerated by the Republican Party and the Republican Party clearly panders to racists and roughly half of likely voters seem not to have enough of a problem with that for it to sway there vote. I think that indicates there is a fairly significant race problem remaining in this country.

      It may be a relatively small percent that are rabidly racist, but there's a sizable percent who are passively racist in that they are more than a bit too comfortable with the day to day racial injustice they can't or don't want to see.

      This race is far too close for me to give the benefit of the doubt to more than 60% of the electorate. Not saying 40% are racist, but 40% have a worldview that needs a hell of a lot of enlightening.

      Ds see human suffering and wonder what they can do to relieve it. Rs see human suffering and wonder how they can profit from it.

      by JTinDC on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:37:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Goddamnit, for once I'd like to comment w/out (0+ / 0-)

        a typo, just once-

        Should read
        This race is far too close for me to give the benefit of the doubt to more than 40% of the electorate.

        Ds see human suffering and wonder what they can do to relieve it. Rs see human suffering and wonder how they can profit from it.

        by JTinDC on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:46:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not glossing over anything.... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JTinDC, lonespark, CocoaLove

        ...in fact, being a white man with a black wife, I see firsthand the racism exhibited by many folks on a daily basis.  She gets followed around in a store, by the owner, and I do not.  Meanwhile, she is far more educated and credentialed than I am, and racist idiots will never stop to think about that.
        Racism always comes down to individuals, and their beliefs.  Even institutional racism is ongoing, and can be stopped, BECAUSE OF INDIVIDUAL CHOICES AND ACTIONS.  

        OF COURSE WE STILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM.....but we never seem to talk about how far we have come.

        There are enough open-minded people in this country to vote in and re-elect a black president, even in the face of UNPRECEDENTED opposition, where so many have made it THEIR ONLY GOAL TO STOP HIM; and in the face of BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, from some of the most wealthy, and in a way, the most powerful people in the country.

        And yet, the black guy can still garner 60+ MILLION votes!! ...and be at a point where, even with people out of work and hurting, the white guy needs the proverbial draw of four aces to beat him.

        I think that is significant.  Also, I was alluding to our country v. other countries, where our race problem is always singled out as extraordinary, compared to other countries.  I call total bullshit on that one.  Just go find me a country where either my religion (Jewish), or my wife's race, or my own race, or my political beliefs, or my economic status would not be a problem of some kind.  Good luck finding that country.

        Aldus Shrugged : The Antidote to Ayn Rand. Buy ALDUS SHRUGGED on amazon, and ALL royalties will be donated directly to barackobama.com HELP ME TO HELP THE BIG O!!! And follow the fun: @floydbluealdus1

        by Floyd Blue on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:05:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Canada? nt (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JTinDC

          --Mr. President, you have to earn my vote every day. Not take it for granted. --

          by chipoliwog on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:43:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Actually, they have a lot of West Indian... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lonespark

            immigrants in Canada, though I am only familiar with the population in the Toronto area....and yes, they have had their share of problems....because some people....well, you know.

            Your point is well-taken, though.  Canada has alot going for it.

            (check out Black Uhuru's "Youth of Eglington"  ....great song and quite poignant).

            Aldus Shrugged : The Antidote to Ayn Rand. Buy ALDUS SHRUGGED on amazon, and ALL royalties will be donated directly to barackobama.com HELP ME TO HELP THE BIG O!!! And follow the fun: @floydbluealdus1

            by Floyd Blue on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:10:21 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Two things (0+ / 0-)

          First, I didn't realize you were thinking in terms of in comparison to other countries.

          Second, I see your point in that yes, we have made a great deal of progress.

          I'm offended to my core that today's Republican Party is as comfortable as it is with racist America and that leads me to believe we have not made as much progress as many of us had assumed and it seems a disturbing percent of the population is A-OK with that.

          To be sick of hearing about our racial problems just because we've made progress and we're better than other countries is rather cold in light of all the US citizens who still have race-related struggles.

          Ds see human suffering and wonder what they can do to relieve it. Rs see human suffering and wonder how they can profit from it.

          by JTinDC on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:49:03 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well, that other country comparison was... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JTinDC

            ...only part of my point.  I too am sickened and disgusted almost to the point of irrational behavior, when I see the disgusting garbage coming from republicans and the highest-ranking members of their party....when this garbage should maybe be only coming from fringe whackadoos.  

            I think we agree to agree, actually.

            I am just buoyed by the throngs of all races, and yes, that includes many older white men, cheering on OUR PRESIDENT...OUR BLACK PRESIDENT....AND the fact that so many millions voted for, and will vote for, him.

            I am just in a very positive mood today, thanks to that (African-American) man in the WH, and it just feels damn good!!!

            So, I do believe, overall, we agree to agree.

            Aldus Shrugged : The Antidote to Ayn Rand. Buy ALDUS SHRUGGED on amazon, and ALL royalties will be donated directly to barackobama.com HELP ME TO HELP THE BIG O!!! And follow the fun: @floydbluealdus1

            by Floyd Blue on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:06:50 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  LOL, OK Floyd, I'm glad you feel good. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lonespark, dotdash2u

              And hope I get to a point where I can get more focused on the good too. I think once we get through this election and good has again triumphed over evil, at least in this battle in the greater war, I'll feel better.

              Ds see human suffering and wonder what they can do to relieve it. Rs see human suffering and wonder how they can profit from it.

              by JTinDC on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:13:36 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  it tells me that (9+ / 0-)

    even though I have a full-time job plus grad school and other obligations and hate phonebanking and canvassing, since I live in Virginia, I'd better suck it up and lace up my shoes.  

    •  my sense is that VA is still tilt Obama (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mali muso, JTinDC, mconvente, lonespark

      and if Goode stays on the ballot that takes around 2% out of Romney's hide.

      Very hard to see how Romney can win if he loses VA, especially as he is almost certain to lose NH.   He would then have to run the table with the other 6, and as noted, internal Obama polls had margin in OH at 9 BEFORE the Dem convention

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:23:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Expand the field now (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mali muso, mconvente, lonespark

        The Democrats should pump some money into Texas, Arizona, and Montana. I think Missouri is a lost cause for BHO, but maintaining a presence could keep McKaskill in office. I have a feeling Romney support is paper thin in Tx and Ariz. and some strong groundwork can win some congressional seats and improve odds of 2016 flipping both states.

        The reality is the Democrats are CONTROLLING the game. They are winning. Do they want to expose the Republican defense or do you want to run out the clock? We can't sit back and just hope BHO will withstand Koch Adelson Daddy Warbucks Mark Hanna era dirty money onslaught.

        It's good to be confident but we need to maintain our game awareness. The Republicans will cheat and the refs won't stop them. We have to keep playing...no matter what.

        But nothing could be more crushing to Republican enthusiasm and a harbinger of a crushing defeat than having to force Romney-Ryan spend time and $$$ in Texas trying to hold it.

        I have this image from 1984 (my first Presidential I voted in) during the final weekend of the campaign and Walter Mondale was campaigning in Times Square. Shit, I thought, he and the Dem's are fucked if he has to campaign in a place like NYC. The same would be true if Romney had to spend time in conservative strongholds in Texas. Not only is it time he might not have available for the battleground states but it would  reinforce the perception that he would be losing badly which would further dampen his base turnout.

      •  i want to be part of making sure that's the case (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JTinDC, lonespark, dotdash2u

        I do think that Goode's presence on the ballot is a big help for us.  But we also have to get Kaine into the Senate and keep Macaca Allen out.  

    •  Great attitude! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lonespark, Kinak, mali muso

      I'll take your cue and do the same, even though my state is much less swingy.

  •  I think your last point is the most important (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lonespark, Kinak

    If other people are like me, they immediately tune out after seeing the same ad for the 50th time that week.  That is why I think the Romney money advantage has limited implications for the race.

    •  especially given matter of ground game (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Marko the Werelynx, Kinak

      Obama campaign has many more offices in both VA and OH, just to name two of larger battleground states

      and there is much more activity for ground game, which I am seeing here in Virginia.

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:33:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The ground (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        elmo, Kinak

        is where the grass grows.

        Watching the efforts in the Wisconsin recall was awe inspiring and this election isn't a recall.

        I think Obama can take Wisconsin.

        “The right of the people peaceably to assemble, to consult for the common good, and to petition the government, or any department thereof, shall never be abridged.”

        by Marko the Werelynx on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:55:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Despite my nuttering above (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chimene

    It's dispiriting to see a race this close between two men who couldn't be further apart in far too many ways.

    The electoral numbers still make me cringe. Or at least spout nonsense. Feels good to know Romney has further to go to win this thing.

    But I'm glad to see the positive signs in most of the polls and if nothing else, the conventions proved to me that I'm not crazy for thinking the GOP has no energy. It's hard to cheer for hate for hours even if it is wrapped up in flags.

    I was hugely pissed off at the Dems for that crap about including Jerusalem and God in the meaningless platform and the scripted 2/3 vote that the conventioneers didn't play along with. Spoiled all the positive feeling I'd gotten from watching Michelle, Elizabeth, Bill and Barack give their speeches to then discover that pathetic, horrible, fetid bit of bad theater.

    Felt like I was on a middle school playground.

    I'd like to see some changes to the employment status of whoever orchestrated that. They definitely have the wrong job and that sort of dishonesty just reeks of the sort of sleaze that makes politics so repugnant to so many people.

    I may have to watch another speech to cheer myself up. Who else brought the good stuff?

    I have high hopes for the debates. After seeing the GOP at their polished best seem like a bunch of drunken high school kids knocking over tombstones I'd like to have their followers tune in to see their beloved leaders face to face with something of substance.

    “The right of the people peaceably to assemble, to consult for the common good, and to petition the government, or any department thereof, shall never be abridged.”

    by Marko the Werelynx on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:51:33 AM PDT

  •  Romney is the new Meg Whitman, the constant media (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mrblifil, walk2live, mconvente, chimene

    storm of personally financed advertising in California was overkill. The voting population tired quickly of the constant flow of political attack ads and Jerry Brown triumphed using a savvy two month advertising and personal appearance strategy focusing on what the future of California would be like under his leadership. Whitman spent millions and got crushed leading a campaign into the past when Californians wanted to know about their future. I think Americans will look to the future in this election, as Californians did in 2010, they know that Republicans are out of ideas and have no positive vision of the future.

    "Intelligence is quickness in seeing things as they are..." George Santayana

    by KJG52 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:53:43 AM PDT

  •  I absolutely agree that TV ads reach (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mconvente, Kinak, chimene

    saturation very quickly. I already sit with the remote in my hand and just mute all ads during the news, which is when the saturation seems to be worst. I skip Obama's; I skip Romney's; but most of all, I skip those abysmally dishonest Crossroads and Americans for Prosperity ads.

    Romney economics: Feed our seed corn to the fattest pigs and trust them to poop out jobs.

    by blue aardvark on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:55:43 AM PDT

  •  COmment (0+ / 0-)

    It's interesting that Romney has ceded Wisconsin and Michigan so early.  (Or even Pennsylvania.  He doesn't have a prayer in PA or MI right now, but he has enough money to force us to defend both states, which are must wins for us.)

    I'm surprised he hasn't ceded NH and put that into WI.  He has a better chance in WI.  Unless, as has been pointed out, his pollsters have bad news they haven't released.

  •  Wait a second (8+ / 0-)
    Obama will not carry IN with its 11 electoral votes
    Remember that McCain was ahead by 6 points in most polling in the run up to 2008 and that in the end Obama took the state by a slim margin.

    Indiana is still in play even if the pundits and polls say otherwise.

    Ground folks like me are making sure that happens by registering everyone under the sun, organizing poll drives, and planning to volunteer to drive people the polls if need be.

    I cannot begin to repeat the increase in chatter regarding this election compared to 2008. There are just more people getting involved with the civics this year compared to that year.

    --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

    by idbecrazyif on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:08:21 AM PDT

    •  We heard this last time too (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      idbecrazyif, mconvente, lonespark, Kinak

      and look what happened! Indiana can go blue again!

      "We must move forward, not backward. Upward, not forward. And always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom!"

      by Purdue219 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:31:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Exactly, we can make it happen (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Purdue219, mconvente, lonespark, Kinak

        I think the GOP is forgetting how important the ground game is, or they took the wrong clue from Wisconsin in thinking that it was the ad buys that helped there when it really didn't

        What did help was the GOTV for the recall allowing dems to take back the senate.

        We're applying that same template all over.

        --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

        by idbecrazyif on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:35:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  a major difference last time (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      idbecrazyif, lonespark

      in both IN and NC is that there were late contested primaries in both which gave Obama's people a chance to identify a whole batch of new supporters

      absent such a primary this time that organizational basis is not there

      the only thing that MIGHT put IN into play is that Lugar lost to Mourdock -  if Romney or Ryan appears with their Senatorial candidate that can have some negative impact up ballot

      I do not see the Obama people committing to IN as they did last cycle

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:19:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  We don't need them too, we already have (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mconvente

        volunteer locations being setup and local groups mobilizing in almost the exact same fashion we had for 2008. Facebook pages with chatter, meetups being scheduled, etc...

        We're the same folks who did this in 08, just now instead of working out of a few campaign offices we're working out of someone's kitchen.

        Give us a chance, we just might surprise you :)

        --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

        by idbecrazyif on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:23:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  THE OBAMA ADS ARE ON CABLE.... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Micheline, chimene

    Charlie Cook was right about this on morning joe...my father is in FL and they have been bombarded with negative ads since GOP primary.  They too are seeing this stuff and he immediately turns the channel.  Romney is betting his swiss bank account on an Air Game.  We saw this show before with Obama and Clinton and we see who won.  But, we still need to donate and organize.  Lastly, there is a reason why GOP is trying to suppress the vote, because we got our folks out last time, and still many GOPers are tepid to Romney as we saw during their convention.

  •  Hopefully Obama still microtargets his ad buys (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    elmo, lonespark, Kinak, chimene

    I have no doubt he will, from what I've seen in reddish Virginia.

    I watch a decent amount of TV, but there are only a few things I will watch live (football and news shows).  Everything else gets put on the DVR and I fast forward through the commercials.  This strategy means I've only seen a couple of Romney ads in the past couple of weeks.  I've seen more pro-Obama (purchased by OFA) than anything else.  

    Obama's team is smart. Let Romney blanket the airwaves - it doesn't matter to me if I'm skipping through his ads or ads for Preparation H.

    And, to add, if carpetbombing people with ads foretold the success of something, then Battleship would have been the runaway hit movie of the summer.  Sometimes a bad product is still a bad product.

  •  Florida fiasco (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chimene

    My thought is that thanks to voter purges, we'll have another Florida fiasco again on our hands in 2012.

    If the president wins Florida, then it'll be in Ohio. Personally, I think this is a must steal election for the Republicans.

  •  Why is the GOP shrinking the field?.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RichM

    If I had Mitt's cash, I'd be putting up ads everywhere....expanding the field....and making Obama defend friendly territory. Hell, I'd have ads overseas for military members and citizens abroad.

    By limiting buys to 8 states, he's given up the $ advantage (his only advantage, btw). Obama has the time and money to spend in 8 states. This makes no sense to me.

    •  Could it be, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mconvente

      just speculation here, that his money advantage isn't all it's cracked up to be? Maybe the RNC is hoping to use a lot of the cash it's raised with Mitt on downballot races instead?

    •  Yup... (0+ / 0-)

      In another diary, somebody compared it to pizza.  If Mitt has enough money to buy 100 slices and Obama  5 - then if there are only 10 slices left - Obama is on even footing.  Mitt should be buying ad time in WI, NJ, PA, MI and MN at least.

      “An imbalance between rich and poor is the oldest and most fatal ailment of all republics.” - Plutarch

      by RichM on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:52:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I haven't seen... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kinak

    A Romney ad (as in I'm mittens and I approve this message) in Colorado in over a week.

    “An imbalance between rich and poor is the oldest and most fatal ailment of all republics.” - Plutarch

    by RichM on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:49:28 AM PDT

  •  We're going to find out about $$$ (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chimene

    This is as good an experiment as we could hope for about whether money can buy national elections. Will the Democratic ground game trump their air war?

    I'm cautiously optimistic because there are (mostly hushed up) studies that advertising isn't as effective as advertising agencies hope everyone keeps believing. And Romney has done a pretty bad job so far. If we were running against Pawlenty or Huckabee we'd be in deep trouble.

    I'm cautiously pessimistic because "you can fool some of the people all of the time" is tattooed on Karl Roves devil tail. And because people I wouldn't expect in my personal sphere are popping up spouting Romney-bot talking points and, as usual across the political spectrum, they've already decided so even when it's a complete fabrication they've bought it and won't be swayed. My guess is with my circle it's about race and they don't even admit it to themselves but calling them out won't do anything.

    Any other speculation in this comment would crossover into well meaning long view concern trolling or generic cheer leading neither of which are really relevant in a dKos comments thread.

    If you didn't like the news today, go out and make some of your own.

    by jgnyc on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:03:08 AM PDT

  •  This line scares the HELL out of me... (0+ / 0-)
    If Romney were to carry all 8, he would have 291 electoral votes to Obama's 247.
    Hence their decision to "carpet bomb" those states with advertising.

    I know chances are VERY slim he'll carry all 8, but it IS path to winning.

    "Well, the problem here is that you're out of candy. You're gonna need more candy." Rachel Maddow on the Big Bailout

    by cishart on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:34:23 AM PDT

    •  except several of those states are highly unlikely (0+ / 0-)

      if you take Nate Silver seriously

      what he shows as chances of Obama winning

      first one reason Romney might not be advertising in Wisconsin is that Obama's chances of winning are 81.0 %

      now for the eight "competitive" states
      NH  82.6
      NV  82.4
      VA 72.6
      OH 71.9
      CO 71.8
      IA  71.8
      FL 63.1

      NC is 59.9 for Romney, and if he loses that, he will already have lost VA

      Take out the 10 EVs from NH and Nevada and Romney has a universe of 90 in the remaining  targeted states in order to gain the 78 he needs for a 269-269 tie or the 79 for an outright win.

      Is it possible?  Yes, even in Nate's analysis, which is based only on public polls.

      I do think it is telling that the Obama campaign leaked their internal OH poll of a 9 point lead, and there was no push back from the Republicans.

      I also do not think Nate has taken into effect in his analysis the fact that Virgil Goode is now on the ballot in VA, although AG Ken Cuccinelli will try to knock him off.  I think that is worth 2% to Obama, but even if it is only 1% it probably bumps the probability of Obama carrying the Old Dominion by at least another 4-5%.

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:54:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Turned off and tuned out (0+ / 0-)

    I'm in Florida and stopped watching ads after the primaries. I didn't watch too many of them then. Can't take Romney's smarmy behind.

  •  huge crowd for Dems in Portsmouth NH (0+ / 0-)

    right now

    Romney w/be in Iowa today.

    This crowd is enthusiastic

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:56:44 AM PDT

    •  turns out Obama girls go to camp in NH (0+ / 0-)

      which makes a connection on a personal level in the Granite State

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:58:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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