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Flake (using the word Politico everywhere instead of his own name) just sent my husband a flyer.  My husband once registered R in order to vote in a sensitive primary and so we get all the phone calls and literature.

You may not realize but there is an interesting Senate race taking place here.  Carmona (D) versus Flake (R and a really dangerous flake).

Jump with me over the loops:

Arizona is a red state.  We all know that.  However, we've occasionally elected Democrats.

How are they doing?  It's hard to know because there don't seem to be too many polls.  If you go to Real Clear Politics you'll see that they list three:

PPP in late July: tied at 38%
Rasmussen in late June: Flake up 16%
Magellan end of April/early May: Flake up 4%

So RCP has averaged the above three and shows Flake at +6.7% over Carmona.  But if we go by the most recent poll (not very recent) it appears that Carmona has a chance.

Politico/Flake approach  

As I said, we received this flyer.  It makes two points, over and over:

(1) Obama supports Carmona's run.  It keeps going on about times when Obama and Carmona have gotten along.

I know a lot of people - especially in AZ - don't like Obama.  Nevertheless we can see from the DNC that Obama's favorabilities are improving.  Perhaps they are improving here, too.

(2) It goes on and on about how Obama hurt Medicare with that $716 billion.  Now, AZ has a lot of retirees so Medicare so this is an important issue.  Of course we know what a lie that is - and it seems others are learning this too.

But we need to work to spread the truth.

I've seen NO signs for Romney/Ryan, and several for Obama/Biden.  Four years ago I saw plenty for McCain.

Perhaps I'm whistling in the dark, but I'm hoping.


If you like Greek mythology then check out my website.

Originally posted to chloris creator on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 06:24 PM PDT.

Also republished by Baja Arizona Kossacks.

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Comment Preferences

  •  at the rate that Rmoney keeps going (8+ / 0-)

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Utah soon in play for the dems.......

  •  I'm with you on the increased presence need. (7+ / 0-)

    Way down here in Cochise Co. there are more Rmoney signs than Obama. However, there are very few Rmoney to begin with, and very few bumperstickers for him, even at Walmart in Sierra Vista.

    That last surprised me a bit, considering Fort Huachuca is a mere stone's throw away at the end of the boulevard. Local races are more dominant, and Carmona is visible here but so is Flake.

    I don't have TV or listen to the scant local radio, so I'm not too hip on the media impact. Most of the media here is Tucson driven anyway, or far too often, Rushbo driven.

    Give me classical over Rush any day.

    •  I'm in Vista (0+ / 0-)

      and most of the signs in the city are for down-ticket races.  You are correct that "local" radio is nearly non-existent and what is here is skewed rightward.  

      You can't keep a mighty tree alive (much less expect it to thrive) by only spritzing the fine leaves at its tippy-top. The fate of the whole tree depends on nurturing the grassroots. - Jim Hightower

      by PSzymeczek on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 12:09:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Go Carmona! (10+ / 0-)

    They fear him because he is the real deal.  Purple heart, bronze star. He is bright, competent, hardworking, and a man of character.  I think that he is pretty centrist politically. In another era he might have been a Republican.

    I had a good friend who was very liberal politically who worked closely with him as a nurse when Carmona was an ER Doc (I think head of an ER).  Spoke always exceedingly well of him.   I had another friend who was a flaming conservative who volunteered with him at the sheriffs or police dept or something. He also spoke glowingly of him.

    Maybe I should sign up for his campaign.

    he was confirmed by the U.S. Senate on July 23, 2002 by a vote of 98-0  -

    Oh yeah, and rags - to - riches story.

    "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics" - F.D.R.

    by biscobosco on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 07:17:20 PM PDT

    •  David Fitsimmons had an excellent (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      editorial cartoon in the Star over the weekend, showing Jeff Flake being buried by Richard Carmona's resume.

      You can't keep a mighty tree alive (much less expect it to thrive) by only spritzing the fine leaves at its tippy-top. The fate of the whole tree depends on nurturing the grassroots. - Jim Hightower

      by PSzymeczek on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 12:11:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Of course I'm annoyed with Obama (6+ / 0-)

    for having stolen our governor and leaving us with Jan Brewer.  We could use some support.

    On the other hand, Carmona might do better if Obama doesn't show up here.

    by chloris creator on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 07:30:06 PM PDT

    •  were you at the rally for Gabby G (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Lujane, PSzymeczek

      When Janet came to speak. That was some ovation. It is amazing what a difference one person makes for a whole state. Going to hell in a handbasket without her..  

      But shows how tenuous the balance really is here despite the ugly stuff the R's are doing-  

      2008 McCain 53, Obama 45 - AND MCCAIN IS FROM AZ!!  Just think if 4% of people had switched their  votes it would have been a tie.

      I still believe I will live to see arizona go blue!

      "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics" - F.D.R.

      by biscobosco on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 08:05:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No, I spend a lot of time out of the country (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Lujane, PSzymeczek

        I campaigned for Gabby in 2010, though - it was tight and the atmosphere was toxic - the shooting was not really a surprise.

        Probably the shooter would have shot someone, though - given his history I always felt as if the folks at Pima Community College dodged some bullets.

        by chloris creator on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 08:20:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  This is not my beautiful state (0+ / 0-)

          Seriously "the shooting was not a real surprise"  - You really feel that way? WTF? If so what does that say about our state. What is wrong with people?

          "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics" - F.D.R.

          by biscobosco on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 10:03:10 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I do feel that way (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            Strangers were insulting each other in the street

            Billboards were incredibly nasty and full of lies

            Radio talk was vicious

            I remember feeling nervous a few times - nervous in the sense that I sensed violence was near.  I think that is a sense that many of us have.


            by chloris creator on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 07:57:26 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  There was Jesse Kelly's (0+ / 0-)

            campaign event involving fully automatic weapons and life-size cardboard cutouts of Gabrielle Giffords.  

            You can't keep a mighty tree alive (much less expect it to thrive) by only spritzing the fine leaves at its tippy-top. The fate of the whole tree depends on nurturing the grassroots. - Jim Hightower

            by PSzymeczek on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 12:13:30 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Politico sent a flyer? Politico? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Who cares what banks may fail in Yonkers. Long as you've got a kiss that conquers.

    by rasbobbo on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 07:31:39 PM PDT

  •  Without McCain it will be harder for AZ to stay R (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    But Obama's public tussles with the AZ Governor might make things hard for him there.

    We lose if we choose to forget; the lives of men, and money spent.

    by DeanDemocrat on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 07:31:49 PM PDT

  •  I have hope for AZ to go Blue (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lujane, PSzymeczek

    moved to Phoenix a year ago to be close to grandkids. Crazy is all I can say... But I have hope.

  •  How red are we? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    melfunction, piratedan, PSzymeczek

    Napolitano was governor here, y'know. My last "republican" rep was Kolbe, a well-known RINO. And, y'know, gay.

    My last rep was a blue dog, and my current rep is also a deep blue dog, but still...

    My local sheriff was nationally castigated for mentioning that the right-wing nut jobs think that lethal firepower is their natural right, and he thought that might be a bad idea. He's doing well for re-election here now.

    Admitting that there's a lot of right-wing crazies in Phoenix, and they kinda run things in AZ, the fact is that in my personal space here more rational views prevail.

    And i think Carmona is doing well around by me. I hope that helps.

    Reality has a well-known liberal bias -- Stephen Colbert

    by ItsaMathJoke on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 09:10:11 PM PDT

  •  I have a bit of advice for the Carmona campaign... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    ...and here it is: Fear not that Latino vote. Really, don't be afraid.

    Because the Latino vote is what can put you into office, Rich. And, furthermore, they're not "a buncha illegals here to take our jobs."

    To the contrary. Many of our state's Latinos have been here for generations. It's us non-Latino people who are the relative newcomers around here.

    There are many of non-Latino people who are sick and tired of all the nastiness that's being heaped on Latinos in this state. And, yes, we do vote.

    I think the rest of this country will be surprised at how fast Arizona will change. The current nastiness will soon become a thing of the past.

    Why? Because of demographics. The old nasties are dying off, and they're being replaced by a much more diverse and cosmopolitan population.

  •  I'm seeing signs up for Carmona (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    in the Tucson Foothills area that is traditionally very Red part of town.  Because of his ties in the medical and police communities, Carmona has a very good crossover appeal to those very R's that still look at elections on a case by case basis (few those may be tho) and to be honest, with Flake being endorsed by Kyl and having his own history of never doing anything while in office except go on field trips.... it's possible that Carmona can actually win this thing.  His facebook page shows that he's campaigning relentlessly, especially taking time with seniors.  

    McCain was vulnerable last year and we screwed the pooch with the nominee, I think Carmona is way different, travels in some circles that allow him to tap into donors with some serious cash and I wish/hope that the DNC will get involved and show him some financial love. He's known nationally and to be honest, outside of Flake being part of the R mormon east valley machine, what else has he got going for him?

    I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused - Elvis Costello "The Angels Wanna Wear My Red Shoes"

    by piratedan on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 08:53:19 AM PDT

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