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The latest PPP poll conducted for the League of Conservation Voters shows Democrat Dr. Richard Carmona trailing his Republican opponent, Congressman Jeff Flake by just one point! Carmona gets 43% while Flake gets 44% and the remaining 13% are Undecided. The poll was conducted between September 7-9 and polled 993 Likely Voters:
Here are some stats about this poll. First, it shows that Dr. Carmona is still unknown, but his favorables are 34% and his Unfavorables are 13%. 49% are still not sure. Now Flake is more well known than Carmona and has a 44% Favorable view and a 35% Unfavorable. 21% have no opinion about him. What's really interesting about this poll is party identification break down. 36% of the respondents were Democrats, 44% were Republicans and 21% were Independent. Another thing to look at are the 2008 & 2012 voters views towards Carmona & Flake. Carmona gets favorable views from 17% of John McCain voters while Flake gets 14% favorable views from Obama voters. Now for 2012 voters, Carmona gets 17% Republican voters, 78% Democratic voters and 36% from Independents. Flake gets 11% Democratic voters, 74% Republican voters and 39% Independent voters. So Carmona has time to win over more Independents but he gets more support from his party than Flake does.
Carmona is still unknown and he is using the War On Women as his main campaign issue this year. He recently received endorsements from famous Republican Arizona Senator, Barry Goldwater's daughter and granddaughter. Flake is still unknown but he gets 32% favorable views from women and 37% favorable views from men. Flake's favorability between men and women is even, 44% men, 44% women. Right now, Flake is leading with women, 43% to Carmona's 40% and Flake leads with men, 46% to Carmona's 45%. The other thing to take into account is 16% of women are still undecided. So Carmona needs to keep campaigning against the War On Women and emphasize Flake's radical views and voting record towards women's reproductive rights so he can get more women voters on his side.
This is surprisingly a closer race than one would think. It's a mixture of Carmona still being heavily unknown and Flake's favorables declining since his nasty primary with Wil Cardon. Even in a state like Arizona where Obama trails Romney by nine points (53% Romney, 44% Obama) we're seeing a split ticket here just like Massachusetts and Wisconsin. Now Warren's gained big time in the polls since her convention speech and with Tommy Thompson's staff trying to attack Tammy Baldwin's sexual orientation, I don't doubt we'll see a bounce for Baldwin soon. Now if Obama can convince voters in MA and WI that he needs Warren and Baldwin as allies in the Senate, they will win. Romney needs to convince AZ voters that he would need Flake as an ally in the Senate. I for one always believed that this was going to be a close race. Even Arizona Republicans like Carmona's chances of winning and think he is a great candidate:
What better way to stick it to the GOP than to win one of their seats on their home turf. Lets help Dr. Carmona become better known to the good voters of Arizona. Donate to his Act Blue Page:
P.S. I found this story in David Nir's Election Update post from today: