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Leading Off:

CT-Sen: Ruh-roh. Roll Call's Abby Livingston reports that the DSCC is coming in to Connecticut with a $320,000 ad buy to help Chris Murphy, who has found himself locked in a tossup with Republican Linda McMahon in recent polling. The sum isn't big, and it may just be a small precautionary gesture, but it could also be a sign that more outside assistance will be necessary to keep this race in the blue column. And either way, it shows that national Democrats are taking the McMahon threat seriously. (You can find the actual DSCC TV spot in our "Ads" sub-section below.)

In other news, McMahon secured the ballot line for the state's Independent Party; because Connecticut has fusion voting, voters will be able to pull the lever for McMahon either on the Republican line or the Independent line. For a polarizing figure like McMahon, that's a real bonus, because people who aren't comfortable voting for a Republican can still cast a ballot for her as a psychologically "safer" independent.

But McMahon might have over-reached on at least one front. A former C-SPAN scholar, Ilona Nickels, is furious that a McMahon mailer took remarks she made to a newspaper out of context—and when I say "out of context," I really do mean it here. In a story on Murphy's attendance at committee hearings, Nickels said:

"Every failure to attend can't be chalked up to, he's a lazy SOB. He doesn't want to do his work. He's a slacker. Members are overtaxed."
So what did McMahon's flyer say?
CT-Sen Misleading Linda McMahon mailer
Nickels, in a letter to the McMahon campaign, has demanded that they "cease and desist using my words in such a blatant out of context and dishonest manner." Naturally, McMahon is trying to just brazen it out.

Meanwhile, Brian Lockhart at the Stamford Advocate did some actual reporting and learned that "experts agreed available evidence does not support" McMahon's bogus claims that Murphy "got a sweetheart deal or engaged in a quid-pro-quo arrangement with the bank" that gave him a home equity line of credit. McMahon is obviously trying to turn this non-story into a repeat of the Countrywide loan controversy that helped sink ex-Sen. Chris Dodd's political career, but there just aren't any similarities here.

Senate:

FL-Sen: SurveyUSA's previous Florida sample two months ago was one of the weirdest polls of the cycle—they had Barack Obama leading by 5 points, which seemed unusually good, but at the exact same time, they had Bill Nelson trailing Connie Mack IV by 6, which was not only the biggest lead Mack had ever seen but baffling, considering that every other poll before and after has had Nelson overperforming Obama. Well, SurveyUSA seems to have rectified that with their newest Sunshine State offering, which finds the presidential race in a similar place (Obama leading 48-44) but Nelson doing fine against Mack, leading 47-36 (a 17-point "turnaround"). Maybe Nelson's advertising has been successful in driving up Mack's negatives (which now stand at 25/37), but I suspect they somehow stumbled last time across a disproportionately large patch of the state's few Obama/Mack voters.

All hope's not lost for Mack, though: He's getting $1 million in ad support from Freedom PAC. As you might expect, there are multiple Freedom PACs running around, but according to Politico, it's the one that's funded by casino mogul Sheldon Adelson and Swift-Boater/Texas developer Bob Perry. The ad, a highlight reel of Mack's GOP convention speech, will be running in the Tampa and Orlando markets only. (David Jarman)

MT-Sen, MT-AL: Public Policy Polling is out with a new sample of the Montana Senate race, where they've tended to see Dem incumbent Jon Tester with a small lead (he was up 5 in their previous poll), Rasmussen tends to give GOPer Denny Rehberg a small lead... and as for a tie-breaker, well, we just don't know, because nobody else ever seems to poll here. In their newest poll, PPP continues to find Tester leading, though it's a bit tighter now, with him ahead 45-43. Montanans like neither candidate much (Tester's at 46/48 approvals, Rehberg with 42/52), and they have their respective bases locked down, but Tester's edge among independents (41-33) gives him the lead overall.

Meanwhile, in the state's open-seat, at-large House race, Republican Steve Daines leads Dem Kim Gillan only 40-37. If it's truly that competitive I'm a little surprised not to see third-party groups playing here—especially since it's a cheap media state, and especially since the two candidates are little-known and some advertising would go a long way to defining them. At the top of the ticket, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama 50-45, though that's down to 46-43 with Gary Johnson at 3 when factoring in the Libertarian. (David Jarman)

NM-Sen: Another day, another good poll for Democrat Martin Heinrich. He's now legged out to a 50-41 lead over Heather Wilson in PPP's latest survey, up from 48-43 in mid-July. Obama's doing well, too: He, too, held only a five-point edge the last time PPP was in the field, but now he's dominating Romney 53-42.

Ads:

AZ-Sen: Democrat Rich Carmona says that "Republicans and Democrats both got it wrong" on healthcare.

CT-Sen: Here's that DSCC ad going after Republican Linda McMahon (see separate CT-Sen item above). The spot hits her for laying off " 10 percent of her employees—even workers in Connecticut—and didn't pay Medicare, Social Security and unemployment for her wrestlers." Democrat Chris Murphy also has a new spot that is thematically identical.

Meanwhile, McMahon attacks Murphy for allegedly voting to jeopardize defense jobs in Connecticut. Murphy explains in a press release that the roll calls in question were for "national defense bills that Murphy opposed because they included an open-ended timeline for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan."

HI-Sen: Like many other politicians, Democrat Mazie Hirono took down her campaign ads on Tuesday, out of respect for 9/11 remembrances. But she busted Linda Lingle for failing to do the same. You can catch Lingle's crappy attack ad (about Hirono allegedly missing votes) at the 1:13 mark in this TV capture.

MA-Sen: Democrat Elizabeth Warren's new ad features a narrator talking about how she'll fight on behalf of the little guy, along with clips of regular citizens saying the same thing. The spot appears to reflect a contemplated shift in messaging reported by the Boston Globe, relying "more on the voices of voters from all walks of life," rather than the somewhat more didactic ads Warren's run previously, where she talks directly to the camera.

FL-Sen: GOP Rep. Connie Mack tries to attack Dem Sen. Bill Nelson over those bogus "$700 billion in cuts to Medicare." Crummy production values.

NV-Sen: Two new ads from Dem Rep. Shelley Berkley. In the first, Berkley speaks out passionately on behalf of the unemployed and why supporting unemployment benefits is the right thing. The second is in Spanish and talks about the DREAM Act. Heller also has an awfully-edited Spanish-language ad featuring two women complaining about energy prices.

PA-Sen: Dem Sen. Bob Casey uses a clip of Tom Smith saying he's started his own tea party group and attacks him for supporting Social Security privatization and the Medicare-ending Ryan plan. Great imagery of a spinning teacup with Smith's mug on the side ("is Tom Smith your cup of tea?").

VA-Sen: Democrat Tim Kaine goes on the attack, contrasting his record as governor with George Allen's record as governor (and senator). Meanwhile, Allen offers a paean to a "better future" that's "free of excessive regulations and taxes" and where we "stop the devastating defense cuts" that Congressional Republicans of course agreed to.

WI-Sen: The DSCC attacks Tommy Thompson for going Washington and selling out regular folks to become a highly-paid lobbyist. Meanwhile, Thompson offers some platitudes.

Gubernatorial:

WA-Gov: Hot on the heels of Tuesday's SurveyUSA poll giving Dem Jay Inslee a 5-point lead over GOPer Rob McKenna comes a new poll from Public Policy Polling (on behalf of Washington Conservation Voters) finding Inslee with a barely-different 6-point lead, 48-42. And cross-checking the presidential results shows that it's not an overly-Dem-friendly sample: They also find Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by "only" 53-42. Actual 2008 results in Washington were 57-40.

Meanwhile, the latest fundraising numbers from Washington (which requires monthly disclosures in statewide races) show, just like most other months, near-parity between the candidates on the money front. Inslee raised $1.2 million (though $270K of that was a transfer from the state Democratic party), while McKenna raised $1 million. Inslee has $3.4 mil on hand, while McKenna has $3.7 mil. Inslee's fundraising should get a jolt on Saturday the 15th, though, with a fundraising appearance by Bill Clinton in Seattle. (David Jarman)

Ads:

IN-Gov: Continuing a theme of past ads, GOP Rep. Mike Pence goes positive and mostly non-partisan, focusing on jobs.

MT-Gov: In his first general election ad, GOP ex-Rep. Rick Hill touts his humble upbringing in a "one-room apartment" and mentions that he contracted polio as a kid before launching into some platitudes about Montana. Meanwhile, AFSCME attacks Hill for voting to cut Medicare while in Congress. (Note this isn't Ryan-related, as Hill served in the `90s.)

NC-Gov: In his first ad, Democrat Walter Dalton says he's "not slick or fancy" and says he wanted to end job outsourcing, education cuts, and "unfair tax cuts for big corporations." Republican Pat McCrory complains about the high cost of gas and says he wants to "unleash" North Carolina's natural resources.

WV-Gov: Doesn't the RGA have more competitive races to worry about? I guess they're probing for weaknesses in this new spot that tries to compare Dem Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin's state-level healthcare plan to (what else?) "Obamacare."

House:

FL-16: GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan's lawyers say that the Dept. of Justice has ended its inquiry into Buchanan's campaign finances and will not bring any charges. The DoJ, of course, is not commenting.

MA-06: We have our first independent poll of the hotly contested MA-06 race, conducted by MassINC Polling Group on behalf of WBUR. They find Dem Rep. John Tierney up 46-34 over Republican Richard Tisei when leaners are pressed (the incumbent's lead starts off at 39-32 without including leaners). Tierney's favorables, at 35-30, are not as bad as I might have feared, while Tisei is still mostly unknown at 29-13. And the survey's presidential toplines are certainly not overly-rosy for Democrats: Obama leads Romney 47-37, in a district he carried by 16 four years ago. Statewide polling's been kind of scattered, but that drop seems plausible. All in all, if I were Tierney, I'd take these numbers.

RI-01: The DCCC conducted another one of their one-night in-house robopolls, just a day before Rhode Island's primary. Dem Rep. David Cicilline handily turned back an intra-party challenge on Tuesday from self-described "conservative Democrat" Anthony Gemma, 62-30, but he has a tougher fight on his hands in November. The D-Trip's survey puts Cicilline up 49-43 over former state police chief Brendan Doherty, and hopefully, Cicilline really is that close to the 50% mark. The poll didn't include presidential toplines, but the memo does mention that respondents were asked how they voted in 2008, saying they went for Obama by 33 points. That's basically the same as the president's actual 35-point margin, which seems optimistic, since you'd expect Obama's performance this year to fall off from his first effort.

WI-01: As we saw from reports a day earlier, Paul Ryan's hedging his bets as far as that whole VP gambit is concerned and actually running ads for his House re-election campaign. Here's his first spot, in which he gratingly lectures a group of people at a coffee shop about how "[w]e don't want a government-controlled society."

We also now have access to a recent Ryan internal poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies which had him up 58-33 over Democrat Rob Zerban (down from 63-29 in July, but still). I can't understand why Ryan wouldn't have touted this louder to deter speculation that he feels threatened by Zerban. Then again, he was always going to be stuck with the "why is he pursuing his backup plan?" narrative no matter what.

Ads:

AZ-02: A constituent who suffered what she calls the "perfect storm" of an illness and a job change that put her home at risk praises Dem Rep. Ron Barber for helping her sort out her mortgage issues and keep her house.

CA-10: Democrat Jose Hernandez nails GOP Rep. Jeff Denham for an amateur screwup: At the end of this Medicare-related attack ad, Denham recites the standard "I approve this message" incantation, but fails to include a written approval notice on screen, as required by law. Hernandez says that Denham pulled the ad, but I presume they'll be back up with an amended spot shortly.

CA-21: Democrat John Hernandez wants to "put jobs first."

CA-26: Democrat Julia Brownley attacks Tony Strickland as a foot-solider in the war on women (opposed the Violence Against Women Act and contraceptive coverage), contrasting his record with her own.

IA-03: GOP Rep. Tom Latham attacks Dem Rep. Leonard Boswell for voting for TARP and the stimulus, and for the usual "cut Medicare" lie.

IA-04: GOP Rep. Steve King tries to soften his image, with Marilyn King saying: "He's had one wife, one house and one church for forty years. And I'm that one wife." Also, check out his awesome sideburns in the first frame.

IL-13: Democrat David Gill's first ad is a nice introductory spot, talking about his humble upbringing (working as a dish-washer at age 13 after his father died). The narrator mentions that Gill, a physician, has "never been on a public payroll"—a contrast to his Republican opponent, former congressional staffer Rodney Davis.

IL-17: Democrat Cheri Bustos goes after GOP Rep. Bobby Schilling for wanting to "keep using our tax dollars to reward companies shipping jobs overseas."

IN-08: GOP Rep. Larry Buchson promises to repeal Obamacare because "as a heart surgeon, I know that the relationship between patient and doctor is sacred."

MA-06: Dem Rep. John Tierney does his best to shred Richard Tisei's image as a "moderate" Republican, unearthing several statements of Tisei's which show him pretty friendly to the tea party agenda. Size of the buy: A huge $525K in the Boston media market. Part of the purchase is being paid for by the DCCC.

ME-02: Republican Kevin Raye touts his efforts toward bipartisanship and tries to tie himself to retiring Sen. Olympia Snowe, whom he worked for for 17 years.

NC-07: If you didn't know Rep. Mike McIntyre was a member of the Democratic caucus, you'd assume this ad was for a Republican. A local pharmacist/deacon praises McIntyre as a "strong conservative and Christian" who "leads a bipartisan prayer group" and is "endorsed by the NRA."

NJ-03: Democrat Shelley Adler tries to use GOP Rep. Jon Runyan's past as an NFL lineman as a hook for bashing his record in Congress. A couple of mock sports announcers use some football metaphors ("still blocking like a pro!") to dig Runyan on healthcare.

NV-03: The DCCC slams GOP Rep. Joe Heck for voting against requiring insurance companies to pay for a vaccine that helps prevent cervical cancer vaccine. Size of the buy: $133K.

NY-21: Dem Rep. Bill Owens tries to play a little Obamacare ju-jitsu, defending his vote for the Affordable Care Act by saying "we can't go back to letting the insurance industry deny care for pre-existing conditions."

NY-25: Dem Rep. Louise Slaughter is apparently leaving nothing to chance and is going negative on Maggie Brooks. Slaughter hits Brooks for mismanagement of Monroe County, where she serves as executive, reciting a dizzying array of screwups and scandals.

OH-16: Annoyingly, GOP Rep. Jim Renacci has two YouTube accounts, and he just re-uploaded an ad that he first started airing two weeks ago. (Luckily, I decided to Google it, because his claims were so irritating.) He does appear to have a new spot, though, complaining about third-party attack ads in general. Amusingly, AFSCME is up with a new ad of its own, attacking Renacci on a variety of grounds, but mostly for going Washington.

PA-08: Republican Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick says he wants to "balanc[e] the budget" and "reduc[e] wasteful regulations" in his first ad.

PA-12: Dem Rep. Mark Critz says he fought "President Obama's EPA" to get an air shaft built at a coal mine that would have created 700 jobs. He could stand to work on his laconic delivery.

SD-AL: GOP Rep. Kristi Noem's first ad attacks the national debt and spending. Also, she bounces up and down on a horse in slow-motion at the end. Speaking of farm animals, Democrat Matt Varilek compares Congress to a herd of cattle and says sometimes it takes "a little prodding to get results."

UT-04: Republican Mia Love goes hyper-literal, featuring a potted tree with dollar bills for leaves (remember, money doesn't actually grow on them!) and her slicing through a fat piece of red caution tape with a pair of scissors.

WV-03: Dem Rep. Nick Rahall says he "stood up to the Obama EPA" when "coal mining jobs were threatened." He also wants "big corporations and Wall Street millionaires" to "pay their fair share."

HMP: The House Majority PAC is going big with a six-district, $2.2 million ad blitz. Their targets: CA-07, IA-04, NC-07, NY-18, OH-06, and WI-07. You can find all the ads at the link.

Other Races:

Arizona: Well, lookee here: Perhaps veteran blowhard and Republican birther-in-chief Joe Arpaio's big mouth might actually be exacting a toll on his political fortunes. A new poll, from Switchboard Communications on behalf of his opponent (Democrat Paul Penzone) shows Arpaio with only a slight edge over his challenger. In the poll, Arpaio is at just under 45 percent, with Penzone at 39 percent. A potential saving grace for the loathsome Arpaio: the presence of an independent candidate (Mike Stauffer), who is drawing 8 percent of the vote. Also of note: Arpaio's unfavorables are just shy of 50 percent. (Steve Singiser)

PA-St. House: The Dems lost control of the state House in Pennsylvania in 2010 (hence the terribly gerrymandered U.S. House map we got), and they need to flip 14 seats to re-take control this year. That sounds like a lot, but the chamber has 203 members and small constituencies, so there's always the potential for lots of churn. PoliticsPA has a helpful preview of the 10 most competitive races; unfortunately, there are still a number of Dem-held seats on the list, mostly in red-trending western Pennsylvania with retiring Dem old-timers. (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

Ads: I'm still trying to track down YouTube accounts for a number of House campaigns. (And I've already gotten a bunch of help—thanks!) My remaining list is at the link. If you know of any, please post `em in comments. Thank you!

DCCC: Here's a big honking independent expenditure report from the DCCC, totaling over $2 million across 16 districts. Click through for the details.

Minnesota: PPP's latest batch of Minnesota miscellany has some disheartening numbers on the issue of gay marriage. As you may know, a proposed constitutional amendment outlawing same-sex marriage will go before voters this November. PPP finds 48% favoring the ban and 47% opposing it, which is down from 49-43 opposition in June. The generic legislative ballot has also tightened considerably, going from a wide 48-36 Democratic lead in June to just a 47-44 edge now.

Polltopia: PPP is conducting a boatload of polls this weekend, in Maine, Massachusetts, Virginia and Wisconsin. As per usual, Tom Jensen is looking for question suggestions in all of these states, so head on over to PPP's website and post your ideas at the link.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  If PPP Ever Gets Around To Releasing That MN Poll. (0+ / 0-)

    I bet it's gonna show a tighter race than expected given what everything else in the sample suggests.....again, assuming they ever release it.  This is the sixth consecutive day it's been teased about.

    •  They asked if people wanted that or MT first (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      People wanted Montana. Even if it is tight the state isn't on any radar and SurveyUSA, never particularly kind to Obama in Minnesota, just said plus ten.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 05:43:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  In fact, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        the very limited spending that had been done by the Koch brothers PAC was discontinued two weeks ago in favor of bigger spending in Wisconsin.  Off the radar with purpose.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

        by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 05:50:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I doubt it. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, Mark27, LordMike, askew

      I think they would have said something on Twitter already if there was an interesting result.  Their releasing the gay marriage result before the presidential result was unusual, and suggests to me that was the more interesting result.  

      Obama won by 10 in 2008 with a 40D/36R electorate.  He's probably up by close to that with PPP's 35D/32R electorate.  We should see today, though.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

      by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 05:48:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  6th day? (0+ / 0-)

      It went into the field 3 days ago.

  •  Carmona still thinks there's a future... (0+ / 0-)

    ...for Democrats trying to go third-way to reclaim Republican seats.  There isn't!  It's never, ever, ever worked to my recollection.  What makes him think he'll be the first?  And if he says crap like that our of actual conviction, then even worse for him.  We don't need another Senator pissing into the tent.  McCaskill is plenty by her own bad self.

    Romney '12: Berlusconi without the sex and alcohol!

    by Rich in PA on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 05:37:13 AM PDT

  •  We need a Va poll (0+ / 0-)

    The Gravis poll has Romney and Allen up 5 and it's possible Romney is up in Va. They have inundated Va with ads and Rove has been attacking Kaine non stop for months with no push back.
    I assume it is still a tossup, hard to see Romney doing so well during an Obama bounce. This Gravis firm dropped from nowhere and is being given to much credit by pollsters. then again since 2008 Va has been voting like the old days for republicans.

  •  McMahon (R) LYING in her ADS?!?!?! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    I'm shocked, I say .... totally SHOCKED!  (that the media is actually calling her on it)

    "Mitt Romney has more positions than the Kama Sutra." -- me "Social justice is love, made public." -- Cornel West

    by billlaurelMD on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 05:41:26 AM PDT

    •  I hope it's enough to make a difference (0+ / 0-)

      I don't like that McMahon was able to secure the Independent slot.

      Our best shot at this is Obama's coattails.

      "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

      by xsonogall on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 05:59:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No, not really. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        Obama's margin of victory in the state will probably help, but it's probably not going to be what carries us to victory.

        I think Murphy is the favored to win. Simply by running a not awful campaign, McMahon would come closer than any standard Republican. That she is learning from her mistakes last time would make it closer still. But that isn't going to be enough to bring her to victory.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:58:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Don't forget (0+ / 0-)

        Murphy also has the Working Parties line.

  •  Wait, what? (0+ / 0-)
    Like her Democratic opponent Chris Murphy, Republican Linda McMahon’s name will appear twice on the ballot in November, once as a Republican and once as an Independent.
    Is Murphy also an independent? Or do they mean for his house seat?

    I don't like McMahon's ruse here as an "independent." sounds like bad news to me.

    "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

    by xsonogall on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 05:42:57 AM PDT

    •  she will be the Independent Party nominee as well (5+ / 0-)

      for the Senate race. (Connecticut allows what's called fusion voting.)

      Chris Murphy will be both on the Democratic and the Working Families Party line.

      •  Oh Chris Murphy is on twice as a Senate candidate. (0+ / 0-)

        ...on the ballot then? That's all I was wondering about.

        Working families, is that a party?

        "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

        by xsonogall on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:04:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  A little explanation is in order here (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        xsonogall

        In CT we have an "Independent" party as opposed to independent voters. If you register to vote and don't indicate a party you are listed as an "Unaffiliated" or "UA" voter.

        •  Okay (0+ / 0-)

          So how big a deal do you think it is for McMahon to be the standard bearer for the Rs and the Is? Is this "Virgil Goode Getting On the Ballot in Virginia" level type of bad for us?

          "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

          by xsonogall on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:10:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It shouldn't cut into Murphy's voters, (0+ / 0-)

            but many low-info voters here will see "Independent" and think "That's me" and pull that lever.

            •  Ugh. Not the answer I wanted to hear (0+ / 0-)

              Need to bring McMahon's favorables down a lot by November to lessen the impact of those low info voters. Or hope there are enough Dems out there to counter it... I'm just a bit wary of the state that kept bringing Joe Lieberman back, they likely have a strong "Independent" streak in them.

              "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

              by xsonogall on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:32:21 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yeah, UA voters outnumber R&D combined (0+ / 0-)

                Bringing Linda's favorables down should be the most fruitful path. She's already in attack mode, right from the drop. Her attacks are lies or at worst, distortions of the truth and her personal and business history is target rich, complete with exploited workers, drug abuse, violence, graft.....
                She needs to be attacked, truthfully, from every possible angle to build up a conventional wisdom.

  •  Esquire / Yahoo Poll: Obama 50 Romney 46 (7+ / 0-)

    among likely voters.  Obama up 11 among registered voters (52 to 41).

    This Esquire/Yahoo! Poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Sept. 7-10, 2012, among a random national sample of 1,002 adults.
    http://www.esquire.com/...
  •  RAS MO Pres Romney 48 Obama 45... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Paleo, MetroGnome, LordMike, KingofSpades
    •  Link (0+ / 0-)

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 05:50:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I have to say I think Ras has got MO right (0+ / 0-)

        Romney may be a little further ahead than that, but not by much, and if this was taken just last night this may be right on target. His senate poll yesterday also seemed dead on to me.

        •  RAS to release Polls for OH & FL today..... (0+ / 0-)

          FL at 1pm and OH at 2pm

        •  Rasmussen Rules (8+ / 0-)

          Rule # 1 - Never take Rasmussen seriously.
          Rule # 2 - Never take Rasmussen seriously.
          Rule # 3 - If you find yourself beginning to take Rasmussen seriously, refer to Rules # 1 and 2.

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

          by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:07:05 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  No, they have it wrong (0+ / 0-)

          Mason-Dixon had it right, Obama's down high single-digits and will lose by that much.  He'll underperform himself last time and also Kerry.

          Obama would play in Missouri if it was 3 or close to it.  They have the money to do so, and it's a valuable state to stretch the map.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:48:04 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  The thing is, if Ras was right, (0+ / 0-)

          could Obama get to 50.1 (or even 49.95) percent to ensure victory? In a lot of states, Missouri included, I think his base is stronger than others do, but it might be hard to get him over the hump in order to win.

          We'll know in the next week or so, I think, if OFA decides it wants to make a play for Missouri at this point in the game.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:02:31 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  This proves the McCaskill/Akin poll was a fraud (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mark27

      Basically Ras needed a heavy Dem sample to skew the senate race findings.  Romney up 8 here makes the senate race probably tied - but the GOP establishment is still trying to get Akin to drop out by showing he can't win.

      We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

      by Jacoby Jonze on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:12:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Siena NY-01 - Bishop 52, Altschuler 39 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Paleo, bumiputera, sapelcovits, itskevin

    http://www.siena.edu/...

    Good numbers.  Presidential race is tied (Obama won by three in 2008), so a very realistic sample.

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 05:52:27 AM PDT

    •  Siena NY-24: tied up at 43 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, itskevin

      http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/...

      In case people missed it in the earlier thread.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 05:55:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Cook has made some Senate Rating Changes yesterday (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      spiderdem, LordMike, itskevin

      NM-SEN

      from Toss Up to Lean D

      IN-SEN

      from Lean R to Toss Up

      CT-SEN

      from Lean D to Toss Up

      and

      AZ-SEN

      from Likely R to Lean R.

      •  Other than IN I think he is repub leaning (0+ / 0-)

        NM should be likely D, CT still lean D, and AZ could be a tossup although lean R is not unreasonable.

        Great to see IN as a tossup.

        •  Arizona is not a tossup (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingTag, sawolf, SLDemocrat

          Lean R is right.  Hell, I had it likely R myself until the last PPP poll, which I kinda accept because the 9-point Obama deficit looked exactly right to me.  But I still think Carmona is down.

          I won't buy tossup until Carmona is polling above 45 and still within MoE.

          Indiana is closer to a tossup to me, and it's eye-opening Charlie calls it that now.  He's not that aggressive in going against a state's partisan lean, especially when the lean works to make the President unpopular in the state.

          I would still call Indiaan tossup/tilt R based on Donnelly not breaking out above 45, same rule as I apply to Carmona.  Show me you're tied when undecideds are down to single-digits, and I think you're really in it to the end.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:54:01 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  So Hawaii is still a tossup???!!! (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, itskevin, askew

        I'll take a look, but Cook has gone off the rails if even now he has Lingle an even bet or close to it.

        She never was, it was misguided a year ago for Charlie to call it a tossup, and it was laughable by earlier this year.  Now, it shows breathtaking ignorance of horse race politics, the exact opposite extreme of Charlie's reputation.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:50:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Don't like the CT one... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mark27

        That means he's seeing some info that isn't good for us.  We need to invest in this race, pronto...

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:02:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's just what the DSCC is doing. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          In fact, wasn't it there last week?

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:40:49 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  So, they've only figured this out now? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    xsonogall, LordMike
    And either way, it shows that national Democrats are taking the McMahon threat seriously.
    The polling has shown this race close now for at least a month. I hear a lot of talk about Murphy is supposed to be some sort terrific campaigner, but yet it would appear that someone is asleep at the wheel. The alarm bells should have been going off weeks ago. I know McMahon has a ton of money, but someone really needs to wake up here. This shouldn't even be close, in spite of McMahon's carpet bombing.
    •  The powers that be... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, NorthBronxDem

      ...had better start paying attention to New England in general.  Murphy needs help, Cicilline in RI, Warren in MA...there are a lot of flawed candidates and campaigns in these parts.  If they want Blue, they're going to have to work for it.

      "Nonsense!" said Alice, very loudly and decidedly, and the Queen was silent.

      by RIposte on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:18:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'd be more alarmed if they weren't (0+ / 0-)

      doing something.

      Races get close. McMahon has spent a lot of money, $15 million, and that's just for this cycle. In total, she's spent about $65 million so far, adding together what she spent last cycle. She's also running a more positive/less abrasive campaign than last time. And while Murphy is a better fit for the state, she's not running as Jim DeMint in Connecticut. All of those things, plus the fact that Murphy isn't an incumbent and isn't even that well known statewide, make me unsurprised it is close.

      But she's not polling 15 points ahead. She's been ahead in exactly two polls, one of which was from Rasmussen, in the last six months, if not longer.

      The other thing to consider is that the electorate will be far friendlier to Democrats than it was in 2010, when Malloy and even Blumenthal lost Independents but managed to win. Malloy lost them by about 20 points, yet he still won.

      As I said yesterday, if the electorate is at least Democratic as it was in 2010 (think about that for a moment) and Murphy gets 45 percent of Independents, he will win easily. He can lose more Democrats than he would gain Republicans and still win pretty easily.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:14:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Beating McMahon is a must.... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bush Bites, CwV, xsonogall, LordMike

    Forget about Linda McMahon the person and think about beating her from a keeping the Senate standpoint. We need a filibuster proof Senate.

    Plus, beating McMahon is beating "Citizens United" back as well.

    Defeating Linda McMahon is just as important as getting Elizabeth Warren elected in Massachusetts...

  •  MI House: Speaker in trouble (7+ / 0-)

    MIRS is a paywall publication, so I can't get the link, but courtesy of Michigan Liberal, it looks as if Michigan's sitting Speaker of the House may be headed toward defeat because of an election fraud scandal he's involved in.  If the Dems can make this an issue in each swing district, they get the state house back:

    House Speaker Jase BOLGER's (R-Marshall) lead over Scotts Democrat Bill FARMER in the 63rd District is 51.5 to 48.5 percent, within the margin of error, according to a MIRS/Practical Political Consulting (PPC) poll of 580 likely 63rd House District voters.
    It's crazy, because not only is Bill Farmer "some dude", but the state Dems haven't even been running any media on this besides the free media they get on local television interviews and such.  If Bolger is in trouble in his fairly red district, districts we thought weren't in play are in play.  And, with Obama starting to run away with this, here, things are starting to shape up.
  •  I Blame Bill Clinton for The Death Of Truth (0+ / 0-)

    "I did not. Have. Sexual relations.  With that woman, Ms. Lewinsky."

    With that indignant finger wagging right in our faces on TV, Bill Clinton ushered in an era in which political commercials use film ad tactics.*

    *Film ad tactics:  A critic sees the film and says, "If I was allowed to say only that 'This is the best film I've ever seen' or 'This is the worst film I've ever seen," I'd say it's the worst film I've ever seen."  The full page ad in the paper quotes the critic:  "This is the best film I've ever seen."

  •  Siena NY-24 - Buerkle 43, Maffei 43 (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.siena.edu/...

    Not as good as NY-01, but I'll take an incumbent at 43%.  Not understanding Buerkle's staying power in this district.  She is one of the most conservative members of Congress, completely misplaced in a blue seat.  Obama up 19 in the sample, won by 14 in 2008.  

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 05:57:15 AM PDT

  •  The Northeast is really letting us down lately. (0+ / 0-)

    Two Repubs in maine, one in Mass, now one in CT?

    Ugh.

    Repubs started up the car, hit the throttle and sent it over the cliff, and now they're complaining that the black guy hasn't fixed it fast enough.

    by Bush Bites on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 05:59:50 AM PDT

    •  In January 2013, (8+ / 0-)

      there will be one Republican in Maine and none in Massachussets or Connecticut.  The fundamentals are overwhelmingly against the Republican candidates in these races.  If our candidates run even semi-competent races from here to the finish, they will win.

      Remember all the ONOZ about CA-Sen and CA-Gov in 2010?  Same thing.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

      by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:04:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If Obama wins Reelection the GOP is likely to win. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        OGGoldy

        the Senate in 2014.

        •  I agree with that. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          OGGoldy

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

          by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:22:12 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  and you were so astute with you other observation! (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            redrelic17

            you are very wrong to say this.

            •  Holding The Senate in 2014.... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lina, OGGoldy

              .....requires the Dems to hold seats in Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, South Dakota, North Carolina, and West Virginia, several of which are likely to see incumbents Democrats retiring.  You're aware of this right?

              •  Here's something I compiled on 2014. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Mark27

                It's so tough.  Worse than I had thought from memory.

                16 of 20 Republican Targets < D+5:

                AK (R+13), LA (R+10), AR (R+9), SD (R+9), WV (R+8), MT (R+7), NC (R+4), VA (R+2), CO (R+0), IA (D+1), MN (D+2), NH (D+2), NM (D+2), MI (D+4), NJ (D+4), OR (D+4)

                1 of 13 Democratic Targets < R+5:

                ME (D+5)

                White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

                by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:46:48 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Forgot About Montana..... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  spiderdem

                  Harry Reid better enjoy his gavel.

                  •  How about instead of complaining (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    EcosseNJ, bumiputera, lina, askew

                    about how damn difficult it is, we:

                    1. tell our incumbents that have no later than September 2013 to decide whether they are running?

                    2. tell our incumbents that if they are running, they must make at least two trips per month to the red areas of their states until the Republican primaries are over, at which point it turns into three or four trips?

                    3. work on finding candidates for relatively promising races (the key word being relative) in Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, and Texas?

                    4. tell the state party chairs in the rest of the states that if they allow a debacle like we just saw in Tennessee (where a conservative activist ended up as the Democratic nominee), they will be stripped of their jobs?

                    5. tell them that they until July of 2013 to have at least five potential candidates for their states, no matter how marginal (i.e. the city councilman of Skitback, Alabama), ready?

                    6. tell these same start party chairs that if they will receive at least a dollar for dollar match for money raised to build up the infrastructure of our parties in these states?

                    7. tell the eventual candidates that they will received at least  $2 for every $1 they raise, up until August/September of 2014?

                    8. make sure that all of our guys running have access to a competent, seasoned campaign staff, partially if not entirely financed by the national party?

                    In other words, why don't we shut the fuck up about how hard is going to be and work on being aggressively on offense rather than on defense? We'll still lose most if not all of these races, but hey, maybe we end up winning one. More importantly, though, we'll be building the party for the future.

                    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                    by bjssp on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:34:28 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I don't think they'll listen to me. (4+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Mark27, bumiputera, DCCyclone, OGGoldy

                      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

                      by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:37:15 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Maybe if you and I team up... (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        lina

                        How are you at tap dancing? I mean, who doesn't like tap dancing?

                        Seriously now, do you like my list of suggestions? I'm not sure how some of our incumbents would react, but I think matching fund raising like that would be helpful to getting some of these people on their feet. It could also help to pull relatively good candidates into races. And if it works even better than I imagine it might, I don't think it'll be that draining on the DNC/DSCC's finances, given how small some of these states are.

                        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                        by bjssp on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:44:52 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Some good ideas in there. (0+ / 0-)

                          I suspect the Dem establishment already does a lot of this carrot and stick stuff.  Perhaps not enough.

                          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

                          by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:51:34 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  I'm guessing it doesn't. (0+ / 0-)

                            Not to sound like I have my head too far up my own ass, but what I suggested above seems very basic and simple to implement. Yet, we still end up with disasters like the Senate race in Tennessee. Also, it's not as if this would be privileged, right? Eventually, even if it was only through disclosure reports, we'd see something in the numbers, or so I would think.

                            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                            by bjssp on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:57:38 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                •  It's probably far less pessimistic then you make (0+ / 0-)

                  out.
                  ============
                  16 of 20 Republican Targets < D+5:

                  AK (R+13), LA (R+10), AR (R+9), SD (R+9), WV (R+8), MT (R+7), NC (R+4), VA (R+2), CO (R+0)

                  1 of 13 Democratic Targets < R+5:

                  ME (D+5)
                  ==============
                  WV could be okay IF Rockefeller stays
                  NC trending blue statewide voting
                  Colorado presently R=0 and trending blue
                  Arizona, will McCain retire?
                  Montana competitive in statewide elections, ditto NC
                  Alaska-Democrat has incombancy.
                  Virginia trending blue.

                  And it would be a two-year GOP senate edge anyway, swept away in 2016, with little legislation done 2015-2016. Supreme Court appointments would be a pain if GOP controlled senate, though.

                  "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

                  by TofG on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:19:48 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Not Arizona....Arkansas...As In Mark Pryor..... (0+ / 0-)

                    ....and while North Carolina may be trending blue, it's a tall order to expect that a midterm electorate in NC will resemble the blue-trending Presidential election electorate.

                  •  They will just need 2-4 (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    lina

                    even if Dems escape 2012 unscathed.  I think we might have a better shot in WV if Rockefeller did retire, although I think we lose it either way.  A recent poll that looked very good for Dems overall had Rockefeller trailing Capito by 4 in 2014.  He is far to the left of the state at this point, and Capito is the Republican's best hope and is waiting for that race.

                    Even in a neutral environment, I would expect us to lose AK, LA, SD (w/o Johnson), WV, and MT.  NC I would expect to be very competitive as well.  I think we'll probably win the others, but could lose many more in a wave.  I do not expect us to gain any in a neutral environment.

                    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

                    by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:31:58 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  We have a chance to gain seats this year (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      abgin

                      so I think talk of losing in 2014 is pointless this early, especially since the repub brand could very well continue to erode between now and then.

                      •  No amount of speculation (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        bumiputera, supercereal

                        is ever too much for me.  I have already begun speculating about 2016.  I like that speculation a lot better than 2014.

                        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

                        by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:46:14 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  As the wise woman (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          spiderdem

                          Peggy Noonan once said, "Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to."

                          I can't remember where I saw someone tell me that they had a class with Peggy Noonan and she acted like a complete loon, as if she were drunk, the entire time. Maybe it was here, but I am not sure.

                          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                          by bjssp on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:50:11 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

        •  Way to premature to say that n/t (0+ / 0-)
          •  They could hold it (0+ / 0-)

            but the map is SO tough and if we are the "in" party, history says Republicans will gain seats.  They won't need many even if we hold on to the Senate this time.

            White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

            by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:25:15 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  But if things go great between now and then (0+ / 0-)

              then being the party in power doesn't hurt.

              •  Could happen. (0+ / 0-)

                Happened in 2002 in both houses, but Republicans were still on a sugar high from 9/11.  Not discounting it, but boy is the map tough.  We have so many red seats to defend it's not even funny.  

                White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

                by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:29:19 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  And Mitch McConnell (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  bumiputera

                  is probably our best target barring retirements.  Really tough map.

                  White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

                  by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:33:09 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  It really is... (0+ / 0-)

                    Tim Johnson (SD) is probably retiring, could be replaced by Mike Rounds. In fact I'm hearing Rounds will run.

                    Alaska = if Parnell runs Begich is in trouble.

                    Arkansas & Louisiana = Pryor and Landrieu saying they'll run again but GOP has deep bench especially in LA

                    NC (Hagan) could be tough too

                    And then there could be possible Retirements for WV (Rockefeller), IA (Harkin) and MI (Levin)

      •  Wait, what? (0+ / 0-)

        You think Warren is a lock to beat Brown with a "semi-competent" race?  That Murphy will do the same?  NOT the same thing as 2010, not by a long shot.

        "Nonsense!" said Alice, very loudly and decidedly, and the Queen was silent.

        by RIposte on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:20:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Why yes, yes I do. (0+ / 0-)

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

          by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:22:01 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You're more confident than me (0+ / 0-)

            I sense the stories about Warren's ad campaign not working probably are right.  That's specific and "smells right" to me, not the kind of ignorant hand-wringing interested observers sometimes have.  I ignore Dave Catanese relying so much on sparse public polling to write stories that she's down, but there are other tea leaves of real issues.

            On Murphy, it's obvious at this point that he, too, isn't selling himself or attacking McMahon effectively.

            I do think Murphy ends up winning, but I suspect Warren is a tossup heading into election day and no better than 50-50.  She never did build on her early momentum.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:02:18 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I do not think Warren will win by much, (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Christopher Walker, DCCyclone

              but I am very confident she will win.  The fundamentals are just overwhelming there, and I do not believe Brown can overcome them on personality and faux centrism.  I feel almost exactly the same way about Rick Berg in ND as I do Warren.

              White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

              by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:21:55 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  My bigger worry is that the machines in the state (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              aren't turned on for her, so to speak.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:36:39 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, "not the same things as 2010, by a long shot" (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack

          This will be a much easier environment for Democrats to win in states where the fundamentals favor them.

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

          by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:23:17 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You're not from around here, are you? n/t (0+ / 0-)

            "Nonsense!" said Alice, very loudly and decidedly, and the Queen was silent.

            by RIposte on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:38:29 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  From around where? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              tietack

              I'm from Florida as my sig says, if that's what you mean.  If you mean DKE, I've been a regular commenter here and on its predecessor for roughly six or seven years.

              And to borrow from Congressman Barney Frank, "on what planet do you spend most of your time?"

              White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

              by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:41:09 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Well I'm from RI (0+ / 0-)

              and I have no idea what you're talking about, so maybe elaborating might help.

              Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

              by sapelcovits on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:14:54 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Did I sleep through the election? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:16:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Did New Hampshire move out of NE? NT (0+ / 0-)
      •  Anybody can miss Canada, all tucked away (0+ / 0-)

        down there...

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:46:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  WA "likely voters" (0+ / 0-)

    Tough to determine that in an all-mail state. Hard to imagine McKenna does better than he did losing the Top Two primary; he got only 35% in King County, roughly generic R, rather than "swing" voters going for him as Atty General. Look for the prez numbers to be roughly the same as '08, and Cantwell is cruising in the Senate race against a "some guy" opponent. Downballot, looks like Republicans may be swapping state auditor for sec of state as their sole statewide office.

  •  Quinnipiac NY: Obama 62-34 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, itskevin, KingofSpades

    Right at the 2008 level(62) and 1 point better in the margin.

    Skeptical of coattails in this state after 2010, but who knows, a presidential race could be different.

    link.

  •  You'd like to think Arpaio would be dumped. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker, JGibson

    If not strictly for the birther beliefs, just for the fact that he spends so much time trying to get in front of the national TV cameras instead of doing his job.

    I'd feel pretty ripped off if I was a taxpayer paying his salary.

    Repubs started up the car, hit the throttle and sent it over the cliff, and now they're complaining that the black guy hasn't fixed it fast enough.

    by Bush Bites on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:04:38 AM PDT

  •  Linda McMahon ads are everywhere! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, itskevin, CTMET

    In fact, the ad literally, directly, above this particular post for me this morning was an anti-Chris Murphy ad claiming that he wasn't being honest.

    McMahon's ads are everywhere from here, to HP to Haaretz. Our mailboxes are full of her anti-Murphy flyers. I call her "Mom" like the character on Futurama who is all warm and nice to the public, but, behind closed doors, is really a vicious and ruthless competitor.

    Chris Murphy doesn't have $50 Million to spend and it's making a difference in the CT race...unfortunately.

    •  Does he have any money??? (0+ / 0-)

      It seemed like he did spend during the primary. Since then... crickets.... while Linda is all over...

      The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy;the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness

      by CTMET on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 10:12:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks for frontpaging CT's dilemma (4+ / 0-)

    This race has been bubbling for months and Linda has all the advantages. Even though CT is "blue" we have a weak Democratic Party and a very determined minority GOP. They have saddled us with Republican Governors (up until the most recent, Go Dan Malloy) and made it so that the most progressive candidates are considered nonstarters due to the aggressive GOP opposition tactics.
    We will need a lot more help than the DSCC is coming in with, their ad buy is 1/100th of what Linda has spent!
    So keep this race prominent, we need all the awareness and word-of-mouth that we can generate.
    Thank you all for helping.

    •  Deploy the Clinton (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      Maybe Bill can campaign on Murphy's behalf at some point?  Maybe even Obama.  We need something to turn this on its face...  On the one hand it sounds hopeless because of all the money McMahon's got...  On the other hand, it's a bit hopeful if the race is still this close with McMahon spending this much....

      You live there.  How engaged are people?  Is this a true tossup, or are you feeling it's leaning closer one way right now?

      "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

      by xsonogall on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:00:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not real engaged yet (0+ / 0-)

        The primaries were a snooze and Murphy has very little money to advertise, at least in my end of the state (I'm on the eastern end of the shoreline, the less populated end, Murphy and McMahon are both from the other end, the NY burbs).
        One disturbing thing I notice is that the "personalized" ads online, like here at DKos even, are running McMahon ads slamming Murphy, not mentioning Linda, It looks like even Lefty sites are dissing Murphy as a result. I know that DKos has no control over what ads play on their site, but damm!

        •  I've been seeing Republican ads here a lot (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera

          most notably Scott Walker ads in the runup to the recall. I think they just target "political sites" even if they are the wrong party.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

          by fearlessfred14 on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:57:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That, or Chip Cravaack (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            fearlessfred14

            really is Nancy Pelosi's number one target and just wants everyone to know in case he goes missing.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 08:18:15 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  It sounds like McMahon's working real hard (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingTag, LordMike, CwV

          with that playbook.  Pitch perfect.  Negative campaign on the opponent, sell yourself as an independent (hell, look, I'm even on the ballot as the Independent!).

          From the outside, it's looking real bad right now.  I hope the Dems unleash something on McMahon fast.  I'm amazed that Blumenthal beat her barrage in 2010 given how, in my opinion anyway, uncharismatic he is and how much money she spent there.  It's not surprising that Dems were treating this lightly in 2012 with Obama's coattails.  I just hope there's enough time to keep it from biting us in the arse.

          "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

          by xsonogall on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 08:17:23 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  If the big dog is ever home in Chappaqua,NY thats (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera

        a very short ride over to the Nutmeg State..... I'll give him a lift if his car is in the shop.... I'll even buy lunch.

        The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy;the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness

        by CTMET on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 10:13:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Surprise, suprise. RAss has Romney up 1 (4+ / 0-)

    47-46.  This POS never fails to disappoint.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 06:38:01 AM PDT

  •  Rasmussen has it Romney +1 today (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone

    Finding a total unwind of Obama's bounce that no-one else seems to have detected.

    He also has a dip in Obama's approval to 49-51, though that's still considerably better than the Rasmussenworld average on approval.

    Just don't blame the messenger!

  •  OH-Init. (13+ / 0-)

    "Ohio Supreme Court says ballot summary for redistricting issue is inaccurate"

    http://www.cleveland.com/...

    Court orders the Ballot Board to come up with new language.

    28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

    by bumiputera on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:19:12 AM PDT

  •  3 Electoral College members may pass on GOP ticket (8+ / 0-)

    http://m.apnews.com/...

    At least three Republican electors say they may not support their party's presidential ticket when the Electoral College meets in December to formally elect the new president, escalating tensions within the GOP and adding a fresh layer of intrigue to the final weeks of the White House race.

    The electors - all are supporters of former GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul - told The Associated Press they are exploring options should Mitt Romney win their states. They expressed frustration at how Republican leaders have worked to suppress Paul's conservative movement and his legion of loyal supporters.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 07:23:22 AM PDT

    •  Not that it would help (0+ / 0-)

      given the current makeup of the House, unless of course these 3 were willing to go all the way and support the re-election of the President.

    •  in which case Mitt would need 271 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, itskevin

      rather than 269. Not that they would do it if it actually made the difference, but I like seeing Romney take friendly fire, and it's been coming from a lot of directions recently.

    •  I guess they aren't from states (0+ / 0-)

      that penalize disobedient electors?

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 10:38:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Chuck Todd intriguingly tweets... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera

      ...he is "convinced we'll have LOTS of these electors."

      Um, I'm guessing he's also unintentionally revealing he thinks Obama wins.  The only potentially faithless electors are on the GOP side, and they're not going to withhold support for Romney if it costs him an electoral college victory--massive pressure to get in line or they will be mud.

      Along those lines, Gore had a faithless elector in 2000, and I have a story about that.  It was a D.C. elector who withheld her vote for Gore to protest D.C. lacking full representation in Congress.  Of course it didn't matter ot the outcome on that case.  But her position on the D.C. Democratic committee was an office elected through the regular primaries (but, of course, not the general election), and the next time she was on the ballot, she was defeated in a landslide.  It's unheard of for these people to be unseated in primaries, and it was because she was a faithless elector.  I was in D.C. and voted in that primary, and voted against her specifically for that reason.

      So blowback is real.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 12:02:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Other endorsements to watch (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Davidsfr, LordMike, itskevin

    So the Fraternal Order of Police didnt endorse anyone. Arguably a bigger problem for Romney since they usually endorses Republicans for president, and he seemed to actively court their vote.

    Here are two sets of endorsements to watch for:

    1. Newspapers. Ok, so editorial board endorsements dont really mean much anymore(did they ever?). But I'm sure the media(and the respective campaigns) will highlight any endorsements that went for Obama in 08 but Romney in 12 and for McCain in 08 but Obama now. The biggest one, that I'm sure the Romney campaign will talk about is the Chicago Tribune. They endorsed Obama in 08, in a rare presidential endorsement for a Dem. If they flip to Romney, we will hear about how Obama has lost his hometown paper.

    2. Any Dem or Republicans endorsing the opposing party candidate. We've seen Artur Davis and Charlie Crist get some attention and speaking spots at the party conventions. It will be interesting to see if there are any similar endorsements. Some conservative Dems ex-reps(or even a current one) endorsing Romney, or some GOP foreign policy people(Colin Powell, being the biggest) endorsing Obama.

    •  As far as newspaper endorsements go, (0+ / 0-)

      I think it's only going to be a problem if many of the ones that endorsed Obama last time abandon him this time, especially if they savage him. It'll be a small problem, perhaps nothing to worry about at all, but if it does come to that, it'll give the Republicans a talking point.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 08:20:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The only endorsement that matters... (0+ / 0-)

      ...Colin Powell.

      There are a lot of ordinary voters in the mushy middle who love Colin Powell and will pay attention to what he says and does.

      But I'm guessing he decides not to endorse at all (and quietly votes for Obama).

      Newspaper editorials and other media endorsements don't matter.

      Party crossovers won't include anyone who matters beyond perhaps Powell.  I suppose Joe Lieberman would make a lot of news and noise, but he's a media darling and not a voter darling......contrast to Colin Powell who really is a voter darling.  And I don't think he endorses Romney...with McCain not only could he stick a needle in "his" party's eye, but McCain also was genuinely a personal friend.  Lieberman doesn't know or care about Mitt Romney.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 11:46:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  McGlaughlin (R) FL Poll - Romney 50, Obama 47 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, askew

    http://miamiherald.typepad.com/...

    Improvement from a 5-point Romney lead last month.  1,000,000 grains of salt on this Republican poll.

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 08:21:17 AM PDT

  •  RI-gay marriage (5+ / 0-)

    State House Speaker Gordon Fox says he will forge ahead with calling a gay marriage vote in 2013: http://blogs.wpri.com/...

    Gay marriage can probably pass the House. The bigger question is the Senate. Supposedly, Senate Judiciary Chairman Mike McCaffrey and Senate President Teresa Paiva-Weed haven't explicitly ruled out a vote on gay marriage, though both are opposed. The bigger question is, can it pass? Considering that RI's super-watered-down civil unions law passed by a mere 21-16 margin, I'm a bit nervous. Then again, my state senator, Rhoda Perry, voted against it from the left, so that's encouraging. Dawson Hodgson, a pro-gay marriage Republican senator, also voted No, but I'm not sure if that was from the left or if he hadn't evolved back then.

    Looking at the roll call (warning: contains right-wing drivel, scroll to bottom for roll call) I assume that at the bare minimum, McCaffrey, Walaska, Jabour, and Paiva-Weed would switch from Yes to No if gay marriage were to come up. On the other hand, Ottiano, Hodgson, and possibly Kettle would be all Yes, as would Gayle Goldin (Perry's successor) and Adam Satchell (who defeated Michael Pinga). If Ryan Pearson can unseat Bethany Moura (R), that's another flipped vote. Of course, I could be severely underestimating the number of Yes to No flips. Either way it's possible, but who knows...

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 08:32:34 AM PDT

    •  By the sound of it the 2 yes/no votes wash. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      since 2011 Obama came out in support of it, not sure if that will flip any votes but we also have the 2012 elections which should help us get our margins back in some legislatures which might be the deciding vote here.  Any insight on RI State senate elections in 2012 Sapel?

      •  Ted Nesi knows much better than I (0+ / 0-)

        I know in SD-19 Ryan Pearson is going to rematch with Bethany Moura. It looks like in redistricting, SD-19 went from a Lincoln/Cumberland district to pure Cumby. I'm not sure if that changes it a lot from a partisan perspective, but Cumby is where Doherty is from so I hope he doesn't have coattails. Either way, Pearson's 2010 loss was super narrow (51.5-48.5) so hopefully in 2012 he should be able to send Moura packing.

        then there's SD-09 where Adam Satchell primaried out conservadem Michael Pinga. As before it continues to be more or less coterminous with West Warwick. I don't think Pinga ever had trouble here before so hopefully Satchell won't either.

        honestly, there's really not that much to gain in the general. RI is such a one-party state that most of our gains had to be in the primary.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 08:49:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  also (0+ / 0-)

          DaPonte and Crowley, both of whom voted for civil unions, have (since Obama's announcement) said they are both for gay marriage. So unless they get fussy about religious exemptions, those are two votes that shouldn't flip away from us.

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 08:51:02 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Nate Silver today on Obama narrowing (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, bythesea, KingofSpades, askew

    the voter enthusiasm gap:

    But in general, there’s more reason to believe that a shift is permanent rather than temporary when it brings the numbers closer into line with historical norms, as it has in this case.
    and so if this holds up it changes his expectations about the general election:
    if Democrats can keep the enthusiasm gap to its traditional value of about one and a half percentage points, rather than three, that could make quite a lot of difference. Before the conventions our forecast model had generally shown Mr. Obama as a favorite by about two and a half percentage points; now it projects him to win by about four. That’s consistent with what you’d get if the enthusiasm gap had been narrowed by a point or two.
    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/...
  •  vince mcmahon will buy the election (0+ / 0-)

    yes

    •  Actually Linda's taking advice from her son (0+ / 0-)

      Shane...

      The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy;the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness

      by CTMET on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 10:20:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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