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Looks pretty, doesn't it? President Barack Obama reaching toward 50 percent, Mitt Romney struggling to get out of the mid-40s. Rasmussen is giving conservatives false hope by claiming that Romney has retaken the lead 48-47 in their daily tracker, but the dynamics of the race are firmly in Obama's favor. Let's look at the TPM polling composites in the battleground state polling:
(Note, I've removed two new and obscure polling outfits with bizarre results out of the Ohio and Florida results. Nate Silver explains why they're not credible here.)

It's been two weeks since we checked in, and the effects of the conventions still aren't fully baked into all of these results, not to mention yesterday's Romney implosion. But the movement these past two weeks is undeniable. At this point, Obama is within two points of 50 percent in every one of these states except Iowa (which hasn't been polled in three weeks, where are you Ann Selzer?), and North Carolina—the only legit battleground left in which he is losing.

And speaking of states that haven't been polled in a while, it's been nearly a month since we saw any numbers from Wisconsin. However, given that everyone is jumping in with a new ad barrage in the state, it's clear it remains competitive.

Obviously it's nice to see all that Blue up there, but what's most amazing is Romney's inability to get out of the mid-40s. He exceeds 46 percent in just five of these 12 states, and hits 48 percent in just one. His likeability problem has imposed a ceiling to his potential support, a sign that the Democratic campaign to define him in those states was a resounding success. And that battleground-state dislike of Romney is now national, as the conventions showed the rest of the country what a dick Romney is. Hence, Romney has dropped below 45 percent in the aggregate national polling, while Obama is a sliver away from 50.

This is a 332-206 electoral map for Obama. Romney needs to start flipping a lot of those states to get to 270, and he's a long way from 50 percent in most of them.

Originally posted to kos on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 11:20 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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