Skip to main content

Looks pretty, doesn't it? President Barack Obama reaching toward 50 percent, Mitt Romney struggling to get out of the mid-40s. Rasmussen is giving conservatives false hope by claiming that Romney has retaken the lead 48-47 in their daily tracker, but the dynamics of the race are firmly in Obama's favor. Let's look at the TPM polling composites in the battleground state polling:
(Note, I've removed two new and obscure polling outfits with bizarre results out of the Ohio and Florida results. Nate Silver explains why they're not credible here.)

It's been two weeks since we checked in, and the effects of the conventions still aren't fully baked into all of these results, not to mention yesterday's Romney implosion. But the movement these past two weeks is undeniable. At this point, Obama is within two points of 50 percent in every one of these states except Iowa (which hasn't been polled in three weeks, where are you Ann Selzer?), and North Carolina—the only legit battleground left in which he is losing.

And speaking of states that haven't been polled in a while, it's been nearly a month since we saw any numbers from Wisconsin. However, given that everyone is jumping in with a new ad barrage in the state, it's clear it remains competitive.

Obviously it's nice to see all that Blue up there, but what's most amazing is Romney's inability to get out of the mid-40s. He exceeds 46 percent in just five of these 12 states, and hits 48 percent in just one. His likeability problem has imposed a ceiling to his potential support, a sign that the Democratic campaign to define him in those states was a resounding success. And that battleground-state dislike of Romney is now national, as the conventions showed the rest of the country what a dick Romney is. Hence, Romney has dropped below 45 percent in the aggregate national polling, while Obama is a sliver away from 50.

This is a 332-206 electoral map for Obama. Romney needs to start flipping a lot of those states to get to 270, and he's a long way from 50 percent in most of them.

Originally posted to kos on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 11:20 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

grytpype, GainesT1958, JekyllnHyde, hester, Trendar, daninoah, Gooserock, kainah, donna in evanston, ChicDemago, Woody, Creosote, Otis29, missLotus, rebop, CoolOnion, itskevin, Alna Dem, CocoaLove, Redfire, SneakySnu, ammaloy, VexingEyes, tidalwave1, sockpuppet, TexDem, roseeriter, Ender, wdrath, tomjones, lyvwyr101, sebastianguy99, Gowrie Gal, davidkc, jrooth, liberalcheesehead, democracy inaction, citizenx, dewtx, HillaryIsMyHomegirl, Gary Norton, Overseas, jane123, sunbro, kkjohnson, Jim R, reddbierd, Reality Bites Back, Doug Goodenough, Shirl In Idaho, chicagoblueohio, myboo, dopper0189, HoundDog, kestrel9000, fromer, Shakludanto, SherriG, agnostic, bleeding heart, BB10, mapman, bear83, john07801, asilomar, Loudoun County Dem, camlbacker, LSophia, edsbrooklyn, bluehen96, Librarianmom, Rumarhazzit, uciguy30, GeorgeXVIII, exreaganite, BostonBilly, El Mito, MKinTN, TruthFreedomKindness, BobBlueMass, JaxDem, califdem, Greasy Grant, rssrai, tofumagoo, hwmnbn, noddem, glendaw271, jforests, fayea, legendmn, maggiejean, BlueBeaumontBoyz, litoralis, Discipline28, don mikulecky, followyourbliss, elziax, susan in sc, Railfan, tambora, bronxcharlie, Its the Supreme Court Stupid, leftywright, Aramis Wyler, Crabby Abbey, LOrion, rja, ericlewis0, slice, Maximilien Robespierre, kerflooey, spooks51, redandblue, EcosseNJ, Buckeye Nation, Mr MadAsHell, mikejay611, rg611, California06, trumpeter, Haf2Read, PorridgeGun, thomask, ShowMeMoBlue, BarackStarObama, SueM1121, IB JOHN, jgnyc, peregrine kate, VTCC73, blue aardvark, jack23, Auriandra, ParkRanger, stormicats, cwsmoke, TheLizardKing, pistolSO, a2nite, AreDeutz, draa, 2thanks, BusyinCA, Buckeye54, redstella, Kinak, George3, broths, Icicle68, Smoh, sparkysgal, WFBMM

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site