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Its clear Romney is on the ropes.  Its time to go for the knock-out, because we don't just want Obama to win, we want him to win big, unquestionably delivering both a mandate and down-ballot.

He needs to go up in, if not all 50 states, a large number of states he has ignored to this point.

Why?

1) The Senate.  Every state with an active Senate race (Arizona, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota) should bring positive Obama ads and invite outside groups to go negative on Romney.  The better our turn-out is, even in North Dakota, which Obama isn't winning, the better Heitkamp does.

2) The House.  Picture this:  Obama wins VA, FL, NC, OH, etc. and by the time polls close in the midwest, Obama has won those states, which with California's 55 E.V.s, make it clear he's winning.  Republicans in Mountain and Pacific time states have no incentive to turn out.  This gives us our best shot at turning several western seats to take the House, especially in California.

3) The popular vote.  Picture this:  Things don't go well, Obama manages a slight E.V. win, say, 290ish, but, because he has run up #s in the South, Romney, like Gore, has the popular vote.   Do you believe Republicans would honor this without a fight?

In extended-- more strategy.

4) Make Romney play Defense.  There seem to be 3-4 states where Romney should (and has to) win, and Obama seems competitive.

GEORGIA - recent polling has a  3-5 pt Romney lead.  With a large African American population, a base of voters whose ancestors voted for Democratic Presidents as recently as 1976 and 1992, and all sorts of creative-class/techie jobs in Atlanta, it seems Georgia could be this year's surprise.  Go on TV there, test the waters, send Obama to Atlanta.  Heck, some of the southern GA TV hits the FL panhandle as a bonus.

ARIZONA - If Obama wins 2/3 of hispanics he should add 8 pts to his totals from last time, getting him close to a win.  Given the Senate race is also nearly tied and turnout is critical, Obama should be visiting Arizona as often as he is Nevada, and they should be up on the air big-time.

INDIANA - Obama won this last time, and he's not winning it again.  But there is a Senate race, some Indiana TV bleeds into parts of Ohio (a bonus) and getting the vote out will be critical to taking Lugar's old seat.

MISSOURI - I have no hopes to win MO, but the more Dem constiuencies turn-out, the better for Claire McCaskill.  If you don't think Missourians won't elect Akin, you don't know Missouri.

5) Go National.  What about some "morning in America" type ads for a national audience, driving turn-out for Dems in red states and reminding voters who Obama really is.  Also remember there are down-ballot state legislative races in these red states where Dems NEED to turn out to avoid disaster at the state level.

6) Give Gary Johnson a boost.  It would be a worthy investment for some libertarian-leaning celeb to get Johnson TV time in places like Alaska, Montana, Texas - places Obama won't win but where a big. showing by Johnson would make things uncomfortable for Romney.  (I could see Johnson getting in the 20s in Alaska).

So.. how about it, let's turn this into a near-50 state strategy.  

Poll

If it was your choice, which state would you have Obama make a play for next?

46%36 votes
36%28 votes
7%6 votes
9%7 votes
0%0 votes

| 77 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (19+ / 0-)

    The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. --George Orwell

    by jgkojak on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 12:11:54 PM PDT

  •  Montana (7+ / 0-)

    The polling there is relatively hopeful. It won't turn this cycle, but it will soon.

    And there is a Senate seat there up for grabs.

  •  Texas. Cruz can be beaten. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, tom 47, Odysseus

    Texas and all its evs can go blue, someday. They have to start somewhere, though.
    The gop is still stalling on the production tax credit for wind. It's a big winner for the Dems if they'll get on the stick.

    Paul Sadler is a very credible candidate for Texas. Some money and some ads, and he could take Cruz down, who is not expecting to have to actually work to win this one. Shock him. Shock the gop. Give Sadler a chance.

    You can't make this stuff up.

    by David54 on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 12:25:27 PM PDT

    •  There's a lot of House races in TX (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      llywrch, David54, JamieG from Md

      You never know where Dems might pull an upset.

      NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

      by bear83 on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 01:12:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  You beat me, but I second the thought (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      David54

      So, now we might get asked to participate in a national way?  The state with the second-highest population and number of Electoral College votes, after California?  We're talking 38 of those babies, btw.  

      Cuz Crazy Cruz in the Senate would be a BAD IDEA? Because maybe it would be nice to have some real representation in the House and Senate for the 3.5 million plus voters who voted for Obama in 2008 in Texas.

      This texas voter wonders.

      Can anyone say, "Landslide"?  

      Go ahead, just try it out loud once: "Landslide!"

      Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

      by tom 47 on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 01:16:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A question? (0+ / 0-)

    Why do people think there is not a 50  stare offensive already?

    Republican Family Values: Using the daughters from your first wife to convince everybody that your second wife is lying about your third wife.

    by jsfox on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 12:32:10 PM PDT

    •  Lack of interest in Texas by the nat'l. Dems (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      llywrch, VirginiaBlue

      See diary about Texas from earlier today.

      I am tired of the DNC asking me for money for races in FL, CA, or OH, and they won't lift a finger here in Texas against Pete "Taliban" Sessions, TX-32, and Chair of the GOP Congressional Campaign Committee.

      That'sa some of "why", for a start.

      Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

      by tom 47 on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 01:18:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Because there isn't. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      llywrch

      There is no Democratic organization that commits to recruiting and vetting candidates for each of the 435 House districts, and all other offices up and down the ballots.

      OFA here in TX has people calling FL.  Multiple volunteers I have spoken with have been pissed off about this.  We have our own races.  Support them.

      -7.75 -4.67

      "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

      There are no Christians in foxholes.

      by Odysseus on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 01:41:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Good choices. I chose Arizona, because I want (3+ / 0-)

    seniors to actually be reminded of what Obama did for them in removing the "donut hole" and how he's the one who is preserving Medicare and Medicaid (remember Clinton pointing out how Medicaid is used by people for their nursing homes?).  I also want to drive the racists absolutely bonkers in that state so that the Hispanics remember and toss out the bigots who have passed the 1070 bill and the rest of the things trying to deny people rights.

  •  Missouri: a lot of folks may be riding Jay Nixon's (0+ / 0-)

    gubernatorial coattails, including the President, if possible: McCaskill, Montee (for Lt. Gov. vs. GOP stripper fan Kinder).

    Life is the ultimate economic bubble; we leave this life with all the capital we initially invested: none.

    by Superskepticalman on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 12:39:22 PM PDT

  •  Obama could make TX competititive (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, bear83, tom 47, JamieG from Md

    I don't think he could win but I'm convinced Obama could get above 45% in TX and set the stage for Texas as a swing state in 2016.  

    Trust-Fund Kids of America Unite... save the Bush tax cuts!

    by JCPOK on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 12:39:34 PM PDT

  •  The only draw back to this is money (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    llywrch, VirginiaBlue, JamieG from Md

    Texas is expensive lots of big widely spread markets.

    Georgia won't turn purple until it's Latino voting numbers (4-5%) catch up more to it's Latino population numbers (9-10%). There are less white liberals in Georgia than in FL, VA, NC. Obama even did better in SC with whites than in GA in 2008.

    Obama won Indiana on the ground. He had lot's of operatives from Chicago drive the 1-4 hours to reach Democratic areas of the state (Gary to Indianapolis) this time many of the GOTV types have had to head to Wisconsin.

    I think Arizona and Missouri would make some sense to try. But Arizona always looks better for Dems on paper than it usually turns out to be (large Mormon population), Missouri usually is closer than it would seem to be.

    What we really need is Deam back at the DNC so rebuild our 50 states House strategy.

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

    by dopper0189 on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 01:12:03 PM PDT

    •  Yes, TX is big. 26,000,000 people. 38 EC votes (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      llywrch

      Second only to California, not to put too fine a point on it.

      70% of the population is in the D-FW - Houston - San Antonio "Texas Trangle".  With Austin, and smaller media markets, that is three major markets, one medium one, and 2-3 somewhat smaller ones, to reach 18.2 M people, and the electorate they represent.

      The GOP would sh*t if Texas were even somewhat competitive.  A close vote would scare the bejeesus out of them.  It is what holds their national strength, and even a good scare would topple them sooner.

      Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

      by tom 47 on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 01:35:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not saying we shouldn't just the cost is high (0+ / 0-)

        Houston is the nation 4th biggest metro area, Dallas is 8th, and San An is 16th (I'm going by metro not city size that's how advertisers charge). Austin is large but I think it's like 25th. El Paso is also a large market outside the area.

        Now the problem becomes do you spend all that money (at it will be a lot) trying to move the state or do you split it and go after a number of other swing states that are closer to parity. For the same money you could go after MO, AZ, and GA?  

        -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

        by dopper0189 on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 02:43:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Could Not Agree More. Dean Should Head DNC... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dopper0189

      ....again with his brilliant but obvious, 50-State Strategy. Why the Democrats STILL don't "get it" after all of the fantastic evidence of this, drives me nuts.

      If Not Us, Who,..... If Not Now, When?

      by VirginiaBlue on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 02:24:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I endorse your enthusiasm; however... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JamieG from Md

    We have a finite amount of time/money in terms of President Obama campaign stops/campaign dollars.

    I anticipate Romney and the GOP trying to go national with advertising but the bang-for-your-buck is so low that only a desperate candidate with lots of money and nowhere better to spend it would seriously consider it in this new media paradigm.

    Coordinating with House and Senate candidates on campaign stops wherever and whenever practicable is a great idea. The popularity of the President is a boon to almost all of our candidates this year but not worth the logistical headache, financial cost, and time lost in critical battleground states.

    Gary Johnson is a potential spoiler in several states but not worth the effort by our campaign at this point. Let nature take its course and allow Paulites and other anti-Romney voters to migrate to Johnson uninfluenced by direct action from our team. Johnson voters are not likely to shore up down-ticket candidates for our team anyway.

    We must focus on spending our time and resources on contests we must win and can win. Building momentum for the 2014 election is a vital part of this 2012 strategy so holding the Senate and winning a narrow majority in the House is a feasible goal and lays important groundwork for 2014 if we expend our efforts wisely.

    Still, one of the most important tasks for 2012 and looking forward to 2014 (and one that we can all help with) is getting out the vote.

    •  Finite amount of money (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      llywrch

      which will not be spent in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Mexico because it's clear Obama will easily carry those states.

      So why not pull some of that money out of those states, which have expensive media markets and use it in Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana and Missouri?  Those are 5 states where the Dems can win senate seats but Obama may not win.  Use the money on ground game and on some ads to get Dem voter turnout.  Obama may pull one or two out and the Dems may win 3, 4 or even 5 of those senate seats and have a nice majority.

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 01:18:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Upgrading the Senate would be great but (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        llywrch

        retaking the House is more important for 2012. If you look at individual close races (the House has about 33% Dem lock, 33% GOP lock, and 33% contestable) they are not located in just 5 states.

        We have to focus our efforts and not resort to a shotgun approach. There will be additional opportunities to upgrade the Senate in 2014 and hopefully shore up a narrow majority in the House if we handle 2012 wisely.

        Spending time and money in battleground states increases the President's polling lead and reinforces the narrative that he is going to win the election. Not only does that help every one of our candidates on a national scale, it helps individual candidates in those states (Sherrod Brown is one example).

        We do not want the Romney team, the mainstream media, or the American people to still think the race is close come October 3rd. Mr. Romney must walk onto that debate stage knowing he has no chance to win and hoping to just avoid a landslide. We do that by staying the course over the next several weeks and re-evaluating then.

        We all know what happens when you shoot before aiming ;)

        •  Without the Senate the House is pointless (0+ / 0-)

          Montana, Missouri and North Dakota are vital to keeping the Senate.  Indiana and Arizona are also important to help offset the loss of Nebraska or any other seat.  

          I strongly disagree.  Unlike the GOP we are more than capable of walking and chewing gum at the same time.  The money Obama would spend to expand the map and help out in those states wouldn't go to congressional candidates anyway as it is for his presidential run.  He can certainly help in key districts and Clinton will likely be campaigning for many Dems as well but these states are key in that they will force Rmoney to play defense and will at the same time help downballot.  It's knocking out two birds with one stone.

          This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

          by DisNoir36 on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 03:59:34 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I agree with Dorren (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Dorren

        there is a finite amount of money to be spent. But that shouldn't stop volunteers from campaigning locally.

        Shop Liberally this holiday season at Kos Katalog

        by JamieG from Md on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 02:34:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  South Carolina (0+ / 0-)

    Large minority population combined with moderate white Dems and Indys who just can't stand Mitt.

    The SC GOP primary was pretty brutal to Mr Bain.

    NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

    by bear83 on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 01:16:25 PM PDT

  •  Couldn't agree more. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    llywrch

    For all those reasons plus one more.

    As democratic advertising limits itself to the swing states, and blue states have higher information voters, NOT campaigning in pink and red states widens the cultural and information gap afflicting the country.

    In other words, we abandon large swaths of the nation to the tender intellectual mercies of FOX. Do we protect the hen house, or whistle past it?

  •  There's a really big opportunity (0+ / 0-)

    in the South. A poll I read here a few days ago stated that while southerners (narrowly) trusted Romney more on taxes, by a 4:1 ratio they also felt that the rich ought to pay more taxes, not less.

    A) this defines low-information, but
    B) if we fail to campaign or advertise there, whose fault is that? Most importantly
    C) This should be taken as a golden moment to educate and swing the South by appealing to the populist sentiment, there and elsewhere in the Red States.

    Without a reliable South, the modern GOP will simply cease to exist as a national force. Now is the time to hit them hard.

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