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This email from the Warren campaign was a great way to start off my day:
Sam --
A new poll out today from the Springfield Republican shows Elizabeth with a 50-44 lead over Scott Brown among likely voters.
This is good news – it shows that your help is paying off. We clearly have momentum, but we’re not taking anything for granted. Two more polls should be coming out this week before the first debate on Thursday, and we know they could swing either direction.
No matter what the polls say over the next 51 days, we’re going to keep fighting every day like we’re 10-points down.
Thanks to your hard work, the momentum is on Elizabeth’s side. Now let’s keep it up!
Doug Rubin
Senior Advisor
Elizabeth for MA
The email also provides a link to the news article and the poll with the numbers and questions:
http://www.masslive.com/...
Now here are some highlights:
The survey of Bay State voters conducted Sept. 6-13 by the Western New England University Polling Institute through a partnership with The Republican and MassLive.com, shows Warren leading over Brown, 50 to 44 percent, among likely voters.
The gap among registered voters is even larger, according to the survey, which concluded Warren leads 53 to 41 percent. The poll of 545 registered voters has a 4.2 percent margin of error, while the sample of 444 likely voters has a 4.6 percent margin of error. - 9/16/12
Emphasis Mine.
Tim Vercellotti, professor of political science and director of the Polling Institute at Western New England University, gives his analysis for Warren's bump:
Warren's lead comes in part from the fact that she's shored up support among Democrats to 89 percent, while losing only six percent of her party's support to Brown.
Part of that bump, he said, may be attributable to the fact that polling started at the end of the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., and just two days after Warren delivered a prime-time speech ahead of former President Bill Clinton at the event.
"This may be not just due to her speech, but the overall enthusiasm Democrats have had coming out of their convention," Vercellotti said. "The data shows that Democrats are more fired up right now than independents or Republicans."
If Warren's lead is indeed a post-convention bump, Vercellotti said only time will tell if it lasts. - 9/16/12
Vercellotti states that another poll will be conducted in a few weeks to see if Warren's post-convention bump will hold. Now here are a few other highlights from this article:
Brown continues to run strong among his base, with support from 91 percent of Republicans and only four percent of GOP voters gravitating to Warren. Brown holds a healthy 22-point lead among independents, but for now, that is not enough to overcome Warren’s strength among Democrats.
Brown's campaign has worked hard to win over independent voters, who make up more than 52 percent of the commonwealth's electorate. As of August, 35 percent of Massachusetts residents were registered Democrats and 11 percent were registered Republicans.
Brown has been boasting about his bipartisanship voting record and his ability to reach across the aisle and work with Democrats thanks to the help of a Congressional Quarterly study designating Brown the second-most bipartisan legislator in the U.S. Senate in 2011. Brown has also picked up endorsements from notable Democrats across the commonwealth, including former Springfield Mayor Charles Ryan and former Lowell Mayor Rita Mercier. But here's some other facts to take into account:
And with 21 percent of likely independent voters saying they might change their minds, compared to 15 percent of Democrats and 9 percent of Republicans, it is a strong possibility that those voters will be the ones to sway the election. - 9/16/12
What we also see from this poll is Warren's attacks hitting Brown for being instrumental in the GOP's War On Women with his co-sponsoring of the Blunt Amendment and his vote against the Equal Pay Act:
The poll concludes that Warren now holds support from 55 percent of the women likely to vote while 40 percent are backing Brown. Five percent say they are still undecided.
Barbara Cappello, an independent voter from East Longmeadow, said she is leaning toward Warren, and has been swayed by the campaign’s focus on women’s issues.
“I certainly think that women should be paid equally for equal jobs, they have the right to choose what happens to their own bodies,” Cappello said, echoing statements Warren has made on the campaign trail. “I think it puts me more on her side than his. Maybe it’s because she is a woman, I don’t know.” - 9/16/12
Brown still leads with men, 49% to Warren's 44% but the poll shows that Warren is leading in western MA while Brown is leading in central MA:
While support for each candidate also varies by region, the poll concludes that Western Massachusetts is strongly leaning toward Warren 61 percent to 33 percent – a huge margin, given Warren’s six-point lead among likely voters overall.
Vercellotti said Berkshire, Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties contain 13 percent of the voting population in the state, but are heavily Democratic. In 2008, for example, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama beat Republican John McCain by 26 points statewide but 36 points in Western Massachusetts.
Brandon Charin, 38, a stock market trader from Longmeadow, said he plans to vote for Warren largely because he dislikes Republican policies.
“It’s not really so much Warren versus Brown as it is Democrat versus Republican,” Charin said.
In central Massachusetts, which has historically voted more conservatively, Brown holds an impressive lead over Warren with likely voters, 50 to 38 percent. That margin, when considering the higher concentration of people in the middle part of the state compared to the west, may hold more of a blessing for Brown than Warren's blowout here.
And while Brown holds a two percentage point margin over Warren in the North and South Shores (grouped together), likely voters in Boston and its suburbs are supporting the Harvard Law school professor over Brown 52-43 percent. - 9/16/12
The poll concludes that Warren and Brown are roughly even with likely voters and but both Warren and Brown's standing with registered viewers have both improved with registered voters but at different degrees:
Looking at all registered voters, Brown’s standing has improved, but Warren’s standing has improved to a greater degree. Brown’s favorable-unfavorable numbers among all registered voters are now 52 percent favorable, 30 percent unfavorable – a net positive rating of 22 points compared to a net positive rating of 17 points in May.
For all registered voters, Warren’s numbers are 54 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable, for a net positive rating of 26 points, compared to a net positive rating of only 11 points in May among all registered voters.
Vercellotti said that Warren's gain in favorability while her unfavorability stayed relatively the same also contributed to her lead over Brown overall. - 9/16/12
Now before we start full celebrating, Vercellotti offers a fair warning to take into account:
"Twenty-one percent of independent voters who expressed a preference said they might change their minds, compared to 15 percent of Democrats and 9 percent of Republicans," Vercellotti said. "It’s clear that a sizable number of independent voters are still up for grabs in this race." - 9/16/12
Vercellotti also offers some insight in how the televised debates scheduled for September 20th, October 1st, 10th and 30th can play in shaping this election:
"Even if voters don't see the debates on TV or in person, there will be a buzz and people will be talking about them," Vercellotti said. "That buzz can help form the opinions of undecided voters and the first debate is coming up in short order." - 9/16/12
Voter turn out, especially in Western Massachusetts, will be key to Warren's win. Lets help Warren maintain her post-convention bounce in the polls. Here's her ActBlue page:
https://secure.actblue.com/...