In other words, Massachusetts is Indigo Blue, and unless accidental incumbent Republican Sen. Scott Brown is sitting above 50 percent, the undecideds should break against him.
Luckily, we don't have to wait until Election Day to test my theory, as four new polls of the race this week show Democratic superstar Elizabeth Warren surging past the incumbent. The trendlines for each poll are included in the parentheses.
Much of the improvement comes from Democratic voters who decided that, hey, perhaps they won't be best served by helping Mitch McConnell get the Senate majority. PPP:
Warren's gaining because Democratic voters are coming back into the fold. Last month she led only 73-20 with Democrats. Now she's up 81-13. That explains basically the entire difference between the two polls. There are plenty of Democrats who like Scott Brown- 29% approve of him- but fewer are now willing to vote for him. That's probably because of another finding on our poll- 53% of voters want Democrats to have control of the Senate compared to only 36% who want Republicans in charge. More and more Democrats who may like Brown are shifting to Warren because they don't like the prospect of a GOP controlled Senate.There was much ado made last week about a change in Warren's message as people panicked over the previous round of polling. That looks unwarranted and overly reactive, as these numbers were taken before her new media campaign hit the airwaves. Still, I'm not complaining. Her new ads are good:
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