I got Obama right where I want him!
Romney's finished. Postulate that in this proposed hypothesis.
We've seen a number of Republicans, especially those in blue state elections, distance themselves from Romney in the wake of his dismissal of half the American people. Conservative commentators are in open rebellion. GOP Senators don't want to take questions about the guy. GOP congressmen don't even want to discuss the guy.
At some point, Republican candidates down ticket will begin to see the writing on the wall: A lot of voters will walk into that booth and see right there at the top of their ticket a name that brings to the mouth the taste of bile with a hint of dog turd, Mitt Romney. Are those voters going to carefully pick their candidates, choosing to separate Romney from other Republicans, or will they lump them all together in one big mass of abysmal?
I think we will be able to tell in the next couple of weeks. Here are some things I'm watching for:
1. Watch for how big name Republican surrogates are deployed. Will people like Christie and Rubio, etc., be out stumping for Romney or will they be in Congressional races in swing districts and in Senate races?
2. Watch for who is willing to appear next to Mitt Romney in places like Nevada, Wisconsin, Virginia and New Hampshire. Will Allen campaign with him in Virginia? Will Heller (who is already on the run from Romney) appear with him in Nevada? That's as good as sign as any that they've written him off. These are places Romney will have to go.
3. Watch for Paul Ryan. If Ryan is heading to congressional districts to shore up Republicans who should be fairly safe, that is a strong signal that national Republicans have decided Romney's toast and he's a drag.
4. While Obama has never been much of a party builder, he has every interest (i hope) in seeing the Senate stay solid and flipping the house. Watch where he and other big Dems (FLOTUS, VPOTUS, Big Dog) are deployed.
I'm pretty sure the party leaders are waiting to see how the first debate goes and that will determine what happens next. They've invested a lot of money in Romney and aren't ready to cut their losses quite yet. But if you start seeing things like the items I describe above, or sudden shifts in SuperPac and party committee spending patterns, you'll know that the GOP thinks Romney is a drag on the ticket. That will be the time Democrats need to move in for the kill and build this up into a wave election.