Things are looking good for our President with the polling that has come out recently.
Nate has our chances at retaining the US Senate as 70 % .
It is my view that President Obama is up by 8 points , possibly more. I know that there are polls that have his lead at much less. However, the better polls, the polls that include cell phones and live interviewers and have a more solid methodology, are the ones that show a better result for the President.
After the last couple of weeks of hate from willard, I think that 2012 will be very much like 2008, another wave election. We will probably not win Indiana, unlike last time. I strongly suspect that many republicans will stay home on November 6 due to (1) their correct understanding that President Obama will crush willard and (2) their antipathy towards willard.
YouGov showed us up 8 on the ballot preference.
I am excited that future US Senator from Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren is winning her race against the republican incumbent and that Tammy Baldwin is beating the bigot in her race to be the next US Senator from Wisconsin. Our chances at retaining the US Senate look very good.
However, more exciting, to me is the thought that 2012 looks like it will be a wave election, similar to 2008 and that we now have a legitimate shot winning the US House of Representatives.
Several polls, digging even deeper, raise some serious eyebrows and invite speculation that the House, as well, could be in play.But the least reported polling story of the day may well have been the most surprising, as well. A raft of Democratic polling releases (versus nil for the GOP) hints that there may be the hint of a wave building at the House level.Nate again :
The velocity of the change is unusual. Although Senate races in different parts of the country can sometimes move in the same direction, there was never quite this rapid a shift in our Senate forecasts in 2008 or 2010.We need to stomp Rmoney.
The forecast model is not doing anything particularly fancy; it’s just that an overwhelming number of Senate polls recently have shown the Democratic candidates’ standing improving.
, but if there is some sort of national tide against Republicans
But if the trend continues, the question may no longer be whether Republicans can win the Senate — but how vulnerable they are to losing the House.
We need to retain the US Senate.
We need to win back the US House of Representatives.
We can do all three.