Apologies for a short diary, but the Princeton Election Consortium (P.E.C.) has just posted its update on the House:
Conditions through August showed a 2% lead on the generic Congressional ballot for Democrats. As of September 20th, in the wake of the Democratic convention, the lead has widened to 4.0 +/- 2.0%. Although it has yet to be fully appreciated by political pundits, this translates to a likely November loss of the House of Representatives by Republicans. The probability of a Democratic takeover is currently 74% with a median majority of 16 seats. This is a knife-edge situation, and the picture may well change again over the coming six weeks.Sam Wang of the P.E.C. nailed the 2004 and 2008 elections, nearly exactly both times with better accuracy than even Saint Nate.
Our own StephenCLE, in his comprehensive Monday analyses of individual races, last Monday showed a net of 17 Dem seats, but it's increasing by 3-4 every week.
Nothing is done until it's done, so we have to work hard to beat the Rethugs, but the House is now in sight!