So now that Mitt Romney has apparently shown us really is the un-American candidate in the race twice this week by disowning at least half of the country in a truly disgusting manner at his fundraiser and then doubling down on it during a pathetic attempt at a press conference (that's #1) and intentionally darkening his face when appearing on Univision (because that's so much more important to the Latino population than a good decent attitude on immigration reform): What does this mean for the election?
Beyond the fact that Mitt Romney has very probably blown it, how good could this be for our side?
Could this be as good as 2008? Better?
Here's where I think the election definitely is right now:
We have not had enough time for the Romney stupid-show from earlier this week to show up in the tracking polls yet. But, it has clearly shown up in a few snap polls, and it clearly has had a negative impact according to polling focused on the 47% moment itself.
President Obama wins, and handily in state polls: He should now do it by taking all of the swing states that are usually gold, yellow, silver, etc. on all the news analysis maps: FL, OH, NH, WI, IA, NC, VA, CO, NV. In fact, while the national trackers showed the Obama bounce subsiding, if anything, the state polls show the President widening his lead.
That's great! That will probably hold us the Senate and even help us take the House.
But that's not a landslide.
Assuming Romney continues to implode, and looking at the vote patterns in 2008, you can see another level of states fall into the blue category if President Obama reaches into the 57-59% popular vote range. They are: SC, GA, WV, MO, IN, AZ
Even better. At that stage, all things being as they usually are, a Senate hold is very likely, as is a takeover of the House.
However, that is still not a landslide. That is at the next level - where only the very core of Republican states hold to red. Think about how Barry Goldwater lost to President Johnson in 1964, or how President Reagan beat Walter Mondale in 1984. That's landslide territory. I'm not even sure we can get to those levels, but here are the states that would tip in that case: WV, KY, LA, AL, MS, TN, TX, ND, SD, MT, WY, ID, AR, AK. That would have President Obama winning upwards of 60% of the popular vote.
I do believe, no matter what, UT, OK, KS, NE will be red states on election day.
So what to watch for as indicators: Where do any new GOP ad schedules show up (either Romney - if he's got any money left - or the Superpacs)? Are there any pollsters phoning in previously low-activity states (like the Kossack here who got a poll from a non-media polling firm in West Virginia)?
And remember, a landslide isn't necessarily defined by the margin of victory. It's about how many states you win - and a lot of those red states are really small.
So, hold onto that very positive thought. I'm not saying that this ultimate, "landslide" level is likely - but I am saying that it is possible now. And it wasn't a week ago. Now let's go make it happen! GOTV!