Skip to main content

One remarkable "side-effect" of surging Democratic voter enthusiasm in the last few weeks, has been that our chances of retaining the Senate seemed to have spiked. For example, the Intrade Odds for the Democrats to retain control the Senate after 2012 reached 69.9%, rising 2.71% just today.

Mark Blumenthal, and Adam Carlson describe how Senate Polls Show Democrats Gaining On Rising Voter Enthusiasm.

WASHINGTON -- In the two weeks since the Democratic National Convention, Democratic Senate candidates have been making considerable gains in the polls in several closely contested races across the country.

Currently, a combination of returning senators and candidates leading in 2012 contests would give the Democrats 48 seats, with 51 needed for a majority. One independent candidate likely to caucus with the Democrats is leading in Maine, while another six races where neither candidate has led consistently are widely considered toss-ups. In three of those toss-up states -- Wisconsin, Massachusetts and Florida -- the Democratic candidates appear to have made gains since the Democratic convention.

The biggest shift has been in Wisconsin, where three of four polls conducted after the Democratic convention show Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin moving ahead of former Gov. Tommy Thompson. Most polls conducted earlier in the year had shown Baldwin trailing.

Though the race remains a toss-up, the HuffPost Pollster chart for the race, based on all available polls, currently gives Baldwin a slight edge (47.2 to 46.4 percent). She had trailed Thompson by 5 to 6 percentage points for much of the year.

This long analysis of several important races is a must read for political buffs.

9:06 PM PT: Nate Silver now we will have 51.9 seats +1.3 since Sept. 9

and sees our changes of getting at least 50 seats rising to 77.7%

+15.8 since Sept. 9

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site