One remarkable "side-effect" of surging Democratic voter enthusiasm in the last few weeks, has been that our chances of retaining the Senate seemed to have spiked. For example, the Intrade Odds for the Democrats to retain control the Senate after 2012 reached 69.9%, rising 2.71% just today.
Mark Blumenthal, and Adam Carlson describe how Senate Polls Show Democrats Gaining On Rising Voter Enthusiasm.
WASHINGTON -- In the two weeks since the Democratic National Convention, Democratic Senate candidates have been making considerable gains in the polls in several closely contested races across the country.This long analysis of several important races is a must read for political buffs.
Currently, a combination of returning senators and candidates leading in 2012 contests would give the Democrats 48 seats, with 51 needed for a majority. One independent candidate likely to caucus with the Democrats is leading in Maine, while another six races where neither candidate has led consistently are widely considered toss-ups. In three of those toss-up states -- Wisconsin, Massachusetts and Florida -- the Democratic candidates appear to have made gains since the Democratic convention.
The biggest shift has been in Wisconsin, where three of four polls conducted after the Democratic convention show Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin moving ahead of former Gov. Tommy Thompson. Most polls conducted earlier in the year had shown Baldwin trailing.
Though the race remains a toss-up, the HuffPost Pollster chart for the race, based on all available polls, currently gives Baldwin a slight edge (47.2 to 46.4 percent). She had trailed Thompson by 5 to 6 percentage points for much of the year.
9:06 PM PT: Nate Silver now we will have 51.9 seats +1.3 since Sept. 9
and sees our changes of getting at least 50 seats rising to 77.7%
+15.8 since Sept. 9