Ok, so when I saw Purple Strategies new swing states polls come across the ticker I closed my eyes and braced myself. PS is a consulting group headed by Lannie Davis and Michael Steele ........ ugh, you say! Yes, these guys are unctious cretins but they make there money, not by being right, but by convincing swing-district Ds and Rs that they can cobble a winning "third way" campaign. Their polls have consistantly been R leaning this season but that's not totally bad: if an umpire is always calling the outside strike, you can figure out the strike zone. Thus before reading the polls I figured they would have about a 2% slice from the norm and I was proven correct. The news is solid, RINO/DINO confirmation that the Preznit is in good shape. Numbers after the flip.
NOTE: I'm showing Purple Strategies numbers, no including what I see as a 2 pt. Red handicap.
Leading off with the biggie:
Arizona: Romney 48, Obama 45 Romney +3
* Even if you don't factor in a house effect, O-3 in AZ would still be HUGE news! Romney can't afford to defend states like AZ. I'll betcha' Montana is soft too.
Ohio: Obama 48, Romney 44 Obama +4
* There you have it, bake in the 2 pt slice and you get the 6 pt lead we have become accustomed to. This is Pennsylvania redux. In a month Mitt will be pulling the $$$.
Florida: Obama 47, Romney 48 Romney +1
* Plus 2 and you've got O+1, which is where this race has been for months.
Virginia: Obama 46, Romney 43 Obama +3
*Confirmation that VA. is sliding out of play. The new Ohio.
Colorado: Obama 48, Romney 45 Obama +3
* This is nice to see. CO started this season off strong for O but has seen a lot of tightening. Great in-state Dems will insure this stays O+.
North Carolina:Romney 46, Obama 48 Obama +2
*Second poll in 24 hours showing Obama up in this state which everyone seems to forget went blue their last chance to vote POTUS. That last poll BTW showed a lead for our favorite incumbant of +4. Add a 2pt slice to this PS poll and you get: +4 ! Sounds about right.
Mitt is running out of money. Donors are backing out of committments and he's going dark in competitive states. He is physically and mentally shot (ask his wife, poor thing). Obama is looking at a big win and that will mean a big wave. The Senate is safe and the Hizzie is in range.