Septemeber 22, 2012's Intrade Contract Share Price for Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012 rose to $7.09 today. These shares pay $10.00 if Obama wins so Intrade suggests this represents a 70.9% change of his re-election. These markets are still open, and these are the numbers as of approximately 7:20 p.m. EST.
As of 7:20 p.m. EST Romney's contract share price is down to Mitt Romney to $3.04 / share.
Our chances of retaining control of the Senate have surged in the last two weeks to
58.5%, just dropping in the last hour after some large trades.
The contract share price for "The Democrats to control the House of Representatives after 2012 Congressional Elections" remains low at 23.4%.
I'm puzzled as to why we are showing no improvement in our chances of regaining control of the House. Are our fundamentals truly this poor, or might it be that the lack of as many non-candidate polls at the congressional district level is not providing the same level of data as we see in the Senate races, so that English based betting markets just haven't picked up the surge in Democratic voter enthusiasm since the conventions?
We need to focus more attention to see if there is anything we can do to improve our chances of winning back control of the House. Otherwise, we could face another two years of frustrating gridlock. But, it is encouraging to see the betting markets confirming the improving sense of optimism we feel about the Presidential and Senate races.