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Septemeber 22, 2012's Intrade Contract Share Price for Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012 rose to $7.09 today. These shares pay $10.00 if Obama wins so Intrade suggests this represents a 70.9% change of his re-election. These markets are still open, and these are the numbers as of approximately 7:20 p.m. EST.

PhotobucketPrice/Share Barack Obama to bre re-elected President in 2012

As of 7:20 p.m. EST Romney's contract share price is down to Mitt Romney to $3.04 / share.  

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Our chances of retaining control of the Senate have surged in the last two weeks to
58.5%, just dropping  in the last hour after some large trades.

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The contract share price for "The Democrats to control the House of Representatives after 2012 Congressional Elections" remains low at 23.4%.  

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I'm puzzled as to why we are showing no improvement in our chances of regaining control of the House.  Are our fundamentals truly this poor, or might it be that the lack of as many non-candidate polls at the congressional district level is not providing the same level of data as we see in the Senate races, so  that English based betting markets just haven't picked up the surge in Democratic voter enthusiasm since the conventions?

We need to focus more attention to see if there is anything we can do to improve our chances of winning back control of the House.  Otherwise, we could face another two years of frustrating gridlock. But, it is encouraging to see the betting markets confirming the improving sense of optimism we feel about the Presidential and Senate races.

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Comment Preferences

  •  hmm.... maybe it's time to buy a few of those (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog, Bonsai66, Lujane

    in-trade shares ...??

    potus winning re-election is looking damn good!!

    :-)

    now, if we could just get those House numbers higher...

    Toleration is the greatest gift of the mind; it requires the same effort of the brain that it takes to balance oneself on a bicycle. -Helen Keller

    by ridemybike on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 05:02:10 PM PDT

    •  Yes, they still look cheap to me. But, I'm (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ridemybike, Bonsai66, Woody, Lujane

      worried about the House. What are we going to do here.  

      The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

      by HoundDog on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 05:04:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  dunno, dog. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoundDog, George3, arealniceguy, Lujane

        there are so many that should be booted out
        for the life of me i cant understand why fools
        like steve king, virginia fox and michele bachman
        keep getting elected.

        don't have much, but still give a few bucks when i can.

        Toleration is the greatest gift of the mind; it requires the same effort of the brain that it takes to balance oneself on a bicycle. -Helen Keller

        by ridemybike on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 05:12:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  For the next 8 years, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoundDog, Lujane

        work like hell to have independent redistricting commissions in each and every state. As long as R's dominate state legislatures and control the process, they will create congressional (and state) districts that pack as many D's into as few districts as possible (e.g. a district that's 75% D and 25% R) and make all the rest with comfortable but not excessive R majorities (e.g. 55% R and 45% D). This creates a situation in which a state population of 42% D, 45% R and 13% Ind/other can yield a state Congressional delegation that's 2/3 R. Technology and detailed data can generate very sophisticated maps with convoluted districts that Elbridge Gerry could have only dreamed about.

  •  In trade has been pretty bullish lately (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog, pistolSO, Lujane

    Guess they don't trust tracking polls either.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 05:02:52 PM PDT

  •  Probably Money Has Much More Leverage At (5+ / 0-)

    the local level. That's why the right wants to devolve power as much as possible to the local level, where global banks and corporations can crush all resistance.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 05:11:58 PM PDT

  •  I'm surprised how low the House chances are (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog, George3, bythesea, Lujane

    too. Conservatives are sure worried about losing the House.

    "I'm sculpting now. Landscapes mostly." ~ Yogi Bear

    by eXtina on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 05:38:55 PM PDT

    •  The CW is that it's unlikely, and that has only (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      eXtina, Lujane

      begun to shift a bit very recently.  If things continue as now the number will creep up with time.

    •  It's a fundamental misunderstanding of House polls (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Lujane, a2nite, eXtina

      House polls so far have showed the incumbents (which are mostly Republicans this cycle) in pretty good shape. That always happens though. The bottom doesn't fall out from under the party in the House until mid-late October. Several Dem house incumbents were up 10-20 points in the polls at this point in 2010, then lost anyway.

  •  It may be that there is not as much (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog, George3, Lujane

    solid info on the House races, as so many of them are under the radar so to speak, not being polled as frequently, and subject to local factors, so that it is harder to make a good bet on the outcome. If there is more evidence of a wave election, if Romney's numbers continue to fade then there may be a surge in the House futures.

    Necessity is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.-- Wm.Pitt the Younger

    by JeffSCinNY on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 05:50:46 PM PDT

  •  Intrade has been a trailing indicator this cycle, (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody, bythesea, pistolSO, Lujane

    even compared to other betting markets like Iowa Electronic Markets or the English posted odds.  And it has substantially trailed the forecasting models of people like Nate or the Pollster folks.  

    Intrade's Obama reelect number was stuck in the high 50s until a week after the DNC, while Nate had gone up to 80.  The really impressive movement on Intrade has been in the past 10 days.  They actually were at 72 yesterday.  

    I think it's great that the Senate number is up to 58, reflecting the new CW of just the past 3-4 days.

    I would read exactly nothing into their House number right now.   I think Nancy Pelosi's current 60% figure is pretty realistic.

  •  What I noticed had changed (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, bythesea, tofumagoo, fou, Lujane

    quite a bit was the party combination wins;

    Dem Pres + Dem Sen + Rep House...this is at 54%

    The next highest combo is

    Dem Pres + Dem Sen + Dem House at  18%

    Rep Pres + Rep Sen + Rep House is at 12.5%

    These numbers have swung WAY in favor of the Democratic party since the conventions.

    YES WE DID! November 4th, 2008

    by Esjaydee on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 06:25:52 PM PDT

  •  Arg (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog, Woody, bythesea, tofumagoo, Lujane

    I set up an intrade account about two weeks ago. I don't have real money, so I set up the practice account. If I had had the real $5000 to invest I would have doubled it.

  •  money where mouth is (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lujane

    "We need to focus more attention to see if there is anything we can do to improve our chances of winning back control of the House.  Otherwise, we could face another two years of frustrating gridlock"

    I agree, which is why I gave $25 to Graves to help him defeat the VILE Michelle Bachmann and have been clicking some dollars all along on act blue. I also put my money where my mouth is on Obama and Intrade, buying him a few months back at 57% to the tune of $1000, so I stand to make a cool $860 when he wins in November.

    Thinking at 23% the house might be a good buy on intrade, since they are bound to go up, even if they don't retake the house. It is a  far from sure bet, but you do feel that if Romney crashes and burns in the first debate that will be the tipping point in the house races...I think Romney's double vile idiocy on Libya and the 47% was the tipping point for the presidency. Barring Obama deciding to spout some ill rhymes from  F*** Tha Police in that first debate, the presidential election is baked...

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