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Seen a number of articles in the last month, including a couple over at TPM, wherein the President and a number of other Beltway Dems, particularly in the Senate, keep claiming that after the election, if the President is re-elected, that the Republicans in Congress will be more reasonable and willing to work out solutions, and that the party as a whole will essentially become more moderate because of the defeat at the polls.  

This is just fundamentally Wrong.  And it's really not that complicated.

The latest version of this fairy tale comes from the HuffPo.    

Democrats also agreed that keeping both the White House and the Senate in Democratic hands -- even without taking back the House -- would mark a turn in the nation's political makeup.  But they argued it would be for the better, signaling what they predicted would be a return to a more bipartisan, compromising style of politics that became anathema to the Tea Party movement that swept the GOP to control of the House in 2010.  
 

The article then goes on to quote Chuck Schumer, Dick Durbin and yes, Harry Reid, all saying that they believe that the defeat will cause Republicans to take a different tack.  Reid even speculates that there will be a new Republican Leader in the Senate, not Mitch McConnell.  

Here's another one from TPM:

“There has always been a group of Republicans that want to compromise. But they have been outshouted, outflanked by tea party. They’re about equal,” Schumer said. “If we keep the Senate and the president wins, and even better if we take the House, though the mainstream — there are no moderates — the mainstream Republicans are going to be strengthened. They’ve told me that. And the leaders — both [House Speaker John] Boehner and [Senate Minority Leader Mitch] McConnell sort of have a foot in each camp. But they’re pulled and dragged by the tea party. They’re going to be strengthened to come and compromise with us.”

“This is not where Republicans thought they’d be with 50 days left before election,” he said. “So everything is moving in a direction of us coming together because the obstructionist tea party is losing out.”

Is there anybody who can talk to these guys, and get them to step outside the bubble for a minute, and think about what the hell they are saying?  

Look, it's not that hard.  Sure, the Republicans may lose the Presidency, may lose a few House Seats, may sacrifice their Senate pickup chances, chasing the Tea Party, i.e., the Republican BASE vote, but that doesn't mean that those Republicans who do win are going to have any incentive to moderate; indeed, the opposite seems to be clearly where the party' BASE is headed.  

Just because the national demographics have changed, doesn't mean that the core of the party has changed.  And the Tea Party crowd is the core of the party.  Look at 2010, look at who the nominees of the party are this year; they are mostly Tea Party approved, even if the establishment "movement" Republicans don't want to admit it.  Look at Todd Akin, and Jeff Flake,  Christine O'Donnell, even Harry Reid's last opponent, Sue "Chickens for Checkups" Lowden.  The ideological, irrational, whipped-into-a-frenzy-by-the-establishment-movement-conservatives-for-two-decades crowd is NOT moderating, and WILL NOT moderate,  so long as they control the primaries.  That's why Orrin Freaking Hatch had to kiss Tea Party ass to survive the primaries in freaking UTAH!  Not that I would count Orrin Hatch as a moderate, but by Tea Party standards he was almost too moderate to win re-nomination.  Arlen Specter, Richard Lugar, Olympia Snowe, they were Way Too Moderate.  And they are gonesville.  

Here in Hideho, as in many other places in the country, the extremist wing has done to their own party what their party is trying to do to in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and across the nation; purge the dissenter's right to vote.  You can't cross party lines to participate in the Republican primary anymore, here and in a number of other states, because they've closed the primary.  NO MORE RINO'S!  has been the rallying cry.  

And without RINO's, there's no real moderating force to keep the extremists in check.  Indeed, the party is even more dependent on those voters now,  more than ever.  Here's another TPM article discussing that very point:  

The Tea Party Express is the traditional politics wing of the movement, focused on using PAC dollars to support candidates. Over at the much more grassroots Tea Party Patriots, the sense of desperation extends not only to Romney but to the Republicans in Congress.

The Tea Party Patriots has often been critical of the 112th Congress it helped elect in 2010, and with November looming that disappointment has become full-fledged depression.      . . . .

The importance of tea partiers to Romney’s eventual success cannot be overstated. With his campaign increasingly reliant on the Republican base to win, the ultra-motivated voters in the tea party movement will help him run up his totals in swing states. Romney never really had the tea party’s full-throated support, but the selection of Paul Ryan and sticking to a hardline on issues like immigration (which observers say has cost him with Hispanic voters) was supposed to keep the tea party in line.

 

The Tea Party is the Republican base, whether the establishment "movement" conservatives want to admit it or not (and whether Chuck Schumer and our Democratic leadership want to admit it or not).  

The Tea Party, in many places throughout the country, controls the primary process, and has purged moderating "RINO's" from the party ranks.  Those Republicans who get elected will be beholden to these "ultra-motivated voters" who are responsible for getting them the nomination, and hence into office.  It's basic -- you can't win the general election if you don't get the nomination.  And one beating at the polls is NOT, I'll repeat that, one beating at the polls is most definitely NOT going to be sufficient.  Not when the true believers believe that the reason they are losing is because those they are nominating aren't partisan enough.

What is it that is making these ultra-motivated, base voters "depressed?"  Disappointment that those they've elected HAVEN'T BEEN PARTISAN ENOUGH!  These are people who are true believers in Rush Limbaugh, Bill O'Reilly, Sean Hannity, Rand Paul, Scott Walker, Jan Brewer, and the like.  They are the deliberately deceived and propagandized us-or-them with-us-or-against-us idealogical dupes that Newt Gingrich, Karl Rove, the Koch brothers, Dick Armey, Jack Abramoff, and the like have created over the course of the last two to three decades, and they aren't going to simply "Wake Up" and be okay with a moderate Republican Party. In fact, the reverse is the case.  They have woken up, and they are not okay with a moderate Republican Party.  

Again, from TPM (same as previous link):  

“Over the last several weeks, I have received emails from some of our supporters who say they think the system is so broken it cannot be fixed and our efforts are futile,” Tea Party Patriots co-founder Jenny Beth Martin wrote in an email sent to supporters Tuesday. “They are angry at the Republican nominee who does not fight hard enough for our core values. They are angry at the Republican ‘leadership’ in the House who are spineless and unable to make any real spending cuts.”
 

Think that message is not getting through?  HuffPo:  Boehner: No Tax Increases Even If We Lose  

At a press conference Friday morning, a reporter asked Boehner whether Republicans were "eventually going to have to raise taxes in some way" if the president wins in November.

"No," replied Boehner. "Raising taxes, according to Ernst and Young, would threaten our economy with a loss of 700,000 jobs. Now why would I ever be for something like that? I'm not."

Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.) said that as long as Republicans retain control of the House, he'd be "really surprised if we capitulate on what’s essentially a core fundamental of conservative orthodoxy."

 

Look, just because Lindsey Graham, who now qualifies as a "moderate" in God's Own Party, wants to be relevant to the discussion again, doesn't mean that he has any influence, whatsoever at all, with what is going on with the millions and millions of the party base who have woken up to the fact that the establishment of the party cannot survive without them.  

And they know it.

Newt Gingrich today predicted that national Republican leaders, including presidential nominee Mitt Romney, will reverse their blackball treatment of Todd Akin and open the financial spigots once they "adjust to (the) reality" that he's staying in Missouri's U.S. Senate race.

"I believe by mid-October all of them will be in," Gingrich told a crowd of about 50 supporters who gathered at the Kirkwood Amtrak station this morning in advance of Gingrich's attendance at a fundraiser for Akin, the Republican Senate nominee.

. . . .
Once that door is closed, Gingrich predicted, the party leaders' vows of continued ostricization will disappear — especially after the "avalanche of money" that most assume will be coming McCaskill's way from Democratic sources.

Unseating McCaskill has long been viewed as linchpin in the GOP's Senate takeover strategy, so the Akin controversy has national ramifications.

"This is a winnable race," Gingrich said. "I don't see how any national Republicans . . . have a choice after tomorrow."

 

That's right.  Even the Monied Interests, Establishment Republicans have no choice.  The base picked this candidate, and he's staying in, and if the establishment wants to stay relevant to those in control, then the establishment needs to get on board.  Newt gets it; he's one of the architects of this "revolution."  And he knows that one measly little election is not going to change that dynamic.  

The only way the Republican Party, as a whole, will be able to moderate, is if they lose enough elections, enough entire cycles, that the "ultra-motivated" base loses their motivation, and gives up and quits turning out to vote.  Which in turn means that the Republican Party will have to shrink even more, before it can re-orient, and begin climbing out of the hole it's in.  

That's not a one-cycle job.  That's not a two-cycle job.  That's a decade(s) long job.  And until then, the Republican Party is not going to moderate.  Period.  

Somebody needs to get that message through to the out-of-touch bobbleheads in our own party.  

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Comment Preferences

  •  Moderate Republican: Rest in peace. 1854-1994. (11+ / 0-)

    It's sad that too many Democrats and Democratic leaning independents haven't gotten that through their heads.

  •  This should be recd 1000 times (14+ / 0-)

    Why would the Republicans change? They pitched a 2-year temper tantrum from Nov '08 to Nov '10 and won a landslide at the midterms. It worked before - why change now?

    After all:
    1. They only have to wait out Obama for 4 more years, and
    2. There is no home for moderates in today's Republican party - ask Richard Lugar and Olympia Snowe.

    NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

    by bear83 on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 10:47:04 AM PDT

    •  They'll wait for the next mid-term. (8+ / 0-)

      It's only two more years, and they'll be hoping to gain seats in the House and re-take the Senate in anticipation of a big, sweeping win in 2016.  

      It's not really about strategy, though.  Their base is convinced of their righteousness, and convinced that it really is their way or the highway, and they want that view represented.  And if they have to purge the RINO's, so be it.  They just won't believe that the ideology they are fed 24-7 from Rush and Fox News and the pulpit is not the majority view, because that's part of the ideology -- they are the majority, because they are the majority, and therefore, if they are not getting enough votes, it's because they can't turn out their own vote; so they have to suppress the vote of others, to allow their "true" righteous majority to rule.  It's tautological.  

      We are the first to look up and know, with absolute certainty, that the sword we ourselves have forged, is real.

      by Jbearlaw on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 10:56:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The cliche about generals (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Jbearlaw, bear83, George3

        always fighting the last war applies just as well to the Village and to Party leaders (on both sides).

        The assumption that Republicans will have to moderate if they lose assumes that (1) that is the rational response to losing and (2) the Republican Party will think and proceed rationally.

        The inaccuracy of (2) is evident every day, in spades. How can they not see that?

        And even (1) ignores the truths of the last two/four years. The Republican base have gotten a lot of what they want by being outrageous and obstructive. And if their man doesn't win this time, the same tactics may still blunt anything Democrats want to do.

        Irrational wingnuts can rationally take the long view.

        A definition is the enclosing of a wilderness of ideas within a wall of words -- Samuel Butler

        by A Mad Mad World on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 11:32:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I remember an old joke . . . (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          A Mad Mad World, bear83, George3
          When the body was first made, all the parts wanted to be the boss.
          The brain said to the other parts of the body, Since I control everything and do all the thinking, therefore I should be boss!
          And the feet said, Since I carry Man where he wants to go and get him in position to do what the brain wants, so I should be boss!
          And the hands said, Since I do all the work and earn all the money to keep the rest of you going, I should be boss instead!
          And the eyes said, Since I must look out for all of you and tell you where danger lurks, surely I should be boss!

          And so were the mouth, the lungs and the heart arguing over who should be the boss and finally the asshole spoke up and demanded that he should be made boss.

          All of the other parts broke out in laughter at the idea of an asshole being made boss. The asshole was very angry and felt so insulted that he decided to block himself off and refused to let anything come out of it.
          Soon after several days and weeks, the brain was feverish, the eyes crossed and ached, the feet became too weak to walk, the hands hung limply at the sides, the mouth couldn't eat anything, and the lungs and the heart struggled to keep going... Finally all of them pleaded with the brain to relent and let the asshole be boss over all the other parts.

          And so it happened. All the other parts resumed their functions and the asshole just bossed and passed out a lot of shit...

          The moral of the story is: You don't have to have a brain to be boss, just an asshole!

           

          I think it's from Aesop's American Government, right?

          We are the first to look up and know, with absolute certainty, that the sword we ourselves have forged, is real.

          by Jbearlaw on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 11:39:58 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  AND on top of all of your alient points.... (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jbearlaw, blueoasis, bear83, jedennis, George3

    ....the president will still be a DEM....oh, and BLACK....a BLACK DEM.  Oh yeah, they'll play nice.  Yeah, right.  Some idiots never learn.

    Aldus Shrugged : The Antidote to Ayn Rand. Buy ALDUS SHRUGGED on amazon, and ALL royalties will be donated directly to barackobama.com HELP ME TO HELP THE BIG O!!! And follow the fun: @floydbluealdus1

    by Floyd Blue on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 10:50:40 AM PDT

    •  oops, that was SALIENT... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jbearlaw, blueoasis, bear83

      I was not attempting to call you a kenyan or anything like that.  You were probably born in Hawaii, or in Michigan, where the trees are perfect.  (Although I hear the trees on Maui are traditionally wonderful...wowie).

      I'm gonna have to fire my editor again!  I have burned through four editors in the last 8 weeks!  Thank god, my corporation is a person, and I enjoy firing non-corporate people.

      Aldus Shrugged : The Antidote to Ayn Rand. Buy ALDUS SHRUGGED on amazon, and ALL royalties will be donated directly to barackobama.com HELP ME TO HELP THE BIG O!!! And follow the fun: @floydbluealdus1

      by Floyd Blue on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 10:52:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Here's hoping Obama's coat tails are wide (6+ / 0-)

    enough in the House and Senate races to make the tea party a moot point.

    Never promote men who seek after a state-established religion; it is spiritual tyranny--the worst of despotism. It is turnpiking the way to heaven by human law, in order to establish ministerial gates to collect toll. John Leland

    by J Edward on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 10:52:00 AM PDT

  •  Exactly. No negotiating with lunatics. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mconvente, Jbearlaw, bear83

    The only way to end Republican obstructionism is to thrash them at the voting boot, do away with the filibuster, and ignore them completely in the coming Congressional term.

    You had your chance, guys. 2000 to 2008. We're still cleaning up the colossal mountain of raw sewage and offal you left behind. Now go away and STFU.

  •  This is Dem's biggest weakness (6+ / 0-)

    It's not enough to prove that the other side is cheating.  Americans would rather elect winning cheaters than ethical idealists who can be pushed around.

  •  You're absolutely right. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jbearlaw, blueoasis

    Let's hope it's all just talk to appeal to swing voters.  I can't believe they would fall for the same Republican scam again.  You can't negotiate in good faith with those people.  You just have to take it to the people and crush them in elections.

    •  I fear it's cover for the "Grand Bargain." (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blueoasis, bear83

      Look at who's putting this crap out:  Schumer and Durbin are both in favor of the so-called Grand Bargain, and the propaganda is coming full on across the MSM that the time for a GB will be during the lame duck session.  This just ties into the narrative that the Republican's, having moderated due to the election, will now reluctantly agree to go along with the Democrats, and give in on getting 10-1 cuts-to-tax-increases to "solve" our "debt crisis."  By gutting SS and Medicare.  

      We are the first to look up and know, with absolute certainty, that the sword we ourselves have forged, is real.

      by Jbearlaw on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 11:17:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nope they won't might as well win as much (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jbearlaw

    as possible.

    They're evil and they don't work for us.

    The radical Republican party is the party of oppression, fear, loathing and above all more money and power for the people who robbed us.

    by a2nite on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 11:11:30 AM PDT

  •  At this point we should not focus on what happens (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    progressivist, NamelessGenXer

    after the election. Mitt Romney cannot be the next President and that needs to be where all of our energy is focused. Congress will continue to be inept and useless no matter who wins the election. If Obama does win, the minute after the election we need to flood him and other Democratic congressmembers with calls and letters demanding they stand up to the Republican bullies and obstructionists.

    "As we celebrate mediocrity all the boys upstairs want to see how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free"

    by Tim D M on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 11:11:31 AM PDT

  •  The Tea Partiers will just see Romney's loss (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jbearlaw, blueoasis, bear83

    as proof he wasn't conservative enough. I don't think they're through running the GOP into the ground quite yet.

    Fun awaits.

  •  I think they already know that but (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, Jbearlaw

    they can't present a case for continued gridlock.  Unfortunatley the media makes it seem as if the gridlock is 99% the fault of the President's and the fact that he doesn't play golf with enough republicans or drink enough beer with them.  The answer is to regain the House and upgrade the Senate. At a minimum we have to leave the GOP with a razor thin majority in the House.  

  •  Believing Republicans will change = (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jbearlaw

    battered wife syndrome. Will Democrats ever learn?

    NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

    by bear83 on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 12:01:31 PM PDT

  •  On the other hand... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jbearlaw

    Perhaps the real question is what will the money do. Maybe the Koch's and Adelson's et al will be so mad at having pissed so much money away this cycle that they'll decide to adjust their strategy. And where the money goes, the politicians will follow.

  •  everything much slower while RW radio is ignored (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jbearlaw

    it's much too loud and coordinated, it's why the GOP and the country are where we are today and we don't have time to keep ignoring it.

    i agree, the GOP won't moderate as is - team limbaugh can still keep them in line, as dictated by teh think tanks using him and the others to create pro corporate conntituencies

    we can't have national scale rational discussions about the major issues as long as that talk radio monopoly is ignored.

    and the talk radio base won't allow moderation unless RW stations in every blue community are shamed and boycotted and protested until they get real.

    This is a list of 76 universities for Rush Limbaugh that endorse global warming denial, racism, sexism, and partisan lying by broadcasting sports on Limbaugh radio stations.

    by certainot on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 01:40:17 PM PDT

  •  After (0+ / 0-)

    the election, THEY will still be republicans...and you just can't trust republicans...There's an old saying, even the dumbest dog will learn after awhile...but, it seems, the dumbest dems just can't learn after awhile....repeat after me...republicans are bad for america...republicans are always bad for our country....

  •  On the budget, the Republicans have to compromise. (0+ / 0-)

    Not only will the attitude of Republicans change if Obama is re-elected. It will probably have to change even if Romney is elected, so long as Democrats keep hold of the Senate. That's because of the looming prospect of sequestration, which is giving Republicans fits right now. See, Republicans want to protect government spending as much as anybody, they just favor different programs. And they cannot allow the scheduled defense cuts to take place. But they only way they can avoid that is to agree to some tax increases.

    Three Republican senators (McCain, Graham and Ayotte) have already signed a letter this week pledging support to a balanced deficit-reduction deal. That means there has to be compromise. This result was cooked into the pie when the budget deal was struck last year.

    So imagine the irony, in the impossible event that Romney is elected, when the first act of a Romney administration would be to sign a bill raising taxes. How would he explain that one? Well, I know I said I would repeal Obamacare on day one, but actually the first thing I have to do is raise some taxes otherwise we're going to have to close down large parts of the military.

    You are right that it is not in the nature of today's Republican party to compromise, but necessity is going to force Republicans to act against their nature.

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