This is what it looks like when a race breaks open. President Obama has seen favorable poll numbers in all three states, but the Ohio and Florida results are shocking blowouts.
The New York Times, in collaboration with Quinnipiac University and CBS News, is tracking the presidential race with recurring polls in six states. In Ohio — which no Republican has won the presidency without — Mr. Obama is leading Mr. Romney 53 percent to 43 percent in the poll. In Florida, the president leads Mr. Romney 53 to 44 percent in the poll.To recap:
The surveys, which had margins of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for each candidate, also included a Pennsylvania poll, where Mr. Obama is leading Mr. Romney by 12 percentage points.
Ohio - Obama +10 (53-43)
Florida - Obama +9 (53-44)
Pennsylvania - Obama +12 (54-42)
These are likely voters, folks. Support well over 50 for Obama, huge margins, and only 3-4 percent undecided all three states, two of which in Ohio and Florida that Romney must have. If these results are right, you can stick a fork in Romney.
Obama also has approvals of at least 50 in each state:
The president's job approval rating in Florida and Ohio is 50 percent, with 47 percent disapproving. His approval rating in Pennsylvania is 51 percent, with 45 percent disapproving. Romney is viewed more unfavorably than favorably in all three states.Is it the economy, stupid?
Mr. Obama holds six point leads in Ohio and Pennsylvania on the question of who would do a better job on the economy, and a five point lead on that question in Florida.The polls also show good results for all three Senate seats:
The poll also found that Democratic Senate candidates are leading their Republican opponents in all three states. In Florida, Bill Nelson leads Connie Mack 53 percent to 39 percent; in Ohio, Sherrod Brown leads Josh Mandel 50 percent to 40 percent; and in Pennsylvania, Bob Casey leads Tom Smith 49 percent to 43 percent.Polling details:
This poll was conducted by telephone from Quinnipiac University's interviewing facility September 18--24, 2012. The number of likely voters interviewed in each state is 1,196 in Florida, 1,162 in Ohio and 1,180 in Pennsylvania.
The Ohio result is close to but even better than the Washington Post poll released yesterday which found Obama up 52-44.
This poll has the best result yet for Obama in Florida. You have to go back to January in the thick of the Republican Primary to find Obama with a lead of better than +6 when Marist had him +8. Still, this follows a string of good polls in Florida, some even from R leaning outfits, of which this is the seventh straight with Obama leading. The Quinnipiac result pretty much explodes the expectations of where the race stands in Florida.