9/26/ 2012 Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Simulation Model:Obama 342 EV; 100% Win Probability
The model assumes that the election is held today.
2012 Presidential True Vote and Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast Model
Obama has extended his expected Electoral Vote by gaining the lead in the latest North Carolina and Iowa polls. He has a 49-44% lead in the latest state polls with 342 expected electoral votes based on the state win probabilities. He is leading the Real Clear Politics National Average by nearly 4%. If the election were held today, the Monte Carlo electoral vote simulation indicates that he would have a 100% probability of winning the election (he won all 500 election simulation trials). But there are six weeks to so. Will there be an October surprise?
Approximately 7% of voters are undecided and may hold the key to the election. I suspect they are mostly Democrats disillusioned with Obama but scared by Romney and Ryan. The model currently assumes an equal split of the undecided vote. If undecided voters break for Obama, he will be in a commanding position to win re-election. He is leading the Real Clear Politics National Average by nearly 4%.
The Likely Voter (LV) polls are anticipate the inevitable election fraud reduction in Obama’s estimated 56.3% True Vote share and 402 electoral votes.