Let's set the stage
Obama won 365 EVs in '08. Those states currently have 359.
Subtract 12 IN with 11 and for now the 2nd CD of NE
that gives a baseline of 347 electoral votes.
What I am going to do is list the battlegrounds of the states that Obama won in increasing probability of Obama winning, in each case showing the percentage that Nate Silver now shows and the electoral vote and giving a running total of EVs switched to Romney and the EV O v R
STATE O% EVs Running EVS O R
NC 35 15 15 332 206
FL 67 29 44 303 235
CO 72 9 53 294 244
VA 74 13 66 281 257
IA 77 6 72 275 263
NH 79 4 76 271 267
NOTE - those are ALL of the battleground states where currently Obama's chances are less than 80%
The remaining states are
OH 82 18
NV 83 6
WI 88 10
Realistically, I think once it becomes more clear to the Obama people that they are reasonably sure of at least 270 electoral votes the map will expand, and it may map onto competitive Senate races
States with competitive Senate races
AZ
MT
ND
MO
States w/o Competitive Senate Races
SC
GA
SD
Can the debates change the current makeup? I think at best the first debate might stop the bleeding. Except I do not see Obama being outperformed by Romney, and at this point Romney has to do several things
1. appear presidential - he gets some but not all of that by being on same page
2. sound credible - might be harder, especially if he keeps using platitudes w/o details
3. connect with people - does anyone here REALLY think he will do that better in a debate than he has done so far?
Not much of a diary, but I thought with Nate's update percentages state by state including the most recent polls it was worth reexamining the target list and what it means.
Peace.