There haven't been many changes in the early voting states since yesterday.
North Carolina has received about 1000 more ballots, but it hasn't moved anything.
Iowa hasn't reported any ballots since the weekend started. There is a new poll from The Des Moines Register that is likely more accurate than the poll I have been using. So far, they have not posted crosstabs, so I can't use it to estimate votes. If they post the crosstabs, I will update the prediction using that poll.
Several people have asked about a RedState article that got some attention. The article implies Democrats in Ohio are in trouble because ballot requests show a lack of enthusiasm. I will share some thoughts on that after the jump.
So, what's up with Ohio?
Let me first explain the meat of RedState's claim. What they are suggesting is that Democratic voters are less enthusiastic about the election than Republican voters. The reason, they say, is because there have been fewer absentee ballot requests by Democratic voters in 2012 than in 2008. Meanwhile, there have been more absentee ballot requests by Republican voters in 2012 than in 2008. So, if fewer Democratic voters are requesting ballots this year, we must be in trouble, right? The answer is, it is difficult to say.
First, even they admit that despite the lower number of requests by Democratic voters compared to 2008, there have still been more requests than Republican voters in 2012.
2012 2008 % of 2008
Total 601208 740725 81%
Democrat 177155 288270 61%
Republican 145560 144300 101%
Of the voters they have record of, 177155 Democratic voters have requested ballots and 145560 Republican voters have requested ballots. No matter how you look at it, 177155 is still greater than 145560. So that is good for us.
That being said, ~100,000 fewer request is somewhat concerning. It's difficult, however, to really tell if this is a genuine lack of enthusiasm or just a lack of sufficient data.
This data is being pulled directly off of the Ohio county election sites and compiled into a spreadsheet here. That is a perfectly credible source, but it is also incomplete. If you look at the spreadsheet where they are collecting their data, there are 24 20 counties for which they have no data at all and at least a dozen counties with incomplete data.
Counties with no data
Adams, Clermont, Fairfield, Gallia, Guernsey, Hancock, Hocking, Huron, Jackson, Marion, Medina, Miami, Morrow, Noble, Ottawa, Perry, Sandusky, Scioto, Stark, Wyandot
What is cause for concern is that the missing counties do not help us, at all. On average, in 2008, McCain won these counties by a margin of 15.3%. You can find that data in the spreadsheet I have posted
here.
These 24 20 counties accounted for 670,176 votes, which is ~13% of the electorate. ((670176/5295486)*100)
So, what does that mean?
Obama beat McCain in Ohio by 206830 votes in 2008. So, if 100,000 Obama voters from 2008 don't show up at all in 2012, that is certainly cause for concern. That being said, it is hard to make any real conclusions from the currently available data, since it is very much incomplete.
What it comes down to, as always is GOTV.
Just because 100,000 people didn't request absentee ballots doesn't mean they aren't voting. But, maybe it would be best if we assume they are not and work that much harder to run up 100,000 more votes between now and November 6.