This is a very exciting week in early voting. New York, Florida and Connecticut all start accepting absentee ballots. Ohio has been accepting absentee ballots for a while, but their in-person early voting starts tomorrow. This is where we should really start to see how the race is unfolding.
Over the weekend, I addressed the RedState blog claiming that there is evidence that Ohio Democratic voters lack enthusiasm, based on absentee ballot requests. My take is here. Some Kossaks rightly pointed out that many Democratic voters in Ohio do not trust John Husted, the Ohio SOS, and are choosing to use in-person voting rather than mailing an absentee ballot. Once in-person voting starts tomorrow, we will have a much clearer picture of this.
The adjusted stats for states where early voting demographics are available can be found after the jump.
Estimates are made using the early voting statistics gathered by Dr. Michael McDonald at George Mason University and combining it with most recent polling in the state.
Total number of early ballots received: 44663
IOWA reports 24,304 ballots cast as of Monday morning.
MAINE reports 48 returned ballots as of Monday morning.
NORTH CAROLINA reports 13,500 returned ballots as of Monday morning. (As of Monday morning there are 7 non-reporting counties.)
OHIO 10 counties report 268 returned ballots as of Sunday morning.
SOUTH CAROLINA reports 1,753 returned ballots as of Thursday afternoon.
SOUTH DAKOTA reports 4,790 returned ballots as of Saturday morning.
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North Carolina
North Carolina has received 13500 ballots. There is also a new ARG poll that I will be using to predict the results. This poll has Romney ahead by 4 points. So far, the majority of ballots received in NC are Republican, so this will shift the results more toward Romney. Though, I doubt the accuracy of this poll. It shows Romney getting 19% of the Democratic vote and 55% of the independent vote. Those numbers just don't feel right. But, I want to stick with using the most recent polling and let the numbers adjust themselves as more polls become available.
Using this new poll has caused an interesting change in the results. One of the numbers I include is an estimate of the raw number of votes. Since this new ARG poll heavily favors Romney, the updated prediction shows Obama having fewer votes since yesterday, even though more ballots have been received.
Breakdown of Early Voting Ballots to Date
GOP |
DEM |
IND/OTH |
50.4% |
30.4% |
19.2% |
Candidate |
Estimated votes |
Estimated % |
Obama |
4823 |
35.7% |
Romney |
8125 |
60.2% |
Iowa
Iowa reports 24304 ballots returns, this is almost double what it was before the weekend. At that time, it was 13812. The returned ballots are still heavily Democratic, but have shifted a small amount toward the Republicans and Independents. I am also using a new poll to estimate the results. The WeAskAmerica poll has Obama ahead 4 points in Iowa. They also find a large segment of undecided Independents. The Independents who have decided favor Obama 45 - 38.
Breakdown of Early Voting Ballots to Date
GOP |
DEM |
IND/OTH |
21.4% |
61.5% |
17% |
Candidate |
Estimated votes |
Estimated % |
Obama |
15920 |
65.5% |
Romney |
6821 |
28.1% |
Maine
Not enough information. Maine only has 48 ballots, so far.
Breakdown of Early Voting Ballots to Date
GOP |
DEM |
IND/OTH |
37.5% |
39.6% |
22.9% |
Ohio
Ohio has received 268 ballots. No demographics on those ballots have been made available. The bulk of the ballots received are from Franklin county, which, in 2008, favored Barack Obama over John McCain 60-39.
South Carolina
South Carolina has received 1753 ballots. There is not enough information about SC to make estimates at this time.
South Dakota
South Dakota has received 4790 ballots. There is no demographic information from SD.
For more information on methodology, please see my original diary here. The raw math is here.