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There's a nice, new electoral map graphic on realclearpolitics today.  If you believe what this map is saying, then I do not see a path to the White House for Romney.

The polls are widening, the swing states are finding their identity and the debates are around the corner.  If the leaning states don't absolutely change direction, Romney has to pitch a shutout on the remaining swing states.

We already know that between FL, VA and NC, at least ONE of those states are going the way of Obama.  With that understanding, this race is basically over.  We're going to listen to Romney impersonate Big Brother's Zingbot over the next couple of weeks, but that isn't going to change the electoral map.

Is this really over?  How confident are you?

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Comment Preferences

  •  It's not over until that lady sings.... (7+ / 0-)

    she maybe warming up but we've got to get out the vote!! It feels good to know our guy is up but we can't get overconfident and think "Oh Prez O is going 2 win so I don't need to vote". Nope every vote counts.  If we do that then on the day after election day we can breathe a little easier.  And believe me we all need to get our rest on that day because if we know one thing is for sure...those damn republicans will double down on their obstructionism and Citizen's United will gear up for the real take-over of our electorate. 2016!!

    •  Missouri (0+ / 0-)

      It is interesting that the RCP map now has Missouri in the "tossup" category.  Does anyone else categorize it as such?  Is Todd Akin starting to do that much damage to the Republican brand?

      “I believe all Southern liberals come from the same starting point--race. Once you figure out they are lying to you about race, you start to question everything.” ― Molly Ivins

      by RoIn on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 02:29:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Have not seen ads for Obama in Missouri yet (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RoIn

        Nor for Akin, even tho I DVRd some network shows just to scan the ads. I do see yard signs for McCaskill and Akin, but the Akin ones are tiny and look like the campaign is broke. I'm in the more Republican friendly part of KC north of the river.

  •  Nate Silver (0+ / 0-)

    He now outlines various scenarios of how there could be a tie in the Electoral College thus throwing the election into the House of Representatives.  He does this even though he himself admits that the chances of this happening are roughly 0.6%.  But hey, that's up from his previous estimate of 0.3% so the chances have doubled!

    Is he that bored that he has to do this?

    “I believe all Southern liberals come from the same starting point--race. Once you figure out they are lying to you about race, you start to question everything.” ― Molly Ivins

    by RoIn on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 02:27:26 PM PDT

    •  let's hope so; I thought the headlne was a (0+ / 0-)

      bit of a teaser.

      •  2004 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        207wickedgood

        I'll never forget Wolf Blitzer on CNN during the 2004 campaign doing a big report on what would happen if there were a tie in the EC.  He had this big gleam in his eye the whole time he was going over the scenario that would produce  a tie and how it would be resolved.

        In other words he, and the rest of the media (who often did stories on the same topic) desperately wanted another Florida 2000 recount.  I guess that was probably the point that I realized that for people in the media the news was about their entertainment not reporting on what was going on in the world.

        “I believe all Southern liberals come from the same starting point--race. Once you figure out they are lying to you about race, you start to question everything.” ― Molly Ivins

        by RoIn on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 03:25:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Disappointed with Georgia (0+ / 0-)

    I thought they perhaps may be coming around. A little? I didn't expect him to compete, but 39%? Damn. I thought northerners were starting to creep in down there. Oh well.

  •  Nevada (0+ / 0-)

    Why haven't they tipped Nevada to Obama yet?  He's over 5 points on average and i thought that was when they shifted to the Lean status.

  •  All in Obama's favor ... (0+ / 0-)

    I like that all the moves in the last two weeks have been in Obama's favor, but one (Georgia went from Lean Romney to Likely Romney.)

    I like the way it is trending! :)

    A mind like a book, has to be open to function properly.

    by falconer520 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 03:18:26 PM PDT

  •  All in President Obama's Favor ... (0+ / 0-)

    I like how all the moves in the last two weeks have been in President Obama's favor, but one (Georgia went from Leans Romney to Likely Romney.)

    A mind like a book, has to be open to function properly.

    by falconer520 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 03:22:54 PM PDT

  •  Throw the bomb, go for the TD (0+ / 0-)

    Be like Belechik and run the damn score up.

    And go for the QB sack - facemask into the ground.....

    FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

    by Roger Fox on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 05:09:40 PM PDT

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