Skip to main content

I'll be honest, I wasn't in the mood to do this today and not many people are paying attention, so I was going to skip it. Then, I figured it might be a good palate cleanser for those who are paying attention.

The first order of business is a correction. The stats I report in these diaries come from Dr. Michael McDonald at George Mason University. He has done an amazing job aggregating and processing the data from across the country. His data has been mainly solid, but yesterday there was an error. He over-reported voting from Franklin County, Ohio. He corrected it last night, so that data should be accurate today.

The adjusted stats from Ohio still look very strong. So far, 16,185 voters have cast ballots, either in person or through absentee ballots, with 49 counties reporting.

Here is what it looked like in Franklin County on Tuesday morning:

Young people actually camped out to vote. This would seem to blow away the idea that Democratic voters and young people are not enthusiastic about voting this year.

Updated stats for NC and IA after the jump.

Estimates are made using the early voting statistics gathered by Dr. Michael McDonald at George Mason University and combining it with most recent polling in the state.

Total number of early ballots received: 143,260.

CALIFORNIA reports 512 ballots cast as of Tuesday evening (only 11 counties reporting, excludes LA and other large counties)
IOWA reports 94,135 ballots cast as of Thursday morning.
MAINE reports 48 returned ballots as of Monday morning.
NORTH CAROLINA reports 22,301 returned ballots as of Thursday morning (with 2 non-reporting counties).
OHIO 49 counties report 16,185 returned ballots as of Wednesday evening.
SOUTH CAROLINA reports 1,753 returned ballots as of Thursday afternoon.
SOUTH DAKOTA reports 8,326 returned ballots as of Thursday morning.

North Carolina
Still using the ARG poll. Absentee ballots from NC are still coming primarily from older Republican voters. There are still 2 counties in NC not reporting.

Breakdown of Early Voting Ballots to Date

52.8% 28.6% 18.6%
Candidate Estimated votes Estimated %
Obama 7,640 34.3%
Romney 13,737 61.6%

As of this morning, Iowans have returned 94,135 ballots. This is ~25,000 more since yesterday. This is the roughly the same increase seen between Monday and Tuesday. So, at this point, at least, 25,000 Iowans are voting a day, or 25,000 ballots are being counted a day. So far, these ballots have been heavily Democratic.  Still using the WeAskAmerica poll.

Breakdown of Early Voting Ballots to Date

18.7% 63.4% 17.8%
Candidate Estimated votes Estimated %
Obama 63,336 67.3%
Romney 24,720 26.3%

Comparing total votes for NC and IA, the popular vote has Obama up 61-33. This isn't really indicative of anything, but it is still fun to look at.

For more information on methodology, please see my original diary here. The raw math is here.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site