I have the deepest respect for Nate Silver and this 538 piece is incredible!
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/...
Wednesday, we all thought the election was over. Thursday it was Romney's to loose Friday's job report What an emotional roller coaster. Thank G-d For Nate Silver to sort it out
Please allow me to put this quote ffrom the article:
The drop in unemployment alone is no guarantee of re-election — there was also a considerable drop in unemployment in 1976, and Gerald Ford lost.
However, the FiveThirtyEight economic index, which accounts for the payrolls numbers along with six other economic data series, would project a narrow re-election for Mr. Obama by about 3 percentage points — similar to Mr. Bush’s margin over John Kerry in 2004. Especially with the Friday jobs report, the economic numbers now seem just strong enough to make the incumbent a favorite for re-election, based on the way the public has evaluated their presidents historically.
I’m less inclined to predict what immediate effect the numbers will have on the polls — whether Friday’s news outweighs, for instance, Mr. Obama’s poor performance in Wednesday night’s debate. Mr. Obama did not win the election on Friday any more than he lost it on Wednesday.
But for the first time in a long while, Mr. Obama should be happy if the discussion turns toward the economy.