Welcome, friends. The purpose of this regular series is to promote enthusiasm and action among Daily Kos members. Romney will very likely out-fundraise President Obama. However, we believe that we can still win if (1) we remain competitive financially, and (2) we volunteer our time and energy to GOTV (through canvassing, phonebanking, LTE, ...).
WASHINGTON -- Early Monday morning, Gallup released the latest results of its national daily tracking poll, showing President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney in a tie, with both men supported by 47 percent of registered voters. Just three days before, Gallup also noted, Obama had led Romney by five percentage points (50 percent to 45 percent).Mark Blumenthal at HuffPo
Then at 1 p.m. Eastern time on Monday, Gallup updated its daily tracking results again, this time showing Obama once more leading Romney by 5 points (50 percent to 45 percent).
Given the consistency prior to the debates, the latest result at least suggests a slight rebound for Obama on Saturday and Sunday.
The Rasmussen Reports automated, recorded-voice tracking poll showed a similar uptick for Obama on its latest three-day rolling average, published on Monday.
Gallup's daily tracking of the president's job approval rating is also reported on a three-day, not seven-day, rolling average. It suggests a similar pattern: Obama's numbers bottomed out in the interviews conducted Thursday to Saturday, Oct. 4 to 6, and were better on Sunday, Oct. 7.
My conclusion from all of this is that Romney got a real bounce from the debate, but by Saturday and Sunday it was flattening out. Romney gained a little, but far from the amount he needed to make a difference.
My second story shows somewhat similar conclusions from Nate Silver:
But polling released immediately after the debate seemed to suggest that Mr. Romney had drawn into a rough national tie.NY Times, Nate Silver, 538 Blog
By the weekend, however — after the release of a favorable jobs report last Friday — Mr. Romney’s bounce seemed to be receding some. Tracking polls released on Monday by Gallup and Rasmussen Reports actually showed a shift back toward Mr. Obama, although another poll by Pew Research showed Mr. Romney with a four-point lead among likely voters.
Polling data is often very noisy, and not all polls use equally rigorous methodology. But the polls, as a whole, remain consistent with the idea that they may end up settling where they were before the conventions, with Mr. Obama ahead by about two points. Such an outcome would be in line with what history and the fundamentals of the economy would lead you to expect.
In some ways, then, the election might not be quite so unpredictable as it appears. There was reason to believe that Mr. Obama’s numbers would fade some after his convention — and the first debate has quite often been a time when the challenger drew the race closer.
My third story is an interesting article/blog post that wonders if Romney's lying performance hurt him with some women voters because it was all about male agression:
And this brings us to the problem of Romney’s “win” in the debate: it came in an aggressive form, without much of a compassion issue agenda, and with some implicit cues that he is not particularly sensitive to disadvantaged Americans who are the targets of compassion policies.The Monkey Cage: Why Romney’s Debate Win May Be a Loss among Female Voters
First, anecdotal evidence suggests his aggressive and forceful debating style may not have appealed to women. ABC News reported that “a focus group of Walmart moms in Las Vegas… revealed… a broad sense that Romney was the victor. Even so, the women didn’t walk away seeing Romney in a very positive light… the women used words like ‘rude,’ ‘pushy’ and assertive’ — and when asked to clarify if assertive was positive or negative, the woman who offered that description said it was negative.” While those same women didn’t seem too impressed by Obama, either, he’s not the candidate that needed to win them over.
Second, in terms of issues, Romney only nodded toward compassion politics. He mentioned education, but unlike Bush, he framed it not in compassion terms—that children have a right to a good education—but in competition terms: “Education is key, particularly [for] the future of our economy.”
Finally, several of Romney’s comments implicitly signaled a lack of compassion.
The article is not long and well worth reading the whole thing.
My fourth story is that President Obama dedicated the Cesar E. Chavez National Monument today. Cesar Chavez was an American hero.
President Obama on Monday officially dedicated the Cesar E. Chavez National Monument in the Central Valley where the farmworker labor movement took place.LA Times:Obama dedicates Cesar E. Chavez National Monument
The site in Keene in Kern County served as both home and operational headquarters for Chavez and his United Farm Workers movement.
“It's a story of natural wonders and modern marvels, of fierce battles and quiet progress. But it's also a story of people, of determined, fearless, hopeful people who have always been willing to devote their lives to making this country a little more just and a little more free,” Obama said.
For those who want to learn more about Cesar Chavez, go here: United Farm Workers: The Story of Cesar Chavez
In 1962 Cesar founded the National Farm Workers Association, later to become the United Farm Workers - the UFW. He was joined by Dolores Huerta and the union was born.Bonus Story: It's not really about President Obama, who is a White Sox fan, but the DEFENDING WORLD CHAMPION ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (trademark pending :-) ) just did to the Washington Nationals what President Obama is going to do to Mitt Romney on the first Tuesday in November: give him a good, old-fashioned ass kicking.
Cesar was willing to sacrifice his own life so that the union would continue and that violence was not used. Cesar fasted many times. In 1968 Cesar went on a water only, 25 day fast. He repeated the fast in 1972 for 24 days, and again in 1988, this time for 36 days. What motivated him to do this? He said, Farm workers everywhere are angry and worried that we cannot win without violence. We have proved it before through persistence, hard work, faith and willingness to sacrifice. We can win and keep our own self-respect and build a great union that will secure the spirit of all people if we do it through a rededication and recommitment to the struggle for justice through nonviolence.
ST. LOUIS - The Nationals scored first. And then things went downhill fast.
Starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann singled in the top of the second inning, driving in shortstop Ian Desmond and giving Washington a 1-0 lead. But in the bottom of the inning, Zimmermann gave up five hits and four runs, and the rout was on.
The Cardinals bullpen kept the Nationals mostly in check the rest of the way, and St. Louis kept the pedal to the metal, hitting four home runs, two of them by Carlos Beltran, and winning 12-4.
Go Obama! Fired Up and Ready to Go!
And GO CARDS!!!!
And that's the Obama news for tonight.
Link to Transcripts and Documents.
Donate to re-elect Obama/Biden through ActBlue:
ObamaNightlyNews for Obama/Biden 2012.
Buy Obama/Biden gear at the Obama 2012 Store.
Share two sites that help voters in each state:
Obama Nightly News posts every night at 9:00 ET / 6:00 PT