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The right wing is going crazy over the jobs numbers, claiming that somebody cooked the books. There are dark references to the "Chicago guys" doing anything to win, and pundit after pundit said the numbers had to be faked.

So, here's the question -- is ADP part of the conspiracy?

ADP, the payroll and business services giant, has been doing its own jobs report since 2006. As explained in the FAQs, "The ADP National Employment Report is a monthly estimate of total nonfarm private employment in the United States derived from aggregated and anonymous ADP payroll data."

As noted by Daily Kos diarist Dagman, the ADP report serves as a secondary data stream that can be compared to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report. The two reports have tracked right along for month after month, thus giving a "second opinion" to the BLS data.

So my question is simple: since the ADP report that came out on October 3 supports the BLS report that came out on October 5, how do the conspiracy theorists explain that? Do they think the "Chicago guys" bribed someone at ADP? Do they think that ADP has been fudging their numbers since 2006, just so they could backstop a president six years later?

No, Jack and Donald, there is no conspiracy. There is just a slowly healing economy, a bunch of math geeks at BLS doing their job, and a President that deserves reelection.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tips for data points (6+ / 0-)

    and for shutting up CTs when they need shutting up.

    Bruce in Louisville
    Visit me at,, or
    Follow me on Twitter @brucewriter or @ThreePols

    by bmaples on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:40:53 PM PDT

  •  Just for fun ... (0+ / 0-)

    ... here is the chart showing the ADP data and the BLS data. You can play with the chart at

    Bruce in Louisville
    Visit me at,, or
    Follow me on Twitter @brucewriter or @ThreePols

    by bmaples on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:47:01 PM PDT

    •  but (0+ / 0-)

      is the graph showing the household survey or the  payrolls report?

      it was the household survey that caused the kerfuffle, the payrolls report was in line. Usually adp is compared to the payrolls report, and if so, these graphs are irrelevant.

      Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable. - JFK

      by taonow on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:59:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Frank Lautenberg was the CEO of ADP (0+ / 0-)

    Some people will think so.  

    He only employs his passion who can make no use of his reason. - Cicero

    by SpamNunn on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:51:38 PM PDT

    •  Yes, but (0+ / 0-)

      He left before entering politics (so, 1988);


      The most recent ADP political activity I can find at was to Republicans.

      Bruce in Louisville
      Visit me at,, or
      Follow me on Twitter @brucewriter or @ThreePols

      by bmaples on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 06:59:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Only 1988? I think 1982 which is 30 years removed (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        I think Frank has been a Senator since before I was born - ha ha.   Didn't he serve three terms, retire for one, and then run again (and win)?  I think he is in his fourth term.

        •  And thanks to you (0+ / 0-)

          for the original diary and idea. I didn't even know ADP did such a report until reading your diary. I thought it deserved more traction than it got.

          Bruce in Louisville
          Visit me at,, or
          Follow me on Twitter @brucewriter or @ThreePols

          by bmaples on Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:10:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Thx (0+ / 0-)

            Two more interesting points about the chart.  First, the numbers wind up at the same place, but they deviate from month to month.  Secondly, the biggest deviations show up in inflection points.  ADP is quicker to show declines in jobs, and quicker to show increases.  The BLS eventually catches up and they wind up in the same place.

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