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Just wanted to share two things I read in the hope that they lighten the mood just a bit:

From E. J. Dionne,

I was talking with an old friend who is with one of the nonpartisan polling outfits (and who also happens to be a very good and fair-minded pollster). We were discussing the large shifts in some of the polls on the presidential election and the feedback he receives whenever he puts out new numbers that make one side or the other unhappy. He offered an observation so priceless that it needs to be widely shared.

“When you give conservatives bad news in your polls, they want to kill you,” he said. “When you give liberals bad news in your polls, they want to kill themselves.”

I am protecting his identity because I don’t want him to get any additional phone calls. I would only add: Buck up, liberals!

And one "trip down memory lane" from Steve Benen:
But there's a strong case to be made that 2012 looks quite a bit like 2004 -- an incumbent president with a tepid approval rating, facing an electorate open to change and a motivated opposition, takes on a wealthy Massachusetts challenger his party settled on, somewhat grudgingly, after an awkward primary process.

And with that in mind, just for kicks, take a moment to consider some of the polling that came out around eight years ago at this time.

In late September, shortly before the first debate, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll found George W. Bush leading John Kerry by eight points. A week later, shortly after their initial debate, the same pollster found the president's lead had quickly evaporated and the two were tied.

And a week after that, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted exactly eight years ago today and tomorrow, showed Kerry inching past the incumbent president, taking a narrow lead among likely voters, 49% to 48%.

To be sure, it was just one pollster of many, but it was a major national survey showing a nine-point swing to the challenger over the course of about two weeks.

It wasn't long, of course, before the poll swung back, and Bush went on to win a narrow victory. But I covered that race pretty closely, and I don't remember Republicans looking for the nearest window to jump out of eight years ago this week, which only helps reinforce my larger suspicion that the left and right tend to deal with discouraging news in different ways.

Now, I leave it to the psychologists among you to explain the differences.....

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Comment Preferences

  •  RW - 'It's a plot!' LW - 'It's bad randomization' (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gooserock, Wee Mama, CoyoteMarti


  •  Leave it to the Arithmeticians. (0+ / 0-)

    Add up the assets the right has on their side, vs the assets we have on our side.

    Add up the number of countries and the number of years societies have been ruled by an aristocratic elite, vs those ruled by the people as democracies. We've hardly ever had democracies, and at this time most of them around the world are sliding back into the hands of aristocrats. This is the first Presidential election in our history when global corporations have been allowed to campaign against us. That makes the consequences of any development able to be leveraged or buried as never in the past.

    Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean somebody's not coming after you.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 04:26:15 PM PDT

  •  What I found most striking was closing of ranks (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wee Mama, Janie14

    around Romney when he flip-flopped.

    Obama made a comment about SS, and a lot of people here  and our liberal pundit pals on TV screamed about his breaking with the platform, etc.  

    Mitt Romney was trashed by conservatives in the primaries, so he became "severely conservative".  He made a comment about Romneycare and they threatened to withdraw his cash, so he picked Ryan to make up for it.  But now... when the cake is baked, when the ticket is set and fighting for its existence, and Romney goes on national TV and doubles down on Romneycare and throws a bunch of other conservative talking points out the window?  

    Not a peep of protest from the R side.  

    No, it isn't honest.  But it's smart, in this situation.  I'm not saying don't hold the President's feet to the fire, but perhaps we should hold off on the holding until after the election is won.

  •  I remember reading (0+ / 0-)

    about this experiment conducted by psychologists back in the 1960's.  Boy and girl toddlers were presented with an obstacle to surmount, such as a locked safety gate.  After unsuccessful attempts, the girl toddlers would tend to break down and cry while the boy toddlers would keep on trying to open the gate. Don't jump on me ... it may well be that with the strides women have made since the '60s, female toddlers may be as unlikely to give up as their male counterparts.  It's just that the Dem and Repub reactions to bad polls reminded me of this.

    "Valerie, why am I getting all these emails calling me a classless boor?"

    by TLS66 on Tue Oct 09, 2012 at 04:32:14 PM PDT

  •  here's the psychology of what's going on (0+ / 0-)

    with at least one Obama supporter (myself): We Obama supporters had a great September, with week after week of good news followed by more good news, from the conventions to the polls to the Romney gaffes and more polls. In retrospect, it almost seems inevitable that that kind of streak would be almost impossible to maintain right up until election day.

    The debate, however, was the first major disappointing news for Obama supporters in quite a while. Speaking for myself, it seems like after almost a full week of that disappointment, followed by some disappointing sure would be nice to see some good news. It may be coming...but we want it faster...Human psychology is such that when we crave some good news we can sometimes look all over the place to try to find it (i.e. in crosstabs of a poll that shows a possible swing toward Romney, for instance).

    It sure will be nice to see how things shake out after we get past Thursday, Friday and Saturday polling results.
    If the news still looks bad at the point...then it's time for something drastic.

    Something that keeps the optimism alive in me is that...before the debates Rasmussen's daily tracker showed the race pretty much even, much to the dismay (and mockery) of many Obama supporters. And now, after a debate clearly won by Romney, less than a week ago...Rasmussen shows the race tied. That is just one pollster. But it's evidence that things may be settling down.

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