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Nate Silver:

The FiveThirtyEight “now-cast” now pegs Mr. Romney’s bounce as being 3.1 percentage points, compromising between the trackers and the broader group of polls. In addition, Mr. Romney had appeared to gain about one percentage point on Mr. Obama before the debate, so his overall standing has improved by almost four points in October.

However, the “now-cast” put Mr. Obama ahead by about five percentage points in advance of the debate, meaning that Mr. Romney’s gains are not quite enough to have erased Mr. Obama’s advantage entirely.

The strongest evidence that the race is a true dead heat right now is from national polls. The 10 national polls that we added to our database on Tuesday showed an exact tie between the candidates, on average.

Mr. Romney’s numbers are just slightly weaker in the majority of swing state polls, however. In the day just after the debate, Mr. Romney led in five of six polls between the top nine “tipping-point states,” but Mr. Obama has led in 10 of 14 such polls since then.

FWIW, the states remain stronger for Obama than the nationals. perhaps because that's where the campaign spent the money.

I remain a bit skeptical of the large Likely Voter - Registered Voter split in some of the polls, and think the RV might be a more real indicator of the state of the race. Romney's made gains there, but not as dramatically. In any case, razor thin race, at least until we get past debate week polling.

Charlie Cook:

More data are always a good thing, and there should be more reliable surveys--both nationwide and in swing states--released in the next day or so that will make it easier to pinpoint exactly how much Obama fell and Romney gained from the rumble in the Rockies.

Romney desperately needed a break, something to change the trajectory of this race, and clearly he got one in the debate. How much exactly the debate did and how much the surprisingly strong jobs report on Friday offset it will become more clear in the coming days.

Mark Blumenthal:
Gallup released its first polling results on the presidential race among respondents they consider most likely to vote. Among likely voters interviewed over the last week, they show Republican nominee Mitt Romney with a 2-point advantage over President Barack Obama (49 percent to 47 percent). Their results for all registered voters continue to give Obama a 3-percentage point advantage (49 percent to 46 percent), although that margin narrowed by 2 points compared to the previous day.

Separately, however, Gallup noted that interviews conducted Monday and Tuesday nights suggested that Romney's debate performance "may not have a lasting impact."

Nate Cohn:
Viewed collectively, the state and national polls conducted after the debate point toward an extremely close race, with Romney gaining an average of 3.4 points in post-debate polls. There does appear to be a split between the battleground and national polls and perhaps between live interview and automated methods, although those two factors overlap and there are not enough national or live interview surveys to make the comparison with confidence.
NY Times:
After a Pew Research Center poll on Monday that suggested Mr. Romney’s debate performance had helped him erase Mr. Obama’s lead nationally, a Gallup survey released Tuesday showed a similar result, with the candidates statistically tied.

But polls in battleground states appeared to show the race to be back where it was before Mr. Obama went on a run, and Mr. Romney stumbled, after their party conventions, with Mr. Obama for the most part holding slight but shrinking edges in surveys, within their margins of sampling of error.

Politico:
It’s now clear that Mitt Romney got a bounce from the first presidential debate. But pollsters warn that it’s far from certain how big or how lasting such a bounce will be.

The GOP presidential nominee certainly has momentum from his performance in Denver last Wednesday — but most of the gains being attributed to him are the result of a single poll released Monday by the respected Pew Research Center that showed a 12-point swing in Romney’s direction. That’s enough to start the cable talking heads and political scribes chattering but doesn’t necessarily mean a permanent groundswell of support for the Republican.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Bounce (8+ / 0-)

    Sucking at deplomacy, at the 47% statement, at changing positions on womens health, a complete lack of information on his taxes, his jobs plans and how he will cut the deficit brought him down by 5 points and the MSM still said it was a tied race. Now a good show at the debate (which everyone said never made a difference) and suddenly there is a bonce like this and a drop in PBO's numbers.

    Its almost like the media cant wait to knock him down a peg or two.

    I think Jesus meant christian as a verb not a noun

    by rageagnstmach on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 04:37:22 AM PDT

    •  they can't (4+ / 0-)

      after all a blowout would mean less viewers

    •  Beware Gallup. That's a 2004 voter spread. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rageagnstmach, IM, Larsstephens

      It drops off 8 years of demographic shift.

      Fewer Hispanics.

      Fewer young people in need of the Democrat's low-interest policy for student loans.

      More old and white conservatives.

      More churchgoers.

      That's a fundamental shift in the range of 6% of the population for who falls to which slice of the pie.

      The 2006, 2008 and 2010 statistical patterns are being ignored. they have to go all the way back to 2004 to make this work. With the 2008 stats driving the voter-selection model, the Gallup likely-voter number would still have Obama ahead by about 2%.

      Yeah, it's bullshit.

      FOLLOW THE MONEY.

      And Pew looks to have done the same thing. Their stat spread is also no where near the 2008 result. And this is surely a replay of 2008 for what's happening across the board.

      (Follow-ups on mailers are also almost exactly what they were prior to the first debate. More people reading the mailers, but otherwise the same response ratios. We're not sure that anything changed with the debate -- nothing at all.)

      •  Here's Gallup: (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Larsstephens

        GALLUP DAILY
        Oct 6-8, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

        Obama Approval - 53% - +2
        Obama Disapproval - 42% - -2

        Registered Voters

        Obama - 49% - -1
        Romney - 46% - +1

        Likely Voters

        Romney - 49% - +1
        Obama - 47% - -1
        - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

        Obviously, the APPROVAL numbers for Obama went up substantially across the board. This is approval with the 2004 stat selection.

        Romney picked up wayward Republicans, who liked his debate performance. But presidential elections with incumbents are decided by the APPROVALs.

        In 2004, turnout was pitiful for the traditional Democratic blocks and Kerry may have won the voting election anyway, allowing for disparities with exit polls in Florida and Ohio. Kerry won the exit poll election going away. Convert to 2008 for turnouts and this LV result is way, way off.

  •  I hate to be all unskewed polling and all but (9+ / 0-)

    Why does it seem like every recent poll seems to drastically overpoll old Southern white men?

    Not saying, just saying.

  •  Look. (13+ / 0-)

    A lot of folks on here have been saying for months that "the debates don't matter" and the past week has demonstrated that they clearly do.  Low information voters of love their prime-time TV tune into these things and they're the people most likely to be shifted by something they see on the box.  In a base year election a few point swing can play a big role.  

    If you factor in the media's almost criminal desire for a horserace this year, you've got the current state of the race.  A lot of this is hype - but hype, in the modern media environment, has a way of becoming reality.  America likes a winner and they like their presidents to look like winners.  The media loves a strong underdog.  Etc.  

    That being said, excepting Bill Clinton, every sitting president has lost his first debate against his challenger.  So Obama can certainly recover.  But he HAS to recover - both his and Biden's performances must be excellent.  They can't afford to just maintain, they have to win.  I think Biden can do it.  And I hope Obama can as well.  

    No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices. - Edward R. Murrow

    by CrazyHorse on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 04:40:20 AM PDT

    •  but what did pollingshow? (0+ / 0-)

      I never had a sense Reagna was in polling trouble aginst Mondale....BUsh was against Kerry but what of the others?

    •  this debate did, unusually (5+ / 0-)

      then again, no one anticipated such a one sided performance.

      OTOH the negth of the bounce remains uncleat.

      Don't confuse 'debates don't matter' with 'debates can't possibly matter'.

      Anyway, here's more CW that is wrong (the incumbent rule):

      But what was once a law of politics no longer rules.

      In the 2008 and 2010 Senate cycles, 11 incumbents went into Election Day with less than 50 percent of the vote in the poll averages computed by RealClearPolitics — five of them won; six lost. Hardly evidence of an iron law. Five of the six losers were not just garnering less than 50 percent, but were running behind their opponents. (You don’t need a special rule to know incumbents are in trouble when they’re behind.)

      Moreover, all but two of those incumbents gained votes beyond the final RealClearPolitics poll average, adding a mean of 3.4 percentage points. Challengers added an average of 1.2 points. Thus, undecideds not only failed to break to challengers, they were more likely to move to incumbents.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 04:55:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  debates matter in a way (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tb mare, VBeach Dem

      for a lot of voters, this is the one opportunity to see the candidates look presidential, look masterful, face opposition, etc. some people really like that.

      so there is a basic level of performance that has to be met. Obama didn't have to "win," but he had to show up.

      he didn't really show up, and we see the result.

      this is one of the few times the Obama election machine has majorly screwed up. I hope they get it together.

      An ambulance can only go so fast - Neil Young

      by mightymouse on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:45:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  That Obama isn't .... (16+ / 0-)

    ...walking away with this election by now is a real indictment in the stupidity and abject failure of the populace at large.  I know things are tough and all and people are busy but to be so duped by the great wultzer is just sad.  That and Obama NOT using the biggest megaphone to his advantage all along.  People are more willing to talk about thier sex lives than they are thier political lives in the US.

    I guess we get the politicians we deserve.   Are there any European who want to adopt a dissafected middle-aged fat white male.  I'm avalable.  I'll even let you laugh at me with good grace.

    We Glory in war, in the shedding of human blood. What fools we are.

    by delver rootnose on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 04:41:30 AM PDT

    •  They are saying the exact same thing (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SpamNunn, spooks51, auapplemac, VBeach Dem

      over at the conservative blogs.

      The argument goes something like : With this economy, as many people out of work.. gas prices through the roof.. etc. etc.. How can Obama's approval numbers be anywhere near 50%??  And why isn't Romney winning in a landslide?

      I find the gap amusing..

    •  No, times have not been good (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      delver rootnose, CrissieP, VBeach Dem

      the sense among my liberal elite circle ( snark ) is that Obama never really sold himself and was not really a good communicator; and he always went for half measures rather than the bold moves people want to see, because he wanted to actually accomplish something. We were wrong in 06 and 08 to think the rightwing would just go away; they are extremely formidable. Obama would have had to have this economy rumbling along a positive track to have a somehwat easy time of it. ANd he is still Black, and yes that matters.Guy faced tough odds all along, but people were willing to cut him some slack. And then he just didn't show up for the debate. Why will become oneof them great tales in American politics. I have been around a long time, and Mitt's got momentum. Two things happen at this stage; he either builds on it to win ( and it won't be as close as people think ) or Obama gets the squeaker because he's the incumbent.  That's how i see it. Right after the debate I said we will see numbers deteriorate steadily, to the point where the swing states will tighten, then tighten more, then people will be holding onto the electoral college, and so far that is what has happened IMO. We need better polling later this week to really see, not ready to throw in the towel and I live in NJ, so O will carry here no matter what.I'm no optimist. Studies show pessimists are better able to read reality, and that's a curse.I do not know anyone who has changed their minds, but I am in NJ around teachers, psychologists, social workers, and Blacks and Hispanics all day. Obama will win my state and county easily.

      •  I don't think this election.. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mightymouse, Bush Bites

        ...will be decided by the people who are undecided now as much as it will be a base turnout election.  So what Obama did was basically show he didn't care if he won the debate so why should I care about going to the polls.  He looked like he didn't really want it.

        We Glory in war, in the shedding of human blood. What fools we are.

        by delver rootnose on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:13:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Actually (0+ / 0-)

        The polls show 2 really good days for Romney, and then a return to pre-debate levels. Not enough data yet to confirm that Romney's bounce disappeared again. But that is what the data we have shows. We will know by this weekend, how much of Romney's bounce remains.

    •  aint that the truth. the past week and a half (7+ / 0-)

      has been a real eye opener. Or rather, confirming my deepest suspicions about this country.

      50% stupidity in the populace is too high for me.

      For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

      by mdmslle on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:25:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Considering the weakness of the economy. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      splintersawry

      Pres Obama is doing far better than should be expected.

      The most important way to protect the environment is not to have more than one child.

      by nextstep on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 08:10:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  that is simply not true (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Larsstephens

        considering the economy (growing, not shrinking) he is exactly where you would expect him to be.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 09:19:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  GDP growth not keeping up with population growth (0+ / 0-)

          so to the population the economy is shrinking.  Real median personal income continues to decline.

          Labor participation rate is the lowest in over 30 years.

          The most important way to protect the environment is not to have more than one child.

          by nextstep on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 09:57:59 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I was dumbfounded by the stupidity (0+ / 0-)

      of the electorate when Bush was voted in. Anyone with half a mind could see the devastation that would ensue (remember The Onion's totally accurate article following his election with the headline, "Our long national nightmare of peace and prosperity is over"?). But then four years later, when we had the experience of those four years, and people re-elected him?

      I don't like the term low-information voter, but I'm afraid that that's the vast majority of the electorate (probably on both sides, to be fair).

  •  I note that Teaheadists (6+ / 0-)

    aren't foaming at the mouth this week about polls. But just last week they were all skewed and wrong and being manipulated by liberals to discourage GOP voter turnout.

  •  This is sickening!! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    live1, mightymouse

    ...like a fumble at the goal line, when you're about to go up by 2 TDs.

    But resolve and hard work are the only things needed.  Sure you can yell and scream....for a few minutes (days)....but there is alot of time and alot of work to be done, and 3 debates left as well.

    Romney's got confidence.  He thinks he can win.  So what?

    So, he's got the ball back on his own 1-yard line, in a 1-score game.

    But enough about sport....

    Aldus Shrugged : The Antidote to Ayn Rand. ***Buy ALDUS SHRUGGED on amazon, and ALL royalties will be donated directly to Democrats in contentious Downballot races. @floydbluealdus1

    by Floyd Blue on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 04:42:55 AM PDT

  •  I refuse to get (15+ / 0-)

    deterred .......GOTV!..

    The GOP hate me! I'm black, a woman, disabled veteran, divorced mother and liberal. THEY SUCK!

    by secret38b on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 04:43:42 AM PDT

  •  Gallup's LV-RV is out of line (4+ / 0-)

    I've always said, poll everybody in the U.S. and the Democrats would control everything, poll the registered voters, and we win most everything, poll the people who actually get off their asses and vote, and we lose.

    But Nate uses about a 2% difference between LV and RV and that seems reasonable.  Gallup has a 5% difference so I'll be splitting the the difference between their LV and RV numbers to get a feel of where the voters actually are.

  •  It's a good thing the race is decided by... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cosette, tb mare, IM

    ...aggregate popular vote instead of Electoral Votes generated by each state.

    .....Oh wait!

    When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

    by Egalitare on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 04:45:16 AM PDT

  •  OFA Concord (12+ / 0-)

    when I got there last night the building was full of supporters there for a training class to GOTV.
    Everyone one was smiling & Ready to get to work on these last 27 days of the campaign.

    The staff I see everyday is hard at work !
    I look forward to going there every night.

    Go Obam Biden

  •  from bounce to bumble (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    duhban

    who says the GOP is not consistent?  After the debate, Mitt's VP choice bounced off the stage in an interview because of an "unfair" question.  To wit: he had expounded on how the Rust Belt needed to be revitalized and that would come from the private sector, i.e. churches, private industry, private charities etc with no government intervention.
    He was then asked how his tax cuts would stimulate this sort of private sector philanthropy and he stormed off the stage saying the question was unrelated to his response    

  •  I am inclined (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    live1, Steve Magruder, DSPS owl

    to wait because society is so NOW! oriented to see how things are a week later. At this point the polls have reached noise level. I know that Romney gained, but I'm not certain by how much or how long that will last. He's back to flip floping on postions again.

    I still think that if the president can hit Romney with a tax punch in front of that town hall, it could be fatal. And I think the public is ready for the president to punch back.

    The Spice must Flow!

    by Texdude50 on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 04:47:36 AM PDT

  •  The overall trend (14+ / 0-)

    that I see from everything that has happened so far is that non college educated white women are the swing voters in this election.

    Obama had them going into the debate, they then swung away from him after it sharply, and are now slowly trickling back to Obama.

    This makes sense to me, not pollster/media conspiracies.

    •  Immediate reactions (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Steve Magruder

      are impulsive. Reflection brings back all the arguments over the summer. Plus, I've been looking at the favorability and approval numbers - those are in good standing.

      It was a bad debate, but the campaign didn't collapse.

      The Spice must Flow!

      by Texdude50 on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 04:56:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  women worry me. the polls (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mightymouse

      have them all over the place.

      i got yelled at for saying a woman is dumb if she votes for romney, but she isnt smart.

      and i am a woman- we have dumb women too -unfortunately

      "With malice toward none, with charity for all..." -Abraham Lincoln not a modern republican

      by live1 on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 04:59:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  one bad debate can be handled (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        brooklynbadboy, tb mare, USA Driver

        and Obama still win, and hopefully Democrats all over win.

        but any more of that shit and we have a real problem.

        An ambulance can only go so fast - Neil Young

        by mightymouse on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:48:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Swing voters "try on" positions (3+ / 0-)

        I learned this from my years supervising call center interviewers. My shop happen to be one of a handful tasked with tracking the Nation's mood on "HillaryCare" for some portion of the Medical Industrial Complex (Big Health Insurance probably) and we also did the daily tracking for the Minnesota Governor's race that resulted in Jesse Ventura winning. In the movement in both polls, I saw the eventual swing voters "try on" one candidate or position, then another. With Minnesota Governor, Ventura was a distant 3rd more than 6 weeks out, was still 3rd 4 weeks out and came on like gangbusters in the last 2 weeks of the race. In the beginning, most of the "trying on" by swing voters was switching between Skip Humphrey and Norm Coleman, at least according to our daily tracking, but 5 weeks out you could see Ventura grabbing and holding onto a percent of the sample almost nightly.

        In short, swing voters tend to want to declare a "1st impressions feel" then weigh the ramifications and implications. They don't have the same baseline values that partisan voters do, so they have no other frame of reference to evaluate candidates. It really is like trying on a suit or dress, then having a look in the 3-panel mirror and/or have shopping buddies give you input. You don't buy every dress or suit you try on.

        Just my perspective on this.

        When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

        by Egalitare on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 06:15:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  It would be interesting to see if this was true (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Steve Magruder

      Earlier in the race, we had several polls showing no gender gap, and then several showing a very large one, and if I recall correctly, nothing in between. There was a back and forth whether the War on Women Offensive was a success or failure. I'm not exactly sure how that could be.

      I find it very unlikely that tens of millions of women could abandon someone they supported for four years without a major sexist gaffe that completely shook their foundation.

      But something strange appears to be going on. I pray you are right and that everything returns to normal soon enough knocks on wood

      When we were ahead, people at DailyKos said to fight like we were behind. When we were behind, people at DailyKos said to give up.

      by NoFortunateSon on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 04:59:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  How long have you been on Pew's payroll? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      IM

      Eh, comrade?

      (snark)

      Repubs started up the car, hit the throttle and sent it over the cliff, and now they're complaining that the black guy hasn't fixed it fast enough.

      by Bush Bites on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:12:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  it's not voters swinging this way or that (0+ / 0-)

      Polls reflect voter enthusiasm. Polls not weighted for party ID (Pew) swung a lot harder than polls that are weighted for party ID (Ras). It's also telling that the RAND poll (which polls the same sample over and over) saw virtually no change at all.

      •  ??? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        yellowdog, Egalitare

        I watch the Rand poll every day. It was sharply down after the debate, then gradually leveled off. It is still, as of today, tighter than it was before the debate.

        Are you watching the Rand poll or just reading about it?

        •  Romney dropped on 10/4 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stroszek

          Comparing 10/3 to 10/9, I see Romney up not quite 1 point, Obama down about 1/3 point. I could live with "virtually no change at all." Certainly nothing like Pew.

          I don't think I would say that voters aren't swinging, but I think Stroszek has a point.

          The only meta position I've signed on for is that I am opposed to poll birtherism.

          Election protection: there's an app for that!
          Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

          by HudsonValleyMark on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:55:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  cool poll analysis, BBB (0+ / 0-)

          If RAND were a one-day tracker, the marginal movement would be concerning. However, the trend in RAND is, as you said, a brief and (relative to RAND) "sharp" uptick for Romney, followed by leveling.

          In a 7-day tracker, real movement will be represented by consistent gains over the 7-day period. An uptick followed by immediate leveling while the uptick day remains in the tracker, in fact, indicates a blip followed immediately by days that look a lot like pre-blip days.

          If RAND is still where it is now after the Friday results drop off, feel free to condescend to me. Until then, you can lecture me about how brilliantly well Romney's post-Libya worked out for him.

  •  How come none of these op-eds and articles talk (9+ / 0-)

    about how Romney got that bounce largely because he lied his way through his performance?  He flat-out lied?  That "bounce" is based on falsehoods and misleading statements.  How come that's not taken into account in evaluating the numbers?

    That's one more thing to add to my long list of small problems. --my son, age 10

    by concernedamerican on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 04:53:46 AM PDT

  •  Outside of our bubble . . . (8+ / 0-)

    the economy is crap, food prices are starting to hurt, people are still losing their homes . . . it's still a lot like four years ago (if you aren't a Wall Street type, that is).  Hardly any real health care benefits have kicked in (2014 being the magic Safe Date).

    It's been a mediocre four years.  I think the close race reflects that.

    I can’t decide who’s cuter – the dead guy with the arrows in his chest, or the guy in the ditch with the seeping wound. -- Game of Thrones (Heard on Set)

    by prodigal on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 04:54:38 AM PDT

    •  Maybe is a function of where I live (0+ / 0-)

      but I can see things improving. Things were GRIM four years ago at this time and got worse heading into 2009.

      Are things great now, no I think of great as 1996 -2000. But things are moving in the right direction. The recovery would be far better if the Jobs Act had been passed and local/state governments hadn't slashed jobs.

      The Spice must Flow!

      by Texdude50 on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:32:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Can you explain why you would think that? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jerry J
    I remain a bit skeptical of the large Likely Voter - Registered Voter split in some of the polls, and think the RV might be a more real indicator of the state of the race.

    These are the times that try our patience, and our relationships with Muppet characters.

    by SpamNunn on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 04:55:00 AM PDT

  •  But Nate Silver still gives (0+ / 0-)

    Romney only a 28% chance of winning.

    If Romney wins this, it will, if nothing else, put to rest the notion that Nate Silver is anything but a hack and not some prediction god.

    •  and if Obama wins... (9+ / 0-)

      then what? Obama is still the favorite, my friend, despite the one bad week.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:00:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  btw, will you be back if Obama wins admitting (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cosette, duhban, kitebro

      Nate's pretty sharp?  ;-P

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:01:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  depends on Nate's final prediction (0+ / 0-)

        As you know, I think Nate's model is for shit.

        If he keeps his percent chance of winning for Obama high like it is now, and then Obama wins, I will (grudgingly) admit perhaps his model has some worth.

        However.. I think Nate will, as usual, show Obama's numbers plummeting as the election draws close so he can be close no matter what the outcome.

        •  since his model is based on polling (4+ / 0-)

          if his model closes, it's because the polls do. In fact, the difference between the 'nowcast' and the Nov 6 prediction is economic factors in the Nov 6 version, which go away as we get closer to election day and the two merge.

          But at this point in the election cycle, it's all about the polls, including the state polls.

          Factors to consider?

          LV vs RV
          reliability of pollster (Selzer ≠ Rasmussen ± We Ask America)
          state polls in the battlegrounds (esp OH, VA and FL)

          Don't get your hostility to Nate. Might as well rail at the voters.

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:15:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't get the hostility either. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Jerry J

            I think his opinions of the polls are great.

            But I still haven't figured out the worth of Nate's model or, rather, how it's more valuable than traditional polling aggregates.

            Just seems rube goldberg-ish.

            Repubs started up the car, hit the throttle and sent it over the cliff, and now they're complaining that the black guy hasn't fixed it fast enough.

            by Bush Bites on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:21:19 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  "based on polling" (0+ / 0-)

            except some polling outfits are negatively weighted and some positively weighted and some have "special sauce" applied.. and if it's Tuesday some voodoo potion is added.

            I don't have hostility as much as derision.  I think of Nate as more of a huckster and find it amusing how so many around here take his predictions as gospel.

    •  hey, Jerry, it's not just Nate (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LaurenMonica, Vicky

      you forget that sometimes, but the oddsmakers agree with him.

      http://www.predictwise.com/...

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:09:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't buy into that prediction crap (0+ / 0-)

        as you well know.  Like Nate's predictions, those numbers will tighten up to be nearly 50-50 as election day draws near.

        As I see it right now, Obama has a slight lead and will likely win.

        It's what I've been saying for months, actually.  I don't think the race has changed much at all.. and both sides have collectively spent hundreds of millions of dollars for.. nothing!

        •  heh (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Jerry J

          in that we totally agree. ;-)

          But are you not confusing apples and oranges? Basically, you agree with nate and the oddsmakers (and us!) that Obama's the favorite,  the "number" (i.e. "x" chance to win, between 60-75) is willingness to commit to that prediction (a 51-49 vote).

          So why are you down on them?

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:32:11 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  So, you think.... (0+ / 0-)
          ...both sides have collectively spent hundreds of millions of dollars for.. nothing!
          ....if one side spent all the money and the other side didn't, the result would be the same?

          Repubs started up the car, hit the throttle and sent it over the cliff, and now they're complaining that the black guy hasn't fixed it fast enough.

          by Bush Bites on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:35:20 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Not for nothing. (0+ / 0-)

          Spending - even stupid spending - is good for the economy, especially when the people spending the money have enough to burn.

          "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

          by SueDe on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:39:42 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  then go drop 1000 dollars on romney (0+ / 0-)

      in intrade, you'd be close to an instant millionare

    •  Nate's model looks back 30 days so pre -debate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      johnthorpe

      numbers are still in his projection. If Obama's polls improve soon Nate's projection may stay at 70% chance or so for a win but if Romney holds at a tie or improves on that you will see Nate's projection fall for Obama. Nate does science. We should value that even when it hurts and shit this stuff hurts like a mother fucker right now....but to wander off science into fantasy and conspiracy or whatever will land us in the same spot in hell that is reserved for those Texas Education Department evolution deniers.

      •  This x 1000 (0+ / 0-)

        We should apply to ourselves the same standard we expect from the other side...or we're no better than they are.

        And they're monstrous little shitweasels with no idea how to make their way in the world without bullying, cheating, lying, and crying about how hard it is to do math and science.

    •  Nate isn't making predictions (0+ / 0-)

      He developed a model that predicts things. He's not really standing there predicting anything. He lets the math do the talking.

      He uses the same kind of system we use when we play poker. And if you play poker, you know that 75% to 25% doesn't mean the 75% always wins. It means 75% of the time, over many many many hands, that hand will win.

      I get a lot of bad beats, despite being on the 75% side of things. That's just how stats work.

      It certainly doesn't make him a hack, any more than it would make the deck of cards a hack.

  •  Okay, thanks Greg (4+ / 0-)

    I appreciate APR every morning. When the news doesn't feel that great it fires me up to go find something to do to help President Obama get reelected - and there are plenty of opportunities even if you live in a red state. 4 weeks from yesterday - get busy!

  •  Obama will be on Tom Joyner Show at 8am they said (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cosette, mightymouse

    the first question will be: 'What happened during the debate?'

    "Rick Perry talks a lot and he's not very bright. And that's a combination I like in Republicans." --- James Carville

    by LaurenMonica on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 04:58:25 AM PDT

  •  Can't trust Mitt (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cosette, Steve Magruder

    There is no question that this election offers two competing visions for America. The Republican ticket refuses to come clean on their proposals and tell Americans the truth. You cannot argue that Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan and the Republican Party truly believe this country is in decline and must be made a smaller and weaker country to appease the Tea Party radicals that want to destroy our government. Mitt thinks that success can only, translate to wealth, from fortunes to the number of cars or homes you own, that if you haven't gotten rich by now than something is wrong with you and you don;t deserve a shot at the American Dream. This is a message paid for by the rich secret donors and corporate money men backing Romney's campaign,   -   progressive

    •  They never come clean... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Steve Magruder

      Christie evaded his plan all through the campaign...then went rightwing nuts on us ( and I predicted it ) and browbeat the conservadems in trenton into submission. Things also suck in NJ but Chris is getting blown by local 24/7....and he has not fone a good fuckingthing in NJ yet!

  •  Social issues popping up and Mitt is a-wafflin. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cosette, tb mare
  •  was over at huff po- yeah i know it stinks (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cosette

    but the righties are all thrilled over the Libya tragedy
    they are actually saying how could anyone vote for a liar. i need to stop going to huff

    "With malice toward none, with charity for all..." -Abraham Lincoln not a modern republican

    by live1 on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:01:25 AM PDT

  •  Any evidence that Mitt's performance... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ratcityreprobate

    ....stopped a potential downballot landslide?

    Repubs started up the car, hit the throttle and sent it over the cliff, and now they're complaining that the black guy hasn't fixed it fast enough.

    by Bush Bites on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:02:11 AM PDT

    •  there was never a potential landslide (0+ / 0-)

      in the offing.. so, the answer is no.

      •  Not sure about that. (2+ / 0-)

        There was talk of the Senate staying Dem and a very remote chance of the House flipping.

        If both those things happened on top of an Obama win, it would have been a landslide.

        Repubs started up the car, hit the throttle and sent it over the cliff, and now they're complaining that the black guy hasn't fixed it fast enough.

        by Bush Bites on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:30:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  you likely mean 'wave' (0+ / 0-)

          not so much landslide, and no evidence for a wave election.

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:33:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  So we're fighting for four more years of gridlock. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Jerry J

            Gotta love our system.

            Repubs started up the car, hit the throttle and sent it over the cliff, and now they're complaining that the black guy hasn't fixed it fast enough.

            by Bush Bites on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:37:59 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I guess we live in two different worlds (0+ / 0-)

            In the world of data I am looking at, we're gaining ground in all the senate races that were expected to be losses, regardless of how Obama did. We're competitive in the Dakotas, for fuck's sake.

            The House data shows +1 (minimum, despite recent troubles) in the generic House ballot.

            Obama, pre-debate, was set for over 300 EVs. Post-debate, he's still winning in most of the swing states (putting him over 270 and probably over 300) despite the bad debate data still simmering in the pot.

            Other than the Democrat donkey symbol giving you a quick handjob under the table, what more could you have asked for in this election cycle?

            •  ? (0+ / 0-)

              in the world of data we both are looking at, there's little data to suggest the D's will take the House. Generic ballots are pretty useless unless overwhelmingly one sided, and clearly that is not the case.

              It looks like we will keep the Senate. My view is that the Senate has a great deal to do with picking bad R candidates, but the House is a harder hill to climb.

              "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

              by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 02:50:56 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Why are you here? (0+ / 0-)

        You don't strike me as the target audience of this website.

        You never have anything positive to say about Democrats.

        You are the very first to repeat things reported only in the fringes of right-wing circles.

        You repeatedly dismiss inconvenient evidence against your claims in a very "i'm white and right, so your evidence can't be true if it disproves what I say" way.

        You come off as the man who'd have three beers, get a little red-faced, and try to pick a fight with men who aren't your size...and then you'd cry to the police that this mean little short man knocked you out cold.

        In other words, you're Rush Limbaugh without the money, Sean Hannity without the hair, and George Bush without the intellect.

        Piss off.

  •  Clinton: Wow! Here's Ol Moderate Mitt...where you (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cosette, Vicky

    been all these years boy?

  •  47% is over (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jerry J

    Obama needs to move beyond the 47% comment. It's old news now, and likely fully accounted for in the polls. It has been appologized for and disavowed by Romney, and there is probably little more benefit to be had by flailing away on it.  It makes Romney's case that there's no there, there.   I cringed when I saw the Big Bird ad.  Neither ad is a good reason to trust or like Obama. My gut is that the electorate has already moved on from these issues, saying, "yes, he said it but he appologized for it. Its over."

    Lets spend those dollars giving people a reason to love Obama, rather than hate Romney.  The most fleeting support Obama can have is from people who see him as the lesser of a pair of bad choices.  

  •  The first debate lifted Romney up to President O. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    v2aggie2, Steve Magruder

    The commentariat could have called President Obama the winner we still would have seen a tightening. I very much believe it.

    The format made Romney's aggressiveness and misinformation even stronger than it would have been in a normal format and from a Democratic point of view, they should never, ever, never agree to that format and then walk in with some neutral, safe strategy.

    I hope to see President Obama armed with the ammo to counter "ladder" Romney. The Democratic Party needs to get rid of any fear of the right wing noise machine. It ain't going away and we have every opportunity to throw, strategic wrenches into its workings.

  •  I was feeling sympathy for Romneyshambles and (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    One Opinion

    worrying what they would do something drastic to win no matter what. apparently I prefer it close even though I can't figure out how so many fall for this ridiculous liar.  

    the debate line that proves the evangelical leadership is willfully blind was 'all God's children'.  If Carter, Gore or Obama said such a thing, we'd hear about their blasphemy.  (I purposely left out Clinton because everyone knows he is godless.) Let any Bush or any conservative say it, and it's all ho hum that just means we are all God's creation.  

    now I feel sorry for the 99% again.  we will be the sore losers struggling to keep our jobs, homes and striving against all odds while the rakers and takers consume the last dregs of hope.

    God help us if we can't even recognize and vote for the only humble, honest man of character in this election.

  •  Obama said on Tom Joyner that he knows he screwed (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mightymouse, Vicky, brooklynbadboy, tb mare, IM

    up in the first debate, thinks Biden will be terrific tomorrow and said 'I got this'

    "Rick Perry talks a lot and he's not very bright. And that's a combination I like in Republicans." --- James Carville

    by LaurenMonica on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:19:00 AM PDT

  •  You want to know the difference between how (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tb mare

    Democrats and Republicans are treated in the media?  Compare and contrast the coverage of Obama's "lack of bounce from the convention" and the coverage of Romney's upturn after the debates.

    Also, too.  If Obama doesn't get some steel in his backbone and call out Romney as a liar then the is going to continue to have problems after these debates.

    I'm living in an age that calls darkness light.

    by electricgrendel on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:21:37 AM PDT

  •  That chart tells me it's been close before... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Magruder

    ...and Obama's always pulled away again.  It's always a better bet that things will be the same than that they'll be different.

    Romney '12: Berlusconi without the sex and alcohol!

    by Rich in PA on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:21:49 AM PDT

  •  What worries me a little is (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Magruder

    how ready the MSM will be for another Obama comeback story if he does OK but not great in the next debate. I hope it would be like Bush in 04' where he lost the second debate to Kerry but improved enough that it stopped the bleeding from first debate. But some of the coverage of Romney's bounce seems almost gleeful now. All of the owners on the networks as well as most of the executives and public faces (Wolf, Candy, etc.) are part of the 1%. They will get tax breaks if Romney is elected and will probably pay more if Obama wins. I wonder how much that will influence their coverage.

  •  good work President O (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dianamherrera, mightymouse

    In one night you managed to let your opponent wipe out months of work that we did knocking doors, etc...

    I am not so sure that we can change minds now.  It's going to be hard.

    Of course, thank the fucking media (msnbc included) for cementing the picture that romney was more presidential.

    "The real wealth of a nation consists of the contributions of its people and nature." -- Rianne Eisler

    by noofsh on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:24:26 AM PDT

    •  Noo noofsh, good work you hysterical handwriging (4+ / 0-)

      panic ridden "supporters".
      Obama has one bad night and you wet your bed " it's All Oveerrrrr!!"... Sickening.
      Romney was a walking disaster for 3 months straight and conservatives fought like the devil to the point of creating their own alternate reality, all to keep their spirits up.
      Dems?  Ruuun for the Hiiillls!!
      Ugh.

      •  I really admire conservatives in one way (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Inameli, Steve Magruder

        They never give up.  They scream and yell and holler their support tirelessly.  They close ranks around their own and set their lances to receive charges.  If they're a dozen meters behind with twenty to go in the race, they don't pull up, they put their heads down and run as hard as they can.  That's why we compare them to zombies, or the movie monster you think is dead, only to rise again.  And if we ever do defeat them, they don't sulk and cry, they come back for the next round and keep punching.  

        Us?  We're up 4-0 in the eighth inning, and the other team hits a 3-run homer.  Too many of us whimper, wet ourselves, and throw ourselves in the dirt, trying our hardest to concede the game.  Some of us try and take our bats and go home.  None of those people see that we still have a one-run lead, another half-inning to get some insurance runs, and only a few more outs to get for the win.

        It's up to the rest of us... who understand the value of dogged persistence, of fighting for our ideals even when things look dark, of never giving up... to come in and close out the game.  

      •  Noo inameli, not hysterical just realistic (0+ / 0-)

        If you ever did any campaign work, and I doubt you did because you likely are a troll, you know it isn't easy to flip people back.  But we will still try.  I am just being realistic that we have our work cut for us now.

        "The real wealth of a nation consists of the contributions of its people and nature." -- Rianne Eisler

        by noofsh on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:50:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  If it's not easy to flip people back (0+ / 0-)

          Then explain the wildly swinging gender gap. Some polls have it as no gap, some have a large gap in our favor.

          If people can't change their minds again and again, then the only rational answer is those polls are wrong at some point.

          We know from history that Democrats enjoy a sizeable gender gap in women voters.

          So which outcome do you subscribe to:

          1. Democrats saw their gender gap close to zero at the precise time that Republicans went on the offensive against every issue traditionally supported by female voters

          2. A large bloc of female voters can't make up their minds (negating your theory that voters don't easily flip -- under this theory, this bloc has gone back and forth at least three times now)

          3. The polls are shit. The polls that are shit, BTW, are the ones that show no gender gap (otherwise point 1 is the outcome) and therefore Romney isn't as close as some have made him out to be.

          Pick one.

  •  GOTV (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Magruder, One Opinion

    Basically, working.  That hasn't changed.

    Barack Obama for President '12

    by v2aggie2 on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:35:47 AM PDT

  •  We need to keep two thoughts in the head at once (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tb mare, IM

    1. Obama fucked up in the first debate, as he has before, by being too nice, professorial and spouting all that bipartisan bullshit. He should have attacked Romney and stood up for progressive ideas and principles. He should have defended Obamacare and other policies, from day one. Politics is a bullfight not an academic seminar.

    2. Obama will probably still win this, and we must do everything we can to help him.

    But Dems should learn the lesson from 1. From Dukakis to Kerry to Obama we nominate mealy mouthed professors instead of clear spoken fighters. I want a fighter the next time. Someone who is unapologetic about what conservatism is really about (see my sig).

    Conservatism = greed, hate, fear and ignorance

    by Joe B on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:41:59 AM PDT

  •  I don't buy that this is all from the debate (0+ / 0-)

    something else, probably several something elses, are going on.

  •  The post debate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IM

    state polling average projects to a Romney lead of -.1.06.  Now right leaning pollsters are effecting this average: of the 28 state polls taken entirely since the debate, 7 are by Rasmussen, 4 are by Gravis and 3 by We Ask America.  

    I don't agree with Nate: when I look at the post debate polling I don't see an Obama lead.  Nor do the last few days of state polling look all that different from the 10/4 pollling.  In the 11 state polls released on the 8th, Romney leads by .263.

    The 5 day moving average (shown below) still shows Obama with a lead, but tomorrow it will turn negative (This reflects some polling with predebate numbers still in them).

    The evidence to me is pretty consistent: we are behind by about half a point.

    Photobucket

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 05:57:45 AM PDT

    •  so, we are behind (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude

      I think we have to accept now that we are the underdog and fight hard the next few weeks to gain a couple of percent back.

      "The real wealth of a nation consists of the contributions of its people and nature." -- Rianne Eisler

      by noofsh on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 06:51:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Face it! The forces of evil will spend millions (0+ / 0-)

    in the next few weeks to try and buy this election.  I would like to think that at least 51% of Americans who will vote are THINKING people who can see past the slick, negative commercials - or at least be so sick of them that they retaliate by voting in their own best interest instead of voting the way the "masters" want them to vote.

    http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e236/BBob218/bob.gif

    by BBobMI on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 06:06:02 AM PDT

  •  recent history shows how tenuous Obama's (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Magruder, One Opinion

    support is with many voters.  GOTV "stroking" and media and campaign appearances reinforcement of the key messages in The States That Matter should turn that around at least in part.  Bottom line is that Mitt is still hiding his taxes, supporting changing Medicare to vouchers, does not care about people like us, wants to lower taxes for billionaires and is an out of touch gazillionaire - when voters are reminded of these "truths" his recent bounce will subside.

  •  All this talk of polls, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KayCeSF

    Just yesterday I read a diary, then a Rolling Stones, Matt Taibbi article about how the focus on polls, as opposed to the issues, is detrimental to our democracy.

    •  I read a poll that said all this talk about (0+ / 0-)

      issues distracts from the presidential campaign.

      Issues never get covered, whether it's an election year or not.

      Biggest joke is reporters complain about style over substance - and then they cover style.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 09:21:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm going to keep posting this image (0+ / 0-)

    from time to time, to give us a little shot of hope & inspiration.

    I made this a while ago, inspired by the campaign, but I think its more relevant than ever in its message. Feel free to repost is you like, print out, facebook, twitter, whatever.

    On flickr

    http://www.flickr.com/...

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