What debate? Obama’s basically in the same position in this NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll as he was pre-debate:
1. The three polls, conducted Oct. 7-9,
2. Obama was ahead in Virginia 48/46 now behind 48/47 but Quinnipiac shows him up 51/46
3. Florida before the debate, Obama was 47/ 46 percent. Now, it’s still Obama 48/ 47 but the University of North Florida poll finds Obama up 49/45
4. Ohio, Obama up 51/45 was 51/43
“One factor that may have pulled the party ID more heavily toward Democrats in this poll was early voting. One-in-five respondents (18 percent) said they have already voted, and, of those, almost two-thirds (63 percent) said they voted for Obama.Couple that with these great Quinnipiac findings that were posted by:
By way of methodology, last week there was no question about absentee voting in the Ohio survey. It had not yet started. … Those who said they voted absentee in the past week, since absentee voting started in Ohio, are overwhelmingly Democratic and they voted for the president by a wide margin. This can account for a difference in party identification among likely voters because last week they would have been ‘likely voters’ and this week because absentee voting had started, they are ‘definite voters.’
We’re in good shape.