Norm Coleman, John Boehner and their right wing extremist cronies must be crying in their cognac today.
Despite spending millions on misleading and false ads attacking former Congressman Rick Nolan, recent internal and public polls show the 4th generation Ranger leading incumbent Tea Party Rep. Chip Cravaack in the race for 8th district congress. Like rats abandoning a sinking ship, Coleman's American Action Network (AAN) and Boehner's Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) are now directing resources away from Cravaack to races they actually have a chance of winning.
AAN and CLF recently announced millions in new expenditures for hotly contested congressional races across the country. Both groups have already spent millions in support of Chip Cravaack, so it was surprising to see that the AAN has allocated a measly $90,000 in additional expenditures while the CLF is not putting any more money at all into the race. So why is the 8th congressional district race between Cravaack and Nolan no longer a priority?
Recent polls may tell the story.
The first public poll in the race released Wednesday night shows former Congressman Nolan leading incumbent Cravaack 46 -45%, and an internal poll released by the Nolan campaign Thursday morning shows Nolan leading 48 -44%. These results mirror a recent poll by the DCCC and one from House Majority PAC released on 30 August. Nolan's lead is within the margin of error, showing the race in a statistical dead heat.
One must always view polls with caution in a district like the 8th. Distrust of outsiders and rather parochial voting habits can somewhat skew results. However, solid polls do provide a good general overview of the status of the race. In this case, both internal and public polls yield the same results:
1. Cravaack doesn't break over 45%
2. Nolan is gaining momentum despite the incessant barrage of misleading and false attack ads.
Of particular note is that even with the margin of error, incumbent Cravaack can't break 50%.
Furthermore, the deafening silence from Cravaack and his right wing friends tells us the results of the internal and public polls are credible. Neither Cravaack nor the RCCC have released results of their own internal polls, no doubt because they reveal similar results. More importantly, these recent polls reflect what close observers of the race are seeing: despite the furious onslaught of false and misleading attack ads, Nolan is continuing to gain momentum and Cravaack is floundering.
Clearly, Coleman and Boehner see the race the same way, and are directing their resources elsewhere because they know that Chip Cravaack's campaign is a sinking ship that can't be saved.
While this is great news, Nolan is still being out spent by Cravaack and right wing extremists like Sheldon Adelson and the election is not over by any means. We can get rid of this Tea Party union buster, but we need your help. A contribution to Nolan for Congress will be the best investment you make this cycle. Please send whatever you can. Thank you!