Skip to main content

U.S. President Barack Obama arrives at San Francisco International Airport to continue a three-day campaign swing in California and Ohio, October 8, 2012.   REUTERS/Larry Downing
Obama's nadir, and still he leads.
Ready for some ugly? This is the TPM polling composite today, compared to just before the first presidential debate:

The bad news is obvious. President Barack Obama took a serious hit in the national polling, and a serious, but smaller, hit in the battleground states. The good news is that his previous lead was big enough that only Colorado has flipped over to Mitt Romney, giving Obama a healthy 323-215 lead in the Electoral College. The other good news is that the daily trackers indicate a fading bounce. Gallup should be really interesting the next two days as last Thursday and Friday roll off their average.

Also, I've kept in the plethora of fly-by-night GOP pollsters who have proliferated late this cycle. I figure having them push the averages down lower than what credible polling suggests gives us a good worst-case scenario.

But for now, we face battleground polling mostly taken over those brutal post-debate days, and the movement was dramatic. Let's compare both candidate's numbers before and after the debate. First Romney:

A week ago there was just a single state in which Romney was above 46 percent, and about half he was in the low 40s. After the debate, he is over 46 percent in all but two. His share of support has gone up an average of 2.6 points. Ironically, his national support went up just 1.7 percent, suggesting he gained more in the States That Matter than nationally.

Now Obama:

Obama suffered an average loss of 1.5 points in the battleground states, compared to 4.4. in the national polling. He's still above 46 percent everywhere, and of course, still has more than Romney in all of these states except for Colorado.

Interestingly, this was the best-case scenario for both individual candidates—Romney gained more where it mattered, while Obama lost least where it mattered.

Romney's problem remains the same one he's always had—he's still losing and faces a difficult electoral map. And if he can't take the lead now, after a major Obama stumble, when can he take a lead? Seemingly, only if Job Biden and Obama continue stinking it up in the debates. Absent that, the polling will show bigger Obama leads in next week's battleground polling.

Originally posted to kos on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 10:45 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site